Iranian Chill Thread

[mangekyo]

Who thought Iran could win a war against the US in 1979?

• Taking US diplomats hostage,
• Burning US flags,
• Shouting death to America,
• Calling US and the west in general for Satan,
• Publicly saying that US cant to a damn thing,
• Demanding them to hand over the Shah,

from context and overall, it is clear that we underestimated US and overestimated ourselves.

But I don't think that the US embassy crisis is really our main issue with the US now. Since then, the US embassy has come under violent attacks in Iraq, South Korea and Greece in just recent months. Did the US severe ties with them immediately? No. Also, it's something that happened 41 years ago. The US has an issue with Iran's influence in the region as she sees herself committed to Israel and Saudi Arabia. And we will not give up our regional influence for the US to reestablish their ties with us.

No the hostage crisis is not the issue, the issue is that we have declared them as the big satan and our archenemy
Now is it possible to have neutral and even somewhat friendly relations with US while also keeping our regional influence? Yes, I think pretty much so. Except for the Israeli issue, US and Iran are natural allies, we have been doing their dirty work, and they have been doing ours for years.

As for Mahan flights to China, I completely disagree with you. Almost all countries that stopped their flights to China were hit with covid-19 as strongly as us, sometimes even much worse than us. United States, Italy, Spain, Britain, France, Brazil and Germany were hit by covid-19 just like us.

According to Rouhani, we have 25 million cases, but thats not even my point. My point is that we have isolated ourselves so much that we had no other choice.

I believe that Europe will become less and less relevant to the world order in the coming decades. Emerging powers like Brazil, Turkey, India will be able to take more independent decisions after 2030. China will become strong enough to unilaterally stand against the US. The US will continue to remain a super power for the next decade at least but it will become less powerful than it is today slowly.

I don't think so, China will still need the US and European market. Thats how China makes money right? If you think Africa will become the next emerging market think again, I believe the west would rather start ww3 and tip the scale in their favor.

anything new??

New in what way?

Do you genuinely believe that the west would`ve been simply just willing to "start over" with iran after its vassal despot had been overthrown and that irans new government was now going to pursue a policy of non alignment?
You seem to be forgetting that iran was the western appointed "policeman of the gulf", tasked with ensuring the continued flow of oil to the west and as a vital regional bulwark against any possible soviet expansionism in the persian gulf,so the idea that the west would just simply accept a now non aligned iran with its own independent foreign policy is quite literally absurd.Its very clear what would`ve happened,there would`ve been another western backed attempted coup almost certainly from disaffected elements from within the [us trained] pahlaviite military,in fact it would`ve probably been little different to the actual nojeh coup plot,except of course that this particular attempt had no us backing which was probably one of the reasons why it [luckily] failed.
Frankly tho at this point it seems rather foolish in the extreme to play games of "if only..." or "what if..." or "wouldnt it have been nice...",what should be of most concern now is the present reality,and the most painfully obvious part of that reality is that the attempted reengagement with the west that categorized the rouhani era has conclusively utterly failed,and the question naturally enough is what comes after this?,does iran put all of its hopes in a new post chumpist american regime ie strategic patience,or does iran perhaps consider whether it is still in its interests to continue to pursue its 40 year long policy of non-alignment in a unipolar world.

Have you noticed how similar @mangekyo is to Kastor?

Apparently all of these so-called liberals have no sense of patriotism whatsoever.

Omitting the name Persian was so natural for him that he didn't even understand your comment when you corrected him.

We are in the Iranian "Chill thread" So chill. Everyone here knows what Gulf means.

 

[GWXP]

The problem between US and Iran is not about "Death to America" slogans but about BALANCE OF POWER IN THE PERSIAN GULF.

Iran has bigger population/industrial base/military power than Iraq plus Persian Gulf states combined.

Iran is a power that seeks hegemony in the Persian Gulf, but US contains Iran---so US and Iran are NOT natural allies, but rather natural enemies. Iran wants to dominate the region, but US contains Iran.

Here is the old video that explains US's "Iranian problem"

Iran wants to dominate in Iraq/Syria/Lebanon and put pressure on Saudis and establish itself as a regional hegemon armed with nuclear weapons and setting the rules in the Persian Gulf

US wants Iran to withdraw troops from Syria/ cease support for Hezbollah and Houthis/ "respect Iraq's sovereigny"/ not threaten kingdoms of the Persian Gulf and never enrich uranium and don't produce ballistic missiles

How ceasing screaming "Death to America" and ceasing burning US flag will solve this differences and regional balance of power issue?

In order to improve relations with USA, Iran needs to give up its regional sphere of influence and nuclear and ballistic missile technology----hardly Iran will do this...


Regarding China---currently China has no power projection capabilities but in 2030 China will have a navy which will be equivalent to 50%-60% of US naval power

https://thediplomat.com/2019/02/predicting-the-chinese-navy-of-2030/

Regarding future of US and Europe----these nations suffer from demographic problems

In a normal demographic pyramid there are

1) few retirees,

2) large number of people in the age group 45-60 who are the best taxpayers and they tend to save a lot of money and keep them in banks,

3) even larger number of people ages 18-45, who borrow money from banks and consume, thus generating economic growth

and now in Europe and US demographic pyramid inverts--they will have:

1) large number of retirees

2) few taxpayers and money saver in the age group 45-60

3) even less consumers in the age group 18-45


This means that inversion of demographic pyramid will have these consequences for Europe and US:

1) GDP growth of 1% a year and stagnation

2) higher taxes to maintain retirees, which means lower income for younger generations

3) because of high taxes and shortage of labor--- factories will move to other countries----deindustrialization

4) growing government debt levels, which means higher borrowings by the government and this will increase credit interest rates higher and this will stall economic growth even further

All this symptoms are already visible in Japan--a country with bad demographic profile---Germany/Spain/Italy/Canada/US will follow

The point is that in near future Europe and US will be in decline with aging populations/stagnating economies/ growing public debt levels

Note that even before mass retirement of Baby Boomers-current US debt level stands at 133% of GDP,
https://www.thestreet.com/economonitor/news/inconvenient-truths-us-debt-explosion

This means that US ability to finance expensive wars will fade away.

 

[Shams313]

New in what way?

new unveiling, upcoming teaser...

 

[mangekyo]

The problem between US and Iran is not about "Death to America" slogans but about BALANCE OF POWER IN THE PERSIAN GULF.

You guys take things too literall. I have said many times, we declared US as our archenemy, that is where the problem is.

Iran is a power that seeks hegemony in the Persian Gulf, but US contains Iran---so US and Iran are NOT natural allies, but rather natural enemies. Iran wants to dominate the region, but US contains Iran.

Yes, Iran seeks hegemony in the region, and so does US. The reasons however, are very different, US wants hegemony in the region because of economic interests, we want it because this is our region and we are the historical power here. US needs a "police" in the region, Israel is not strong enough for that role, the only country that can serve as that police is Iran. I am not debating wether we should or not, I am simply debating that we are natural allies. Even as enemies, we benefit from each other, we are basically the boogeymen in the region that US uses to milk Arabs for oil and sell junk to them for protection money. If Iran and US were actually cooperating, we would shit on the whole region.

Iran wants to dominate in Iraq/Syria/Lebanon and put pressure on Saudis and establish itself as a regional hegemon armed with nuclear weapons and setting the rules in the Persian Gulf

US wants Iran to withdraw troops from Syria/ cease support for Hezbollah and Houthis/ "respect Iraq's sovereigny"/ not threaten kingdoms of the Persian Gulf and never enrich uranium and don't produce ballistic missiles

How ceasing screaming "Death to America" and ceasing burning US flag will solve this differences and regional balance of power issue?

Because we have declared them as our archenemy and the great satan, the issue is not chanting "death to America" it is declaring them as our archenemy and the great satan, what do you expect when you declare someone as your archenemy and the great satan, do you expect roses and candy?

 

[GWXP]

You guys take things too literall. I have said many times, we declared US as our archenemy, that is where the problem is.



Yes, Iran seeks hegemony in the region, and so does US. The reasons however, are very different, US wants hegemony in the region because of economic interests, we want it because this is our region and we are the historical power here. US needs a "police" in the region, Israel is not strong enough for that role, the only country that can serve as that police is Iran. I am not debating wether we should or not, I am simply debating that we are natural allies. Even as enemies, we benefit from each other, we are basically the boogeymen in the region that US uses to milk Arabs for oil and sell junk to them for protection money. If Iran and US were actually cooperating, we would shit on the whole region.



Because we have declared them as our archenemy and the great satan, the issue is not chanting "death to America" it is declaring them as our archenemy and the great satan, what do you expect when you declare someone as your archenemy and the great satan, do you expect roses and candy?

Even if you don't declare US as great Satan---US can't tolerate Iran's domination of the region that has 60% of global oil

Russia didn't declare US a great Satan---but still US does a lot to prevent Russia's domination of Ukraine and Eastern Europe

This is geopolitics

 

[mangekyo]

Even if you don't declare US as great Satan---US can't tolerate Iran's domination of the region that has 60% of global oil

I agree with that, not only US, no one can tolerate that, not Russia, not China. But my point is, if we cooperated with US, our interests would not collide. The main issue is that we declared them as enemies.

 

[mangekyo]

Russia didn't declare US a great Satan---but still US does a lot to prevent Russia's domination of Ukraine and Eastern Europe

It is inevitable, this region will either fall into our hands, or the whole region will be destroyed.

On a more serious note, Iran is not a nuclear power and does not pose the same threat as Russia, US is just buying time with Iran, I do think it is inevitable though, our influence will continue to grow in the region and theres not much US can do about it other than buying some time. However, I don't think it is entirely within Irans interests to have US fall, and I don't think it's within US interests to have Iran fall. Say we manage to kick out the Americans from ME. Russia and China is not going to tolerate that the region falls into Irans hands.

US acts as an offshore balancer containing regional powers

US knows they cant contain us, the region will be ours, wether we side with Russia and China or US and the West, this region will belong to us, no one else can control this region.

Who is going to stop us? Saudi Arabia? Qatar? UAE? Bahrain?

Again, on a more serious note, I don't know why some members think China is going to challenge the US. China built its economy by hosting factories for US and EU companies, a weaker US/EU means a weaker China.

 

[Sineva]

from context and overall, it is clear that we underestimated US and overestimated ourselves.

I think that you`re part right.
I do think that iran underestimated the extent to which the west was willing to go to inflict economic pain on itself in order to try and achieve an iranian surrender,or failing that at least hurt iran.
I also think that rouhani not only horrifically underestimated the complete and total untrustworthiness of the west,indeed I think that he deliberately chose to ignore it,but that he also made the exact same mistake of dreadfully overestimating the value of the deal to the west as well as the willingness of the other participants to stand up for both it and their own interests.Lastly I think he badly underestimated [or just stupidly ignored] the shear spiteful irrational nature of some of its less rational politicians,who as far as they were concerned considered win-win as no different to losing.

Well they do say that a picture is supposedly worth a thousand words,but I`m afraid that beyond the obvious its not really very clear here to me at least as to what you`re trying to say with it.

 

[mangekyo]

Well they do say that a picture is supposedly worth a thousand words,but I`m afraid that beyond the obvious its not really very clear here to me at least as to what you`re trying to say with it.

Just stating the obvious

 

[Mithridates]

i think this debate is wasting of our precious time. you can not change the history you can only move forward. and now i can just see a hostile US which does not satisfies with compromises on JCPOA level and wants more...

 

[QWECXZ]

• Taking US diplomats hostage,
• Burning US flags,
• Shouting death to America,
• Calling US and the west in general for Satan,
• Publicly saying that US cant to a damn thing,
• Demanding them to hand over the Shah,

from context and overall, it is clear that we underestimated US and overestimated ourselves.

Nobody burned the US flag or chanted death to America prior to the hostage crisis. We had diplomatic ties with the US prior to the hostage crisis and the US had an ambassador in Iran. As a matter of fact, the US ambassador was at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs while revolutionary students were entering the US embassy.
Demanding the US to hand over the Shah was a correct move. The US had a history of meddling in Iran. The US had helped the Shah to return to power after the 1953 coup. So, it made sense to ask them to hand over the Shah because Khomeini didn't want to have the same fate as Mosaddegh. The US used the Shah's cancer as an excuse to allow him to stay in New York which made the newly established regime in Iran worry about their true intentions.

No the hostage crisis is not the issue, the issue is that we have declared them as the big satan and our archenemy
Now is it possible to have neutral and even somewhat friendly relations with US while also keeping our regional influence? Yes, I think pretty much so. Except for the Israeli issue, US and Iran are natural allies, we have been doing their dirty work, and they have been doing ours for years.

They kind of earned that "Great Satan" name.
No, it's not possible to have neutral relations with the US anymore. Even basics of Game Theory prevent Iran and the US from becoming friends any time soon. The US thinks that it has the upper hand and Iran is in a weak position that encourages the US to apply more pressure until it collapses. The US will not negotiate for peace and friendship when it thinks it is so close to regime change in Iran. I said this before signing the JCPOA, and I was proven right. And I can tell you that any negotiations with the US will have a similar fate as the JCPOA.
And no, Iran and the US are not natural allies. The US believes that her natural allies are Arabs, particularly Saudi Arabia. Why? Because of the Petro-Dollar agreement and what they learned after the 1973 oil crisis.

According to Rouhani, we have 25 million cases, but thats not even my point. My point is that we have isolated ourselves so much that we had no other choice.

Rouhani didn't say it, another official said it and he said it was an estimation without citing how they came up with that estimation. Iran has 291,172 cases. Period. Your point is quite irrelevant. Nobody has a choice when it comes to relations with China. They are responsible for 15% of the international exports alone.

I don't think so, China will still need the US and European market. Thats how China makes money right? If you think Africa will become the next emerging market think again, I believe the west would rather start ww3 and tip the scale in their favor.

Irrelevant. The US and the Europeans needed Iran's market, but they ignored their trade with us when it suited them. The Europeans are not even that many or that prosperous to be important in future. The population of Europe is about 750 million people, and many of them live lives that are even worse compared to many Iranians. Europe is not that important a market as you think it is. Asia, Africa and Latin America can easily replace Europe as a market for the Chinese. Meanwhile, the Europeans need Chinese goods. If they don't import them from China, they will have to import them from somewhere else, the only difference is that it will probably end up more expensive for them.

We are in the Iranian "Chill thread" So chill. Everyone here knows what Gulf means.

Ridiculous. I enjoy your company as a fellow Iranian, particularly in other threads about other subjects. But that's a ridiculous reason. Even in Persian when we talk about the Persian Gulf, we always say "Khalije Fars". Nobody says "khalij". It only shows how unpatriotic you are.

 

[Shawnee]

درگیری های مرزی لبنان و اسراییل بعد حمله حزب الله به نقاط مرزی اسراییل با موشک ضد تانک

 

[mangekyo]

Nobody burned the US flag or chanted death to America prior to the hostage crisis. We had diplomatic ties with the US prior to the hostage crisis and the US had an ambassador in Iran. As a matter of fact, the US ambassador was at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs while revolutionary students were entering the US embassy.
Demanding the US to hand over the Shah was a correct move. The US had a history of meddling in Iran. The US had helped the Shah to return to power after the 1953 coup. So, it made sense to ask them to hand over the Shah. The US used the Shah's cancer as an excuse to allow him to stay in New York which made the newly established regime in Iran worry about their intentions.

Agreed, but by doing so, we declared them our enemies. It's not about who is right and who is wrong, the thing is we declared them our enemies, and so, we are enemies.

Nobody has a choice when it comes to relations with China. They are responsible for 15% of the international trades alone.

All other airliners in the world except for Mahan halted their flights to China.

Irrelevant. The US needed Iran's market, but it ignored us when it suited them. The Europeans are not even that many to be important in future. The population of Europe is about 750 million people, and many of them live lives that are even worse compared to Iranians. Europe is not that important a market as you think it is. Asia, Africa and Latin America can easily replace Europe as a market for the Chinese. Meanwhile, the Europeans need Chinese goods. If they don't import it from China, they will have to import them from somewhere else, the only difference is that it will probably end up more expensive for them.

It's not just market, the western world is leading in technology and innovation on almost every front. China cant afford to have the west move their production to another country.

And no, Iran and the US are not natural allies. The US believes that her natural allies are Arabs, particularly Saudi Arabia. Why? Because of the Petro Dollar agreement and what they learned after the 1973 oil crisis.

We are natural allies, the US knows it cant hold the region forever, it is inevitable that they will lose the region to us sooner or later, and they know it very well. That is the only region for their hostile policy towards us. They sanction us and hurt our economy to buy time. If not Iran, what other country in the region can keep a check on all Sunni Arab countries? If we stare too hard at the Saudis, they go buy 300 billion dollars of weapons from US... US cant control their proxies, same way, the coalition of Saudi, Qatar, UAE and Turkey couldn't control Daesh either. US needs to ally itself with a regional power in order to survive in ME, and that regional power can only be Iran.

Ridiculous. I enjoy your company as a fellow Iranian, particularly in other threads about other subjects. But that's a ridiculous reason. Even in Persian when we talk about the Persian Gulf, we always say "Khalije Fars". Nobody says "khalij". It only shows how unpatriotic you are.

Yes in Persian we say Khalije Fars, but in English, when you talk about the gulf with an American in US, it means the gulf of Mexico, when I am in the Iranian thread gulf means Persian Gulf, it's just semantics. But from now on I will use Persian Gulf here too. I am actually very patriotic, not long ago Norwegian media quoted an American article and referred to the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf, I wrote a formal complaint and had them change it to Persian Gulf.

i think this debate is wasting of our precious time. you can not change the history you can only move forward. and now i can just see a hostile US which does not satisfies with compromises on JCPOA level and wants more...

No it does not want more, Trump tore the deal because he is obsessed with Obama. He just wants to show the world that whatever Obama does, he can do better. But he is a big moron. He thought he could make Iran re negotiate, which is not an option for Iran ever. We can probably strike a MUCH better deal, and he will accept it and then somehow try to convince the world that he is a master negotiator.

@QWECXZ It was this article btw,

https://www.vg.no/nyheter/utenriks/...-amerikanske-krigsskip-farlig-og-provoserende

And if you click on the link in the article, you will be sent to the site they quoted where they use Arabian Gulf.

https://www.dvidshub.net/news/36748...interaction-with-us-naval-forces-arabian-gulf

 

[QWECXZ]

Agreed, but by doing so, we declared them our enemies. It's not about who is right and who is wrong, the thing is we declared them our enemies, and so, we are enemies.

It was the US that severed her ties with us over the embassy crisis. I don't say that they didn't have a good reason for that, but it was a hasty decision. I believe even the US learned her lesson after the embassy crisis as it ignored and downplayed all other attacks on her embassies in other countries after that.

All other airliners in the world except for Mahan halted their flights to China.

That's not true. I remember when people said this, we checked this online and there were some other airlines in China at that time as well. Plus, we didn't have that many flights to China at that time anyway. And there is absolutely no statistical correlation between halting flights to China and the number of covid-19 cases in a country. So, I don't understand why you are bringing this up over and over again.

It's not just market, the western world is leading in technology and innovation on almost every front. China cant afford to have the west move their production to another country.

The US is leading in technology and innovation. Europeans, excluding the UK, are good at baking waffles, croissants, baguettes and pizza. China is more advanced than Europe in terms of both science and technology now. Maybe only the UK, France and Germany can compete with China in Europe. The rest of them should compete with countries like Iran and Turkey. Comparing them to China is a joke.

We are natural allies, the US knows it cant hold the region forever, it is inevitable that they will lose the region to us sooner or later, and they know it very well. That is the only region for their hostile policy towards us. They sanction us and hurt our economy to buy time. If not Iran, what other country in the region can keep a check on all Sunni Arab countries? If we stare too hard at the Saudis, they go buy 300 billion dollars of weapons from US... US cant control their proxies, same way, the coalition of Saudi, Qatar, UAE and Turkey couldn't control Daesh either. US needs to ally itself with a regional power in order to survive in ME, and that regional power can only be Iran.

No, we are not. Saudi Arabia hosts the holy sites for Muslims. Unlike Iran which is of a different sect, Saudi Arabia is a Sunni country and 80% of Muslims are Sunnis. Saudi Arabia has more proven oil reserves than us. Saudi Arabia is keeping the value of dollar by honoring the Petro-Dollar agreement. Many of the 400 million Arabs look up to Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia sees that it is being betrayed by the US, it can cause an economic shock to the US by telling Arabs to sell oil in a currency other than the US Dollar. The US will never risk the stability of its economy to switch allies when it doesn't need to.

On the other hand, there's an emerging power in the region. I am talking about Turkey. The structure of power in the Middle East is no longer bipolar that the US has to choose between Saudi Arabia or Iran. Things are becoming more complicated honestly.

Yes in Persian we say Khalije Fars, but in English, when you talk about the gulf with an American in US, it means the gulf of Mexico, when I am in the Iranian thread gulf means Persian Gulf, it's just semantics. But from now on I will use Persian Gulf here too. I am actually very patriotic, not long ago Norwegian media quoted an American article and referred to the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf, I wrote a formal complaint and had them change it to Persian Gulf.

Iranians always use "Persian Gulf". Not any other term.

 

[mangekyo]

It was the US that severed her ties with us over the embassy crisis. I don't say that they didn't have a good reason for that, but it was a hasty decision. I believe even the US learned her lesson after the embassy crisis as it ignored all other attacks on her embassy in other countries after that.

Yes, but these other countries doesn't officially declare death to US, officially call them for the great satan etc.

The US is leading in technology and innovation. Europeans, excluding the UK, are good at baking waffles, croissants, baguettes and pizza. China is more advanced than Europe in terms of both science and technology now. Maybe only the UK, France and Germany can compete with China in Europe. The rest of them should compete with countries like Iran and Turkey. Comparing them to China is a joke.

Norway is actually world leading in sub sea drilling, ands generally ranks pretty high up in marine industry. I obviously didn't think of Poland and Latvia when I said Europe, Except for ABB (Swiss) and Kone (Finland) + some Swedish companies, UK, France and Germany is pretty much it. But I am not aware of any Chinese innovative companies.

No, we are not. Saudi Arabia hosts the holy sites for Muslims. Unlike Iran which is of a different sect, Saudi Arabia is a Sunni country and 80% of Muslims are Sunnis. Saudi Arabia has more proven oil reserves than us. Saudi Arabia is keeping the value of dollar by honoring the Petro-Dollar agreement. Many of the 400 million Arabs look up to Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia sees that it is being betrayed by the US, it can cause an economic shock to the US by telling Arabs to sell oil in a currency other than the US Dollar. The US will never risk the stability of its economy to switch allies when it doesn't need to.

Saudis are honestly too incompetent and Arab countries are too scared of us. I wouldn't worry about them at all.

On the other hand, there's an emerging power in the region. I am talking about Turkey. The structure of power in the Middle East is no longer bipolar that the US has to choose between Saudi Arabia or Iran. Things are becoming more complicated honestly.

I am not worried about Turkey, the Sunni world don't get along, they are too divided to pose a threat against Iran.