Iran science output in future

[curioususer]

I have been on this forum for several years now, whenever an Indian doesn't like what I'm saying, they try to claim that I am a Pakistani.

Do you know how many times the moderators have been asked to do an IP check on the Chinese members here? And every single time, they find that this claim is pure BS. You can ask for another IP check and see again.

It is just the Indian loser-mentality. They can't argue based on facts, so instead they make these stupid accusations instead.

maybe you use a chinese proxy to appear as if you are from china.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

maybe you use a chinese proxy to appear as if you are from china.

There is no way anyone could pull that off for more than two years in a row, they will always slip up.

Ask the moderators, my IP address has always been the same, my MAC address too. One for my computer, one for my smartphone.

Indians apparently don't have the confidence to argue against anyone, without bringing up their irrational obsession with Pakistanis.

 

[Roybot]

This is nonsense. Just because Iran's output grew by 574.5% between (2003-2010) doesn't mean that it will grow by 574.5% again between(2011-2018).

If only things were that simple. This is just juvenile.

 

[Archdemon]

Now that was a relative comparison. You are drawing extrapolations based on your irrational whims and assumptions. Now, can you state an example of one country here who has progressed as much in the field of science, defence, technology etc. under sanctions as Iran did?

Venezuela, NK, Cuba, Zimbabewe, Iraq, Myanmar, South Africa.....? Many of them don't even appear on the list.

Relative comparison? isn't comparison is always relative? relative to what? what is your point? im just saying that the sole logical conclusion from your statement is that Iranian are superior.

Im drawing extrapolations? heh the irony, actually you are the one who is doing that, in order for your statement to be valid all nation should have gone through the same path as Iran did, and you are giving me short list of failed sates, yes relative to them Iran doing great, isn't it a moral boost to compare yourself with an invalid? make one very proud...

Now to the sanctions, remind me what sanction Iran is under? excluding 2011/12 Iran had all the freedom to buy almost all available technological gear, Iran sent her student abroad to gain the best education, to buy know how etc and if there is a thing or two that Iran couldn't buy directly they bough indirectly, it is not that difficult at all when state dealing with that, the only sanction Iran was under since 1979 was on American arms.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

This is nonsense. Just because Iran's output grew by 574.5% between (2003-2010) doesn't mean that it will grow by 574.5% again between(2011-2018).

If only things were that simple. This is just juvenile.

More jealously.

Newsflash: Future projections are always based in part on past performance. They usually use an average over a set time frame, such as the past 5-10 year period.

 

[Arian]

Relative comparison? isn't comparison is always relative? relative to what? what is your point? im just saying that the sole logical conclusion from your statement is that Iranian are superior.

Im drawing extrapolations? heh the irony, actually you are the one who is doing that, in order for your statement to be valid all nation should have gone through the same path as Iran did, and you are giving me short list of failed sates, yes relative to them Iran doing great, isn't it a moral boost to compare yourself with an invalid? make one very proud...

Now to the sanctions, remind me what sanction Iran is under? excluding 2011/12 Iran had all the freedom to buy almost all available technological gear, Iran sent her student abroad to gain the best education, to buy know how etc and if there is thing or two that Iran couldn't buy directly they bough indirectly, it is not that difficult at all when state dealing with that, the only sanction Iran was under since 1979 was on American arms.

Now you're obviously trolling. Typical Israeli way of trolling I can say. You ignored my answer because it left you completely speechless and now you have written a long letter to him which more than half of is pure nonsense and jokes.

 

[Roybot]

More jealously.

Newsflash: Future projections are always based in part on past performance.

Yeah if the trend is to continue Iran will overtake China too. I have no jealousy with Iran, I wish them good luck, but this prediction is just useless.

In 2018 Iran will produce 185,084, then (2018-2026) growth of another 574.5%, they should produce over one million(1063307) citable documents in 2026. I mean do we know when this growth rate of 574.5% is going to stop? Its idiotic.

There is no way Iran will produce more papers than Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, India, not by 2018 anyways.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Yeah if the trend is to continue Iran will overtake China too.

And what is the problem with that? We are second place now, and no one can stay number one forever.

There is no way Iran will produce more papers than Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, India, not by 2018 anyways.

And there is the crux of the matter.

 

[Roybot]

And what is the problem with that? We are second place now, and no one can stay number one forever.
And there is the crux of the matter.

Ok you are in trolling mood today, am not , so let it be. Anyone with a tiny bit of brain will know that this "analysis" is not worth much.

 

[Arian]

Yeah if the trend is to continue Iran will overtake China too. I have no jealousy with Iran, I wish them good luck, but this prediction is just useless.

In 2018 Iran will produce 185,084, then (2018-2026) growth of another 574.5%, they should produce over one million(1063307) citable documents in 2026. I mean do we know when this growth rate of 574.5% is going to stop? Its idiotic.

There is no way Iran will produce more papers than Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, India, not by 2018 anyways.

I guess I already discussed this with another Indian member.

See my friend, surely predictions aren't reality, but if all hypotheses and assumptions are close to reality, then they will contain part of what we'll observe in future. Many things could change. For example if Iran goes into a war with the USA next month, everything will change and Iran may even witness a severe drop in its number of published articles. But if everything stays close to what they've considered, then with a reasonable error, their prediction would happen.
It's very simple, you don't need to be a genius to understand. So your critic is out of the place.

About what you said, they are extrapolating Iran's performance and predict the next 6 years, you're predicting the next 14 years. As the interval of time increases, your prediction gets less and less likely to happen and the error of your prediction increases. It's again very simple to understand it.

If you want to criticize something, use some critical thinking before you post something which is against all laws of statistics. According to you statistics and probabilities is a stupid and useless branch of mathematics because predictions obtained by them will not always come fully true.

Ok you are in trolling mood today, am not , so let it be. Anyone with a tiny bit of brain will know that this "analysis" is not worth much.

Not really. I have a tiny bit of brain and I think this analysis worth as much as other predictions

 

[500]

One point about this part. Do you know why Israelis hate Russia? Even though that many of Israelis are in fact Jews that lived in Soviet Russia and have Slavic blood too? It's because Russia doesn't dance with their tune like the USA does. That's why they like to underestimate Russia even though everyone knows Russia has been the birth place or host of many of the finest scientists in history.

No its u who hate Russia. Because according to table that shortbrain posted Romania is on 20th place while Russia on 22th place:

http://i48.tinypic.com/f022di.jpg

Thats why I said that this rate is nothing but pure BS and there is no point to discuss it.

 

[Arian]

No its u who hate Russia. Because according to table that shortbrain posted Romania is on 20th place while Russia on 22th place:

http://i48.tinypic.com/f022di.jpg

Thats why I said that this rate is nothing but pure BS and there is no point to discuss it.

Nope. I don't hate Russia either, but generally I've seen many Israelis bad mouthing Russia.
Where did he post that link?
Moreover, If Taiwan could be ranked over Russia (it's currently one rank above Russia), why Romania can't be above Russia in future?

 

[Archdemon]

Now you're obviously trolling. Typical Israeli way of trolling I can say. You ignored my answer because it left you completely speechless and now you have written a long letter to him which more than half of is pure nonsense and jokes.

Now, you are calling my post nonsense and expecting from me to reply your big post? not very nice.
Maybe somebody else will find strength to comment your nonsense

 

[Roybot]

I guess I already discussed this with another Indian member.

See my friend, surely predictions aren't reality, but if all hypotheses and assumptions are close to reality, then they will contain part of what we'll observe in future.

About what you said, they are extrapolating Iran's performance and predict the next 6 years, you're predicting the next 14 years. As the interval of time increases, your prediction gets less and less likely to happen and the error of your prediction increases. It's again very simple to understand it.

Not really. I have a tiny bit of brain and I think this analysis worth as much as other predictions

Look I have no problem with predictions but this hardly qualifies as a prediction.

All they have done is that ok Iran's output grew by 574.5% between 2003-2010(over 8 years), so it will also grow by 574.5% between 2011-2018(over 8 years). When in reality Iran's growth rate has already started to taper off.

SJR - Country Search

Its intellectual dishonesty at best.

 

[Ir.Tab.]

You do understand that this was based only on the number of journals published by Elsevier. The other journal publishers like ACM, IEEE, Springer etc. are conspicuously absent. And there is no notion of Conference publications (at least A+-Tier ones) done in this study. As i mentioned previously too, Iran lags way behind (but better than Pakistan) in patents. So there are a lot of unknowns to make a prediction in 2018. What can be said is the commendable way in which Iran's S&T growth has been so far. Secondly, you also need to factor in qualitative indexes (e.g. citation index, specialization index etc.) to see where the quality of Iran's output is going.

This is not the only source reporting Iran's scientific growth. Thomson Reuters as one of the most internationally trusted sources in scientific evaluations considers all high impact publications around the world and this report from Thomson Reuters shows the Arabian, Persian and Turkish Middle East' output is growing rapidly, exceeding Asia and Latin America in rate of increase. Among them Iran have had the highest rate of scientific growth during current years.

http://researchanalytics.thomsonreuters.com/m/pdfs/globalresearchreport-aptme.pdf