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Iranian Chill Thread

Not sure where these numbers come from.

US had 170K troops in Iraq at its peak fighting an insurgency. Ukraine is only 38% bigger than Iraq size wise.

Also have to remember US fought a Sunni and Shiite insurgency at the same time with a failing nation state. Europeans aren’t like Arabs. Some low grade insurgency might happen here or there, but nothing on the scale we saw in Iraq which required constant troop presence. Nor is there a ethnic war threat like you had in Iraq (Kurds, Shiites, Sunnis).

Once Ukraine falls, MPs will arrive to administer safety to cities and troops and special forces units will chase down any insurgency leaders. Putin will install friendly regime elements that fled the last color revolutions.

But I agree with you that splitting Ukraine in half initially will be the first goal. Wether Putin tries to take the West will probably depend on how the war went and what the West is willing to do to prevent that operation.
In 2003 Arab parts of Iraq had a population of 20mln and American and British invasion force in March 2003 was 250.000 and Donald Ramsfeld said these forces were not enough.

Russia sent 100.000 troops to Chechnya in early 2000s against a guerilla force of 50.000 creating a two to one superiority

Ukraine is a country of 45mln people and much larger in size with dispersed population, so 200.000 Russian troops is only enough to occupy half of Ukraine east of Dnepr river.
 
Ukraine is a country of 45mln people and much larger in size with dispersed population, so 200.000 Russian troops is only enough to occupy half of Ukraine east of Dnepr river.
I would wager they are hoping or expecting the Russian speaking portion of Ukraine which is much of the East to "police" themselves, therefore occupation of these areas is not needed if this is the case.

Their are many towns near Crimea that offered no resistance so far.

I
I love this “whataboutism” arguement Western supporters put forth. “2 wrongs don’t make a right”.

When Russia/Iran/China were saying for years that the West flaunting international law to support their own interests risks a break down of international order and law the West said “blah blah blah”. When the west tore up international agreements to sastify domestic audience and maximalist demands they should have thought about days like this.

strong countries defend their own interests and national security. This has been going on since the dawn of man.

Russia gave every chance for the West to address its security concerns over the last 20 years, but instead the West continued to stage color revolutions and move closer and closer to Russian borders.

In my opinion this move was long over due, should have happened 10+ years ago.

The west doesn’t want peace with Russia.

How come Iran a country they could have squashed in 2003 and 2008 they didn’t attack? How come they choose diplomacy? That is because Iran was expanding and pushing the security threats AWAY from its borders and the West was struggling to contain Iran. Thus West WANTED diplomacy.

Which leads to my ultimate point, if West truly wanted diplomacy they would have negotiated with major power like Russia. Instead they should zero flexibility and pushed Ukraine into a war it was ill equipped to win. This is all by design to begin weakening Russia via sanctions and add Russia to the pariah list of Iran, Syria, and North Korea.

They will do the same to China vis a vi Taiwan mark my words.
I spoke to my friend today about this, and it reminded me of the Iran US relation.

If the US had attack 15 years ago, or 20 years ago or even 10 years ago. It would've been far easier for them. The Fateh-313 was only unveiled in 2015.

Instead they waited and waited and they waited too long where they no longer consider it viable. Big failure on their part.

If Russia conducts the same mistake with Ukraine (wait) 10-20 years, who knows what the state of the Ukrainian military would be. With extensive missile corps, hardened facilities, improved airforce courtesy of NATO. Maybe add some Patriot batteries and the like in there... As a matter of fact, one could arguing waiting from 2014 onwards has been costly.
 
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I would wager they are hoping or expecting the Russian speaking portion of Ukraine which is much of the East to "police" themselves, therefore occupation of these areas is not needed if this is the case.

Their are many towns near Crimea that offered no resistance so far.

I

I spoke to my friend today about this, and it reminded me of the Iran US relation.

If the US had attack 15 years ago, or 20 years ago or even 10 years ago. It would've been far easier for them. The Fateh-313 was only unveiled in 2015.

Instead they waited and waited and they waited too long where they no longer consider it viable. Big failure on their part.

If Russia conducts the same mistake with Ukraine (wait) 10-20 years, who knows what the state of the Ukrainian military would be. With extensive missile corps, hardened facilities, improved airforce courtesy of NATO. Maybe add some Patriot batteries and the like in there... As a matter of fact, one could arguing waiting from 2014 onwards has been costly.

The US didn’t not want to attack. They could have gotten directly involved in Iran-Iraq war and they mostly sat on sidelines.

They could invaded Iran at anytime and had a country with strategic natural resources and strategic location.

But the West NEEDED a boogeyman, Israel NEEDED a boogeyman. Or else if Iran did not exist. Why would Arabs need hundreds of billions of dollars of weapons? Why would Israel need tens of billions in aid? Why would US need to develop newer and newer weapons? The US military industrial complex LOVES iran. If they could kiss Rahbar they would for making them so much money milking all these countries around the world.

The answer is the deep state never wanted a war with Iran or if it did, a window was open that they were so unsure they couldn’t take action. They also wanted to go to war with communist China...ultimately never did. (Nixon moment).

Now you are telling me that Russia the leading 2nd global military power (individual country not NATO) is not worth negotiating with? With all their nukes? With all their pressure points they can employ?


I mean West wanted to demonize Putin for decades, but he kept acting pragmatic and not giving them enough excuse to paint him as a Stalinist. Now the flood gates are open, just go look what Boris Johnson said about Putin. Is this the words of a man who ever truly liked Putin? None of them did. They all were waiting for the opportunity to turn Russia into a pariah.

To your point, if Russia didn’t move in now. By 2040, Ukraine would be Hezbollah on Russia’s border except with missiles, fighter jets, worlds best air defense, and maybe even NATO supplied nukes on its territory under US control (like in Turkey).

Putin was forced into this and yes again you are correct, he should have done this in 2014, but he was still in that pragmatic mindset of trying not to stir the boat and hoping the West would change their mind.

West wants unipolar world wether it takes 25 years or 250 years they will never stop trying to weaken and subvert their enemies.

They are waiting for Khamenai to die and Putin to die/retire/get assassinated. Then they will make even more chess moves.

Luckily China solidified its internal power structure and made Xi leader for life which will provide stability for some time. But even in case of China, they are trying to influence who replaces Xi when he passes.
 
Well within 24 hours the Russians have taken over several airports and airfields in Ukraine. It was inevitable that Ukrainian forces would be able to take back atleast one right ? Anyways footage is now showing Russian special forces outside of Kiev.

I don't think that the Russians will try to occupy large cities in Ukraine street by street, brick by brick. They will likely be looking to surround large cities, cut them off while simultaneously taking control of highways, border checkpoints, airports, airfields, etc

It's like basically holding a gun to the countries head without having to occupy every street. Ukraine will be forced to sign a treaty favorable to Russia. They will have no other choice but to capitulate.

1) No one is saying Russia won’t be successful in its objectives. The military gap between Ukraine and Russia is way to wide. I mean Ukraine is giving guns to any able man right now, that is a dire situation.

The arguement is the unnecessary risk taking surrounding the airport in conjunction with lack of the optimal use of key military assets.

I mean S-400 and S-500 deployed near the borders would make large parts of Ukraine practical no fly zones for Ukraine fighter jets. Furthermore, Azeribajian used suicide drones and UAV to completely dismantle the Armenian army’s front lines and equipment and rapidly gain territory. We know Russia has a decent amount of UAV types from Syria footage.

2) Afghanistan was a disaster, but it was a insurgency not conventional war. Cant compare Russia vs Ukraine in the same way as Afghanistan vs US

3) Taking cities at this time would be pretty difficult. So it makes sense to avoid them when the forces passing thru are small. Kharkov alone has 1M+ population.

Ask Syria, Iran, USA, Iraq how difficult it can be for a conventional military to fight street to street and not end up basically demolishing the entire city.

4) Goal looks like at least initially to take Kiyv and force the government to surrender or destroy morale to the point the rest of operation becomes a much easier task. By taking the capital, Russia is trying to end the war quickly.

But 2.5M people in Kiyv, will not be simple operation if Ukraine decides to have its last stand.




 
Somehow their are clashes at the airport again which supposedly was re-captured by Ukraine...

Curious what's going on.
 
I love this “whataboutism” arguement Western supporters put forth. “2 wrongs don’t make a right”.

When Russia/Iran/China were saying for years that the West flaunting international law to support their own interests risks a break down of international order and law the West said “blah blah blah”. When the west tore up international agreements to sastify domestic audience and maximalist demands they should have thought about days like this.

strong countries defend their own interests and national security. This has been going on since the dawn of man.

Russia gave every chance for the West to address its security concerns over the last 20 years, but instead the West continued to stage color revolutions and move closer and closer to Russian borders.

In my opinion this move was long over due, should have happened 10+ years ago.

The west doesn’t want peace with Russia.

How come Iran a country they could have squashed in 2003 and 2008 they didn’t attack? How come they choose diplomacy? That is because Iran was expanding and pushing the security threats AWAY from its borders and the West was struggling to contain Iran. Thus West WANTED diplomacy.

Which leads to my ultimate point, if West truly wanted diplomacy they would have negotiated with major power like Russia. Instead they should zero flexibility and pushed Ukraine into a war it was ill equipped to win. This is all by design to begin weakening Russia via sanctions and add Russia to the pariah list of Iran, Syria, and North Korea.

They will do the same to China vis a vi Taiwan mark my words.
Still, you haven't answered my question above! But well you don't have to answer it (because you won't be able to answer it), I'll explain to you what's really going on with Russia especially Putin. The era of colonization of the Soviet Union (Russia) has ended, many countries that were formerly colonized by the Soviet Union (Russia) have now separated themselves from the Soviet Union (Russia) and become independent countries again (including Ukraine). Here Russia/Putin don't understand the real situation, they don't understand that they are over (the Soviet Union). US NATO will not attack Russia (because of thousands of nuclear) even though Ukraine is no longer an ally of Russia, and vice versa Russia will not dare to attack the west. So here it looks like Putin is being paranoid, confused and doesn't think about the future of Russia's economy. Putin should think like China, even though China has a communist ideology they still cooperate widely with the west, and now China with a different ideology from the west is the second largest country in the world in terms of economy (unlike Russia which is getting worse). Russia's biggest problem is Putin being paranoid, uncontrollable and power hungry. Many Russians are dissatisfied with Putin's iron fist policy. Democracy no longer exists in Russia, which is ruled by only a handful of power-hungry people (Putin). Many people who speak out for their democratic rights in Russia are imprisoned or even deliberately killed. That is why Russia will never progress in terms of its economy and democracy. I am disappointed with countries like Syria, Yemen and Venezuela supporting the occupation carried out by Russia/Putin (even though their fate is being attacked by other countries too. IRONIC). They should be SILENT. Even though they are especially allied with Syria (even though Russia is actually only using Syria's strategic location as a base) with Russia (which is two-faced), they should stay in the right position. I am also disappointed with the comments of Iranian politicians about the Ukraine-Russia situation, they should have made their comments more wisely or else they should have kept quiet. We know Iran is friendly with Ukraine and Russia so Iran should be in a conciliatory position instead of making amateurish comments. What would happen if Russia attacked INDEPENDENT countries like Iran, Syria, Yemen and Venezuela? I don't support US NATO or Russia China, I just hate other countries attacking INDEPENDENT country, pity the innocent people of Ukraine who are victimized by the power-hungry maniac Mr Putin's paranoid! Iran and its allies must remain vigilant and careful with the two-sided politics of Russia/Putin, they are never willing to help. Iran still remember the S-300? Syria still remember the Israeli-Russian behind the scenes?
 
So what about NATO's intervention in Afghanistan ? Now more than 1 million children are starving in Afghanistan ? What about Libya ? Weapons sales which had led to the starvation in Yemen ? What about the US attacking Iraq over WMDs that never existed which led to the death of 1 million Iraqis ?

So all these interventions are ethical and acceptable by your standards ? and what about NATO expansion in Europe ? After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev was promised that NATO would not move one inch east of Germany, yet NATO kept expanding.

Russia tolerated NATO expansion but when they went for Georgia, Russia had to react. Now NATO is putting Ukraine in its sights and Russia again had to respond. Putin is not confused at all. On the contrary he understands precisely what kinds of threats Russia is facing today and knows how and when to respond.

Still, you haven't answered my question above! But well you don't have to answer it (because you won't be able to answer it), I'll explain to you what's really going on with Russia especially Putin. The era of colonization of the Soviet Union (Russia) has ended, many countries that were formerly colonized by the Soviet Union (Russia) have now separated themselves from the Soviet Union (Russia) and become independent countries again (including Ukraine). Here Russia/Putin don't understand the real situation, they don't understand that they are over (the Soviet Union). US NATO will not attack Russia (because of thousands of nuclear) even though Ukraine is no longer an ally of Russia, and vice versa Russia will not dare to attack the west. So here it looks like Putin is being paranoid, confused and doesn't think about the future of Russia's economy. Putin should think like China, even though China has a communist ideology they still cooperate widely with the west, and now China with a different ideology from the west is the second largest country in the world in terms of economy (unlike Russia which is getting worse). Russia's biggest problem is Putin being paranoid, uncontrollable and power hungry. Many Russians are dissatisfied with Putin's iron fist policy. Democracy no longer exists in Russia, which is ruled by only a handful of power-hungry people (Putin). Many people who speak out for their democratic rights in Russia are imprisoned or even deliberately killed. That is why Russia will never progress in terms of its economy and democracy. I am disappointed with countries like Syria, Yemen and Venezuela supporting the occupation carried out by Russia/Putin (even though their fate is being attacked by other countries too. IRONIC). They should be SILENT. Even though they are especially allied with Syria (even though Russia is actually only using Syria's strategic location as a base) with Russia (which is two-faced), they should stay in the right position. I am also disappointed with the comments of Iranian politicians about the Ukraine-Russia situation, they should have made their comments more wisely or else they should have kept quiet. We know Iran is friendly with Ukraine and Russia so Iran should be in a conciliatory position instead of making amateurish comments. What would happen if Russia attacked INDEPENDENT countries like Iran, Syria, Yemen and Venezuela? I don't support US NATO or Russia China, I just hate other countries attacking INDEPENDENT country, pity the innocent people of Ukraine who are victimized by the power-hungry maniac Mr Putin's paranoid! Iran and its allies must remain vigilant and careful with the two-sided politics of Russia/Putin, they are never willing to help. Iran still remember the S-300? Syria still remember the Israeli-Russian behind the scenes?
 
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This is what 190K troops gets you? The North they literally walked across the border uncontested. The border wasn’t even manned. The south lightly defended.

Ukraine was defending the SOF at the POC.

Shock and awe first 24 hours 1700 sorties were launched and Russian onboard defense systems on helicopters is quite alarming since a KA-52 was downed by a man pad. Ukraine doesn’t have much of an airforce to begin within nor a major mechanized military side either.

Honestly if Ukraine had to fight the Jihadi’s 2010-2015 from Syria. I’m pretty sure they would lose the whole country to jihadis.

This is a country that didn’t fire a single bullet to defend Crimea in 2014. They make Iraqi army look like Spartans at this point.
Ukraine has no real army. This will be a cakewalk for Russia. No comparison to Iraq at all. Sanctions irrelevant as Russia also carries a big economic counterstick. The assault phase will be wrapped up in a week. Maybe two. The major activity will be economic-diplomacy in the aftermath.
 

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