Iran’s Chabahar won’t vie with Pakistan’s Gwadar: Experts

[randomradio]

Dear it is just another TOI article. Full of patriotic chest thumping and boasting. I wont read too much into this.

What are you talking about? The ToI article is quoting a Chinese media mouthpiece.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/986945.shtml

Global Times is a CCP run media. So what they say is basically what CCP is saying.

And they are saying they don't like Chabahar.

 

[Post Colonnial]

how can it NOT affect Gwadar? Chahabar and Gawadar are very close to each other. Chahabar takes away the monopoly situation it would otherwise had for access to / from Afghanistan and Central Asia. Not just Gawadar, even Pakistan's once 'strategic' blackmail dominance such as preventing access to Afghanistan for supplies is gone now. We can supply all we can and want to Afghanistan ...oh by the way, we can do that using cheap Iranian fuel in the process. Neither China not Pakistan can run trucks through their corridor using as cheap fuel as we can get from Iran.

 

[Arsalan]

What are you talking about? The ToI article is quoting a Chinese media mouthpiece.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/986945.shtml

Global Times is a CCP run media. So what they say is basically what CCP is saying.

And they are saying they don't like Chabahar.

Sir "Not like" by no means equates to "being threatened" as it is being made to sound like. I am feeling that there is nothing coming out of this argument. The decisions have been made in minds about what you want result you are looking for and we will just keep jumping from one point to another for no apparent reason. I have said all i had to and provided enough reasoning for that, my point remains the same as it was in the very beginning. Chabhar though important for India and Iran and may be Afghanistan wont come close to the CPEC as far as trade with China is concerned and that CPEC and Chabahar wont be on a one on one competition course.

 

[R Wing]

how can it NOT affect Gwadar? Chahabar and Gawadar are very close to each other. Chahabar takes away the monopoly situation it would otherwise had for access to / from Afghanistan and Central Asia. Not just Gawadar, even Pakistan's once 'strategic' blackmail dominance such as preventing access to Afghanistan for supplies is gone now. We can supply all we can and want to Afghanistan ...oh by the way, we can do that using cheap Iranian fuel in the process. Neither China not Pakistan can run trucks through their corridor using as cheap fuel as we can get from Iran.

Chahabar is good for Gwadar --- all larger vessels requiring a deep sea port will have to use Gwadar. Chahabar is not a deep sea port --- this has been Gwadar's main "selling point" and it remains to this day. And you're stuck on cheap fuel.

China is a giant. There is no country in the world, and definitely not in the region, that can even come remotely close to its prowess (other than the US, of course, which is maintaining its position as the sole hyper-power mainly by keeping the US Dollar as the "global currency."). By one well-regarded estimate, its military budget alone is more than the combined budgets of India, Russia, France and the UK. That's something.

These ports are good for everyone in the region. Let's agree to leave it at that?

 

[randomradio]

Chahabar is good for Gwadar --- all larger vessels requiring a deep sea port will have to use Gwadar. Chahabar is not a deep sea port --- this has been Gwadar's main "selling point" and it remains to this day. And you're stuck on cheap fuel.

China is a giant. There is no country in the world, and definitely not in the region, that can even come remotely close to its prowess (other than the US, of course, which is maintaining its position as the sole hyper-power mainly by keeping the US Dollar as the "global currency."). By one well-regarded estimate, its military budget alone is more than the combined budgets of India, Russia, France and the UK. That's something.

These ports are good for everyone in the region. Let's agree to leave it at that?

Chabahar will be a deep sea port in 18 months.

Sir "Not like" by no means equates to "being threatened" as it is being made to sound like. I am feeling that there is nothing coming out of this argument. The decisions have been made in minds about what you want result you are looking for and we will just keep jumping from one point to another for no apparent reason. I have said all i had to and provided enough reasoning for that, my point remains the same as it was in the very beginning. Chabhar though important for India and Iran and may be Afghanistan wont come close to the CPEC as far as trade with China is concerned and that CPEC and Chabahar wont be on a one on one competition course.

I still don't think you have understood the scale of Chabahar. It is replacing the Suez Canal for India, as it will for the rest of East Asia. It is literally replacing the Suez Canal. It is literally cutting down travel time by 26 days. The entire trip from Mumbai to Russia is 40 days. That will become 14 days once the entire project is completed.

We are not talking about just India-Iran-Aghanistan. We are talking about Europe, Central Asia, Africa and East Asia. We are talking about 3 continents. If it was only India, Iran and Afghanistan, then CCP wouldn't be making such a fuss. There have been two articles in a span of just two days.

The Japanese and Koreans are already investing in Chabahar. Power plants, steel mills.
http://en.mehrnews.com/news/109947/Iran-S-Korea-to-build-power-plant-in-Chabahar

Korea Electric Power Corporation, better known as KEPCO has voiced its preparedness to build a 1,000 megawatt power plant in southeastern Iran.

Hank (Ki Hwang) Hahm, the CEO of the Korean electric utility, said KEPCO is ready to invest and set up a power plant in Chabahar free zone.

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2016/02/123_199286.html

The world's fourth-largest steelmaker said it will cost about $1.6 billion to construct the FINEX plant, capable of producing 1.6 million tons of steel annually, in Iran's Chabahar Free Trade-Industrial Zone (CFZ).

These are not decisions "made in mind", these decisions are happening on the ground.

India is also planning $2B worth of rail and road links and of course the gas pipeline that will go into billions more. All of these are happening and they are not long term goals.

 

[Arsalan]

Chabahar will be a deep sea port in 18 months.



I still don't think you have understood the scale of Chabahar. It is replacing the Suez Canal for India, as it will for the rest of East Asia. It is literally replacing the Suez Canal. It is literally cutting down travel time by 26 days. The entire trip from Mumbai to Russia is 40 days. That will become 14 days once the entire project is completed.

We are not talking about just India-Iran-Aghanistan. We are talking about Europe, Central Asia, Africa and East Asia. We are talking about 3 continents. If it was only India, Iran and Afghanistan, then CCP wouldn't be making such a fuss. There have been two articles in a span of just two days.

The Japanese and Koreans are already investing in Chabahar. Power plants, steel mills.
http://en.mehrnews.com/news/109947/Iran-S-Korea-to-build-power-plant-in-Chabahar


http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2016/02/123_199286.html


These are not decisions "made in mind", these decisions are happening on the ground.

India is also planning $2B worth of rail and road links and of course the gas pipeline that will go into billions more. All of these are happening and they are not long term goals.

Oh come on, you are now saying that the road/rail network is going to replace the sea route?
So it have all come down to this now? From China specific to Africa favorable to Afghan minerals to this now? Just tell me you are suggesting that this road/rail link that runs almost parallel to suez will replace the sea route? This is absurd to say the least sir. I am completely at loss where you are getting your points from. There do see to be a huge large variety of them.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Dear friend, again i will request you not to draw up assumptions and arguments based on what conclusion you are willing to get to, this can never turn out into a constructive debate. From this very map, see for yourself where the African will have to do to to get into China to, lets say Beijing, if they opt for Iranian route and avoid Afghanistan and compare it to the alternative that the Gwadar will offer. Once you consider this you will see the difference. Not to mention the Indian influence vs Chinese influence thing. The geography will speak for itself and politics will be the second line of defense only. Chabahar do not offers a more suitable route into China compared to Gwadar. It do not offers a more suitable route into Europe compared to Suez. The fact is that the port will hugely benefit Iran, Indian interests in the region will be protected and will provide better access to India into Afghanistan so they can keep there proxy war going on there without having to pass through Pakistan. These alone and big enough advantages sir and if anyone undermines the importance of Chabahar then they are wrong. The only thing i am trying to explain is that Chabahar and Gwadar wont come to a one on on competition due to there geographic positioning. However as i said, the aim to reach a conclusion before starting the discussion is not helpful sir.

the "sir" is compelled to deny due to a certain conditioning. but the debate is helpful for rest of the audience.
according to Indian members here "there is no such thing as free lunch" and China is only seeking tis benefit from Pakistan

BUT
this rule doesn't apply to INDIAN investments in Iran or Afghanistan

its only goodness, and pureness of heart and soul which is physically manifested as Afghan parliament & Dam and Chabahar port (excluding the monkey we caught wondering into Pakistan from farari camps).

Gawader port is already backed up with a viable and functioning road link to China. Chabahar's route via Iran to Afghanistan will be interesting and challenging to say the least, and if the purpose is purely economic then hopefully deep Indian pockets will continue to feed this bottomless pit for the foreseeable future when even the political landscape is undecided.

on the other hand, if its a beach head against China and Pakistani flank then again it is very ambitious and will prove too much for current Indian over optimism because of two volatile elements that affect its future..

1 Iranian Clergy with its confrontational attitude towards the world (resulting in a new set of possible UN embargoes) 2 Afghan warlords, drug lords and terror groups that will make its proposed approach to Kabul a constant pain.

 

[Arsalan]

the "sir" is compelled to deny due to a certain conditioning. but the debate is helpful for rest of the audience.
according to Indian members here "there is no such thing as free lunch" and China is only seeking tis benefit from Pakistan

BUT
this rule doesn't apply to INDIAN investments in Iran or Afghanistan

its only goodness, and pureness of heart and soul which is physically manifested as Afghan parliament & Dam and Chabahar port (excluding the monkey we caught wondering into Pakistan from farari camps).

Gawader port is already backed up with a viable and functioning road link to China. Chabahar's route via Iran to Afghanistan will be interesting and challenging to say the least, and if the purpose is purely economic then hopefully deep Indian pockets will continue to feed this bottomless pit for the foreseeable future when even the political landscape is undecided.

on the other hand, if its a beach head against China and Pakistani flank then again it is very ambitious and will prove too much for current Indian over optimism because of two volatile elements that affect its future..

1 Iranian Clergy with its confrontational attitude towards the world (resulting in a new set of possible UN embargoes) 2 Afghan warlords, drug lords and terror groups that will make its proposed approach to Kabul a constant pain.

Exactly, there are so many things at play here. Perhaps this is the reason the argument have changed from:

1. Chabahar is more suitable for Africa-China trade
   
2. It is at least more suitable access to Europe for Africa
3. Not Africa, but it provides better access to Afghanistan for India
4. It is going to replace Suez canal

The ground realities remain that Gwadar, a deep sea port sitting at a strategic locations and being of great interest to both Pakistan and China will, if utilized to its true potential, be way more beneficial for the region compared to Chabahar. Chabahar is surely of great importance to India but that is about it.

What amazes me if that our neighbors do have the never to comment when we talk about CPEC and its potential and call it delusions and boasting, all while trying to prove Chabahar have one advantage or another (switching quite rapidly).

I for one if of the view that no mere port or road will be bring any good, it will be the parties that are involved in the project, not construction but future use that will determine the success of one project. Chabahar and Gwadar wont be on a head on collision course for years to come at least. Plus the clergy in Iran, you never can be sure what it to come. Unth kis karwat bathya,, no one knows!

 

[v9s]

1. It is going to replace Suez canal

How is Chabahar going to replace Suez canal? You'll still have to transport goods over land which will be more expensive than transporting via sea.

 

[Arsalan]

How is Chabahar going to replace Suez canal? You'll still have to transport goods over land which will be more expensive than transporting via sea.

It is NOT ME saying this,, in fact, i am the one arguing with that point.
https://defence.pk/threads/iran’s-c...n’s-gwadar-experts.433181/page-6#post-8366523

Perhaps if you look at the discussion you will understand the post better.

 

[v9s]

It is NOT ME saying this,, in fact, i am the one arguing with that point.
https://defence.pk/threads/iran’s-chabahar-won’t-vie-with-pakistan’s-gwadar-experts.433181/page-6#post-8366523

Perhaps if you look at the discussion you will understand the post better.

I know you aren't. Unfortunately the member who made this point is all over the place so I quoted you.

 

[randomradio]

Oh come on, you are now saying that the road/rail network is going to replace the sea route?

It depends on which rail link you are talking about, the NSTC or the Chabahar-Zahedan-Afghan rail link.

The NSTC will replace Suez and is a 3 nation project, Iran, Russia and India, with many partner countries.

But the $1.6B rail proposed link is for Iran and Afghanistan. And in the Chabahar region specifically, India plans up to $15B in investments. The NSTC project is different.

Just tell me you are suggesting that this road/rail link that runs almost parallel to suez will replace the sea route?

Yes, it will replace the sea route because the sea route takes two to three times longer and costs a bomb. There will be savings of $2500 for every 15 tons of cargo over the NSTC land route.

Suez will be used by India for trade between some European countries, North Africa and the US. For Russia, Eastern Europe and Northern Europe, NSTC will come into play. For Russia also NSTC is strategic because of their EEU plan. It will give them direct access to India, the Middle East and Africa.

From China specific to Africa favorable to Afghan minerals to this now?

They are all interlinked. Even Japan and S Korea.

the "sir" is compelled to deny due to a certain conditioning. but the debate is helpful for rest of the audience.
according to Indian members here "there is no such thing as free lunch" and China is only seeking tis benefit from Pakistan

BUT
this rule doesn't apply to INDIAN investments in Iran or Afghanistan

its only goodness, and pureness of heart and soul which is physically manifested as Afghan parliament & Dam and Chabahar port

All the sarcasm aside, you are wrong about one thing. India's investments into Iran and Afghanistan are investments. China's CPEC is a loan.

Iran and Afghan are not going to pay back all the investments to India. Pakistan has to pay back the Chinese loans over the next 50 years. So Iran and Afghan are getting a free lunch. And in exchange India gets access to Central Asia and Afghan's mineral deposits.

 

[randomradio]

Exactly, there are so many things at play here. Perhaps this is the reason the argument have changed from:

1. Chabahar is more suitable for Africa-China trade

Yes. Because Iran will be a trade hub between NSTC and Silk Road. Pakistan will not. Pakistan is only a conduit into China.

It is easier for an African company to brings goods to the Iranian hub and use the Silk Road infrastructure to channel goods into China, Europe or Central Asia. But specific goods only to China can go through CPEC. That's why I said it depends.

2. It is at least more suitable access to Europe for Africa

Hubs have better infrastructure. And the Gwadar port was built for the same reasons by China, access to the ME and East Africa. So it's obvious the NSTC will give Africa access to Europe.

Apart from CPEC and NSTC, there is also the BMIC which connects Kunming to Kolkata through Myanmar and BD.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...-economic-corridor-project/article7355496.ece

And Modi plans to connect Kolkata to the rest of India with bullet trains and high speed freight trains as well. This is another route for African goods to pass through to China.

The ground realities remain that Gwadar, a deep sea port sitting at a strategic locations and being of great interest to both Pakistan and China will, if utilized to its true potential, be way more beneficial for the region compared to Chabahar. Chabahar is surely of great importance to India but that is about it.

I have never dismissed the importance of Gwadar to China or Pakistan. What I have questioned is the importance of Gwadar to other countries who can instead use Iran as a trade hub.

Chabahar and Gwadar wont be on a head on collision course for years to come at least.

In just 18 months, maybe lesser.

Please note that these are not loans to Iranian firms.
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india...development/story-ShCXzf7MNodhyro3G5WYSM.html

These are investments by Indian firms.

Plus the clergy in Iran, you never can be sure what it to come. Unth kis karwat bathya,, no one knows!

It won't affect India if the clergy is in competition with the West. For India, the Iranian route is a hub and that won't affect India's trade with Af or Europe. The western sanctions did not affect India-Iran oil trade either. So any sanctions won't affect India.

In case Iran gets embroiled in a war with the US, trade will only get temporarily halted and will resume again after the war.

How is Chabahar going to replace Suez canal? You'll still have to transport goods over land which will be more expensive than transporting via sea.

The NSTC is cheaper than the Suez route.

 

[temporary12345]

Two ports less than 100Km from each other would not compete!!!

Axact university strikes again.....

 

[I M Sikander]

Chahabar takes away the monopoly situation it would otherwise had for access to / from Afghanistan and Central Asia

Pakistan has never denied use of his ports to Afghanistan. Not even during war times. Afghan transit trade has never being stopped by Pakistan.

supply all we can and want to Afghanistan ...oh by the way, we can do that using cheap Iranian fuel in the process. Neither China not Pakistan can run trucks through their corridor using as cheap fuel as we can get from Iran.

Cheap Iranian furl is already available all across Pakistan, thanks to smugglers.

Chahbahar is yet to materialize whereas Gawadar will be fully functional by Dec this year. So we won't mind a healthy competition with Chahbahar.