1) Seems like the era of American hegemony or global dominance that lasted since 1991 officially ended yesterday...There is no longer American hegemon or global policemen anymore.
World was multipolar prior to WWII, bipolar during the Cold War, unipolar since 1991 and now again we are moving to a multipolar world.
In 6-8 years China will surpass US in term of economy and by 2030 will have substantial military capabilities, Russia recovers Eastern Europe.
At the same time US has a debt of 130% of GDP, inability to stimulate economy through monetary or fiscal policies due to 0% Fed interest rate and massive debt and aging population....
2) Russian invasion of Ukraine is good for Iran. Now Russia will be sanctioned and isolated from the West and with emergence of a new "Iron Curtain" Russia will have to cooperate with Iran.
At the same time US, which wasted 20 years in the Middle East, will want to make a deal with Iran, so they could fully concentrate on Russia and China.
3) Historically on average armored brigades moved at a rate of 20-30km a day...So this war could last 2 weeks or 1 month...
Occupying entire Ukraine will require 400.000-500.000 troops and massive military spendings from Russia...So with 200.000 troops Russia probably wants to occupy Eastern Ukraine and establish a natural border on Dnepr river.
After this invasion there will be massive deployment of large NATO military assets in Eastern Europe and a new Cold War between the West and Russia...Poland and Romania will have to increase their military budgets and rebuild their militaries with American help in order to contain Russia.
4) At the current oil price 1 dollar should be 40 rubles, but its now 85 rubles...This is because Russia conducts policies aimed at keeping ruble artificially weak through the policy of the so called "budgetary rule".
Russia kept its currency artificially weak for the last 5 years in order to stimulate import substitution and boost non oil exports.
Of course new sanctions will weaken ruble even further but Russia is ready for this thanks to import substitution.
5) For Ukraine Russian invasion will be a catastrophe from economic point of view.
Russia will establish a puppet regime which will be sanctioned by the West....
18% of Ukrainian GDP comes from remittances of Ukrainian guest-workers in the European Union (in Poland, Czech Republic, Baltic states.)
70% of Ukrainian exports go to the European Union
Every year IMF bailout Ukraine by refinancing its soveregin debt.
Sanctions against the puppet regime in Ukraine will leave it without remittances, ability to export to European Union and without financial support...so there will be economic collapse and bankruptcy of Ukraine, which might increase dissatisfaction with Russian rule.
5) Video from 2014 by Peter Zeihan predicting Russia invading Ukraine (he is also the guy predicting Iran-Saudi war)