Iranian Chill Thread

[Dariush the Great]

I tried to search for his comment but seems like his been tagged randomly and out of nowhere by @925boy There is no comments of that poster..

It was me who first tagged that Turkish user. But there is a history to it. I wouldn't pull over someone into this section if there was no history behind it, right?

The user i quoted has shown his anti-Iranian character many times on this forum.. using insulting and racist terms. I just pulled his ear to the thread to show him that Iran is helping Turkey at the moment in containing the wildfires. I would have liked to know if he still had anything bad to say about Iran or just simply say... ''Thank you''.

 

[Stryker1982]

There is no need for Iran herself to engage Israel to not draw others in but the key here is to let Hezbollah engage them.. Conventionally it has issues dealing with highly motivated none-state actors like Hezbollah or Hamas. The Iron dome has proven to not be sound. In a direct conventional war it can't overrun none-state actors if it became gritty and to the last man type of scenario. They don't have ground forces equipment advantage in the larger region but they do have advantage over the two none state actors bordering her but not enough to the scale where they can overrun them because they have tunnel networks, plus anti-tank weapons plus heavy and light weapons including the capabilities to strike all of Israel's assets and cities having such a clash with these none-state actors could ruin Israel's infrastructure forget about fighting a state actor but they won't be able to collapse Israel as an state.

Lebanon's economy is on the decline anyways I think it could be high time to have another short Israel-Hezbollah conflict this time around. Hezbollah should let it go completely 5000 missiles by hour because Israel will in return target the infrastratuture tit for tat is the way to go.. This will weakend Israel since the infrastructure will take significiant damage.. Just sit tight and watch as for engaging Hezbollah conventionally they won't do this because they know this is what Hezbollah wants to lock them into South Lebanon and force a conventional engagement. The regular Israeli Soldiers resolve is not that high which is why they are terrified of engaging a Hamas or PIJ who they know are batshit crazy and not intimidated by death whatsoever. facing an opponent whos not intimidated by death is scarier than death itself. The random joe Israeli soldier doesn't wanna die.. It is key to know your opponent first and in my opinion the revolution guard haven't really figured this out yet. The key element is to let another Israel-Hezbollah war perhaps not now but in 1-2 years from now occur.. Doing it once a decade to just see where they are in weaponry systems.. It is like simulation tests. Subhanallah Allah said the truth about this people and it stands unchanged to this day and his words upon them have always been activated amongst them ''He says they won't fight you except from behind walls throwing stones from a far and if they fight you they won't fight you but except little'' If a motivated opponent was to make a quick incursion all tho not none-state actors but state actors it could be over immediately as the Israelis will fight but little and most of them will be busy on how to get outta of there immediately and majority will leave before an incursion is imminent.. Have you seen the state of the Israeli civilians these people are not made for war most of them are just families and soft people and very greedy and selfish each family will seek to get there people out to safety this will be there instinct reaction they can't bear tough situation the jewish greediness is legendary will always manifest itself plus they don't have the manpower for conventional clashes nor the stragetic depth in taking many hits this could technically be over very very quickly.. As Sun Tzu said every battle is won before it even starts..

I agree with you 100%, but some people seem to think Iran is able to force Hezbollah to do whatever it asks, on the contrary, it was really Hezbollah that is making its own moves in Lebenon and Syria. We know they are quite capable in causing much more serious problems, greater problems than Israel has ever seen

but...

From my personal impression, I think if Hezbollah wants to fight Israel, alot of Lebanese people will hate them for bringing infrastructure destruction to their country, their national army is only useful for fighting protestors, they are economically at a point where they even have trouble providing food for their national soldiers. This is how bad they are, so a war ontop of that I think is incredibly unpopular, and I don't think Iran can force them on this issue. Who will pay for the costs of the damage, lebanon can't afford it, their port is still destroyed. Lebanese society is also quite liberal anti-conflict compared to the people in Gaza as we have seen.

 

[Stryker1982]

I don't think so. Open war with Iran means flattening of Israeli cities. It means severe disruption to Israeli life. We all witnessed what those homemade Palestinian rockets did to Israeli infrastructure and daily life. Now imagine Iranian Ballistic Missile warheads slamming into occupied territories at a speed of Mach 4-5. The terror and shock it will cause is just too great to comprehend. And i am only talking about BM's being launched directly from Iranian territory towards occupied Palestine let alone daily Hezbollahi, Qods force assault on Israel. Israelis know fully well the cost of open warfare hence their preference for the never-ending shadow war.

It is not only Israel that is afraid of the cost but also other powers such as the US and the UK. You can see their helplessness in the recent attack on the Israeli ship.. apart from issuing statements, imposing sanctions etc. they never dare to openly confront Iran. Their ''revenge'' will be through the shadow war as usual.

IMO, Islamic Republic under Khamenei will not back down. So the shadow war will continue until the Supreme leader dies. We still do not know who his replacement is and even known he will never have the same courage and determination as the current supreme leader in confronting Israel.

I partly agree with you. Despite a decade of threats, we have not seen Israel airforce come to Iran, we have never seen a strike on Iranian soil. It appears indeed, they are worried about the consequences. I am confident with Bavars-373 and S-300PMUs in Tehran (not to mention other equipment), any of their pilots that try to operate near this city will be buried. They can only strike once with their tankers as well, by the time the Israeli pilots return with their tankers to Ben Gurion, it should already be brimming with smoke and fire. It will be difficult for them to sustain sorties from such far distances.

That being said, we cannot keep these sanctions on Iran forever, it simply won't do, if the west does not like Iranian demands, then we have no choice but to up enrichment to 90%. I wish we had gone the Pakistan route, but we are way to late. Their program started before the revolution even started.

Going to 90% opens a whole host of new scenarios, in which case the Americans who are too afraid to park their fleet inside the Persian gulf will have to be involved. That's when things get complicated. We'd need atleast 10,000 ballistic missiles to fight them both.

The British bastards who are good for causing famines in Iran and Pakistan, don't even dare react to the death of their citizen, if this was 50 years ago, they'd bomb us just for that. Now look at them...

I for one, hope that Iran secretly has those 5 50kt warheads that was originally planned.

 

[925boy]

I'd have to agree with Sha ah here. Iran's main interest in Afghanistan is simply ensuring instability does not spill over to it's borders, if Iran feels comfortable with the Taliban, then it would not be much of an issue, but if the Taliban wishes to harbor anti-Iran elements inside the country, we could see change in attitude.

Qods force "negotiated"most/all of this during the just-ended US occupation of Afghanistan. Times have changed and Taliban almost didnt survive if not for Iranian help, IN DIFFERENT FORMS, at one point Pakistan either was too broke to help Taliban during the war, or Pakistan was just not supplying Taliban with their needs, but Iran stepped in- you gotta praise Quds force- their efforts with the Taliban have started paying off for Iranian nation.

 

[925boy]

The term ''subhuman'' can be used here very well.

LOOK BRO! Turkey is on fire right now, and i feel for all those citizens dealing with it, but like @aryobarzan already said(i hope i'm quoting the right person) - Iran CAN be self sufficient, Turkey CANNOT - Turkey is inherently poor and MUST have trade and energy imports AND NATO's blessings and contracts to survive and be Ok with itself. LOOK now!

 

[Shawnee]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423621903613313028

گور پدر نیمروز و هرات
فقط غضنفر بانک

 

[Stryker1982]

Israel cannot fight Iran alone without the support of the United States. It seems apparent they are trying to utilize this opportunity to create an international consensus on Iran, in which case they may be able to receive the support they desire through lobbying. They are working round the clock for this, but will they directly engage on Iranian soil? That's the question, probably not but a limited 1 week conflict cannot be ruled out. The British can also not be ruled out, but I do not think they have the willpower.

A 1 week war will be in Iran's favor.

A 1 month war may be or may not be.
A 3 month war will be bad. Iran does not have the economy to fight high intensity conflict for 3 months

 

[Maula Jatt]

Israel cannot fight Iran alone without the support of the United States. It seems apparent they are trying to utilize this opportunity to create an international consensus on Iran, in which case they may be able to receive the support they desire through lobbying. They are working round the clock for this, but will they directly engage on Iranian soil? That's the question, probably not but a limited 1 week conflict cannot be ruled out. The British can also not be ruled out, but I do not think they have the willpower.

A 1 week war will be in Iran's favor.

They will do a bombing campaign like in Libya

In 80s under Reagan, no actual regime change

 

[Stryker1982]

They will do a bombing campaign like in Libya

In 80s under Reagan, no actual regime change

If you are referring to a NATO force against Iran, then that would change the situation drastically against Iran of course, but if you are speaking of Iran vs. Israel alone, then I am not too worried if it is a limited conflict, but the longer it goes, the worse it becomes for Iran because the Israelis will get billions in free money, and support, while we will have a weaker and weaker financial situation. It has to be short.

The Israelis alone would not be able to overthrow, they have difficulty even reaching Iran let alone conducting high sortie rates to actually break the back of Iran.

 

[Shawnee]

Any infrastructure war is in Iran’s favor when everyone around reaches 0-0-0.

Long wars are inherently infrastructure wars too.

 

[TheImmortal]

They will do a bombing campaign like in Libya

In 80s under Reagan, no actual regime change

And Iran would unravel the energy markets causing implosion of the derivatives market which is a trillion plus market.

A couple drones took down most of Saudi Arabia’s oil production imagine what 1000 missiles aimed at Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Libya, Qatar, and take over of Iraqi oil fields can do to world oil prices.

Iran has something much more destructive than a nuclear bomb and that is the ability to cause a global recession and massive disruption of financial markets.

 

[TheImmortal]

For those that doubted Iran’s mastery of honeycomb structure

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423691783633047552

 

[Stryker1982]

And Iran would unravel the energy markets causing implosion of the derivatives market which is a trillion plus market.

This is something serious to consider, derivates market is in a serious bubble, and disruption to it, would hurt alot of the global élite.

 

[TheImmortal]

This is something serious to consider, derivates market is in a serious bubble, and disruption to it, would hurt alot of the global élite.

Not to mention derivatives market has not priced in a mega black swan event like a massive disruption to oil.

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1423406623029137408