Iranian Chill Thread

[925boy]

So, I think it's a fair point to ask how Qatar is our friend if this friendship hasn't done us much good in tangible ways.

There are a few STRONG tangible ways its helped Iran:
1. Access to USD. Between Qatar's "donations" of USD to IRan to Iran politely extorting available dollars from Qatar, it gives Iran ANOTHER valuable avenue to lighten the pressure and effect ofsanctions..dont forget Qatar is a sizeable economy..a rich one...super high GDP per capita...this is a honey pot financially for Iran. Iran is still under heavy sanctions...and the extra money?? in billions of dollars???? Iran needs that..pressure in Iraq might go up for Iran, or soon, so Iran needs more diverse avenues more than ever.

2. Leverage over and access to KSA: Being friends with Qatar could give Iran another access point in its regional struggle with KSA.

3. Disrupt unity in GCC and OIC- Having Qatar on Iran's side politically has no downside...and Qatar standing up for Iran in ISlamic organizations is helpful to Iran and building a more favorable public opinion of IRan.

4. Access to militarty info and intelligence- Al-Udeid which houses US military personnel is in Qatar...with access to Qatar, IRan could gather more and better intel on US troops and installations in Qatar.

As for mediation between Iran and Arabs, we have Iraq, Oman and Pakistan for that.

Oman seems to be the most effective and they havent broken through with any better deals recently. Pakistan is out and in the US camp (just too broke and in need of US military gifts to oppose US).

We don't need a fourth mediator.

Try as many as you need until one works well...you actually dont even have more than 2 real and good mediators...look at it..when it comes to countries that do mediation, you have more quantity, and less quality.

As for our military ties, according to you, I don't think it's beneficial to our regional interests to militarily defend Qatar against the Saudis. Why would we do that?

Because, JUST LIKE IN YEMEN and SYRIA, it gives Iran a chance to create another foothold with great potential on the Arabian penninsula...which is has strategic and economic value..dont you see TUrkey has troops in Qatar on the ground currently??? thats great VIP access for TUrkey on that penninsula.

How would we benefit from it?

I told you above.

 

[Salmanov]

No "Khaliji" Arab will ever be a friend with Iran..the most they will be "Neutral "towards Iran. As for MBS his days are numbered..even his best (BFF) now consider him TOXIC ..

Well if they they boycotted Qatar based of that kike order than they got together because the same kike told them so no one needs such friends lol

 

[Hack-Hook]

One of the better strategic analyses I've read lately:

The Coming Turkish-Iranian Confrontation

It is true that at present the Turks and the Iranians are playing nice with each other, but these are ephemeral moments; their respective imperatives will lead them to collide with one another regardless of their subjective preferences.

newlinesmag.com

Bokhari argues that Iran has defeated Saudi in the fight for regional supremacy, and that there is only one player left that is willing and able to challenge Iran's regional influence: Turkey. This power struggle will define the Middle East for the decades to come.

Active front to watch now: Sinjar.

the article is based on one flawed argument so, I have my reservation about it.

the problem with the article is that Iran based in foreign policy in the region on being Shia or Sunni
also it wont consider the point that in this round of conflict iran actually supported Azerbaijan stand not Armenia

 

[925boy]

One of the better strategic analyses I've read lately:

The Coming Turkish-Iranian Confrontation

It is true that at present the Turks and the Iranians are playing nice with each other, but these are ephemeral moments; their respective imperatives will lead them to collide with one another regardless of their subjective preferences.

newlinesmag.com

Bokhari argues that Iran has defeated Saudi in the fight for regional supremacy, and that there is only one player left that is willing and able to challenge Iran's regional influence: Turkey. This power struggle will define the Middle East for the decades to come.

Active front to watch now: Sinjar.

Yup, this makes sense with what i've already been suspecting myself. I've said it before that im surprised Iran and TUrkey havent already started exchanging blows considering how they keep showing up on opposite sides in regional battlefields. This will be interesting. Turkey will probably find out the hard way that white Christian man(NATO) wont die for Muslim Turkey..no matter what..

 

[Surenas]

the problem with the article is that Iran based in foreign policy in the region on being Shia or Sunni

That is not what he says, though. In fact, he argues that it isn't really a religious conflict but a geopolitical one with significant sectarian undertones. Which is correct imo.

also it wont consider the point that in this round of conflict iran actually supported Azerbaijan stand not Armenia

Iran did not support Azerbaijan.

Iran was caught with its pants down when Azerbaijan under leadership of Turkey invaded Armenia and managed to conquer large swaths of territory next to its northern border; in a extremely sensitive region where some dream of carving up Iranian soil for their ethno-nationalist project.

The fact that Iran did not notice Azerbaijan's military build-up and overall intention to initiate a conflict, will go down in history as one of its most significant intelligence failures.

Iran only paid lip service (claiming support) for Azerbaijan when Azerbaijani victory was basically inevitable and after some traitors within Iran where voicing support for Baku and even sabotaged military supplies to Armenia.

I'm sure that the war in Karabkah has been nothing more than a wake-up call for Iran, and that it is adjusting to the new geopolitical reality. That is why Iran is now mobilizing its allies in Sinjar to prevent further Turkish advancements.

 

[Surenas]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1364162800227135488

https://twitter.com/x/status/1364162795516948480

https://twitter.com/x/status/1364237182555344898

 

[Salmanov]

That is not what he says, though. In fact, he argues that it isn't really a religious conflict but a geopolitical one with significant sectarian undertones. Which is correct imo.



Iran did not support Azerbaijan.

Iran was caught with its pants down when Azerbaijan under leadership of Turkey invaded Armenia and managed to conquer large swaths of territory next to its northern border; in a extremely sensitive region where some dream of carving up Iranian soil for their ethno-nationalist project.

The fact that Iran did not notice Azerbaijan's military build-up and overall intention to initiate a conflict, will go down in history as one of its most significant intelligence failures.

Iran only paid lip service (claiming support) for Azerbaijan when Azerbaijani victory was basically inevitable and after some traitors within Iran where voicing support for Baku and even sabotaged military supplies to Armenia.

I'm sure that the war in Karabkah has been nothing more than a wake-up call for Iran, and that it is adjusting to the new geopolitical reality. That is why Iran is now mobilizing its allies in Sinjar to prevent further Turkish advancements.

As if Iran wanted to support Armenia someone could have stopped them?!
Iran base it’s foreign policy on religion not nationalism so it will loose supporters coming Arab and south Asian and afghan Shias in they support Armenia against Shia Azerbaijan. Yes we know their government is anti religion kgb communist but Azerbaijani in general are Shia

 

[sha ah]

Iran lost nothing from the Armenian-Azeri conflict. Iran successfully deterred either side from spilling the fighting over its borders. Several Azeri helicopters and other aircraft were shot down by Iranian air defenses and if I remember correctly no Iranian civilians perished from the conflict.

If anything Iran generated much needed revenue from selling the Armenians industrial supplies, fuel and weaponry. Iran has always taken a neutral stance in regards to this conflict, even in the early 90's when it began. However nobody can prevent Iran from selling weapons to whomever it pleases.

Like I've stated earlier. The Armenians failed to keep up with Azerbaijan's weapons procurement and they stuck to their obsolete tactics from the 90's. The Armenians should have invested in beefing up their missile stockpiles, air defenses and most importantly UAV technology. If the Armenians had acquired a large number of UAV's, including suicide drones ( for example like the ones that hit the Aramco sites in Saudi Arabia ), it would have made a huge difference in my opinion.

They should have also built extensive tunnel/bunker networks that would have enabled them to transport their troops and equipment under cover. Instead they sent troops to the front in large convoys and they mostly kept their equipment like artillery in static positions, with barely any decoys or effort put into concealment.

At this point the Armenians have become more or less a Russian vassal, but in any case in the coming years the Armenians will have to invest more heavily in modernizing their armed forces to some extent. This is where Iran can generate some revenue. Realistically nobody can prevent Iran from buying or selling weapons as it pleases. Azeri's/Turks might not like it but there's nothing they can do about it.

Aliyev has even recently implied that Yerevan historically belonged to Azerbaijan, however these claims as laughable, along with implications regarding Iranian Azerbaijan. Iran sternly warned Aliyev that if any radical Syrian mercenaries even try to threaten Iran's borders that Iran could absolutely decimate them.

For Iran, it's proxies are one thing, but Iran's territorial integrity is an absolute red line. Recently Iran has been building up new underground bunker/tunnel networks in Iran's north. If anyone tries anything, whether Turkey or Azerbaijan, they have to deal with the consequences of having thousands of missiles rain down on their heads and that would just be the beginning.

That is not what he says, though. In fact, he argues that it isn't really a religious conflict but a geopolitical one with significant sectarian undertones. Which is correct imo.



Iran did not support Azerbaijan.

Iran was caught with its pants down when Azerbaijan under leadership of Turkey invaded Armenia and managed to conquer large swaths of territory next to its northern border; in a extremely sensitive region where some dream of carving up Iranian soil for their ethno-nationalist project.

The fact that Iran did not notice Azerbaijan's military build-up and overall intention to initiate a conflict, will go down in history as one of its most significant intelligence failures.

Iran only paid lip service (claiming support) for Azerbaijan when Azerbaijani victory was basically inevitable and after some traitors within Iran where voicing support for Baku and even sabotaged military supplies to Armenia.

I'm sure that the war in Karabkah has been nothing more than a wake-up call for Iran, and that it is adjusting to the new geopolitical reality. That is why Iran is now mobilizing its allies in Sinjar to prevent further Turkish advancements.

 

[Arian]

But Qatar IS in Iran's pocket...more or less...and especially after that deadly blocked Qatar's fellow ARab "brothers" enforced on Qatar? Iran literally saved Iran...Qatar is in the Iranian camp(as much as an active proud wealthy ARab GCCmember can be that is). Iran has played patient and nice with Qatar...maybe because of them both sharing south pars and north dome gas field together...they are motivated to keep peace..Qatar also knows its too small to fight Iran, so there is no military tension..lol

Qatar knows its too small to fight literally any country, that's why it has always acted in coordination with another regional power like Turkey or Saudi Arabia to further its interests. Qatar is far from being in Iran's pocket. Qatar is in Turkey's pocket at the moment and facts (not theories) prove that. There's nothing to speculate here. Just check facts and you will see that Qatar is much closer to Turkey than it will ever be to Iran in the near future.

There are a few STRONG tangible ways its helped Iran:
1. Access to USD. Between Qatar's "donations" of USD to IRan to Iran politely extorting available dollars from Qatar, it gives Iran ANOTHER valuable avenue to lighten the pressure and effect ofsanctions..dont forget Qatar is a sizeable economy..a rich one...super high GDP per capita...this is a honey pot financially for Iran. Iran is still under heavy sanctions...and the extra money?? in billions of dollars???? Iran needs that..pressure in Iraq might go up for Iran, or soon, so Iran needs more diverse avenues more than ever.

We are smuggling the green paper from all of our neighbors, including Iraq, Turkey and Afghanistan. I don't know how much your point is true, but it is certainly not free for us. It's not like Qatar is giving us free money. Do you know the volume of Iran's exports to Qatar? It's a very low number about 300 million dollars. Do you know the volume of Turkey's exports to Qatar? It was about 1.3 billion dollars in 2019. Do you see the difference?

2. Leverage over and access to KSA: Being friends with Qatar could give Iran another access point in its regional struggle with KSA.

If Saudi Arabia decides to annex Qatar, the war won't last even one week. Just like how the exhausted Iraqi army successfully invaded and annexed Kuwait in less than 48 hours.

3. Disrupt unity in GCC and OIC- Having Qatar on Iran's side politically has no downside...and Qatar standing up for Iran in ISlamic organizations is helpful to Iran and building a more favorable public opinion of IRan.

The question is not whether it is good or bad to have Qatar on Iran's side. The question is whether Qatar is really on Iran's side, or if Qatar is playing Iran.

4. Access to militarty info and intelligence- Al-Udeid which houses US military personnel is in Qatar...with access to Qatar, IRan could gather more and better intel on US troops and installations in Qatar.

Do you seriously think that the Qatari government would share military intelligence on the US forces to Iran? Seriously? If they wanted to share intelligence with us, we would've known about the US plan to assassinate General Soleimani.

Oman seems to be the most effective and they havent broken through with any better deals recently. Pakistan is out and in the US camp (just too broke and in need of US military gifts to oppose US).

Pakistan is in China's camp at the moment and they're not as pro-Saudi as they were a decade ago. Update your information please. Although I don't trust Pakistan completely because the political atmosphere in Pakistan may change rapidly with a new Prime Minister. Oman has never acted hostile against Iran. Just a decade ago Qatar was one of the most hostile countries towards us in the Persian Gulf region. Oman also hosts a significant number of Baloch people and other ethnic Iranian groups that have lived there for hundreds of years.

Try as many as you need until one works well...you actually dont even have more than 2 real and good mediators...look at it..when it comes to countries that do mediation, you have more quantity, and less quality.

Do you seriously think that Iran's relations with the USA or Saudi Arabia are in their current shape because we don't have enough mediators? Europe, Japan, Turkey, Brazil, Russia, China, all have mediated between Iran and the Western world and our Arab neighbors. Do you think Qatar holds any weight compared to them?

The problem between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or Iran and the United States, is not something that can be resolved through mediation. Just simple as that.

Because, JUST LIKE IN YEMEN and SYRIA, it gives Iran a chance to create another foothold with great potential on the Arabian penninsula...which is has strategic and economic value..dont you see TUrkey has troops in Qatar on the ground currently??? thats great VIP access for TUrkey on that penninsula.

I told you above.

You don't get it, my friend. Qatar is no Syria or Yemen. Qataris are one of the world's richest people driving some of the world's most expensive cars and living some of the world's laziest lifestyles. They are not going to form a resistance like the poor people of Yemen. Not now, not even 50 years later.

The reason that the Syrian regime or the Houthi people have not stabbed us in the back is because they know and firmly believe that they will be defeated as soon as they lose Iran. They do not have many options. So, they have to stand with Iran. That's not true about Qatar. Qatar has many options and almost all of them are better than Iran. Comparing Qatar to Yemen or Syria is just wrong.

 

[sha ah]

The US airforce has admitted that the F-35 has FAILED costing the US taxpayers 1.7 TRILLION dollars

Apparently the F-35 is too heavy and requires far too much intensive and expensive maintenance. The US airforce now plans on only flying them part time. They also stated that they want to develop a new low cost, easy to maintain 4.5 generation jet.

I remember reading in an article last year which stated that the F-35 had over 700 deficiencies that needed to be resolved. I guess Turkey dodged a bullet with this one. Canada as well.

The U.S. Air Force Just Admitted The F-35 Stealth Fighter Has Failed

The U.S. Air Force’s chief of staff wants the service to develop an affordable, lightweight fighter to replace hundreds of aging F-16s and complement a small fleet of sophisticated F-35 stealth fighters. But an affordable, lightweight fighter is exactly what the F-35 was first conceived to be.

www.forbes.com

quotes from the article above:

With a sticker price of around $100 million per plane, including the engine, the F-35 is expensive. While stealthy and brimming with high-tech sensors, it’s also maintenance-intensive, buggy and unreliable.

The F-35 is a Ferrari, Brown told reporters last Wednesday. “You don’t drive your Ferrari to work every day, you only drive it on Sundays.

What about student loans, water or the homeless? Outrage follows report $1.7 trillion F-35 program is now considered a failure

A tacit admission by the US Air Force that the F-35 has failed its main mission has triggered an outpouring of outrage from Americans who think the stealth fighter’s gargantuan budget could have been better spent on other things.

www.rt.com

quotes from the article above:

A tacit admission by the US Air Force that the F-35 has failed its main mission has triggered an outpouring of outrage from Americans who think the stealth fighter’s gargantuan budget could have been better spent on other things.

Frustration with Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation stealth jet flooded Twitter on Wednesday, after Forbes magazine published a story about how USAF commissioning a study into a new, cheaper and lighter fighter amounts to “a tacit admission that the F-35 has failed.”

“We could have used this cash to cancel student loans for every person in America,”... “That's enough to house all homeless people in the United States 28 times over,”tweeted Robert Reich, Labor secretary in the Clinton administration.

It announced a tactical aviation study ordered by USAF Chief of Staff General Charles Q. Brown Jr, looking for a “clean sheet design” of something he called a “fourth-and-a half/fifth-gen minus” aircraft.

 

[Surenas]

Iran lost nothing from the Armenian-Azeri conflict. Iran successfully deterred either side from spilling the fighting over its borders. Several Azeri helicopters and other aircraft were shot down by Iranian air defenses and if I remember correctly no Iranian civilians perished from the conflict.

It was caught off-guard, stood idle as other regional powers advanced their interests at its expense and had to cope with one of its northern neighbours, that has extensive relations with Israel, changing the contours of the area's borders.

By the way, there is a semi military coup happening right now in Armenia. Why? Because yesterday the Armenian PM criticized the performance of the Russian Iskandar missiles in the Karabkah war, claiming that they did not explode or when they did, only with 10% of their claimed capacity. And now the Russians have become mad because the capabilities of their weapons got ridiculed, and now the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Force is demanding the resignation of PM Pashinyan (likely under Russian pressure).

Time for Iran to put more effort in marketing its weaponry in Armenia.

 

[aryobarzan]

It was caught off-guard, stood idle as other regional powers advanced their interests at its expense and had to cope with one of its northern neighbours, that has extensive relations with Israel, changing the contours of the area's borders.

By the way, there is a semi military coup happening right now in Armenia. Why? Because yesterday the Armenian PM criticized the performance of the Russian Iskandar missiles in the Karabkah war, claiming that they did not explode or when they did, only with 10% of their claimed capacity. And now the Russians have become mad because the capabilities of their weapons got ridiculed, and now the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Force is demanding the resignation of PM Pashinyan (likely under Russian pressure).

Time for Iran to put more effort in marketing its weaponry in Armenia.

It was caught off-guard, stood idle as other regional powers advanced their interests at its expense and had to cope with one of its northern neighbours, that has extensive relations with Israel, changing the contours of the area's borders.

By the way, there is a semi military coup happening right now in Armenia. Why? Because yesterday the Armenian PM criticized the performance of the Russian Iskandar missiles in the Karabkah war, claiming that they did not explode or when they did, only with 10% of their claimed capacity. And now the Russians have become mad because the capabilities of their weapons got ridiculed, and now the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Force is demanding the resignation of PM Pashinyan (likely under Russian pressure).

Time for Iran to put more effort in marketing its weaponry in Armenia.

Marketing already done..look at the "cutting edge tech" thread in the middle east forum..lol..

Marketing already done..look at the "cutting edge tech" thread in the middle east forum..lol..

 

[Hack-Hook]

It was caught off-guard, stood idle as other regional powers advanced their interests at its expense and had to cope with one of its northern neighbours, that has extensive relations with Israel, changing the contours of the area's borders.

By the way, there is a semi military coup happening right now in Armenia. Why? Because yesterday the Armenian PM criticized the performance of the Russian Iskandar missiles in the Karabkah war, claiming that they did not explode or when they did, only with 10% of their claimed capacity. And now the Russians have become mad because the capabilities of their weapons got ridiculed, and now the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Force is demanding the resignation of PM Pashinyan (likely under Russian pressure).

Time for Iran to put more effort in marketing its weaponry in Armenia.

Well I have iran official that asked them go to their internationally recognized border . i saw azeri officials thamks iran for its stand on the border.
I saw our national TV that clearly supported and was biased toward Azerbaijan and on other hand I see you claiming that iran supported Armenia . i wonder which i must believe .

 

[925boy]

It was caught off-guard, stood idle as other regional powers advanced their interests at its expense and had to cope with one of its northern neighbours, that has extensive relations with Israel, changing the contours of the area's borders.

By the way, there is a semi military coup happening right now in Armenia. Why? Because yesterday the Armenian PM criticized the performance of the Russian Iskandar missiles in the Karabkah war, claiming that they did not explode or when they did, only with 10% of their claimed capacity. And now the Russians have become mad because the capabilities of their weapons got ridiculed, and now the General Staff of the Armenian Armed Force is demanding the resignation of PM Pashinyan (likely under Russian pressure).

Time for Iran to put more effort in marketing its weaponry in Armenia.

Armenian govt and leadership still doesnt want to accept that Armenian soldiers and military performed badly in the Karabakh war of 2020. No lie or propaganda will refute that truth. Russian Iskander is a good system, i dont believe it didnt work as designed...Armenians just dont want to accept they failed themselves. i know these types of people because this is how NIgerians are in general too- they hate accountability.

 

[Arash1991]

What Iranians think about Pakisan? - YouTube