Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles
The broad scope of the INF Treaty also covered medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). Thus, the treaty resulted in the elimination of this class of missiles (with ranges between 1000 and 3000 km) from Soviet/Russian and U.S. ballistic missile arsenals. Changes in the French nuclear forces also resulted in the elimination of MRBMs from its arsenal as well.
Decreases
A total of 149 Russian SS-4 and 234 U.S. Pershing II missiles were destroyed under the INF treaty.22 France possessed 64 medium-range M20 SLBMs in 1987 that it had replaced with longer-range systems by 1991. 23
Increases Geographically
The most significant proliferation threat comes from the slow but steady increase in the number of states possessing medium-range ballistic missiles, even as Russia, France and the United States eliminated their arsenals. This development has attracted a great amount of attention and is often cited as evidence of a larger proliferation threat. China, India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia now possess land-based MRBMs. China also possesses a medium-range SLBM capability, though its operational status is in question.24 Only India, Iran, Pakistan, and North Korea have developed or obtained their missiles since 1989, and Iran and Pakistan base their missiles primarily on assistance or technology received from North Korea.
Status Quo
China has maintained its force of 40 DF-3 MRBMs, 48 DF-21 MRBMs and 12 CSS N-3 sea-launched MRBMs. 25
Net Decrease Numerically
Numerically speaking, even though MRBMs are now in the hands of more countries than in 1987, the total number of MRBMs in existence in 2002 is smaller than the 547 MRBMs in the combined U.S., French, Russian, and Chinese forces in 1987.26 Since then, Israel is believed to have deployed 50 operational Jericho II MRBMs 27 while Saudi Arabia has 40 CSS-2 MRBMs that it purchased from China.28 North Korea is believed to have deployed 10 No Dong MRBMs 29 but has possibly produced up to 100 missiles of this type.30 MRBMs in India, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea's Taepodong are still in operational testing. Assuming each of these countries could deploy one to five missiles in a crisis during the next five years, the global total of MRBMs today is no more than 310 and likely as low as 200. This represents a 43 and 63 per cent decrease, respectively, in global MRBM arsenals from the 1987 level.
In terms of missiles potentially threatening the United States, the threat has gone from 249 Chinese and Soviet missiles in 1987 to 100 Chinese, as many as 100 North Korean No Dongs, possibly one or two Taepodong missiles and a few Iranian Shahab-3 missiles.31 This tabulates to a total of about 205 missiles that could threaten U.S. forces or Europe, representing an 18 percent decrease in threat systems.
