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Iranian Chill Thread

will we free them at ease ? Do you like to stay were they are for 3-4 years ? By the way aren't there american who they claims are in our custody and we even deny their existence ? About this deal is only about Rezaian I really doubt that I agree that pastor was just a bonus we throw there but what about the marine or the 4th people who actually was no talk about him in media until yesterday . about USA need only accusing some people for exchange with spies ,well its not like they actually did nothing ,6 of them have broken USA treasury laws and one was hacker who penetrated one of the top notch American laboratory computer system and downloaded millions of dollars software and data and if Iran wanted him then guess for whom he was working for. Do you suggest we most have forgotten them . wouldn't it gave the message to the Iranian who lived overboard that if when you are helping Iran while we are at a tight spot then as a thank you we will forget you ifyou face some problems.
As I already expressed my opinion, what Rohani wanted (not Iran) was freeing Rezaian, the rest of people in the list are just a cover.

Iranian prisoners released in swap: Who are they? - CNN.com
 
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I feel like you are all going to swim in the pools full of $$$ :D

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Pools full of $$$ ?? :lol: No . Not really . Oil price is falling below $25 a barrel .Iran was selling 1 million barrels per day . Now is permitted to sell more . The point is that :
1 million barrels * $80 = $80,000,000 per day
3 million barrels * $25 = $75,000,000 per day ( Sanctions lifted )

But soon or later Iran had to cut the country’s dependence on oil . Last year it was around 30% of budget . However Iran now has immediate access to more than $100-120 billion in available frozen assets (most of it in banks in China, Japan and South Korea ) less than half will more or less automatically go to preexisting debts . Also trade gonna be much easier after reconnecting to SWIFT banking .The main policy after the nuclear deal is to attract foreign investment
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/569c625c-bd04-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html#axzz3xbI3SoEW
But in the end , the end of Iran’s near-total economic isolation .
 
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Pools full of $$$ ?? :lol: No . Not really . Oil price is falling below $25 a barrel .Iran was selling 1 million barrels per day . Now is permitted to sell more . The point is that :
1 million barrels * $80 = $80,000,000 per day
3 million barrels * $25 = $75,000,000 per day ( Sanctions lifted )

But soon or later Iran had to cut the country’s dependence on oil . Last year it was around 30% of budget . However Iran now has immediate access to more than $100-120 billion in available frozen assets (most of it in banks in China, Japan and South Korea ) less than half will more or less automatically go to preexisting debts . Also trade gonna be much easier after reconnecting to SWIFT banking .The main policy after the nuclear deal is to attract foreign investment
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/569c625c-bd04-11e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html#axzz3xbI3SoEW
But in the end , the end of Iran’s near-total economic isolation .
I dunno, Saudis have oil, you have more oil + natural gas. Logic says you gonna be at least Saudi rich. :)
 
واقعیات اجتماعی مهم تر از برجام/ چرا این بار کسی از خوشحالی خبر لغو تحریم ها به خیابان نیامد؟
برجام تابستان ۹۴ منعقد نشد، خرداد ۹۲ به ثمر نشست، همان زمانی که آدرس غلط ارتباط دادن چرخ زندگی مردم با چرخ سانتریفیوژها توسط مردم باور شد و حالا دقیقا این گزاره اشتباه به سرعت در شیب ابطال افتاده است چرا که مردم به جای آرزوها، واقعیات را مشاهده می کنند که امریکا چطور در همان روز اجرای برجام تحریم های جدید علیه ایران را اعمال می کند!
امیرحسین ثابتی در کانال تلگرام خود نوشت:

۱. شاید برای نوشتن درباره روز اجرای برجام کمی دیر باشد اما واقعیت این است که در این روز اساسا اتفاق جدیدی بوقوع نپیوست که نیاز به نوشتن و یا تحلیل داشته باشد، زیرا همانطور که از قبل نیز بارها منتقدان برجام اعلام کرده بودند، به معنای واقعی کلمه زیرساخت تحریم ها سر جای خود باقی مانده است و در مقابل آن چیزی که از بین رفته، زیرساخت تاسیسات هسته ای ایران است.

۲. اما واقعیت مهم تری از روز اجرای برجام وجود دارد و آن این است علیرغم اینکه طی دو سال گذشته و بعد از اعلام خبر توافق ژنو در آذر ۹۲، لوزان در فروردین ۹۴ و وین در تیر ۹۴ بخشهایی از حامیان دولت و طبقات مرفه در نقاط شمالی تهران به بهانه توافق هسته ای و لغو تحریم ها به خیابان آمده و ابراز شادمانی کردند، این بار پس از آنکه حتی بارها اعلام شده بود قرار است در روز اجرای برجام رسما تمام تحریم ها برداشته شود، هیچ واکنش اجتماعی مثبتی در این باره از سوی همان طیف خاص نیز صورت نگرفت و از همین گزاره می توان به خوبی فهمید امروز ادعای لغو همه تحریم ها در دل توده های مردم چقدر باور شده است.


۳. تاکید می کنم که از ابتدا نیز واکنش های متوهمانه اقلیت مرفه ساکن شمال تهران نمادی از خوشحالی توده های مردم نسبت به توافق هسته ای نبود اما نکته مهم اینجاست که این بار حتی این بخش از جامعه نیز نتوانستند روز اجرای برجام را بهانه ای برای یک واکنش اجتماعی مثبت نسبت به توافق هسته ای قلمداد کنند چرا که طی دو سال و نیم اخیر، گذر زمان و افزایش تجربه و ظرفیت فکری مردم، یک آدرس غلط را بیش از همیشه ابطال کرد و آن جمله معروف حسن روحانی بود: «چرخ زندگی مردم زمانی بهتر می چرخد که چرخ سانتریفیوژها کمتر بچرخد.»

۴. همه واقعیت برجام و پسا برجام در همین رویداد مهم اجتماعی نهفته است. چرا که اساس شکل گیری برجام هم در همین مساله ریشه داشت. برجام تابستان ۹۴ منعقد نشد، خرداد ۹۲ به ثمر نشست، همان زمانی که آدرس غلط ارتباط دادن چرخ زندگی مردم با چرخ سانتریفیوژها توسط مردم باور شد و حالا دقیقا این گزاره اشتباه به سرعت در شیب ابطال افتاده است چرا که مردم به جای آرزوها، واقعیات را مشاهده می کنند که امریکا چطور در همان روز اجرای برجام تحریم های جدید علیه ایران را اعمال می کند!

۵. واقعیات برجام امروز به خوبی به مردم نشان داده که در ازای از بین بردن ده تن اورانیوم غنی شده، بتن ریختن در راکتور اراک، از بین بردن چند هزار سانتریفیوژ، صدور مجوز بازرسی های بی سابقه برای آژانس و ... قیمت دلار حتی ۲۰۰ تومان هم ریزش ندارد و سقوط بورس ادامه دار است و دقیقا درس گرفتن از همین واقعیات اجتماعی تلخ و تحقیر کننده است که می تواند باعث جهش تاریخی یک ملت شود. اساسا اگر باور داشته باشیم که رشد اجتماعی و سیاسی مردم برای پیشبرد اهداف و آرمان های انقلاب چقدر مهم است، قطعا اذعان می کنیم که این مساله آنقدر ارزش دارد که حتی بیش از این نیز برای آن هزینه شود چرا که والاترین اهداف انسانی و آرمانی با وجود بهترین رهبر تاریخ نیز بدون آمادگی و رشد امت امکان تحقق ندارد!


لذا امروز دیگر هر چقدر این بخش از سخنان حکیمانه رهبر انقلاب در ۱۲ آبان ۹۲ را مرور کنیم، کم است:

«اين تجربه (مذاکره با آمریکا در موضوع هسته ای) ظرفيّت فكرى ملّت ما را بالا خواهد برد؛ مثل تجربه‌اى كه در سال ۸۲ و ۸۳ در زمينه‌ى تعليق غنى‌سازى انجام گرفت، كه آن‌وقت تعليق غنى‌سازى را در مذاكرات با همين اروپايى‌ها، جمهورى اسلامى براى يك مدّتى پذيرفت. خب ما دو سال عقب افتاديم، لكن به نفع ما تمام شد. چرا؟ چون فهميديم كه با تعليق غنى‌سازى، اميد همكارى از طرف شركاى غربى مطلقاً وجود ندارد.

اگر ما آن تعليق اختيارى را - كه البتّه به‌نحوى تحميل شده بود، لكن ما قبول كرديم، مسئولين ما قبول كردند - آن روز قبول نكرده بوديم، ممكن بود كسانى بگويند خب يك ذرّه شما عقب‌نشينى ميكرديد، همه‌ى مشكلات حل ميشد، پرونده‌ى هسته‌اى ايران عادى ميشد. آن تعليق غنى‌سازى اين فايده را براى ما داشت كه معلوم شد با عقب‌نشينى، با تعليق غنى‌سازى، با عقب افتادن كار، با تعطيل كردن بسيارى از كارها مشكل حل نميشود؛ طرف مقابل دنبال مطلب ديگرى است ... البتّه بنده همچنان كه گفتم خوشبين نيستم؛ من فكر نميكنم [از] اين مذاكرات آن نتيجه‌اى را كه ملّت ايران انتظار دارد، به‌دست بيايد، لكن تجربه‌اى است و پشتوانه‌ى تجربى ملّت ايران را افزايش خواهد داد و تقويت خواهد كرد؛ ايرادى ندارد امّا لازم است ملّت بيدار باشد.»

مطلب مرتبط:

جشن تعطیلی صنعت هسته ای؛ به نام مردم به کام پورشه سواران نیاوران/ وقتی مستضعفان بنز سوار از فشار تحریم ها به خیابان ریختند!
 
Guys, give some news about the lifted sanctions...

What's the estimated GDP/Growth in Iran for 2016 ??? I expect Iran to be the richest country in ME in 10 years...

Saudia Arabia- Population: 30 Million, GDP: 650$ Billion
Iran - Population: Population: 80 Million, GDP: 1700$ Billion.

I feel like you are all going to swim in the pools full of $$$ :D
If this happens then the construction sector is gonna boom in Iran and guess which neighbor with the second biggest construction sector in the world is gonna make profit.

Win-Win. :)
 
If this happens then the construction sector is gonna boom in Iran and guess which neighbor with the second biggest construction sector in the world is gonna make profit.

Win-Win. :)
Economists here saying Construction, Machinery and Textile exports will raise quickly.
 
افزایش بیش از دو برابری بودجه پژوهش در سال 95
معاون توسعه مدیریت و منابع معاونت علمی و فناوری ریاست جمهوری از افزایش بیش از دو برابر بودجه پژوهش و فناوری کشور در سال 95 خبر داد.
1434843_203.jpg
به گزارش مشرق، علیرضا دلیری درباره این افزایش بودجه اظهار کرد: به دلیل وجود مشکلات درآمدی در کشور، بودجه سال 95 رشد چشمگیری نداشته؛ ولی با توجه به تاکیدات مقام معظم رهبری و رییس جمهوری بودجه پژوهشی کشور در سال آینده بیش از دو برابر افزایش یافت.

وی همچنین گفت: در همین راستا سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی بودجه علی‌رغم شرایط بد بودجه‌ای، مبلغ بودجه پژوهشی سال آینده را از 57 هزار میلیارد ریال در سال 94 به 120 هزار میلیارد ریال افزایش داد.

دلیری با اشاره به اینکه افزایش بیش از دو برابری بودجه پژوهشی کشور در سال آینده بسیار چشمگیر بوده است، گفت: با این افزایش سهم بودجه پژوهشی کشور از 48 صدم درصد به بالای یک درصد افزایش داشته که این موضوع برای نخستین بار اتفاق افتاده و نشانگر این است که تاکید دولت تدبیر و امید بر توسعه پژوهش و فناوری بوده است.

معاون توسعه مدیریت و منابع معاونت علمی و فناوری ریاست جمهوری تصریح کرد: در سال‌های قبل بودجه پژوهش و فناوری کشور به دلیل نبود خروجی کاربردی از این طرح‌ها افزایش نمی‌یافت و انگیزه‌ای برای افزایش بودجه پژوهشی کشور وجود نداشت.

وی با اشاره به اینکه ما باید در سال آینده هماهنگی‌های لازم را برای تدوین یک برنامه مدون با سازمان مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی داشته باشیم، اظهار کرد: طرح‌ها و پژوهش‌های فناوری باید به سمت کاربردی شدن پیش بروند و منجر به تولید محصول شوند تا در زندگی روزمره مردم و جامعه ملموس باشد.

دلیری تأکید کرد: اولویت دولتمردان ما در سال‌های آینده باید تولیدات دانش‌بنیان باشد و با تخصیص بودجه بیشتر به پژوهش و فناوری و محصولات دانش‌بنیان باید جایگزین نفت خام که در اصل آفت جامعه ما به شمار می‌رود، شود.

Guys, give some news about the lifted sanctions...

What's the estimated GDP/Growth in Iran for 2016 ??? I expect Iran to be the richest country in ME in 10 years...

Saudia Arabia- Population: 30 Million, GDP: 650$ Billion
Iran - Population: Population: 80 Million, GDP: 1700$ Billion.

I feel like you are all going to swim in the pools full of $$$ :D
Western sources predict an at least %6 growth for 2016 while Iranian government sees it as at least %5..

The most exiciting news about these economic booming news was the headline about next year public budget. There were Three dramatic surprises...

1- Those parts of Iranian economy which were tax-exempt are going to be put into account from 2016 or 17..
2- IRCG budget will be lowered a lot where defence budgets of Basij, Police and Army will be rised significantly.. (the reason behind IRGC budget cut down is its relative independence in monetary sources... IRGC has a big business pool where they have their biggest engineering contractor (khatam al Anbya) with nearly a hundred thousands of top engineers in hire and also lots of industrial and weaponry factories who have their own incomes while other forces lack this important feature... The motive behind this independence are two things, first their strategic weaponry projects which must not be dragged into government budget flactuations due to their strategic nature and also the exceptional engineering capability of soe of IRCG engineering groups which gives the task of helping governments in their infra and engineering projects)
3- Doubling the public budget for R&D in high tech sector by government... (don't mix this budget with private sector high tech and R&D sector which is the most active today)
 
Western sources predict an at least %6 growth for 2016 while Iranian government sees it as at least %5..

The most exiciting news about these economic booming news was the headline about next year public budget. There were Three dramatic surprises...

1- Those parts of Iranian economy which were tax-exempt are going to be put into account from 2016 or 17..
2- IRCG budget will be lowered a lot where defence budgets of Basij, Police and Army will be rised significantly.. (the reason behind IRGC budget cut down is its relative independence in monetary sources... IRGC has a big business pool where they have their biggest engineering contractor (khatam al Anbya) with nearly a hundred thousands of top engineers in hire and also lots of industrial and weaponry factories who have their own incomes while other forces lack this important feature... The motive behind this independence are two things, first their strategic weaponry projects which must not be dragged into government budget flactuations due to their strategic nature and also the exceptional engineering capability of soe of IRCG engineering groups which gives the task of helping governments in their infra and engineering projects)
3- Doubling the public budget for R&D in high tech sector by government... (don't mix this budget with private sector high tech and R&D sector which is the most active today)

I think Oil and Gas export will continue to (even with more %) form the back bone of Iranian economy.
767px-Iran_Export_Treemap.jpg


Time will tell.....but your gonna be filthy rich, IMO. :)
 
Economists here saying Construction, Machinery and Textile exports will raise quickly.
Turkish firms never been that active in Iranian market but they still will be able to hold bids for new projects in Iran but I think this will be limited as Iran herself has a very wolfish-hungry construction sector which was waiting hard for the sanctions to be lifted and more projects to come... I think in short term there will be no considerable profit for Turkish firms but as Rouhani cabinet is all about opening up to the world, your construction sector bidders will have bigger chances in mid-term... btw, Chinese construction, rail, energy and Russian rail, energy and machinery, French-German machinery and airbuses will be the main winners in short and mid-terms... The first two foreign investors are eager to finance the projects by themselves this is why Iran logically will pave the way for them before any one else.. and historically Iranian machinery infra is bounded tight to the German providers.. This is why they will be the first to be contacted in this field...

Turkish Textiles will have a gain but this is not going to be like before... In absence of major textile brands in Iran in last 5 years, Chinese, Indian and some other nations created a foot print in this sector of Iranian economy...

Turkish Machinery won't have a chance... Only cheap Chinese and durable German and at-the-middle Iranians brands will be the winners in Iranian machinery market...

Tourism will witness another hit again.. This time from Iran... Turkey got hit hard once when Iranian Rial lost 2/3 of its value couple of years back.. no again there will be a hit in two paces... The first hit will be when Iranians don't feel anymore safe in Turkey for vacations which already started btw... The second hit will be when Turkey signs Schengen treaty where they will lose a biiiig share of their tourists from non-schengen countries unless they modify the system to allow the current easy-visa system... Another bad news is that Russian tourism companies and their gov is working hard to direct a big part of their Russian Tourists to Iran and other destinations and more importantly remove the Visa for Iranians so Iranians spend their vacations in Russia... I would tell blindly that most of those kind of pleasure tourists of Iran will definitely choose Russians to Turks..... Turkey through their current Ikhvanite foreign policy will lose a lot more in coming years... Turkey started to lose Tourists and gain only Terrorists!
 
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Turkish firms never been that active in Iranian market but they still will be able to hold bids for new projects in Iran but I think this will be limited as Iran herself has a very wolfish-hungry construction sector which was waiting hard for the sanctions to be lifted and more projects to come... I think in short term there will be no considerable profit for Turkish firms but as Rouhani cabinet is all about opening up to the world, your construction sector bidders will have bigger chances in mid-term... btw, Chinese construction, rail, energy and Russian rail, energy and machinery, French-German machinery and airbuses will be the main winners in short and mid-terms... The first two foreign investors are eager to finance the projects by themselves this is why Iran logically will pave the way for them before any one else.. and historically Iranian machinery infra is bounded tight to the German providers.. This is why they will be the first to be contacted in this field...

Turkish Textiles will have a gain but this is not going to be like before... In absence of major textile brands in Iran in last 5 years, Chinese, Indian and some other nations created a foot print in this sector of Iranian economy...

Turkish Machinery won't have a chance... Only cheap Chinese and durable German and at-the-middle Iranians brands will be the winners in Iranian machinery market...

Tourism will witness another hit again.. This time from Iran... Turkey got hit hard once when Iranian Rial lost 2/3 of its value couple of years back.. no again there will be a hit in two paces... The first hit will be when Iranians don't feel anymore safe in Turkey for vacations which already started btw... The second hit will be when Turkey signs Schengen treaty where they will lose a biiiig share of their tourists from non-schengen countries unless they modify the system to allow the current easy-visa system... Another bad news is that Russian tourism companies and their gov is working hard to direct a big part of their Russian Tourists to Iran and other destinations and more importantly remove the Visa for Iranians so Iranians spend their vacations in Russia... I would tell blindly that most of those kind of pleasure tourists of Iran will definitely choose Russians to Turks..... Turkey through their current Ikhvanite foreign policy will lose a lot more in coming years... Turkey started to lose Tourists and attract more Terrorists!

I'm not agreeing with you on a single sentence. :lol: And not in mood for lengthy discussions.

Time will show. :)
 
Turkish firms never been that active in Iranian market but they still will be able to hold bids for new projects in Iran but I think this will be limited as Iran herself has a very wolfish-hungry construction sector which was waiting hard for the sanctions to be lifted and more projects to come... I think in short term there will be no considerable profit for Turkish firms but as Rouhani cabinet is all about opening up to the world, your construction sector bidders will have bigger chances in mid-term... btw, Chinese construction, rail, energy and Russian rail, energy and machinery, French-German machinery and airbuses will be the main winners in short and mid-terms... The first two foreign investors are eager to finance the projects by themselves this is why Iran logically will pave the way for them before any one else.. and historically Iranian machinery infra is bounded tight to the German providers.. This is why they will be the first to be contacted in this field...

Turkish Textiles will have a gain but this is not going to be like before... In absence of major textile brands in Iran in last 5 years, Chinese, Indian and some other nations created a foot print in this sector of Iranian economy...

Turkish Machinery won't have a chance... Only cheap Chinese and durable German and at-the-middle Iranians brands will be the winners in Iranian machinery market...

Tourism will witness another hit again.. This time from Iran... Turkey got hit hard once when Iranian Rial lost 2/3 of its value couple of years back.. no again there will be a hit in two paces... The first hit will be when Iranians don't feel anymore safe in Turkey for vacations which already started btw... The second hit will be when Turkey signs Schengen treaty where they will lose a biiiig share of their tourists from non-schengen countries unless they modify the system to allow the current easy-visa system... Another bad news is that Russian tourism companies and their gov is working hard to direct a big part of their Russian Tourists to Iran and other destinations and more importantly remove the Visa for Iranians so Iranians spend their vacations in Russia... I would tell blindly that most of those kind of pleasure tourists of Iran will definitely choose Russians to Turks..... Turkey through their current Ikhvanite foreign policy will lose a lot more in coming years... Turkey started to lose Tourists and attract more Terrorists!

PressTV-Iran to partner Turkey in $10 billion plan
Turkish firm to build subway in Tabriz, Iran - Daily Sabah

Turkish firm are getting contracts within Iran in the billions. The companies that received the contract also build roads between Konya and Karaman, my home city in Turkey. They are pretty good and smooth as fvck.
 
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۲. ، هیچ واکنش اجتماعی مثبتی در این باره از سوی همان طیف خاص نیز صورت نگرفت و از همین گزاره می توان به خوبی فهمید امروز ادعای لغو همه تحریم ها در دل توده های مردم چقدر باور شده است.

یعنی این ابله ها فکر میکنن اون افراد به خاطر اینکه فکر میکنن ساختار تحریم ها به جاست نیومدن بیرون؟ و نه به خاطر اینکه خیلی از مردم میدونن پایه های
اقتصادی این حکومت از ریشه فاسد هست؟

الان کسی به پولدار شدن با رفع تحریم ها فکر نمیکنه البته غیر از عده ای قلیل که همیشه بودن، بلکه امید دارن یکم شرایط اقتصادی کشور از این لجنزاری که هست خارج بشه.
 
I think Oil and Gas export will continue to (even with more %) form the back bone of Iranian economy.
767px-Iran_Export_Treemap.jpg


Time will tell.....but your gonna be filthy rich, IMO. :)

This table of Iranian exports is as old as $100 oil price. In last year of 1393 (2014), The oil share in government budget was around %37 and oil share in exports was nearly %60...

In current Iranian year of 1394 (still have 2 months left to the end), the government budget has even less oil in it. The total oil exports will never exceed $24 billions while non-oil exports remains in its high levels with %12 growth... The budget share of oil income reduced to %31.7 this year... This means the share of oil in 2015's exports are even lower than last years'... Probably around %35 to %45 of Iranian exports will come from crude oil exports...

The recent industrialization process of Iranian economy is just showing an early blossom... In coming years Iranian oil and non-oil exports will rise exponentially...

Recent oil price crisis plus severe sanctions on oil exports was a big favor for Iran..
و مكروا و مکر الله والله خير الماكرين
Today the situation of Iranian industry sector is very bad but since it is not a created-by-night, fly-by-night capability to have an industry infra like that of Iran, by sanctions getting lifted and more oil, non-oil, tax incomes getting poured into Iranian economy we will definitely see a big boom in Iranian incomes and wealth...

I predict a constant rise of crude oil and natural gas exports in coming years... and I also predict an even faster growth of non-oil exports including a higher share of services and high tech products in coming years...

With the oil price lowered to current minus $30 level and its likely fall to even around $20/b many OPEC and non-opec members will be hurt hard... Among them are oil producers with high production prices but the main kick will be on the corps of economies with very high or even TOTAL dependency on oil exports as their sole income... Most Arab nations will see unprecedented economic hardship among them Saudi Arabia... but for economies like Iran and Russia, this effect will be minimal and will even play a favor kick... forcing them to forget about oil incomes and focus on their tech and industries...

PressTV-Iran to partner Turkey in $10 billion plan
Turkish firm to build subway in Tabriz, Iran - Daily Sabah

Turkish firm are getting contracts within Iran in the billions. The companies that received the contract also build roads between Konya and Karaman, my home city in Turkey. They are pretty good and smooth as fvck.
There are lots of such empty talks and agreements yet I will be glad to see Turkey considers more economic relations with Iran... It will help lots of Iranian and Turk citizens to make more money
 

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