Iran’s Chabahar won’t vie with Pakistan’s Gwadar: Experts

[randomradio]

It's part of one and that's all that matters. The gulf or Africa wants to trade with China - most ideal route is Gwadar.

It depends on the success of CPEC, Silk Road and NSTC.

Well yeah - be clear next time. ML-1 is being upgraded to high speed (160 km/h) and that will be completed by 2019. From there on: Motorway -> KKH

Those are not high speed freight corridors.

Pakistan is still working towards a freight corridor. And 170 locomotives is too less for transit trade.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1186509

You agree now, but you were all over the place before.

Nope. I have been saying the same thing. Just because I agree with some things doesn't mean the problems CPEC and Pak faces disappears. You guys are just hung up on the 'apparent' benefits of CPEC, but are completely oblivious to competition and the changing trade dynamics and the way it can change those benefits very quickly. And when I bring those problems up for discussion, you don't give solutions to that, you are all in denial.

Like you have just assumed India won't place trade hurdles for goods passing through Gilgit-Baltistan. Why is that?

The question is how does any of that benefit Pakistan. All that you have said only benefits China. Whether African trade comes in from India or Iran or Pakistan, China benefits from that trade. Eastern China is not dependent on trade from Pakistan anyway since the main source of trade will be Central Asia and Europe, that's where most of Beijing's investment is going, over $150B in the first phase.

The fact is trade between China and Pakistan will only be by road for at least the next 15 years. You need to figure out getting around the weakness of such a system.

There is a heaven and earth difference between Iran and Pakistan with respect to China when it comes to trade. It's so weird that you guys can't see it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ee-to-expand-trade-to-600-billion-in-a-decade

Look at the biggest problems you have... Where is the infrastructure for freight transport? Where is the rail link between China and Pak? How are you going to deal with competition from Iran who are planning to expand trade with China to $600B many years before a China-Pak rail link is built? What are the capacities of these rail links when built? What access does Pak have to Central Asia? How will Pak conduct direct trade with Europe over land?

You don't have answers to any of these. You are only in denial. China-Saudi trade is $71B. By the next decade, it could be over $100B. What makes you think Pakistan can do transit trade only by road for such large amounts of cargo with just one country, let alone the whole of East Africa and a ton of other Southeast Asian countries?

And there is already a rail link between Tehran and China operational right now. That's a 15 year head start over Pakistan. Another advantage is China, Iran and Europe use the same rail gauge, which means you don't need to transfer goods to another train. Pakistan doesn't.

Sorry, guys, but your most ideal route through Gwadar cannot handle the trade capacities expected. In fact, India has already pointed out that the Iranian railways needs to be expanded in order to handle the trade through NSTC and the Iranians have already begun fixing that.

 

[v9s]

Those are not high speed freight corridors.

Pakistan is still working towards a freight corridor. And 170 locomotives is too less for transit trade.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1186509

Can you give me examples of high speed freight corridors that have been built and are in use? As far as I know, HSR for passengers isn't that profitable, I don't know if it'll be cost effective for freight.

Nope. I have been saying the same thing. Just because I agree with some things doesn't mean the problems CPEC and Pak faces disappears. You guys are just hung up on the 'apparent' benefits of CPEC, but are completely oblivious to competition and the changing trade dynamics and the way it can change those benefits very quickly. And when I bring those problems up for discussion, you don't give solutions to that, you are all in denial.

Umm no. Most, even you, bring forth "knowledge" of CPEC from our newspapers and love to play critic, thinking you've brought forward some unseen information, while Pakistanis here see that as unconstructive trolling. CPEC isn't something new, it was initiated in 2006 - let the experts figure it out because no Pakistani here gives a flying f*ck about what some random Indian has to say.

Like you have just assumed India won't place trade hurdles for goods passing through Gilgit-Baltistan. Why is that?

CPEC is a $50 Billion project - I'm sure that the relevant people have a plan in place when India plays that card. Meanwhile, don't lose sleep over it.

The question is how does any of that benefit Pakistan. All that you have said only benefits China. Whether African trade comes in from India or Iran or Pakistan, China benefits from that trade. Eastern China is not dependent on trade from Pakistan anyway since the main source of trade will be Central Asia and Europe, that's where most of Beijing's investment is going, over $150B in the first phase.

No, i've only mentioned benefits of CPEC to China because that's what we were talking about vis a vis Global trade. See, you're all over the place. Stick to one thing. CPEC benefits to Pakistan are numerous. Infra upgrade and expansion, energy projects, set up of economic zones in more backward areas - all are industry triggers which have to potential to revitalize the economy.

Look at the biggest problems you have... Where is the infrastructure for freight transport?

Being built - KKH upgrade underway, motorways being built, trucking companies witnessing an increased trend in truck purchases. Go through the CPEC pictures thread.

Where is the rail link between China and Pak?

You answered that yourself - 2030 remember? Feasibility studies have been conducted already? I'm pretty sure in the attempt to bring inane arguments forward, you've already licked the wikipedia page on CPEC clean.

How are you going to deal with competition from Iran who are planning to expand trade with China to $600B many years before a China-Pak rail link is built? What are the capacities of these rail links when built? What access does Pak have to Central Asia? How will Pak conduct direct trade with Europe over land?

Good! You have homework to do! Now run along and find the answers.

You don't have answers to any of these. You are only in denial. China-Saudi trade is $71B. By the next decade, it could be over $100B. What makes you think Pakistan can do transit trade only by road for such large amounts of cargo with just one country, let alone the whole of East Africa and a ton of other Southeast Asian countries?

Not just roads being built - Rail is being upgraded - oil pipepline feasibility being done. Don't hurt your little head over these issues. I may not have the answers (because frankly i don't really give a shit about your questions to begin to dig deeper), but it's cute to see that to assuage your ego after all your previous questions have been satisfactorily answered, you've begun to get anal about small things (and let's be honest, you're just regurgitating the questions more informed people have already asked). Quit being a smartass.

@Arsalan could you deal with this troll.

 

[randomradio]

Can you give me examples of high speed freight corridors that have been built and are in use? As far as I know, HSR for passengers isn't that profitable, I don't know if it'll be cost effective for freight.

Five freight corridors are in the process or planned for India.
http://www.thehindu.com/business/bu...rs-to-be-built-on-priority/article8281405.ece

Umm no. Most, even you, bring forth "knowledge" of CPEC from our newspapers and love to play critic, thinking you've brought forward some unseen information, while Pakistanis here see that as unconstructive trolling. CPEC isn't something new, it was initiated in 2006 - let the experts figure it out because no Pakistani here gives a flying f*ck about what some random Indian has to say.

All these projects are initiated many years in advance. That doesn't mean much.

Experts are people working for companies, Chinese companies in the case of CPEC, what makes you think they have the best interests of Pak in heart? And don't tell me you have taken that on face value.

Anyway, I am not talking about any sort of China-Pak advantage with CPEC.

CPEC is a $50 Billion project - I'm sure that the relevant people have a plan in place when India plays that card. Meanwhile, don't lose sleep over it.

You are in denial. There is no proper analysis of these programs available. Or your leaders wouldn't be asking such questions.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949

And note I am not talking about energy or your passenger train routes, I am talking based on the threat title, Gwadar and Chabahar as competitors.

No, i've only mentioned benefits of CPEC to China because that's what we were talking about vis a vis Global trade. See, you're all over the place. Stick to one thing. CPEC benefits to Pakistan are numerous. Infra upgrade and expansion, energy projects, set up of economic zones in more backward areas - all are industry triggers which have to potential to revitalize the economy.

I only appear to be all over the place because you don't seem to be understanding what I am saying.

I don't care how it impacts Pakistan, or China. What I am saying is how will it impact Kenya or Indonesia? As for Chabahar, I am saying these countries will use that route, not Gwadar. And they will use that because Iran has connectivity that Pak lacks. That's about it. The economic zones in Pak, the energy projects, they are irrelevant to transit trade.

The more I post, the lesser you seem to understand.

Being built - KKH upgrade underway, motorways being built, trucking companies witnessing an increased trend in truck purchases. Go through the CPEC pictures thread.

This is obvious, since it's a road route. Did they purchase 20000 or 30000 trucks for transit trade? The Chinese-German rail trade alone is 30000 containers a year, to be expanded to 100,000 containers a year in the next few years. This has been my point all along. CPEC is not a global route, it is merely a conduit.

You answered that yourself - 2030 remember? Feasibility studies have been conducted already? I'm pretty sure in the attempt to bring inane arguments forward, you've already licked the wikipedia page on CPEC clean.

Good! You have homework to do! Now run along and find the answers.

You are only proving more and more than you are in denial. The Gwadar link into China is a very small trade route, yet to expand to a large route enough for global trade.

This practically kills Gwadar as any sort of competitor to Chabahar. This has been my point all along.

Not just roads being built - Rail is being upgraded - oil pipepline feasibility being done. Don't hurt your little head over these issues. I may not have the answers (because frankly i don't really give a shit about your questions to begin to dig deeper), but it's cute to see that to assuage your ego after all your previous questions have been satisfactorily answered, you've begun to get anal about small things (and let's be honest, you're just regurgitating the questions more informed people have already asked). Quit being a smartass.

So thanks for confirming that you really don't have a clue about what you were talking about.

 

[v9s]

Five freight corridors are in the process or planned for India.
http://www.thehindu.com/business/bu...rs-to-be-built-on-priority/article8281405.ece

They don't talk about speed. That was the point of contention innit?

All these projects are initiated many years in advance. That doesn't mean much.

Experts are people working for companies, Chinese companies in the case of CPEC, what makes you think they have the best interests of Pak in heart? And don't tell me you have taken that on face value.

Anyway, I am not talking about any sort of China-Pak advantage with CPEC.

Blah blah blah. Opinions. You don't know either, so quit acting like you do.

You are in denial. There is no proper analysis of these programs available. Or your leaders wouldn't be asking such questions.
http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949

http://www.dawn.com/news/1236949
Our leaders aren't the ones involved in the nitty gritties of the programs. They're as clueless as you.

And note I am not talking about energy or your passenger train routes, I am talking based on the threat title, Gwadar and Chabahar as competitors.

There you go jumping around from one point to the other. It's funny - you say you aren't talking about those things, but you keep asking questions about them

I only appear to be all over the place because you don't seem to be understanding what I am saying.

Nahhh...i understand enough. You're just throwing things on this thread, hoping they stick. No coherent points. You ARE all over the place.

I don't care how it impacts Pakistan, or China.

Oh but you asked the question about benefit of CPEC to Pak, didn't you?

What I am saying is how will it impact Kenya or Indonesia? As for Chabahar, I am saying these countries will use that route, not Gwadar. And they will use that because Iran has connectivity that Pak lacks. That's about it. The economic zones in Pak, the energy projects, they are irrelevant to transit trade.

And i know that dumbass - obviously the economic zones and energy projects are irrelevant to transit trade. Kenya would use Gwadar to trade with China. Indonesia would not - the eastern route into China from Shanghai is shorter for them - are you an idiot of some sort? Use common sense.

The more I post, the lesser you seem to understand.

The more you post, the more I realize you're a troll pretending to discuss.

This is obvious, since it's a road route. Did they purchase 20000 or 30000 trucks for transit trade? The Chinese-German rail trade alone is 30000 containers a year, to be expanded to 100,000 containers a year in the next few years. This has been my point all along. CPEC is not a global route, it is merely a conduit.

Well when the cargo comes in, the traders will buy new trucks won't they? Forgot demand and supply? CPEC isn't even complete yet.

Traders are going to be pragmatic about the situation obviously. Seriously...it seems you're a child because I have to dumb down everything for you.

You are only proving more and more than you are in denial. The Gwadar link into China is a very small trade route, yet to expand to a large route enough for global trade.

This practically kills Gwadar as any sort of competitor to Chabahar. This has been my point all along.

I don't know...it seems you Indians have been hell bent on making it a competitor. Gwadar is meant for trade with China.

So thanks for confirming that you really don't have a clue about what you were talking about.

And neither do you. So to prove that you aren't a troll, I want detailed answers to the questions directed to me with sources backing them up - not just a bunch of links. I don't want your opinions, because frankly, your words are worth wiping my *** on.

 

[randomradio]

They don't talk about speed. That was the point of contention innit?

Average speeds are to increase from 25-40Kmph today to 60-100Kmph for freight. Plus increased cargo carrying capacity by each train, roughly doubled.

There you go jumping around from one point to the other. It's funny - you say you aren't talking about those things, but you keep asking questions about them

I don't. Other people like to bring up off topic stuff. I never had any intention of discussion CPEC and its energy projects or passenger rail projects. My main point of contention has still not changed, connectivity through Pak vs connectivity through Iran for trade.

Nahhh...i understand enough. You're just throwing things on this thread, hoping they stick. No coherent points. You ARE all over the place.

Then let's only discuss connectivity because that's the only thing I really want to discuss. We won't be all over the place if you don't bring in Pak-China trade.

Oh but you asked the question about benefit of CPEC to Pak, didn't you?

I did, but only in terms of connectivity and what Pak's offering for connectivity through their land for other countries.

And i know that dumbass - obviously the economic zones and energy projects are irrelevant to transit trade. Kenya would use Gwadar to trade with China. Indonesia would not - the eastern route into China from Shanghai is shorter for them - are you an idiot of some sort? Use common sense.

So you understand a bit. Now you can remove the insults and stick to the topic.

I wasn't talking about Indonesia trading with China, but with Europe. A Shanghai route is now pointless for Indonesia right? And Suez has clearly become more expensive now. So which route will Indonesia use into Europe, Gwadar which has no rail connectivity or Chabahar which has rail connectivity? Answer this. It's a simple question about connectivity.

The more you post, the more I realize you're a troll pretending to discuss.

If you read this post now you will understand what I have been talking about. So go back to your previous posts and look at who the troll is now. I didn't bring up Pak-China economic cooperation.

Well when the cargo comes in, the traders will buy new trucks won't they?

Traders are going to be pragmatic about the situation obviously. Seriously...it seems you're a child because I have to dumb down everything for you.

I have been dumbing the whole thing down for others including you here. Why will companies wait for traders to buy new trucks, when the Iranian govt is offering trains that's already been paid for? The Iranian network has already been built. And trains are cheaper than trucks.

Notice that I have not dismissed Pak-China trade or even China specific trade like oil from ME. What I have dismissed is global trade through CPEC.

And neither do you. So to prove that you aren't a troll, I want detailed answers to the questions directed to me with sources backing them up - not just a bunch of links. I don't want your opinions, because frankly, your words are worth wiping my *** on.

Come back again once you have the answers to the above. Until then your own words are worth wiping your *** on.

Iranian trade is expected to climb to hundreds of billions of dollars a year, even trillions, $600B a year with China alone over 10 years, so their infrastructure is also getting a major overhaul, which could go into hundreds of billions. That means Gwadar will simply offer no competition to Chabahar. Other countries will obviously benefit from superior Iranian infrastructure over Gwadar. That's it.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Average speeds are to increase from 25-40Kmph today to 60-100Kmph for freight. Plus increased cargo carrying capacity by each train, roughly doubled.



I don't. Other people like to bring up off topic stuff. I never had any intention of discussion CPEC and its energy projects or passenger rail projects. My main point of contention has still not changed, connectivity through Pak vs connectivity through Iran for trade.



Then let's only discuss connectivity because that's the only thing I really want to discuss. We won't be all over the place if you don't bring in Pak-China trade.



I did, but only in terms of connectivity and what Pak's offering for connectivity through their land for other countries.



So you understand a bit. Now you can remove the insults and stick to the topic.

I wasn't talking about Indonesia trading with China, but with Europe. A Shanghai route is now pointless for Indonesia right? And Suez has clearly become more expensive now. So which route will Indonesia use into Europe, Gwadar which has no rail connectivity or Chabahar which has rail connectivity? Answer this. It's a simple question about connectivity.



If you read this post now you will understand what I have been talking about. So go back to your previous posts and look at who the troll is now. I didn't bring up Pak-China economic cooperation.



I have been dumbing the whole thing down for others including you here. Why will companies wait for traders to buy new trucks, when the Iranian govt is offering trains that's already been paid for? The Iranian network has already been built. And trains are cheaper than trucks.

Notice that I have not dismissed Pak-China trade or even China specific trade like oil from ME. What I have dismissed is global trade through CPEC.



Come back again once you have the answers to the above. Until then your own words are worth wiping your *** on.

Iranian trade is expected to climb to hundreds of billions of dollars a year, even trillions, $600B a year with China alone over 10 years, so their infrastructure is also getting a major overhaul, which could go into hundreds of billions. That means Gwadar will simply offer no competition to Chabahar. Other countries will obviously benefit from superior Iranian infrastructure over Gwadar. That's it.

What happens if the Americans re-impose sanctions on Iran again?

 

[randomradio]

What happens if the Americans re-impose sanctions on Iran again?

Nothing much will happen. It's just transit trade. The countries will work a system out like India did.

For India, it won't do anything, not just transit trade, but even bilateral trade. India did not back the sanctions, so many Indian companies had a monopoly in the Iranian market.
http://in.reuters.com/article/iran-nuclear-india-idINKCN0PJ05O20150709
In fact, Indian exports to Iran doubled during sanctions. And these companies sold at premium rates since the Iranians had no choice.

Some companies will stop trade with Iran and some won't during sanctions. We had a system where we buy Iranian oil in rupees for 45% of the invoice, and they would use those rupees to buy Indian goods. As India's financial clout grows, better systems will come in place.

If you talk about sanctions, then Pak should be more worried about future sanctions than Iran. Iran is safe from sanctions for many years.

Shall we get back to transit trade?

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Nothing much will happen. It's just transit trade. The countries will work a system out like India did.

For India, it won't do anything, not just transit trade, but even bilateral trade. India did not back the sanctions, so many Indian companies had a monopoly in the Iranian market.
http://in.reuters.com/article/iran-nuclear-india-idINKCN0PJ05O20150709
In fact, Indian exports to Iran doubled during sanctions. And these companies sold at premium rates since the Iranians had no choice.

Some companies will stop trade with Iran and some won't during sanctions. We had a system where we buy Iranian oil in rupees for 45% of the invoice, and they would use those rupees to buy Indian goods. As India's financial clout grows, better systems will come in place.

If you talk about sanctions, then Pak should be more worried about future sanctions than Iran. Iran is safe from sanctions for many years.

Shall we get back to transit trade?

That's the point. CPEC Is not just a transit route. In fact the transit part of CPEC is a small but consequential part. The main and true focus of CPEC is the huge infrastructure and energy projects along the route and all over Pakistan. That is evidently now starting to happen as per my confirmation on the ground from my recent trip to Pakistan last month.

 

[GURU DUTT]

That's the point. CPEC Is not just a transit route. In fact the transit part of CPEC is a small but consequential part. The main and true focus of CPEC is the huge infrastructure and energy projects along the route and all over Pakistan. That is evidently now starting to happen as per my confirmation on the ground from my recent trip to Pakistan last month.

well dont you have better than india road infra already ? as many PDF members often say here ?

as for those infra development well they will have only chinese engineers and chinese companies only who gonna develop it how pakistan and its industry gonna cope witbetter than pakistani quality and very low price chinese products

 

[randomradio]

That's the point. CPEC Is not just a transit route. In fact the transit part of CPEC is a small but consequential part. The main and true focus of CPEC is the huge infrastructure and energy projects along the route and all over Pakistan. That is evidently now starting to happen as per my confirmation on the ground from my recent trip to Pakistan last month.

An 'expert' claimed that Chabahar is incapable of competing with Gwadar. I just want to squash that claim. And then make a new claim saying it is Gwadar that cannot compete with Chabahar.

CPEC may be a big project, but its trade growth trajectory coincides with the speed at which Pak-China trade will grow. So its transport infrastructure will also be similar. Basically CPEC has not even considered a freight corridor which is important for a trade route.

And if you notice I haven't considered either the security situation, the political situation, or natural disasters, like the submersion of the Karakoram Highway during floods.

CPEC Is not just a transit route.

It appears you seem to agree with me.

The discussion started because Arsalan claimed otherwise, that CPEC is already a transit route.

v9s jumped in with CPEC, which is irrelevant to the discussion.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

well dont you have better than india road infra already ? as many PDF members often say here ?

as for those infra development well they will have only chinese engineers and chinese companies only who gonna develop it how pakistan and its industry gonna cope witbetter than pakistani quality and very low price chinese products

The Chinese can help our infrastructure reach their and European standards. That is the ultimate aim of CPEC.

Chinese personnel, assistance and expertise has already helped local industries and businesses improve their capabilities and performance. We want to build on this and reach world class standards.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Like you have just assumed India won't place trade hurdles for goods passing through Gilgit-Baltistan. Why is that?

India will poke its nose here and there tryign to internationalize its claim over GB but she cant do anything more .Their principle stance on this is pretty weak as they woke up too late and were nowhere to be seen on this when China was building KKH back in the 60s.

Those are not high speed freight corridors.

Pakistan is still working towards a freight corridor. And 170 locomotives is too less for transit trade.
.

So what if they are not high speed for now they will be in next three years..And 170 plus the upgraded existing ones are enough to start off. With time new ones will be inducted on need basis.. Your pseudo-scholar verdicts are outright amusing.

China benefits from that trade. Eastern China is not dependent on trade from Pakistan anyway since the main source of trade will be Central Asia and Europe, that's where most of Beijing's investment is going, over $150B in the first phase.

main source of trade will be Central Asia and Europe?? WILL be?? dear nostradamus have you checked up on the shortest routes.In case of CPEC China only needs to deal with one country unlike a longer route way in north.The recent plunge in oil prices has made Russia and CARs hold back the supply while China is in a buyer's market. Unlike Russia and CARs, abundant energy supplies are available from other sources, such as LNG from Qatar and crude oil from African nations, Iran and Saudia Arabia and thats where CPEC comes in the picture.
http://nation.com.pk/national/13-Jun-2016/china-to-build-mega-oil-pipeline-from-gwadar-to-kashgar China is getting ready to shift around 17 percent of its oil import to Gwadar-Kashgar oil pipeline by 2021 and no we dont need freight corridor for that since you think its all about a rail.NO its not.. keep reading..

China has very tactfully developed Turkmanistan-China pipeline and working on the East-Siberia one this will give them the purchase power in future and lesser dependency on a single carrier.I must say as an Indian you should worry for yourself where are you heading in this regional pipeline game.By spoiling your relations with Pakistan over Kashmir you have already lost your shortest route to CARs and now you are developing this road network in Iran which Pakistan will use to reach Turkey in future.. thankyou.

And there is already a rail link between Tehran and China operational right now.
That's a 15 year head start over Pakistan. Another advantage is China, Iran and Europe use the same rail gauge, which means you don't need to transfer goods to another train. Pakistan doesn't.

You are again circling around rail corridor.. The rail link you are talking about takes 2 weeks, 10,000 kms and transit through three countries(transit fee+politics) before it touches eastern end of CHina . That doesnt fulfill business case for many when you have a shorter road route from gwadar to kashgar through ONLY Pakistan just 2000 km covered in a few days.We are connecting Gwadar with Chahbahar and will send all the trade for Europe through Iran and Turkey.

Besides the Author is arguing over gwadar/chabahar .What will a good road network and freight corridor give you if you cant have big vessels offload enough containers at a port (chahbahar) which is not a deep sea port as we know it.

There is a heaven and earth difference between Iran and Pakistan with respect to China when it comes to trade. It's so weird that you guys can't see it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ee-to-expand-trade-to-600-billion-in-a-decade

Look at the biggest problems you have... Where is the infrastructure for freight transport? Where is the rail link between China and Pak? How are you going to deal with competition from Iran who are planning to expand trade with China to $600B many years before a China-Pak rail link is built? What are the capacities of these rail links when built? What access does Pak have to Central Asia? How will Pak conduct direct trade with Europe over land?

1) If Iran wants a corridor with China , i wish them good luck . Its just that the transit fees would be several times high on their route considering the number of countries involved (Turkmenistan,Uzbekistan,Kazakhistan,Russia) as compared to sending the same through Pakistan.The more countries you involve the more political trouble you are asking for while China-Pak corridor gets China in one go straight into Arabia sea though I personally strongly support China should help Iran in building Chabahar instead of India and Pakistan and Iran should link these ports by train and ferry service.What Chinese president is signing for now is a MOU its future lies in consistent policies of Tehran..

2)Pakistan has many populous cities along CPEC.. So its just not a link but linking major cities thus enhancing national/international consumption, production, factories etc along route...the proposed area of Iran turkmanistan kazakhistan uzbekistan is barren... it doesn't include even tehran..plus Iran is not a Grand market(because of the declining population) for chinese goods unlike Pakistan ..
3)Not to mention, If China goes through Afghanistan, it'll be FAR more dangerous for them. At least Pakistan is cleaning up the mess in it's country (it's slow, but it is happening), Afghanistan can't say the same.
4) Lastly people tend to forget that China is not investing in Pakistan just to reach Gwadar but there are bigger prospects they see, they want the Indian hegemony checked in the region and for that they are investing in Pakistan big time.Pakistan also serves as a buffer state for China to stop India from developing regional connectivity (something essential to expand an economy) of routes and pipelines towards Central Asia and Iran
5)The deal between Iran and China is for the next 10 to 25 years. Pakistan is set to out pace Iran's economy within the next 35 years, and go way beyond it it in the next 50 to 60 years.Pakistan is projected as 12th biggest economy by 2040s if things go as planned. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/the-economy/assets/world-in-2050-february-2015.pdf

 

[randomradio]

The rail link you are talking about takes 2 weeks, 10,000 kms and transit through three contries(transit fee+politics) before it touches eastern end of CHina .

You are talking about the Tehran to Yiwu link. Yiwu is all the way near Shanghai. So is it fine to compare a non-existent rail link between Pak and China versus a rail link that traverses the continent from Tehran to Yiwu?

Regardless, more reason to believe a European link through Pak is impossible.

By spoiling your relations with Pakistan you have already lost your shortest route to CARs and now you are developing this road network in Iran which we will use to reach Turkey in future.. thankyou.

We haven't lost anything. India is part of the NSTC corridor which requires Iran. NSTC has a road, rail and a water link.

We needed an open road route from Pak into Afghanistan, but Pakistan never allowed it, so your assertion is irrelevant. That's why Chabahar was necessary. Regardless, India-Iran and India-Afghan trade are irrelevant to the discussion.

Besides the Author is arguing over gwadar/chabahar .What will a good road network and freight corridor give you if you cant have big vessels offload enough containers at a port (chahbahar) which is not a deep sea port as we know it.

Chabahar will be a deep sea port in 18 months. It can still handle other ships.

China is getting ready to shift around 17 percent of its oil import to Gwadar-Kashgar oil pipeline by 2021 and no we dont need freight corrIdor for that since you think its all about a rail.

Irrelevant, and I have not disputed it.

So what if they are not high speed for now they will be in next three years..And 170 plus the upgraded existing ones are enough to start off. With time new ones will be inducted on need basis.. Your pseudo-scholar verdicts are outright amusing.

You appear to be clueless about what I am referring to. Remove Pak-China trade from the discussion, remove oil from the discussion, both are irrelevant to what I am talking about.

5)The deal between Iran and China is for the next 10 to 25 years. Pakistan is set to out pace Iran's economy within the next 35 years, and completely dwarf Iran's economy within the next 50 to 60 years. If there is one thing the Chinese are good at, it's looking ahead.Pakistan is projected as 12th biggest economy by 2040s if things go as planned. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/the-economy/assets/world-in-2050-february-2015.pdf

Irrelevant to the discussion. The time periods are too far away.

We are connecting Gwadar with Chahbahar and will send all the trade for Europe through Iran and Turkey.

Good. The only real relevant point in your entire post. This is what I had also claimed, that even Pakistan will have to depend on Iran to get to Europe.

The author claims Iran will have to depend on Gwadar, but I claimed that was wrong and that Gwadar will have to depend on Chabahar for any sort of trade with Europe. And this applies to not just Pakistan, but to all other countries that want to use the NSTC or the Silk Road. Which will make Iran the hub of trade for the other countries and not Pakistan.

So Pakistan, India and many other countries will have to use the road/rail links from Iran into Central Asia and Europe. Thereby the importance of Chabahar is far greater than Gwadar. You have inadvertently helped my point.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Funny, anything you dont have an answer to is IRRELEVANT .

You are talking about the Tehran to Yiwu link. Yiwu is all the way near Shanghai. So is it fine to compare a non-existent rail link between Pak and China versus a rail link that traverses the continent from Tehran to Yiwu?
Regardless, more reason to believe a European link through Pak is impossible.

Missing the point completely. Have you seen the map?The Southern corridor you are talking about is a good alternate but northern corridor is much shorter for China unless the festination Turkey .
The rail link between kashgar and Havelian is being worked on as we speak. The main purpose of widening of KKH was to accommodate a rail link, and that step is already done.15-30 years maybe for an Indian company.Chinese have the capability to pull up such feats in record times.Once this link is done it will patch up to the norther corridor and be used for Europe .Whereas Iran and Turkey would be traversed for the Southern corridor so we have access to both we already have the road access and that easily overcomes the trade throughput for now by the time it increments we will have the rail link

.Also you are wrong when you said there are no guage breaks in this Iran China rail link.
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/freight/single-view/view/china-iran-container-train.htmlbreak

Chabahar will be a deep sea port in 18 months. It can still handle other ships.

Again missing the point, what you are trying to achieve is a man-made deep sea port or in other words an artificial deep harbor ...Dredging coast beds costs several billion dollars a channel for a vessel with 14 meter drought not to forget the huge yearly maintenance costs that comes with it. Its pron to storm waves that swells the harbor which is btw seasonal but still a hindrance.Once you get more vessels queued up waiting outside for the channel to be free you will be dredging more channels which comes with the complexity and capital in billions.The port also expands over land and thats where the true limitation comes in.How much expansion Chahbahar can take will be proven ? time will be the better judge.
.
Now compare that with a natural deep sea port where vessels can come in without any guidance and no dredging, no breakwaters is needed and the best thing is no ecological hazard.

Im actually done worth your calling my stuff irrelevant so im not responding anymore till i get complete answers to my posts.

 

[randomradio]

Funny, anything you dont have an answer to is IRRELEVANT .

All the irrelevant stuff you have posted, I already accept most of it, I think all of it in fact.

Missing the point completely. Have you seen the map?The Southern corridor you are talking about is a good alternate but northern corridor is much shorter for China unless the festination Turkey .
The rail link between kashgar and Havelian is being worked on as we speak. The main purpose of widening of KKH was to accommodate a rail link, and that step is already done.15-30 years maybe for an Indian company.Chinese have the capability to pull up such feats in record times.Once this link is done it will patch up to the norther corridor and be used for Europe .Whereas Iran and Turkey would be traversed for the Southern corridor so we have access to both we already have the road access and that easily overcomes the trade throughput for now by the time it increments we will have the rail link

Let's see when they start building the rail link shall we? And then let's look at the capacity after.

.Also you are wrong when you said there are no guage breaks in this Iran China rail link.
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/freight/single-view/view/china-iran-container-train.htmlbreak

Link's broken.

Again missing the point, what you are trying to achieve is a man-made deep sea port or in other words an artificial deep harbor ...Dredging coast beds costs several billion dollars a channel for a vessel with 14 meter drought not to forget the huge yearly maintenance costs that comes with it. Its pron to storm waves that swells the harbor which is btw seasonal but still a hindrance.Once you get more vessels queued up waiting outside for the channel to be free you will be dredging more channels which comes with the complexity and capital in billions.The port also expands over land and thats where the true limitation comes in.How much expansion Chahbahar can take will be proven ? time will be the better judge.
.
Now compare that with a natural deep sea port where vessels can come in without any guidance and no dredging, no breakwaters is needed and the best thing is no ecological hazard.

Im actually done worth your calling my stuff irrelevant so im not responding anymore till i get complete answers to my posts.

Again this is irrelevant because man made or not, regardless of what it costs, both Chabahar and Gwadar can handle 2 ships of 250k DWT. All a company cares about is whether their ships can berth at the port and the fees are cheaper.

All I am asking is what sort of advantage a transit through Pak has over Iran into Europe. Imho, there is none.

http://www.firstpost.com/business/c...rves-credit-for-signing-the-deal-2794106.html

"The distance between Kandla and the Chabahar port is less than the distance between New Delhi and Mumbai, and so what this agreement does is to enable us quick movement of goods first to Iran and then onwards to Afghanistan and Russia through a new rail and road link," Gadkari was quoted as saying in a PTI report.

"The Chabahar Port will be a game changer for India because it will provide connectivity to Afghanistan, Iran and Eurasia, strategically outflanking an intransigent Islamabad. It is also a counter to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)," says this report in The Hindustan Times.