Lankan Ranger
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Aug 9, 2009
- Messages
- 12,550
- Reaction score
- 0
IRAN IN THE STRATEGIC MATRIX OF RUSSIA, CHINA AND INDIA
Introductory Observations:
Iran stands out prominently as the largest and most populous Islamic nation in the oil-rich region of West Asia. Iran possesses the major attributes of a regional power in West Asia by virtue of its geo-strategic location, larger size and human resources. It has sizeable revenues from oil and gas exports.
Irans geo-strategic location draws significant attention of all major powers. It has an appreciably long coastline on the North Arabian Sea and it singly dominates the entire Eastern flank of the Persian Gulf. It has long borders with Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It also borders on the residual republics of the Former Soviet Union. In the North, Iran also has a coastline on the Caspian Sea. Iran significantly shares borders with the Central Asian Republics Region. Iran could rightly be termed as the entereport for the Central Asian Republics.
In the last quarter of a century, in terms of conflictual relationships, it is the United States and Iraq which have figured heavily. Afghanistan under the Taliban and the Talibans patron-state of Pakistan also figured as strategic concerns for Iran in the last decade or so.
Significantly, Iran as the potential regional power of West Asia is an Islamic Shia state in marked contrast to the monarchial Sunni Sheikhdoms supported by the United States.
Irans geo-strategic location and its potential as a regional power led to the United States building it into one of the strategic pillars of American grand strategy in West Asia. This was during the Shah of Iran's regime in the1970s. With the ouster of the Shah of Iran in 1979 by the Islamic Cultural Revolution led by the late Ayatollah Khomenei and the military failure of the United States in the Iranian hostage crisis that ensued led to Iran figuring significantly as a strategic threat to United States security interests in West Asia. From then onwards Iran has been persona non grata with the United States.
Consequently, Iran thereafter figured intensely as an adversarial nation in the cross-hairs of United States military strategies in West Asia with particular reference to the Gulf. During the long Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the United States favoured Iraq militarily and politically. The point that needs to be noted is that in these long years of military travails, the Islamic Republic of Iran could not be tamed by the coercive political and military pressures of the United States, unlike Iraq.
Being under constant siege by the United States, Iran sometimes in the 1990s embarked on the quest for nuclear weapons with active support by Pakistan and the Pakistan Army Generals. The United States today claims that the nuclear programme of Iran, termed as a civilian peaceful programme for energy security is close to enabling Iran becoming a nuclear weapons power.
Iran stands heavily denounced by the United States and projected as a regional security threat. In line with United States strategies of pre-emption, Iran figures prominently along with North Korea as an axis of evil and state of proliferation concern whose nuclear programmes must be forced to rollback, even militarily, if need be.
In such a scenario, it is relevant to analyse as to what are the perceptions of other major global players on the Iranian issue as projected by the United States. The European Union, with the exception of the United Kingdom, is largely against American use of force and military preemption against Iran.
However, the strategic matrix in which Iran is perceived by the non-European key global players like Russia, China and India is of greater strategic significance and deserves detailed analysis.
The aim of this paper is to analyse the above and bring out the strategic convergences of Russia, China and India focusing on Iran.
Iran in the Russian Strategic Matrix:
This paper considers Russia as an Asian power in the context of Iran, not only because of the contiguity and proximity of Russias Asian regions to Iran, but also with NATO under United States pressure pushing NATO frontiers eastwards into Russias traditional area of influence, the Russian Federation is being so configured into a predominantly Asian power, notwithstanding its global power status.
Russia has had historical and traditional strategic interests in Iran right from the nineteenth century, by virtue of geographical contiguity and proximity of its widely spread regions.
Russias strategic matrix today takes Iran into account in the following ways:
Iran is the only foothold that Russia has today in West Asia. Both countries enjoy close political and military linkages.
Iran provides today a buffer on Russias Southern flank. It prevents American encroachment and strategic hemming-in of Russia from the South.
Irans military inventories today are predominantly of Russian origin. To a fair extent Iran provides sizeable revenues for the Russian defence industry.
Iran and Russia have cooperative linkages in the energy sector with sizeable mutual benefits to both.
Iran in some ways provides Russia with access to warm water ports of the Indian Ocean.
Russia can be said to have had no conflictual record with Iran for half a century now. Even in the days of the Shah of Irans military alliance with the United States, the Shah kept a politically correct relationship with the erstwhile Soviet Union.
In the nuclear context, the Russian President has gone on record to say that Iran has no nuclear weapons programme. Russia is also assisting Iran in the construction of a nuclear power plant. Further, Russia is committed to deliver 100 tons of nuclear fuel to Iran by the end of 2005.
Iran in the Chinese Strategic Matrix:
China can be termed as a late entrant strategically in the West Asian region. China however was strategically active in the contiguous Central Asian region in the 19th Century. China today as a rising global power has developed significant strategic interests in the region.
Iran figures in the Chinese strategic matrix in the following manner:
Iran can be said to be the only worthwhile political and military friend of China in West Asia.
Iran provides China with a strategic counter-pressure point against the United States in relation to Taiwan.
Iran is viewed as a prospective naval foothold for the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf.
The first steps in this direction have already taken place with China developing Gwadur in Pakistan as a prospective naval base. Gwadur is located on Pakistan's border with Iran.
Iranian Navy is considerably dependent on China for supplies of combat naval craft and naval missiles.
Iranian missile arsenal stands developed totally with Chinese assistance and by proxy through North Korea.
Iran is being significantly courted by China in relation to her exploding energy needs. China is reported to have signed a long term contract with Iran for about $100 billion.
China and Iran have had no conflictual record and both enjoy strategic convergences on crucial issues. Iranian analysts perceive China as a natural ally, since both China and Iran are viewed by the United States as anti-America and being targeted by the United States as such.
China has not gone on record explicitly in criticism of Iran's nuclear weapons programme.
Iran in Indias Strategic Matrix
India has a long history of traditional cultural links with Iran. In fact Persian was the court language of the Mughals and the official language of the British administration of local justice till the middle of the 19th century.Iran has adopted friendly attitudes towards India.
Iran figures in the strategic matrix of India in the following ways:
Iran figures heavily in Indias national security interests as a nation with which a strategic partnership is most desirable.
Iran provides Indias trade and commercial land access to Central Asian markets and Afghanistan.
India and Iran have a strategic convergence on the political independence and stability of Central Asia.
Iran's predominantly Russian military inventory profile provides prospects for maintenance contracts for Indias defence industry.
Iran offers a significant and vast market in close proximity for Indias trade and industry.
Iran offers a reliable and vital source for Indias expanding energy needs. Sizeable cooperation is already taking place.
The mutual convergences between India and Iran have resulted in asserting and crafting a strategic partnership as highlighted in the Teheran Declaration (2001) and the Delhi Declaration (2003).
Concluding Observations:
Russia, China and India have close ties with Iran with no conflictual record plaguing their relationship. Iran figures significantly in the strategic matrix of Russia, China and India and those cannot be subverted or subsumed to serve United States strategic interests.
Iran too has corresponding convergence of its national security interests with Russia, China and India and it is therefore not a one way street.
With the likelihood of United States employing military intervention and pre-emptive strategies against Irans nuclear programmes, it would be interesting to await and watch how Russia, China and India singly or jointly respond to United States veiled threats to use the military option against Irans nuclear weapons programme. It could be one case in which the European Union too may have convergences with Russia, China and India.
Russia, China and India cannot be faulted by the United States for Iran figuring in multiple ways advantageously in their respective strategic matrixes. While Iran may be viewed as a national security threat by the United States, the national security interests of Russia, China and India determine it to be otherwise.
Iran is not Iraq which can be subdued by American high technology warfare and military strategies of "shock and awe". It is a monolithic civilisational power with underpinnings of intense nationalism and Shia religious fervour.
Against the background above, the following questions arise:
Can USA go it alone in enforcing its unilateral military strikes against Irans nuclear facilities?
Would USA's policy of engaging Iran politically through intermediaries like the European Union bring about the desired results?
Can Russia, China and India influence Iran in any way in line with the United States strategic interests?
The answer to all three questions is NO. The United States has no choice but to engage Iran directly, officially and politically. The United States can ill afford to let its historical baggage of animosity towards Iran cloud its current decision making. Iran holds the key to West Asian stability and USA needs to recognize it.
IRAN IN THE STRATEGIC MATRIX OF RUSSIA-CHINA AND INDIA: An Analysis
Introductory Observations:
Iran stands out prominently as the largest and most populous Islamic nation in the oil-rich region of West Asia. Iran possesses the major attributes of a regional power in West Asia by virtue of its geo-strategic location, larger size and human resources. It has sizeable revenues from oil and gas exports.
Irans geo-strategic location draws significant attention of all major powers. It has an appreciably long coastline on the North Arabian Sea and it singly dominates the entire Eastern flank of the Persian Gulf. It has long borders with Iraq, Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It also borders on the residual republics of the Former Soviet Union. In the North, Iran also has a coastline on the Caspian Sea. Iran significantly shares borders with the Central Asian Republics Region. Iran could rightly be termed as the entereport for the Central Asian Republics.
In the last quarter of a century, in terms of conflictual relationships, it is the United States and Iraq which have figured heavily. Afghanistan under the Taliban and the Talibans patron-state of Pakistan also figured as strategic concerns for Iran in the last decade or so.
Significantly, Iran as the potential regional power of West Asia is an Islamic Shia state in marked contrast to the monarchial Sunni Sheikhdoms supported by the United States.
Irans geo-strategic location and its potential as a regional power led to the United States building it into one of the strategic pillars of American grand strategy in West Asia. This was during the Shah of Iran's regime in the1970s. With the ouster of the Shah of Iran in 1979 by the Islamic Cultural Revolution led by the late Ayatollah Khomenei and the military failure of the United States in the Iranian hostage crisis that ensued led to Iran figuring significantly as a strategic threat to United States security interests in West Asia. From then onwards Iran has been persona non grata with the United States.
Consequently, Iran thereafter figured intensely as an adversarial nation in the cross-hairs of United States military strategies in West Asia with particular reference to the Gulf. During the long Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, the United States favoured Iraq militarily and politically. The point that needs to be noted is that in these long years of military travails, the Islamic Republic of Iran could not be tamed by the coercive political and military pressures of the United States, unlike Iraq.
Being under constant siege by the United States, Iran sometimes in the 1990s embarked on the quest for nuclear weapons with active support by Pakistan and the Pakistan Army Generals. The United States today claims that the nuclear programme of Iran, termed as a civilian peaceful programme for energy security is close to enabling Iran becoming a nuclear weapons power.
Iran stands heavily denounced by the United States and projected as a regional security threat. In line with United States strategies of pre-emption, Iran figures prominently along with North Korea as an axis of evil and state of proliferation concern whose nuclear programmes must be forced to rollback, even militarily, if need be.
In such a scenario, it is relevant to analyse as to what are the perceptions of other major global players on the Iranian issue as projected by the United States. The European Union, with the exception of the United Kingdom, is largely against American use of force and military preemption against Iran.
However, the strategic matrix in which Iran is perceived by the non-European key global players like Russia, China and India is of greater strategic significance and deserves detailed analysis.
The aim of this paper is to analyse the above and bring out the strategic convergences of Russia, China and India focusing on Iran.
Iran in the Russian Strategic Matrix:
This paper considers Russia as an Asian power in the context of Iran, not only because of the contiguity and proximity of Russias Asian regions to Iran, but also with NATO under United States pressure pushing NATO frontiers eastwards into Russias traditional area of influence, the Russian Federation is being so configured into a predominantly Asian power, notwithstanding its global power status.
Russia has had historical and traditional strategic interests in Iran right from the nineteenth century, by virtue of geographical contiguity and proximity of its widely spread regions.
Russias strategic matrix today takes Iran into account in the following ways:
Iran is the only foothold that Russia has today in West Asia. Both countries enjoy close political and military linkages.
Iran provides today a buffer on Russias Southern flank. It prevents American encroachment and strategic hemming-in of Russia from the South.
Irans military inventories today are predominantly of Russian origin. To a fair extent Iran provides sizeable revenues for the Russian defence industry.
Iran and Russia have cooperative linkages in the energy sector with sizeable mutual benefits to both.
Iran in some ways provides Russia with access to warm water ports of the Indian Ocean.
Russia can be said to have had no conflictual record with Iran for half a century now. Even in the days of the Shah of Irans military alliance with the United States, the Shah kept a politically correct relationship with the erstwhile Soviet Union.
In the nuclear context, the Russian President has gone on record to say that Iran has no nuclear weapons programme. Russia is also assisting Iran in the construction of a nuclear power plant. Further, Russia is committed to deliver 100 tons of nuclear fuel to Iran by the end of 2005.
Iran in the Chinese Strategic Matrix:
China can be termed as a late entrant strategically in the West Asian region. China however was strategically active in the contiguous Central Asian region in the 19th Century. China today as a rising global power has developed significant strategic interests in the region.
Iran figures in the Chinese strategic matrix in the following manner:
Iran can be said to be the only worthwhile political and military friend of China in West Asia.
Iran provides China with a strategic counter-pressure point against the United States in relation to Taiwan.
Iran is viewed as a prospective naval foothold for the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf.
The first steps in this direction have already taken place with China developing Gwadur in Pakistan as a prospective naval base. Gwadur is located on Pakistan's border with Iran.
Iranian Navy is considerably dependent on China for supplies of combat naval craft and naval missiles.
Iranian missile arsenal stands developed totally with Chinese assistance and by proxy through North Korea.
Iran is being significantly courted by China in relation to her exploding energy needs. China is reported to have signed a long term contract with Iran for about $100 billion.
China and Iran have had no conflictual record and both enjoy strategic convergences on crucial issues. Iranian analysts perceive China as a natural ally, since both China and Iran are viewed by the United States as anti-America and being targeted by the United States as such.
China has not gone on record explicitly in criticism of Iran's nuclear weapons programme.
Iran in Indias Strategic Matrix
India has a long history of traditional cultural links with Iran. In fact Persian was the court language of the Mughals and the official language of the British administration of local justice till the middle of the 19th century.Iran has adopted friendly attitudes towards India.
Iran figures in the strategic matrix of India in the following ways:
Iran figures heavily in Indias national security interests as a nation with which a strategic partnership is most desirable.
Iran provides Indias trade and commercial land access to Central Asian markets and Afghanistan.
India and Iran have a strategic convergence on the political independence and stability of Central Asia.
Iran's predominantly Russian military inventory profile provides prospects for maintenance contracts for Indias defence industry.
Iran offers a significant and vast market in close proximity for Indias trade and industry.
Iran offers a reliable and vital source for Indias expanding energy needs. Sizeable cooperation is already taking place.
The mutual convergences between India and Iran have resulted in asserting and crafting a strategic partnership as highlighted in the Teheran Declaration (2001) and the Delhi Declaration (2003).
Concluding Observations:
Russia, China and India have close ties with Iran with no conflictual record plaguing their relationship. Iran figures significantly in the strategic matrix of Russia, China and India and those cannot be subverted or subsumed to serve United States strategic interests.
Iran too has corresponding convergence of its national security interests with Russia, China and India and it is therefore not a one way street.
With the likelihood of United States employing military intervention and pre-emptive strategies against Irans nuclear programmes, it would be interesting to await and watch how Russia, China and India singly or jointly respond to United States veiled threats to use the military option against Irans nuclear weapons programme. It could be one case in which the European Union too may have convergences with Russia, China and India.
Russia, China and India cannot be faulted by the United States for Iran figuring in multiple ways advantageously in their respective strategic matrixes. While Iran may be viewed as a national security threat by the United States, the national security interests of Russia, China and India determine it to be otherwise.
Iran is not Iraq which can be subdued by American high technology warfare and military strategies of "shock and awe". It is a monolithic civilisational power with underpinnings of intense nationalism and Shia religious fervour.
Against the background above, the following questions arise:
Can USA go it alone in enforcing its unilateral military strikes against Irans nuclear facilities?
Would USA's policy of engaging Iran politically through intermediaries like the European Union bring about the desired results?
Can Russia, China and India influence Iran in any way in line with the United States strategic interests?
The answer to all three questions is NO. The United States has no choice but to engage Iran directly, officially and politically. The United States can ill afford to let its historical baggage of animosity towards Iran cloud its current decision making. Iran holds the key to West Asian stability and USA needs to recognize it.
IRAN IN THE STRATEGIC MATRIX OF RUSSIA-CHINA AND INDIA: An Analysis
MEDIA
