Iranian Chill Thread

[Stryker1982]

Remind us how many Ukrainians have left the country as refugees after only two and a half months of war? Also, kindly ponder the fact that the entire south / southeastern half of Ukraine is populated essentially by russophiles (in fact, by Russians). You may substract these from the pool of manpower available to Ukraine as well.

The average excluding Luhansk and Donestk are 60-70%, what about the other 30-40%? And the Ukrainians that have left the country as refugees are all women, men are not allowed to leave. 2-3 million from 45 million is hardly a surprise historically. The only reason militaries aren't even bigger during wartime is because the logistics and equipment would not keep up with a larger army. But Ukraine has much more support now.

It's plain obvious that Moscow hasn't been using a heavy handed approach thus far if alone for the fact that the inhabitants of the areas it is fighting in are largely pro-Russian and are being pinned down as human shields by Ukrainian reprisal brigades.

Hasn't bene using a heavy handed approach? They've flatted virtually every town and city in order to achieve their objectives. Everyone can see that.

This is also why Russia hasn't gone over to obliterating Ukrainian infrastructures on a large scale, NATO-style. You mention bridges in Dnjepropetrovsk, do you believe it would have been beyond the capability of the Russian military to erase them in a matter of minutes if given the order? If so, I'd advise to think again.

I'll ask you to think again... Russia has fired over 1000 missiles and has virtually wiped out all of Ukraine domestic military industry. And the bridges being up is my question to Russia as to why they are not destroying them and allowing NATO supplies and logistical convoys to reach the front from Poland.

 

[SalarHaqq]

The average excluding Luhansk and Donestk are 60-70%, what about the other 30-40%?

The south / southeastern half has traditionally leaned towards Russia and speaks Russian at home. Of course it's never 100% in any district, but then there are also some Russian speakers in the north and west.

And the Ukrainians that have left the country as refugees are all women, men are not allowed to leave. 2-3 million from 45 million is hardly a surprise historically. The only reason militaries aren't even bigger during wartime is because the logistics and equipment would not keep up with a larger army. But Ukraine has much more support now.

Russia has almost three and a half times Ukraine's population, more advanced armament, superior firepower.

Hasn't bene using a heavy handed approach? They've flatted virtually every town and city in order to achieve their objectives. Everyone can see that.

This suggests to me you've perhaps been relying a bit too much on western sources (or shall we say NATO propaganda). Granted, with the unprecedented levels of censorship applied by NATO regimes, it's hard to come by objective information that isn't outright demonizing Russia.

Even heavyweight veteran journalists and analysts such as Pepe Escobar or Scott Ritter have their "social media" accounts deleted, and the excuses given are systematically bogus i.e. they didn't violate any rules. This should tell you that the west is extremely anxious about dissident voices being heard and challenging the sole authorized narrative. I wonder why (in fact I don't, who does really).

I'll ask you to think again... Russia has fired over 1000 missiles and has virtually wiped out all of Ukraine domestic military industry. And the bridges being up is my question to Russia as to why they are not destroying them and allowing NATO supplies and logistical convoys to reach the front from Poland.

Military industries, an obvious priority target, isn't it, and even for that it took Russia some time to muster enough resolve. Civilian infrastructure is a different matter though, power plants, highways, railways, bridges and so on. You know these missiles could have targeted them yet Russia refrained. So putting two and two together, what other realistic hypothesis would you arrive at other than the notion that the Russians aren't too keen on obliterating the Ukraine's civilian infrastructure the way NATO would on the very first day.

 

[925boy]

Why should Iran support them when they've done nothing but fu*ked Iran for the last 20 years. Cancelling deals,

Dont forget it was after Soleimani's plea to Russia to use its Air force in Syria that Russia joined the SYrian war. Until Russia joined formally, the ground fighting was very and taking a deadly toll on SAA and its allied forces. That was a decent favor that helped secure Iran's foothold in Syria. And yes, Russia and Iran also renewed their strategic long term agreement, so the Iranian govt to a large degree, already believes it can trust Russia enough, and hopefully this Ukraine conflict makes Russia trust its Asian allies and not double cross them again.

 

[jauk]

That post is commending China’s economic policy success as instrumental to its independence which is simply unrivaled in human history when looking at 1970-2020. I’d be hard pressed to find a country that grew as well as China in a Western led order since the start of the 21st century.

I have no faults with China’s policy growing as a economic power. It astutely used Western consumerism to gain ToT and western dependence for cheap goods to catapult itself from a rice paddy 3rd world country to the second biggest economy in the world.

But it’s geopolitical policy has been very lackluster given events like Syrian Civil War, Iran-US spat under Trump, and now Ukraine. Russia is supposedly China’s closest “ally”, we can brush over the other two events as not directly applicable to Chinese interests (or whatever excuse you would like to make).

Xi will be facing the Western Pivot soon. Both Russia and China used Iran to distract the West from confronting them...except the West was still covertly moving in their directions and in the case of the former they are right up to the border. Now Finland and Sweden are declaring they want to join NATO.

How does Russia expect to stand against a 35-40 member alliance if Xi would rather sit on the sidelines and buy his time?

Maybe Xi thinks that Russia’s survival is not important to China—that a return to a Yeltsin like figure that panders to the West is not incompatible with China.

One thing is the Russia — Iran — China axis people keep commenting does not yet exist mostly due to Russia and China and their lone wolf foreign policy where as Western led order is built on increasing allies in all realms.

Iran has extensive support among its various proxies and foreign legions. Russia has Chenchens and some separatists. China has China (not sure how reliable Pakistan would be as a military ally in conflict).

My criticism is lack of a unified foreign policy with Iran from both Russia and China. A security architecture to rival NATO in some capacity. It seems both powers think their nuclear arms provide enough power and in case of China its economic might is an added deterrence.

But the moves are happening underneath the surface....more and more western factories are pivoting to Vietnam and other Asian countries from China. The order has been given.

Let’s see how the great power game plays out.



Fair to point to criticise the amount of government or “quasi government” control of manufacturing sector as a possible reason for inefficiencies in economic model. However, China has shown that a quasi government control economic model can be very successful.

It all comes down to implementation.

You are measuring China’s success with a conventional stick. China’s self measures are very different and what you call ‘geopolitical success’ is simply out of their context of thinking. Yes, if measured conventionally it can be frustrating for some (even me) until you change that lens. I agree with you China’s privatization model seems successful although I question the amount of western modality injected in their thinking. I also question the measure of ethics they have applied in rolling out their policy. That alone is orthogonal to the Iranian psyche as doing good even at your own detriment..

We all have to question what has been fed to us in our lifetimes under Westetn propaganda. That includes self perception of success, economics, ‘patriotism’, culture, religion, whatever. Question EVERYTHING. As Iranians it is incumbent on us to see outside the standard fishbowl. It can be difficult but once it becomes habit new insight and clarity will gradually manifest ittsel. It’s very liberating. But caution not to fall in the pot of crackdom because some things are in fact what they seem to be.

 

[TheImmortal]

Russia has been pummeling Ukrainian forces alright, seeing how the latter are believed to have lost (killed and permanently removed from battlefield) several tens of thousands of troops as well as thousands of MBT's and APC's.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517252772625854469

This is not “pummeling”.

Less than 1700 missiles fired into A country the size of Ukraine is 2 months is not “pummeling”

Russia is mostly relying on highly inaccurate artillery and rockets. Both sides are just mass firing into an area hoping they hit something. You can see footage of fields covered in postmarks for km’s. If this was Syria it would be understandable, but for Russia that fields one of the biggest and most sophisticated air forces in the world it’s underwhelming.

I think the issue here isn’t Russian underperformance against expectations it’s the Degree of Russia underperformance against expectations.

I will be honest, it shocked me. I had read reports about the poor state of Russian armed forces outside of the VDV, Chechens, and Spetnaz, and other SOF. But again it was easy to dismiss them as Western propaganda.

I knew Russian armed forces weren’t as vaunted as people thought....I saw them in Syria. During the pilot rescue attempt when Turkey shot down SU-22....during multiple UAV raids on its airbase by Wahabbi terrorist. Who can forget the rocket attacks that caused some embarrassment? Who can forget the Russian general that steps on IED after walking around it the first time?

But I was not expecting this level of underperformance.

120BTGs have been reduced to about 80BTGs give or take. That might be enough to take southeastern Ukraine, but not all of Ukraine and doubtful even Kiev with such a force.

Like @Stryker1982 corrextly said the longer the war goes on the more BTGs Ukraine can maintain and the less than less Russia will have. This is what happens when one force can do general mobilization and the other side is hamstrung by domestic politics (Russia). This is what hamstrung US in Afghansitsn and Iraq from increasing troop counts and maintaining them. In case of Iran-Iraq war both sides could do general mobilization.

This military operation could only be successful under 2 conditions:

1) Russia completely blitzkreigs Ukraine and Ukraine folds faster than lawn chair

2) Russian forces were vastly more skilled to Ukraine soldiers at a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio.

You have to remember Iran raised a 10M army and Saddam countered that by raising a less than 2M man army. But even with that many troops, without western and Arab aid Saddam wouldn’t be able to hold back the Iranian Shiite Wave.

Thus US and West stepped in to make sure Iran couldn’t utilize its numbers to overrun Iraq and the Middle East. Iran also helped by doing very archaic human wave attacks and other nonsensical strategies.

In Ukraine, it’s a much much much smaller example in reverse. Ukraine can maintain enough BTGs thru mobilization and volunteer while Russia without general mobilization cannot hope to match it.

Thus the war in Ukraine may be over sooner than people think. Either Russia captures Southern Ukraine and negotiates or the frontlines freeze more or less where they are and a ceasefire is agreed.

It all comes down to the Donbass offensive.

 

[Shawnee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517045679650127872

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517674334604587008

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517240386888024067

The Zionists jumping ship? Or merely diversifying in case of Black Swan Event?

Iran Revolutionary Guards general unhurt after car shot at, state media reports

Gunmen opened fire on a car carrying a senior Revolutionary Guards commander in restive southeastern Iran early on Saturday, killing a bodyguard, Iranian state media reported.

www.reuters.com

 

[WudangMaster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517240386888024067

The Zionists jumping ship? Or merely diversifying in case of Black Swan Event?

Iran Revolutionary Guards general unhurt after car shot at, state media reports

Gunmen opened fire on a car carrying a senior Revolutionary Guards commander in restive southeastern Iran early on Saturday, killing a bodyguard, Iranian state media reported.

www.reuters.com

They are diversifying their holdings and expanding their tentacles into everything; surprised they haven't done this before or maybe just now announcing this.

 

[TheImmortal]

Iran's Worst Fears in Afghanistan Are Coming True as ISIS Tests Red Line

"Unfortunately, some extremist forces are embarking on racial and ethnic disparities in Afghanistan for their own narrow political objectives," Iran's U.N. mission told Newsweek.

www.newsweek.com

*************

 

[SalarHaqq]

That post is commending China’s economic policy success as instrumental to its independence which is simply unrivaled in human history when looking at 1970-2020. I’d be hard pressed to find a country that grew as well as China in a Western led order since the start of the 21st century.

I have no faults with China’s policy growing as a economic power. It astutely used Western consumerism to gain ToT and western dependence for cheap goods to catapult itself from a rice paddy 3rd world country to the second biggest economy in the world.

But it’s geopolitical policy has been very lackluster given events like Syrian Civil War, Iran-US spat under Trump, and now Ukraine. Russia is supposedly China’s closest “ally”, we can brush over the other two events as not directly applicable to Chinese interests (or whatever excuse you would like to make).

Xi will be facing the Western Pivot soon. Both Russia and China used Iran to distract the West from confronting them...except the West was still covertly moving in their directions and in the case of the former they are right up to the border. Now Finland and Sweden are declaring they want to join NATO.

How does Russia expect to stand against a 35-40 member alliance if Xi would rather sit on the sidelines and buy his time?

Maybe Xi thinks that Russia’s survival is not important to China—that a return to a Yeltsin like figure that panders to the West is not incompatible with China.

In their post from September 2001, the quoted user explicitly claimed China has been resisting the US regime.

"China never abandoned its resistance" was their exact formulation.

Now in this thread, the user is operating a complete u-turn relative to the above and attempting to mock Chinese policy as fearful of and subservient to the US.

Last fall, Russia or China hadn't started anything special in terms of forceful countermoves against NATO. Hence the user was comfortable to praise China's approach while contrasting it with Iran's policy of Resistance, which they took issue with. Indeed, from the user's perspective circumstances were lending themselves to encouraging Iranian readers to find fault with Iran's principled strategy.

Today, Russia is fully involved in squashing a US client regime in Ukraine while NATO's priority number one is to isolate Moscow and create rifts between the latter and its partners including Iran, at the minimum when it comes to public opinion in these countries. Hence why American users who were never to be seen around suddenly popped up to spread the west's Ukraine narrative in the Iranian Chill Thread.

In the current geopolitical context, the quoted user then flip flops by a hundred and eighty degrees to take exacerbated verbal pokes at both Russia and China. Anyone hoping to delegitimize Russia and China with Iranian readers cannot but go into overdrive mode at this precise juncture. So now to the quoted user Iran's become great again, Russia and China are the ill-advised, short-sighted ones.

My criticism is lack of a unified foreign policy with Iran from both Russia and China. A security architecture to rival NATO in some capacity. It seems both powers think their nuclear arms provide enough power and in case of China its economic might is an added deterrence.

Words carry weight and everything's in the choice one makes of them. That which the quoted user's been posting here since the start of the Russian special military operation hardly qualifies as constructive criticism, does it. More like an attempt at downright and systematic put-down of both Moscow and Beijing. The user is obviously and avowedly irked at any manifestation of solidarity from Iranian forum members towards these major geopolitical partners of Iran.

How is this different from the US regime's systematic efforts to blacken the perception Iranians have of Russia and China, enrolling to this effect not just the exiled opposition (from monarchists to the MKO and "ethno"-separatists), but also all foreign-based Persian-language media such as the BBC, Manoto, Saudi International, as well as domestic Iranian reformists and moderates, from the Tajzadehs, Hajjarians and Zibakalams to the Rafsanjanis.

But the moves are happening underneath the surface....more and more western factories are pivoting to Vietnam and other Asian countries from China. The order has been given.

Let’s see how the great power game plays out.

Even greater shifts are taking place underneath the surface in the opposite direction, to the detriment of the US and NATO. But sadly we can't expect the quoted user to report them, can we.

 

[SalarHaqq]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517252772625854469

This is not “pummeling”.

Less than 1700 missiles fired into A country the size of Ukraine is 2 months is not “pummeling”

Russia is mostly relying on highly inaccurate artillery and rockets. Both sides are just mass firing into an area hoping they hit something. You can see footage of fields covered in postmarks for km’s. If this was Syria it would be understandable, but for Russia that fields one of the biggest and most sophisticated air forces in the world it’s underwhelming.

The pummeling is being done by way of infantry eliminating Ukrainian personnel, with artillery and more. Perhaps US carpet-bombing tactics should cease being perceived as the sole conceivable ones, and as the be all and end all of warfighting.

I think the issue here isn’t Russian underperformance against expectations it’s the Degree of Russia underperformance against expectations.

I will be honest, it shocked me. I had read reports about the poor state of Russian armed forces outside of the VDV, Chechens, and Spetnaz, and other SOF. But again it was easy to dismiss them as Western propaganda.

Ar the end of the dauy, the important question that matters is about NATO's inability to empower its proxies against the Russian juggernaut.

I knew Russian armed forces weren’t as vaunted as people thought....I saw them in Syria. During the pilot rescue attempt when Turkey shot down SU-22....during multiple UAV raids on its airbase by Wahabbi terrorist. Who can forget the rocket attacks that caused some embarrassment? Who can forget the Russian general that steps on IED after walking around it the first time?

Anecdotal tidbits of uncertain factual accuracy cited out of context, and treated as "proof" for a far reaching general conclusion. A recurrent yet flawed method.

120BTGs have been reduced to about 80BTGs give or take. That might be enough to take southeastern Ukraine, but not all of Ukraine and doubtful even Kiev with such a force.

More speculation and NATO narratives passed off as hard facts.

Like @Stryker1982 corrextly said the longer the war goes on the more BTGs Ukraine can maintain and the less than less Russia will have. This is what happens when one force can do general mobilization and the other side is hamstrung by domestic politics (Russia). This is what hamstrung US in Afghansitsn and Iraq from increasing troop counts and maintaining them. In case of Iran-Iraq war both sides could do general mobilization.

Russia is hamstrung by domestic politics, with a government approval rate of approximately 85%?

This military operation could only be successful under 2 conditions:

1) Russia completely blitzkreigs Ukraine and Ukraine folds faster than lawn chair

2) Russian forces were vastly more skilled to Ukraine soldiers at a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio.

You have to remember Iran raised a 10M army and Saddam countered that by raising a less than 2M man army. But even with that many troops, without western and Arab aid Saddam wouldn’t be able to hold back the Iranian Shiite Wave.

Iranian Shiite wave? However Iran never viewed her mobilization effort as an exclusively Shiite one but rather as an pan-Islamic endeavour.

Differences between the Sacred Defence and the ongoing war in Ukraine are numerous.

Last but not least, with a nearly 3,5 to 1 difference in total populations Russia dwarfs Ukraine in terms of manpower.

Thus US and West stepped in to make sure Iran couldn’t utilize its numbers to overrun Iraq and the Middle East. Iran also helped by doing very archaic human wave attacks and other nonsensical strategies.

In Ukraine, it’s a much much much smaller example in reverse. Ukraine can maintain enough BTGs thru mobilization and volunteer while Russia without general mobilization cannot hope to match it.

Thus the war in Ukraine may be over sooner than people think. Either Russia captures Southern Ukraine and negotiates or the frontlines freeze more or less where they are and a ceasefire is agreed.

It all comes down to the Donbass offensive.

Any of these scenarii will represent a strategic defeat for the west.

_____

Iran's Worst Fears in Afghanistan Are Coming True as ISIS Tests Red Line

"Unfortunately, some extremist forces are embarking on racial and ethnic disparities in Afghanistan for their own narrow political objectives," Iran's U.N. mission told Newsweek.

www.newsweek.com

Just your “misunderstood” and “brainwashed” Sunni killing more Shiites in Afghanistan this time a mosque, attack before a high school full of kids.

Don’t worry guys all these Shiites dying in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria, Iraq. It’s okay, the Sunnis didn’t mean it, they were just misunderstood.

We await confirmation of this poor Sunni soul from our neighborhood Sunni apologist @SalarHaqq to tell us more about these innocent attackers.

This is the “religion” that the Baboon Arabians and their fellow regional ape species preach in their mosques.

It would seem the quoted user still hasn't got it, so let me set it straight: I'm no "apologist" for Sunnis for there's nothing much to apologize about our brothers from Ahle Sonnat. No, I am rather a staunch proactive defender of Sunni Moslems, and proudly so. My love for Sunni Moslems is equalled only by my abhorrence for takfiris.

Every Shia should adopt this view, much like every Sunni ought to stand up for their Shia brothers in Islam. This is what Islam teaches us, to spare no efforts in countering fitna, especially when it is fueled by enemies of Islamic peoples and nations.

I wonder why I, the supposed "Sunni apologist", have received a death threat from an anti-Shia sectarianist on this forum and why I've become the object of that sectarianist's obsession, whilst these sectarianists are hardly ever bothering the quoted user, user who tries to assume the role of a champion of the Shia cause?

_____

By the way, here's another so-called "Sunni apologist from our neighborhood" (to cite the wording of the quoted user):

Imam Khomeini on Islamic Unity

https://www.al-islam.org/articles/imam-khomeini-islamic-unity-sayyid-ruhullah-musawi-khomeini

Imam Khomeini's view on Islamic Unity need of hour: Iran envoy​

Jun 4, 2021, 10:55 AM

https://en.irna.ir/news/84354756/Imam-Khomeini-s-view-on-Islamic-Unity-need-of-hour-Iran-envoy

_____

And here's yet another, addressing both Shia and Sunni ulema:

Muslim unity necessary for realization of new Islamic Civilization: Leader​

Publish Date: 24 October 2021

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei highlighted the importance of the unity of Muslims, describing Muslim unity as a "definite duty and a Qur'anic order".

https://www.shora-gc.ir/en/news/133...ealization-of-new-islamic-civilization-leader

Unity: A requirement for the Islamic community​

• Oct 23, 2021

The issue of Islamic unity has always been one of the concerns of Imam Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. This is evident both in his statements and his actions to the extent that he almost always mentions unity when addressing the Islamic community. The present Op-Ed attempts to explain his position and viewpoint in this regard by examining his statements about Islamic unity.

Unity: A requirement for the Islamic nation

The issue of Islamic unity has always been one of the concerns of Imam Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. This is evident both in his statements and actions to the extent that he almost always mentions unity when addressing the Islamic nation. The following article attempts to...

english.khamenei.ir

_____

I'd say it's high time to grasp the crucial difference between regular Sunni Islam and takfiri ideology.

And to wake up to the fact that one of the main pillars of zionist strategy has been the attempted stoking of sectarianist strife between Moslems. The false portrayal of essentially political conflicts or anti-terrorist operations as sectarianist ones. The pitting of communities against one another.

Hence why you'll never hear anti-Sunni drivel from an official of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Hence why Islamic Iran has never engaged in sectarianist policies - contrary to what sectarianists accuse her of, but on the contrary has rushed to assist her Sunni brothers wherever possible (Palestine, Afghanistan, Sudan, Bosnia, Kurdish region of Iraq, Sunni brigadres of the Iraqi PMU, local Sunni allies of Yemen's Ansarallah, Sunni units in the Syrian armed forces, you name it).

The quoted user is uncritically accepting the NATO line with regards to Ukraine, and even baseless zionist- and British-sponsored readings of West Asian conflicts, of "I"SIS and so on, and thereby following in the footsteps of the Shirazi clan, who apart from attacking Sunnis are spending their time attacking the Supreme Leader, seyyed Nasrallah and so on.

The user seems irked not just by the prospect of deeper cooperation between Iran, Russia and China, but also by the notion of solidarity between Shia and Sunni Muslims.

How much more off tracks can one's rants get?

 

[Shawnee]

سموم میلیتاریستی عالم همه علوم شدن از تصفیه آب تا معماری و الکترونیک

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria,

Shites from these countries are used as canon fodders in syria,iraq etc. by Iranian agencies
So at least Iranians should not comment when shites die at the hands of terrorists.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517792557509476353

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517769048037023744

https://twitter.com/x/status/1517749116163350528