Iranian Chill Thread

[sha ah]

Interest rates in Iran are actually high compared to global standard, especially compared to the west. Arguably they could be raised but atleast Raisi and Khamenei are willing to listen to economists unlike the stubborn Erdogan who seems to be hell bent on annihilating Turkey's economy.

Iran's main issue is sanctions. If sanctions are lifted Iran's economy will do fine. Even now, despite all the sanctions and hardships, Iran's economy is still growing and is set to continue growing. Also inflation is set to fall gradually during the next few years as well.

Iran's economy this year surpassed Turkey and Saudi Arabia to become the 18th largest on the world. With a more moderate, liberal foreign policy/government Iran's GDP could easily be in the top 10. Unfortunately at the moment, much of Iran's economy is shrouded within the confines of the black market.

تفکرات مذهبی خلاف واقعیت هر جا که در اقتصاد وارد بشه اون‌جا به گوه کشیده می‌شه
نمونه‌اش ایران. نمونه‌اش ترکیه

جالب اینجاست که مشکل هر دو کشور هم یکی هست: نرخ سود بانکی بیش از حد پایین
بعد می‌گن اقتصاد اسلامی! انگار مشکلاتی که زمان صدر اسلام در اقتصاد بود با امروز یکی هست​

 

[QWECXZ]

Interest rates in Iran are actually high compared to global standard, especially compared to the west. Arguably they could be raised but atleast Raisi and Khamenei are willing to listen to economists unlike the stubborn Erdogan who seems to be hell bent on annihilating Turkey's economy.

Iran's main issue is sanctions. If sanctions are lifted Iran's economy will do fine. Even now, despite all the sanctions and hardships, Iran's economy is still growing and is set to continue growing. Also inflation is set to fall gradually during the next few years as well.

Iran's economy this year surpassed Turkey and Saudi Arabia to become the 18th largest on the world. With a more moderate, liberal foreign policy/government Iran could easily be in the top 10. Unfortunately at the moment, much of Iran's economy is in the black market.

This is satire. Right? Khamenei and Raeesi are willing to listen to economists? I agree that Erdogan is a special kind of idiot, but I wouldn't go as far as saying that Raeesi and Khamenei are willing to listen to economists. Iran and Turkey both suffer from corruption in top levels of governance.

You know very well that interest rates in Iran are high because inflation has been high for over a decade. Iran has experienced even 52% inflation in recent years. Yet, the interest rate has been lowered from 24% to 18% and the government insists to keep it low against all rational arguments.

GDP growth has little to do with misery index. Unemployment remains high. Inflation remains high. GINI coefficient has increased in the last 8 years. Your lower deciles of society are under unbearable pressure that has made them to riot at least twice in recent years. Even top deciles of society can hardly make their ends meet, except for people that have links with the system.

Sanctions do have an impact on Iran's economy, but the main problem in many markets is the lack of proper planning and involvement by the central bank and the government. The Rouhani administration followed a neo-liberal policy that resembled Rafsanjani's painful reforms, but even now Raeesi is not changing those policies. Just look at the housing prices in recent years. They have outperformed even the USD exchange ratio. This is while Iran's population has not increased much and we are witnessing close to zero, and sometimes even negative migration, from big cities to suburbs or satellite cities. This isn't because of sanctions. This is internal mismanagement.

 

[sha ah]

Iran nuclear talks to resume ‘soon’ after modest gains in Vienna

Negotiators trying to agree on a joint text that would act as the basis for a potential agreement.

www.aljazeera.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1471869742206140418

 

[sha ah]

Raesi has a panel of economists which he consults. He may not listen to everything they say but he doesn't go directly against fundamental economic principals like Erdogan.

There is corruption and mismanagement in Iran but at the same time there is corruption everywhere in the world. In the west they're just better at covering it up and usually it's institutionalized with lobbyists and legal loopholes.

Right now the entire world is experiencing inflation. In the US they say its 6% but I don't believe that it's that low for a second.

In Iran there's no way the government can increase the interest rate to 30%-50%. No government in the world will do this no matter how high inflation gets.

Iran's main issue is sanctions.after the nuclear deal. In 2015 there were articles praising Rohani for reducing inflation and spurring economic growth. The Trump sanctions are what led to the recent downturn in Iran's economy.

The difference between Iran and Turkey is that Iran is under some of the harshest sanctions that have ever been imposed on a nation in recent history. Turkey is a NATO member and has close economic ties with Europe. The driving force behind their economic woes is ERDOnomics.

If Erdogan had simply left the inflation rate up to the central bank, Turkey would be doing just fine right now. Instead he keeps lowering the interest rate expecting different results. He is truly living up to the definition of insanity. Now Turks working 40 hours a week have no choice but to cue up for bread.

In a few years an election is coming up but I highly doubt that Erdogan will let go of power. If he does he will most likely be arrested by the next administration.

Erdogan, his family and cronies have funneled too much money out of Turkey. Ever since the failed coup, he has become increasingly paranoid and irrational, blaming anything and everything on outside conspiracies. He sees enemies everywhere, at every corner.

I just feel sorry for ordinary Turks. This is just the beginning and their economy is already ruined. 1 US dollar will soon be worth 20 Lira or more. People are already leaving the country in swarms. We might even see a civil war in Turkey if things continue to worsen.

This is satire. Right? Khamenei and Raeesi are willing to listen to eomists? I agree that Erdogan is a special kind of idiot, but I wouldn't go as far as saying that Raeesi and Khamenei are willing to listen to economists. Iran and Turkey both suffer from corruption in top levels of governance.

You know very well that interest rates in Iran are high because inflation has been high for over a decade. Iran has experienced even 52% inflation in recent years. Yet, the interest rate has been lowered from 24% to 18% and the government insists to keep it low against all rational arguments.

GDP growth has little to do with misery index. Unemployment remains high. Inflation remains high. GINI coefficient has increased in the last 8 years. Your lower deciles of society are under unbearable pressure that has made them to riot at least twice in recent years. Even top deciles of society can hardly make their ends meet, except for people that have links with the system.

Sanctions do have an impact on Iran's economy, but the main problem in many markets is the lack of proper planning and involvement by the central bank and the government. The Rouhani administration followed a neo-liberal policy that resembled Rafsanjani's painful reforms, but even now Raeesi is not changing those policies. Just look at the housing prices in recent years. They have outperformed even the USD exchange ratio. This is while Iran's population has not increased much and we are witnessing close to zero, and sometimes even negative migration, from big cities to suburbs or satellite cities. This isn't because of sanctions. This is internal mismanagement.

 

[Stryker1982]

Iran more than doubles Revolutionary Guard’s budget in FY22 bill

Legislation for Iran's fiscal 2022 budget showns the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will receive $22 billion.

www.defensenews.com

if this is Government money to the tune of 22$ billion, then it doesn't include the IRGC's own revenue stream as well.

 

[Hack-Hook]

The person was wrong indeed. Religiosity is much stronger in Nāzi Ābād and Gharchak compared to Zaferānieh and Lavāsān...

As concerns national identity, a lot of it boils down to faith and culture. Both of these - in addition to all other criteria - will be out the window if Iran resorts to opening the floodgates of mass immigration like European nations did.

Last time this topic was discussed, it seems to me that you were suggesting your issue is only with sub-Saharan level fertility rates, not the 2.1 figure needed to ensure generational replacement. Now however, you seem to be claiming that even when it comes to generational replacement, other economic challenges must take precedence... as if there was an intrinsic desire to see Iran fall into the fatal trap of negative population growth, which can only be compensated with mass immigration and nothing else.

Notwithstanding the fact that unless Iran resorts to opting for mass immigration, its economy will go down the drain as soon as the proportion of elderly citizens compared to younger ones exceeds a certain threshold, because older people consume less and therefore production will suffer, and if production suffers then resources allocated to poverty reduction will decrease as well. Likewise, smaller population means smaller market and less consumption, less demand, thence decreased production. Scientific and technological innovation, which is essential to economic growth, will also dwindle with an ageing population.

In short: if we want to reduce poverty, then a healthy demographic growth - that is a fertility rate of between 2.1 and 2.5 (neither 4 or 5, nor the current, extremely dangerous rate that is below replacement level), is a precondition, because anything else will imperil the fundamentals of the national economy.

You talk about Islamic this and Islamic that . Well wonder how you don't knew that person was imam Ali.
And that's depend on what you call religion.

And no the economy won't go down just fix the sensles ridiculous retirement age which can be as low as 43 years old a
and tell me since when lying and cheating was part of our national identity ?
Wasn't helping others what we were known for . What happened so that get replaced with indeference apathy and taking out our phone and make an Instagram story.
And again no that's a case for a society which can provide job and education for them a healthy growth is good untill we reach there we need to keep the population where it is or have a very small growth.

For now what we need is fixing problems with economy and more importantly fix corruption

 

[aryobarzan]

Iran more than doubles Revolutionary Guard’s budget in FY22 bill

Legislation for Iran's fiscal 2022 budget showns the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will receive $22 billion.

www.defensenews.com

if this is Government money to the tune of 22$ billion, then it doesn't include the IRGC's own revenue stream as well.

The figures mentioned in this Zionist publication do not seem to make sense..I will wait for more credible report since I have not seen the defence budget so far ..Here is the budgets as per the above report:

IRGC budget:...................$22 billion dollars

Artesh(regular military):..$7.99 billion

Defence Ministry:...........$22 billion

Khatam HQ+joint HQ:........$1-2 billion (I estimated)

So if we add up Iran defence budget is around $55 billion dollars ..not sure how they got those numbers,!!!

 

[QWECXZ]

Raesi has a panel of economists which he consults. He may not listen to everything they say but he doesn't go directly against fundamental economic principals like Erdogan.

There is corruption and mismanagement in Iran but at the same time there is corruption everywhere in the world. In the west they're just better at covering it up and usually it's institutionalized with lobbyists and legal loopholes.

Right now the entire world is experiencing inflation. In the US they say its 6% but I don't believe that it's that low for a second.

In Iran there's no way the government can increase the interest rate to 30%-50%. No government in the world will do this no matter how high inflation gets.

Iran's main issue is sanctions.after the nuclear deal. In 2015 there were articles praising Rohani for reducing inflation and spurring economic growth. The Trump sanctions are what led to the recent downturn in Iran's economy.

The difference between Iran and Turkey is that Iran is under some of the harshest sanctions that have ever been imposed on a nation in recent history. Turkey is a NATO member and has close economic ties with Europe. The driving force behind their economic woes is ERDOnomics.

If Erdogan had simply left the inflation rate up to the central bank, Turkey would be doing just fine right now. Instead he keeps lowering the interest rate expecting different results. He is truly living up to the definition of insanity. Now Turks working 40 hours a week have no choice but to cue up for bread.

In a few years an election is coming up but I highly doubt that Erdogan will let go of power. If he does he will most likely be arrested by the next administration.

Erdogan, his family and cronies have funneled too much money out of Turkey. Ever since the failed coup, he has become increasingly paranoid and irrational, blaming anything and everything on outside conspiracies. He sees enemies everywhere, at every corner.

I just feel sorry for ordinary Turks. This is just the beginning and their economy is already ruined. 1 US dollar will soon be worth 20 Lira or more. People are already leaving the country in swarms. We might even see a civil war in Turkey if things continue to worsen.

Every president has a panel of economists. Rouhani had a panel of economists too. If people actually listened to economists instead of passing laws that support only their circle of friends we wouldn't be in this situation. By economists, I mean academics. Not politicians with an economics degree with conflict of interest that get close to the system to rip people off and protect their own assets.

I already debunked that Iran's problem is only sanctions. Most of it is mismanagement and corruption in the system. And I provided an example for it: housing market. Do explain how sanctions affect the housing market and why rent in some areas of Tehran has increased by 100% to 150%. I would like to see you try to link this with sanctions because all I see is mismanagement and lack of proper laws.

In fact, some of the worst inflation and rise in misery index in Iran happened at a time that Iran was facing no economic sanctions and had the best relations with Europe and China during Rafsanjani era. Also, even when Iran finally could access $100B after the JCPOA, we did not see a noticeable revaluation of the national currency.

It is quite possible to raise interest rate to 30%. It was 24% during Ahmadinejad's time and there were discussions at that time to increase it to 25% at the time. There's no upper limit for interest rate. Venezuela had an interest rate of 83% in 2002 just to mention an example.
The only reason that you think no country in the world pays that kind of interest rate is because no country today suffers from chronic high inflation like Iran does. Inflation in Iran in last 5 years has been higher than 30%. Most essentials goods have annually increased by at least 30% in average. Maybe only Venezuela can top Iran in this respect.

عزیزم این چیزهایی که الان داری باهاش ترکیه رو می‌کوبی برای ایرانی‌ها خاطرات چند سال گذشته هست
یادت رفته چطوری مردم هم دیگه رو تو صف مرغ زمان روحانی می‌زدن و چند کیلومتر صف می‌بستن؟
شرایط همین الان ترکیه از امروز مردم ایران باز بهتر هست

ضمناً چون ترکیه به توریسم و سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی وابسته هست و در این زمینه خوب هست کاهش ارزش پول ملی منجر به افزایش گردشگری و سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی می‌شه. چیزی که ایران ازش بی‌بهره هست. در واقع این دست از سیاست‌های تعدیل اقتصادی ممکن هست برای کشوری مثل ترکیه حتی اثرگذار باشه و منجر به تقویت اقتصاد در دراز مدت بشه هر چند که در کوتاه مدت اثرات بسیار شدیدی روی مردم خواهد داشت​

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

$55 billion dollars

Wow
So much budget
For military.

 

[QWECXZ]

Wow
So much budget
For military.

You do realize that he is criticizing that number and say that it is unreal and doesn't make sense. Right?

 

[Muhammad Saftain Anjum]

QUOTE="QWECXZ, post: 13477885, member: 26704"]
You do realize that he is criticizing that number and say that it is unreal and doesn't make sense. Right?
[/QUOTE]
Oh i just missed the whole point

 

[sha ah]

So you're saying that the interest rate should be increased to 50% ? That's not going to happen. Venezuela is a terrible example. Their economic policies haven't exactly worked.

At the same time Venezuela is under tremendous sanctions. The US and EU are withholding hundreds of billions worth of their gold and foreign currency reserves. Their excuse is that their government is undemocratic. Well what about the Saudis and the other US friendly regimes that are extremely authoritarian ? Obviously it's not so much about democracy but rather more about interests.

In any case economists aren't always right about everything. After all they brought us the recession of 2008 and now in the US they've printed more money in the last 5 years than in the last 100. Sooner or later we will see the reprocussions.

Rafsanjani became president right after the Iraq war. Irans economy was devastated and had to be rebuilt. At the same time the US was sanctioning Iran ever since the revolution, which didn't help matters.

I'm not sure why real estate prices have surged so much in Iran recently but much of it has to do with sanctions and the pressures from Covid which have caused worldwide inflation. Investors probably treated real estate as a safe haven. If you ask me it's nothing more than a bubble but only time will tell.

I'm not bashing Turkey. I feel sorry for its people but at the same time if you recall when the army tried to get rid of Erdogan the people got onto the streets and began attacking soldiers. Also when Erdogan's term limits ended the people willingly voted for his new presidential system. Like the saying goes you reap what you sow.

Every president has a panel of economists. Rouhani had a panel of economists too. If people actually listened to economists instead of passing laws that support only their circle of friends we wouldn't be in this situation. By economists, I mean academics. Not politicians with an economics degree with conflict of interest that get close to the system to rip people off and protect their own assets.

I already debunked that Iran's problem is only sanctions. Most of it is mismanagement and corruption in the system. And I provided an example for it: housing market. Do explain how sanctions affect the housing market and why rent in some areas of Tehran has increased by 100% to 150%. I would like to see you try to link this with sanctions because all I see is mismanagement and lack of proper laws.

In fact, some of the worst inflation and rise in misery index in Iran happened at a time that Iran was facing no economic sanctions and had the best relations with Europe and China during Rafsanjani era. Also, even when Iran finally could access $100B after the JCPOA, we did not see a noticeable revaluation of the national currency.

It is quite possible to raise interest rate to 30%. It was 24% during Ahmadinejad's time and there were discussions at that time to increase it to 25% at the time. There's no upper limit for interest rate. Venezuela had an interest rate of 83% in 2002 just to mention an example.
The only reason that you think no country in the world pays that kind of interest rate is because no country today suffers from chronic high inflation like Iran does. Inflation in Iran in last 5 years has been higher than 30%. Most essentials goods have annually increased by at least 30% in average. Maybe only Venezuela can top Iran in this respect.

عزیزم این چیزهایی که الان داری باهاش ترکیه رو می‌کوبی برای ایرانی‌ها خاطرات چند سال گذشته هست
یادت رفته چطوری مردم هم دیگه رو تو صف مرغ زمان روحانی می‌زدن و چند کیلومتر صف می‌بستن؟
شرایط همین الان ترکیه از امروز مردم ایران باز بهتر هست

ضمناً چون ترکیه به توریسم و سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی وابسته هست و در این زمینه خوب هست کاهش ارزش پول ملی منجر به افزایش گردشگری و سرمایه‌گذاری خارجی می‌شه. چیزی که ایران ازش بی‌بهره هست. در واقع این دست از سیاست‌های تعدیل اقتصادی ممکن هست برای کشوری مثل ترکیه حتی اثرگذار باشه و منجر به تقویت اقتصاد در دراز مدت بشه هر چند که در کوتاه مدت اثرات بسیار شدیدی روی مردم خواهد داشت​

 

[sha ah]

Global inflation rate map 2021

List of nations with the highest inflation rate. Iran is number 6. Note Turkey is now at around 25% because of recent events.

 

[QWECXZ]

So you're saying that the interwst rate should be increased to 50% ? That's not going to happen. Venezuela is a terrible example. Their economic policies haven't exactly worked.

At the same time Venezuela is under tremendous sanctions. The US and EU are withholding hundreds of billions worth of their gold and foreign currency reserves. Their excuse is that their government is undemocratic. Well what about the Saudis and the other US friendly regimes that are extremely authoritarian ? Obviously it's not so much about democracy but rather more about interests.

In any case economists aren't always right about everything. After all they brought us the recession of 2008 and now in the US they've printed more money in the last 5 years than in the last 100. Sooner or later we will see the reprocussions.

Rafsanjani became president right after the Iraq war. Irans economy was devastated and had to be rebuilt. At the same time the US was sanctioning Iran ever since the revolution, which didn't help matters.

I'm not sure why real estate prices have surged so much in Iran recently but much of it has to do with sanctions and the pressures from Covid which have caused worldwide inflation. Investors probably treated real estate as a safe haven. If you ask me it's nothing more than a bubble but only time will tell.

I'm not bashing Turkey. I feel sorry for its people but at the same time if you recall when the army tried to get rid of Erdogan the people got onto the streets and began attacking soldiers. Also when Erdogan's term limits ended the people willingly voted for his new presidential system. Like the saying goes you reap what you sow.

I didn't say that. I am saying that interest rate must be adjusted according to inflation so people would not pull their money out of banks and the government can continue to control liquidity. Uncontrolled liquidity reduces the government's ability to control the economy and it leads to problems like hoarding of essential goods, dollar, gold, etc. If Raeesi wants to control inflation and devaluation of the national currency, interest rate must be increased to at least 21% for 1401 and 24% for 1402. Faith in stock market has to be restored. Also, we need a credit system for loans and new priorities. Our banking system is truly dysfunctional.

Venezuela is going through a nationalization effort that is cutting the hands of the Americans and others from her national resources. It is similar to what happened to Iran during Mosaddegh and nationalization of Iran's oil.

Rafsanjani pushed for structural adjustment programs dictated by the IMF. Nearly all Latin American countries that went through the structural adjustment programs that the IMF suggested continue to suffer from serious economic problems such as high inflation, high unemployment, devaluation of national currency, etc. The only country that could successfully finish those structural adjustments was Brazil (which had a huge potential for economic growth anyway). I am not surprised that the reformist government of Rouhani followed similar policies, but it is surprising for me that since when Raeesi has come to power, no meaningful change in the government's economic policies has been announced. It seems that we are going to witness more of the same for another 8 years.

Today, Iran's economy is in a situation that is worse than after the Iraq-Iran war. Many sectors of the economy are going through recession, but we suffer from high inflation at the same. The reason that we are going through high inflation while in recession is because the government does not control the price of essential goods, housing, etc. Liberal economic policies do not work for Iran in the current situation. The government needs to intervene and bring the situation under control.

The government has completely left the housing market uncontrolled. It is not difficult to force landlords to increase rent by only a certain amount compared to last year. All rent contracts must be registered. If a landlord is forced to increase this year's price only by a certain amount compared to last year's registered contract, or else he would be forced to pay high taxes, the problem will be resolved very soon. The only reason that the government doesn't do this is because many of the real estate properties in big cities is owned by powerful people in the system.

It's a conspiracy theory, but I think the coup in Turkey was in fact a show staged by Erdogan to remove his enemies from the Turkish Army to consolidate his power.

 

[aryobarzan]

I didn't say that. I am saying that interest rate must be adjusted according to inflation so people would not pull their money out of banks and the government can continue to control liquidity. Uncontrolled liquidity reduces the government's ability to control the economy and it leads to problems like hoarding of essential goods, dollar, gold, etc. If Raeesi wants to control inflation and devaluation of the national currency, interest rate must be increased to at least 21% for 1401 and 24% for 1402. Faith in stock market has to be restored. Also, we need a credit system for loans and new priorities. Our banking system is truly dysfunctional.

Venezuela is going through a nationalization effort that is cutting the hands of the Americans and others from her national resources. It is similar to what happened to Iran during Mosaddegh and nationalization of Iran's oil.

Rafsanjani pushed for structural adjustment programs dictated by the IMF. Nearly all Latin American countries that went through the structural adjustment programs that the IMF suggested continue to suffer from serious economic problems such as high inflation, high unemployment, devaluation of national currency, etc. The only country that could successfully finish those structural adjustments was Brazil (which had a huge potential for economic growth anyway). I am not surprised that the reformist government of Rouhani followed similar policies, but it is surprising for me that since when Raeesi has come to power, no meaningful change in the government's economic policies has been announced. It seems that we are going to witness more of the same for another 8 years.

Today, Iran's economy is in a situation that is worse than after the Iraq-Iran war. Many sectors of the economy are going through recession, but we suffer from high inflation at the same. The reason that we are going through high inflation while in recession is because the government does not control the price of essential goods, housing, etc. Liberal economic policies do not work for Iran in the current situation. The government needs to intervene and bring the situation under control.

The government has completely left the housing market uncontrolled. It is not difficult to force landlords to increase rent by only a certain amount compared to last year. All rent contracts must be registered. If a landlord is forced to increase this year's price only by a certain amount compared to last year's registered contract, or else he would be forced to pay high taxes, the problem will be resolved very soon. The only reason that the government doesn't do this is because many of the real estate properties in big cities is owned by powerful people in the system.

It's a conspiracy theory, but I think the coup in Turkey was in fact a show staged by Erdogan to remove his enemies from the Turkish Army to consolidate his power.

RENT control and boosting of interest rate as a stop gap measure may be necessary untill two things happens:

That 4 million low cost housing becomes reality and the pace of "production" accelerates..two items that were utterly neglected by that moron Rohani for eight years.
Even in Canda with progressive laws we have strict rent controls (tied directly to inflation)..The interest rates can be brought back when inflation is lowered and that only happens when "production" speeds up....