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Iranian Chill Thread

We'll see what happens but personally i do not trust at all the narrative that no one in IRGC high rankings didn't knew what Hamas was going to do and that IRGCQF was surprised, and not knowing what to do after it
Honestly been staying out of discussions for the most part because to be fair I may not always come off knowing many things regarding Iran in everything but when you read the comments some people have been making it’s coming to be idiots. not saying you but here’s what a Palestinian who actually knows Palestine really knows. One yes Hamas got the playbook to invade Israel territory from Hezbollah, do I think iran told them to do this no makes no sense I’m sure iran or hezbollah was waiting the day Israel or Americans every decided to attack iran, I’m sure iran had it planned as a three way operation between Gaza Golan and Lebanon again if iran ever came under attack.

What’s Hamas end game I think right now is to survive this war and let the idf enter and make it very painful for idf you have to assume they have activated massive IED so can kill as many as they can, yes hundreds if not more idf are going to die probably more idf now isn’t the same idf 90s 2000s the Israeli military has become an air military and cyber warfare and when they do fight they fight against lightly armed forces in the West Bank in heavily armored vehicles they have become soft. When you have soldier’s hiding in their underwear in closets and beds who were supposed to guard the border doesn’t scream macho.
I hope this war ends soon to be fair honestly tired of watching Palestinian children die. The only good thing that this might bring is Netanyahu and his cronies will be gone after this war and yes if everything goes like how it went in the past 73 war intifada and etc Israelis are going to wake up from their fog that ignoring the Palestinian “issue” is not attainable they will make peace they will leave the West Bank and Gaza but they will make sure with thousands of observers with Hamas and the other groups lay down their arms they will give Palestinians their state settlements will have to be evacuated because if they could do that in Gaza they could do that in the future in the West Bank and I’m sure groups are already trying to come up with plans.
 
The weather forecast for Israel is medium, little this, little that, sun and clouds and so on. Wouldnt it be nice if it would rain the whole week?
Breaking News; IDF delays operations due to nice sunny weather :)

Honestly been staying out of discussions for the most part because to be fair I may not always come off knowing many things regarding Iran in everything but when you read the comments some people have been making it’s coming to be idiots. not saying you but here’s what a Palestinian who actually knows Palestine really knows. One yes Hamas got the playbook to invade Israel territory from Hezbollah, do I think iran told them to do this no makes no sense I’m sure iran or hezbollah was waiting the day Israel or Americans every decided to attack iran, I’m sure iran had it planned as a three way operation between Gaza Golan and Lebanon again if iran ever came under attack.

What’s Hamas end game I think right now is to survive this war and let the idf enter and make it very painful for idf you have to assume they have activated massive IED so can kill as many as they can, yes hundreds if not more idf are going to die probably more idf now isn’t the same idf 90s 2000s the Israeli military has become an air military and cyber warfare and when they do fight they fight against lightly armed forces in the West Bank in heavily armored vehicles they have become soft. When you have soldier’s hiding in their underwear in closets and beds who were supposed to guard the border doesn’t scream macho.
I hope this war ends soon to be fair honestly tired of watching Palestinian children die. The only good thing that this might bring is Netanyahu and his cronies will be gone after this war and yes if everything goes like how it went in the past 73 war intifada and etc Israelis are going to wake up from their fog that ignoring the Palestinian “issue” is not attainable they will make peace they will leave the West Bank and Gaza but they will make sure with thousands of observers with Hamas and the other groups lay down their arms they will give Palestinians their state settlements will have to be evacuated because if they could do that in Gaza they could do that in the future in the West Bank and I’m sure groups are already trying to come up with plans.
As far as what I understand historically, the only way they will come out of this fog, is if they experience military defeat and that image of invincibility they have (Most people in the world assume Israel has a top 5 military) is shattered. Then they will come to the table. Otherwise, they will continue the same path after pacifying Gaza.
 
One yes Hamas got the playbook to invade Israel territory from Hezbollah, do I think iran told them to do this no makes no sense I’m sure iran or hezbollah was waiting the day Israel or Americans every decided to attack iran, I’m sure iran had it planned as a three way operation between Gaza Golan and Lebanon again if iran ever came under attack
In the last 3 years, their has been more enhanced coordination between the groups, with liaison offices in Lebanon and Tehran. I'm not quite convinced IRGC and HZ was surprised by this, All the groups in Gaza could've decided on when to do it and not inform others to prevent risk of leaks or someone listening in.
 
Breaking News; IDF delays operations due to nice sunny weather :)


As far as what I understand historically, the only way they will come out of this fog, is if they experience military defeat and that image of invincibility they have (Most people in the world assume Israel has a top 5 military) is shattered. Then they will come to the table. Otherwise, they will continue the same path after pacifying Gaza.
1400 hundred dead in one day and counting still going not even the first second intifada or hezbollah conflict and most Arab countries could say that, you have to read the outcomes of each one of those yes Israelis come together to fight their common enemy than comes the blame game , left and center are going to go after their leadership elections will be had soon with American government telling the Israelis well you can keep on ignoring the Palestinians but I guess will see what happens in another 10 years.
 
The image of invincibility is already shattered, IDF relies on IAF for every single thing, the navy and ground forces have been already exposed in the past

All of these Hollywood movies with Mossad, the invincible army, are exposed, they literally shoot between themselves and crash their tanks into a truck two times and kill themselves, IDF on ground is going to expose them even more and shatter even more their image, 2006 already exposed some of their flaws, now this is reservists and soldiers that have 0 experience beside killing elders and kids, no motivation, fear of urban combat, against probably the most motivated soldiers on earth right now

They will need so much CAS to support their ground offensive, they will take heavy casualties and try to hide it.

So far they have not managed to counter any of the last week HZ retaliations, ATGM attacks on borders.

But, Iran and HZ, should never underestimate any entity even if they are or have been exposed.

Iran should take big notes, no IAF=No army, the same applies to Western military, no birds no army for Israel.
 
In the last 3 years, there has been more enhanced coordination between the groups, with liaison offices in Lebanon and Tehran. I'm not quite convinced IRGC and HZ was surprised by this, All the groups in Gaza could've decided on when to do it and not inform others to prevent risk of leaks or someone listening in.
You have to look at this way and let’s be honest does iran have anything to gain from this other than a good laugh at the killing of Israelis. Sorry iran would have wanted this action only as revenge for an attack on iran now hezbollah can’t use the same plan I’m sure they have other means but not at the scale that Hamas was able to do with surprise, perhaps tunnels and submersibles they definitely have a better trained force but if you noticed other than tit for tat exchanges they don’t really want to get involved if they did there would have been 10s of thousands rockets rained down of Israel and yes perfect timing because yes iron dome and David sling interceptors are not unlimited hezbollah could literally destroy towns and cities but they won’t, unless nasrallah gets killed.
 
Amir Abdollahian's declarations are well thought out, and they serve precise purposes. To see how, one needs to examine the intricacies of the situation.

Signals from Iran, while diplomatic enough to allow for flexibility in a situation of conflict i.e. relatively volatile by nature, are visibly unnerving the zionists and complicating their war planning.

The fact that decision makers in Tel Aviv and much vaunted zionist intelligence agencies cannot determine for sure whether or not, and under what exact conditions the Resistance would open a second major front to the north has not only delayed a possible upcoming ground offensive in Gaza, it has also exposed Isra"el" as a paper tiger, incapable as it is of handling this sort of a dual scenario with the profound ease expected from a top level power. Isra"el"'s so-called strategic edge is being deconstructed before our eyes.

On a related note, the types of actions conducted over the past week by HezbAllah and Lebanon-based Palestinian partners ought to be pondered by everyone. Strikes against ten or so zionist targets including outposts, radars, tanks and armored vehicles, causing multiple casualties in the ranks of the enemy. Had HezbAllah proceeded with such merely nine days ago, Isra"el"'s response would have been extensive. But now Tel Aviv is reduced to opting for timid counterfire - exposing again unsuspected limits to its military might. Analysts and experts worldwide are taking heed.

HezbAllah's initiatives are calibrated to pin down a massive number of Isra"el"i forces in the north of Occupied Palestine which otherwise would have been mobilizable for a ground attack on Gaza, as zionists are kept in the dark about the exact intentions of the Resistance. At the same time HezbAllah will not act too rashly, thus avoiding untimely exhaustion of its escalation options and the risk of a domestic backlash (which will decrease if excessive mayhem is brought upon Gaza).

If zionist military superiority as projected by mainstream media was factual, then these low- to mid-intensity operations of HezbAllah ought to have triggered overwhelming zionist reaction on the very first day. Instead, Tel Aviv's war minister Gallant is seen attempting to appease HezbAllah.

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Gallant says Israel has no interest in conflict with Hezbollah, but warns it against choosing war​

By Agencies
Today, 6:24 pm

https://www.timesofisrael.com /liveblog_entry/gallant-israel-has-no-interest-in-conflict-with-hezbollah-but-warns-group-against-choosing-war/

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The Isra"el"i image of invincibility is shattered for good. Not simply in abstract collective representations or simply in the psyche of involved actors, but on the battlefield itself, where the equation has experienced an undeniable incremental shift towards the Resistance.

In this regard Iranian diplomatic activity and discourse is perfectly matching HezbAllah's efforts on the ground. Coordination between the two Resistance members has shown to be exemplary. This is while Iran and allies are carefully advancing their pawns on the chessboard, calculating with proficience, positioning and repositioning themselves adequately in accordance with dynamic conditions in the field as well as with latest acquired data.

Masterfully done by the Islamic Republic and the Resistance Axis.
 
This is the difference between real news and the plague of anonymous sources in all medias. This is proven with the yesterday contradicting post with the "red line" by Axios using anonymous sources talking on behalf of Iran FM

Excellent, keep the enemy puzzled about what your plan may be, complicate its own planning.
 
Iran just warned Israel that It will intervene if Israel doesn’t stop … well, I say let’s go. Persia has nothing to worry about. It’s the land of warriors and it’s the greatest civilisations in written history.

If Iran Intervenes Iran will decimate Israel, America and whoever the hell that comes with them .

Victory to Persians and the Islamic Republic
Kind of defeats the purpose of using Hamas as proxies and going into war directly.

Your post wasn't addressing my point. With the exception of the comment on Saddam which isn't accurate since he wasn't ousted for having invaded Kuwait, other bogus justifications were invoked, whilst the actual goal of the illegal occupation was what I described before i.e. neo-con strategy to remodel the region through force.
Its addressing the point. We turned against Saddam because he invaded Kuwait and threw him out of there. Not because we just felt like going against him. And I have said before, the U.S. left Iraq and went back in by invitation by Iraq as well. And we don't need to use the ISIS to go back in when we could have just stayed in longer.
 
You have to look at this way and let’s be honest does iran have anything to gain from this other than a good laugh at the killing of Israelis. Sorry iran would have wanted this action only as revenge for an attack on iran now hezbollah can’t use the same plan I’m sure they have other means but not at the scale that Hamas was able to do with surprise, perhaps tunnels and submersibles they definitely have a better trained force but if you noticed other than tit for tat exchanges they don’t really want to get involved if they did there would have been 10s of thousands rockets rained down of Israel and yes perfect timing because yes iron dome and David sling interceptors are not unlimited hezbollah could literally destroy towns and cities but they won’t, unless nasrallah gets killed.
Gaza's factions plan required complete surprise which no longer exists so infiltration can only be done under the cover of lots of artillery. Besides that.

Too soon to say what will happen. That being said, they've stated a few times the invasion of Gaza is not tolerated, and that would trigger a tough decision within the axis. That might be why IDF is "delaying" despite the weather being fine.

For the time being, we shall see these tit-for-tat strikes which are imposing costs, and if their is a halt in fire, then everything will subside. The ball is in Israel's hands and what it wants to do with it. War planners have to be suppressing emotion, and acting intelligently and systematically and patiently. War is not 1 day. In the last few days, HZ has been deliberately damaging the ability for the IDF to monitor its border, but attacking observation posts, communication towers, and a radar position. The videos they are publishing shows they are not hitting random targets, but specific targets that damage primarily communication. If you operate systematically, you can weaken your enemy without even fighting the real war yet, they are softening the IDF in the event they need to do full scale strikes and infiltration, it would be much easier.

Next I would not be surprised if they try to go after the Iron dome batteries themselves one at a time, because as much as you think HZ doesn't want to get full embroiled, neither does the IDF, their responses will be very muted.
 
We turned against Saddam because he invaded Kuwait and threw him out of there. Not because we just felt like going against him.

I did not discuss why the USA regime turned against Saddam but why they went on and toppled him. There's an important nuance between these questions. Saddam was not ousted for having invaded Kuwait, an act which took place in the summer of 1990 i.e. more than twelve years prior to the invasion of Iraq at the hands of Washington.

He was removed as part of a comprehensive neoconservative remodeling plan for West Asia implemented in the aftermath of the September 2001 attacks. To this effect, bogus "evidence" was concocted and invoked alleging WMD possession by Iraq.

And I have said before, the U.S. left Iraq and went back in by invitation by Iraq as well. And we don't need to use the ISIS to go back in when we could have just stayed in longer.

I never talked about this, which leaves me with no choice but to repeat: extra-regional powers instrumentalized "I"SIS as a tool with the intent of breaking up the existing territorial order in West Asia inherited from the Sykes-Picot agreement. This was among other things aimed at disrupting the territorial contiguity of Resistance Axis members along the border between Syria and Iraq. Only that it failed because the Resistance proved successful at countering the scheme. This is when it became imperative upon the regime in Washington to dispatch its forces so that the entire territory of Iraq and Syria wouldn't be liberated by the Resistance alone.

As we can see in Syria now, the northeastern part of the country is occupied by the USA military and its local Kurdish-led proxies. This is why American imperialists intervened to neutralize their "I"SIS patsies in Syria. As for Iraq, had the Resistance on its own cleansed the entire national territory from "I"SIS, it would have translated into a thorough loss of influence for Washington within the Iraqi political scene post-"I"SIS. So the USA meddled anew to prevent the void about to be left by "I"SIS, from being filled by the sole Resistance. The above quoted suggestion is thus beside the point raised here.
 
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Social-political affordability of casualties within their ranks, they are inferior.
Susceptibility to international pressure, they are inferior.
Morale wise, they are inferior.
Fighting spirit wise, they are inferior due to hailing from an affluent post-modern society.
Unity wise, they are inferior considering how fractured and polarized the Isra"el"i political scene has been of late.

These are key criteria as well.
The anchor of my post before was if they had a Khomeini type leader, they can succeed through blood. however many casualties it takes, ignoring international complaints, iron will they could achieve it if they had it. We assume they are inferior on these points, but in their "post 9-11" society, these equations may have changed. Particularly with regards to unity.

I have no doubts the IDF would be demoralized and fearful when entering the strip. That's because their leader is despised.
 
The anchor of my post before was if they had a Khomeini type leader, they can succeed through blood. however many casualties it takes, ignoring international complaints, iron will they could achieve it if they had it. We assume they are inferior on these points, but in their "post 9-11" society, these equations may have changed. Particularly with regards to unity.

I have no doubts the IDF would be demoralized and fearful when entering the strip. That's because their leader is despised.

Zionist society in Occupied Palestine will remain an affluent post-modern one, even with an extraordinary charismatic leader at its helm.

Tolerance for massive war-time sacrifice is hardly conceivable in societies like these. "Post-9/11" moments imply heightened readiness to shed other peoples' blood (and mostly video game-style at that i.e. from a safe and comfortable distance), not so much to have their own shed. Remember how unpopular the illegal USA war and subsequent occupation of Iraq quickly became. Imagine if the American military lost not <4500 but 45000 troops.

As for unity, Netanyahu is being openly blamed right away. Bush jr. wasn't.

It's not going to be a walk through the park for the occupiers. I'm in doubt they'll manage to suppress the entire Hamas leadership, let's not talk about eradicating the movement as a whole.
 
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User Elvin shared this interesting excerpt of an interview with Hamas Political Bureau Deputy Chairman Saleh Al-Arouri conducted on August 25, 2023. Uploaded by the zionist MEMRI institute, but locating it elsewhere quickly won't be easy.


Another occurrence which comes to mind in this framework is the series of high level meetings between HezbAllah's Secretary General seyyed NasrAllah and Hamas, PIJ officials during the months leading up to the present conflict.

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Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Meets Hamas Chief Haniyeh in Lebanon Following Rocket Barrage on Israel​

Top Hamas officials met with Hezbollah’s leader in Lebanon to discuss the recent escalation between Israel and the Palestinians, including the recent rocket strikes and clashes at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, according to Lebanese media

Fadi Amun
Apr 9, 2023

https://www.haaretz.com /middle-east-news/2023-04-09/ty-article/.premium/hezbollahs-nasrallah-meets-hamas-chief-haniyeh-in-lebanon-after-rocket-barrage-on-israel/00000187-652a-dde0-afb7-7f3b5a210000

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Nasrallah meets with Hamas delegation​

L'Orient Today / 19 March 2023 12:48

BEIRUT — Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah met with a Hamas delegation led by the group's political bureau No. 2, Saleh al-Arouri, Hezbollah's press office reported Sunday.

The date of the meeting was not specified in the statement.

The statement about this meeting comes after Hezbollah on Saturday reported another meeting between Nasrallah and a delegation from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, chaired by its leader Ziad al-Nakhala. During the Saturday meeting, the two men agreed to "continue the dialogue and cooperation" between their groups.

https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1331958/nasrallah-meets-with-hamas-delegation.html

54f53903-18d2-4436-a670-108696c991fa.jpg




Hamas Attack on Israel Brings New Scrutiny of Group’s Ties to Iran​

Officials from Iran and Hezbollah helped plan the attack, people familiar with the operation said, but the U.S. and its allies have not found evidence directly linking Tehran.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/13/world/middleeast/hamas-iran-israel-attack.html




Hezbollah says calls for it not to intervene in war 'will have no effect'​

Reuters
October 13, 20235:46 PM GMT+2 Updated 3 days ago




A piece on Isra"el"'s domestic tensions and disunity, from Isra"el"'s main center-left daily Haaretz.

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Opinion

Fighting Israel's War Within the War​

Noa Landau
Oct 15, 2023


While Israel is grieving, shocked and anxious as never before, a repugnant activity is spreading in the deepest pit of social media, at a pace that is worrisome. This includes a deluge of conspiracy theories about the “leftist traitors” who are to blame for the failures leading to the massacre, along with the invention of security personnel who allegedly “helped Hamas on the inside”; groups inflaming sentiments and amplifying calls for private acts of vengeance upon Palestinians and Arab citizens of Israel; accusing the Israeli “media” of treason; and expressing the most execrable type of schadenfreude toward the victims of the disaster, who were identified as supporters of the protests against the government.

https://www.haaretz.com /opinion/2023-10-15/ty-article/.premium/fighting-israels-war-within-the-war/0000018b-2f40-d450-a3af-6f5c28620000
 
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