Indonesia Defence Forum

[Ruhnama]

Not directly related to us but... for reference regarding CAATSA

https://twitter.com/x/status/1338546737884098560

View attachment 696507

a brief review of the document :
- ...for knowingly engaging in a significant transaction... :
What counts as a significant transaction? is it contract value? if so what's the limit? USD 10 mil / 100 mil /1 B? or is it the strategic value of the arms (LoRAD, FIghter jets, etc) ? I'm wondering if we can avoid CAATSA when buying less valuable / less strategic arms like APCs, IFVs, artillery pieces, light arms, etc... Afterall our Marines are really fond of their Russian gears, and was planning on getting more BMP-3Fs, BT-3Fs... Also whether we can do modernization / upgrade of existing arms (ex Flanker fleet).

- ...imposing sanctions on the Republic of Turkey's Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB)... :
What is this SSB actually? Is it a government branch of Turkey? Is it a holding company of defense industries? a SOE? a private defense firm or company? an export-import company? if it turns out to be just a defense or export-import firm, then perhaps one can just create a shell company headed by someone of little significance and tasked to do all the importings from Russia...

- ... The sanctions include a ban on all US export licenses and authorizations to SSB, and an asset freeze and visa restrictions to SSB's president and other officers... :
The sanctions seems to be very limited in scope, only to SSB, it's president and officers... no trade sanctions, banking/financial sanctions, arms embargo , etc... So if it's someone that has no assets in the US, nor travels to the US, or have any business links in the US, then the sanctions will not affect that person much right..?

Like KKIP in here SSB in english Presidency of Defence Industries

Maybe affactes the SSB itself?
So if turks is our nation maybe affected kkip

 

[Lord Of Gondor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1339631180031938561

 

[Indos]

 

[Indos]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1335578995962728450

 

[Indos]

Night Patrol

 

[Indos]

Indonesian Marine Force

https://twitter.com/x/status/1338294049342586880

 

[Whizzack]

Night Patrol

For a so called "hangar queen" this squadron sure seems to fly rather frequently...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A preview of things to come...?

The US can no longer turn a blind eye to abuses in Papua

The Biden administration has to reconsider support for the Indonesian military until it addresses abuse of civilians.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Whizzack]

PAL Completes the Last Block Loading of the Indonesian Navy Hospital Ship

18 Desember 2020


Mast installation in progress (photo : PAL)

PTPAL Indonesia's Hospital Ship (BRS) Construction Progress has reached 82%
Progres Pembangunan Kapal Bantu Rumah Sakit (BRS) PTPAL Indonesia telah mencapai 82 %
Pembangunan kapal Bantu Rumah Sakit (BRS) berjalan sesuai on schedule. Komitmen tersebut ditunjukkan dengan telah dilaksanakan proses loading block tiang agung (Foremast) yang menjadi block loading terakhir pada bangunan atas Kapal BRS.

Proses loading block dengan total 121 block diselesaikan tepat waktu dan dilakukan dengan accuracy control yang tinggi oleh Insan PAL untuk menghasilkan produk yang tepat mutu.

Direncanakan pada akhir Desember 2020, Kapal Bantu Rumah Sakit (BRS) akan melaksanakan launching ceremony.

(PAL)

 

[182]

Glass Cockpit New Helicopter Bell 412 EPI TNI-AD

Gatling Gun

credit to bengpuspenerbad10

 

[Indos]

For a so called "hangar queen" this squadron sure seems to fly rather frequently...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A preview of things to come...?

The US can no longer turn a blind eye to abuses in Papua

The Biden administration has to reconsider support for the Indonesian military until it addresses abuse of civilians.

www.aljazeera.com

Yup those Sukhoi are one of our back bone fighters, no doubt about it and it can be seen by the fact that almost if not all black flights were getting caught by those Sukhois instead of F 16. So it speaks a lot that Indonesia needs long range fighter and that is why KFX/IFX are double engine and can also carry 2 fuel tanks. Even without 2 additional fuel tanks, KFX/IFX is designed to fly farther than F 16 and F 35.

I doubt Jokowi will let Prabowo to get 20 billion USD loan since our debt to GDP ratio will reach 40 % in 2021 due to huge borrowing to finance those economic stimulus for both 2020 and 2021 period. Instead of adding more loan, I think government will try to lower that ratio. Furthermore, since defense ministry has already got second biggest spending after infrastructure ministry (PUPR), so I doubt they will get those 20 billion USD loan.

As I said we dont have any option beside trying to be independence in defense procurement. Buying Russian fighters seem not viable anymore after that CATSAA from USA and looking to China is also not our option since they are our potential adversary in SCS. In the other hand, USA has a history to impose sanction as we had experienced for 10 years during 1995-2005 period and Today we see Turkey, one of NATO member, gets sanction intended to curb their defense industry growth.

We need to prepare and because of that our procurement should be designed very pro our defense industry. My suggestion is to delay fighter procurement until KFX/IFX program reach its mass production stage in 2026 inshaAllah. Some defense budget should be used for paying our financial obligation on the program and also set aside 5 % of our defense budget for R&D program in defense sector.

Of course KFX/IFX program still relies on US engine but the program is the best step for Indonesia to start becoming more independent in its fighter need. Nothing can be achieved over night, we must start somewhere or being risk getting dependent to other powerful countries forever.

Nation with short sight has been proven to become less developed than nation with long sight and ready to be patience and sacrifice to achieve their long term goals. Indonesia as fourth most populous nation with blessing from Allah with its rich natural resources,vast land and sea, and is located in a strategic location, adding it with the fact that we have become 7 largest economy in the world (PPP basis), should aim big.

It is like when my oldest brother wife sold her brand new car which was given by her father when she married my brother and use it for business in property sector (building and selling homes). She was still in early 20's at that time and just completed her bachelor degree. Instead of enjoying the car, she sacrifices it for the sake of making something more productive that later can bring her more money. It turn out she can make a big house in Jakarta from her business while my brother still worked as civil servant doctor in a state hospital at that time.

 

[Whizzack]

Glass Cockpit New Helicopter Bell 412 EPI TNI-AD
View attachment 697505
Gatling Gun
View attachment 697507

credit to bengpuspenerbad10

Definitely not your Daddy's Huey..!
Is this why we are still happy using these choppers instead of getting Blackhawks?

 

[Indos]

Indonesia parliament members visit Turkey

Indonesia Commission 1 (Defense Related matter) Chairmant, Meutia Hafid with Turkey Defense Industry President, Prof Ismail Demir.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1332583646377762817

 

[Lasa-X]

Yup those Sukhoi are one of our back bone fighters, no doubt about it and it can be seen by the fact that almost if not all black flights were getting caught by those Sukhois instead of F 16. So it speaks a lot that Indonesia needs long range fighter and that is why KFX/IFX are double engine and can also carry 2 fuel tanks. Even without 2 additional fuel tanks, KFX/IFX is designed to fly farther than F 16 and F 35.

I doubt Jokowi will let Prabowo to get 20 billion USD loan since our debt to GDP ratio will reach 40 % in 2021 due to huge borrowing to finance those economic stimulus for both 2020 and 2021 period. Instead of adding more loan, I think government will try to lower that ratio. Furthermore, since defense ministry has already got second biggest spending after infrastructure ministry (PUPR), so I doubt they will get those 20 billion USD loan.

As I said we dont have any option beside trying to be independence in defense procurement. Buying Russian fighters seem not viable anymore after that CATSAA from USA and looking to China is also not our option since they are our potential adversary in SCS. In the other hand, USA has a history to impose sanction as we had experienced for 10 years during 1995-2005 period and Today we see Turkey, one of NATO member, gets sanction intended to curb their defense industry growth.

We need to prepare and because of that our procurement should be designed very pro our defense industry. My suggestion is to delay fighter procurement until KFX/IFX program reach its mass production stage in 2026 inshaAllah. Some defense budget should be used for paying our financial obligation on the program and also set aside 5 % of our defense budget for R&D program in defense sector.

Of course KFX/IFX program still relies on US engine but the program is the best step for Indonesia to start becoming more independent in its fighter need. Nothing can be achieved over night, we must start somewhere or being risk getting dependent to other powerful countries forever.

Nation with short sight has been proven to become less developed than nation with long sight and ready to be patience and sacrifice to achieve their long term goals. Indonesia as fourth most populous nation with blessing from Allah with its rich natural resources,vast land and sea, and is located in a strategic location, adding it with the fact that we have become 7 largest economy in the world (PPP basis), should aim big.

It is like when my oldest brother wife sold her brand new car which was given by her father when she married my brother and use it for business in property sector (building and selling homes). She was still in early 20's at that time and just completed her bachelor degree. Instead of enjoying the car, she sacrifices it for the sake of making something more productive that later can bring her more money. It turn out she can make a big house in Jakarta from her business while my brother still worked as civil servant doctor in a state hospital at that time.

Why delay fighter procurement until at least 2026? You do realise sku 14 has to borrow flankers from sku 11 right?
You do know that MEF still the obligation to fill by Dephan?

And by 2026, it won't suddently go directly mass production. It will be initial production first and South Korea will get them. Indonesia? Wait in the line after that. So it will be at least 2028 before it come to TNI AU hanggar. 8 more years at least.

Btw, having IFX doesn't mean you will independently free all you can use. Engines, avionics and weapon systems are from other countries.

So are you going to wait for at least 8 years to get some so-called 'independent' fighter while at the same time Hawk 100/200 fleets need to replace, sku 14 needs their new fighters, and make new squadrons at the same time? I haven't put the decrease of SDM to handle the aircraft between those gap years.

 

[Indos]

Why delay fighter procurement until at least 2026? You do realise sku 14 has to borrow flankers from sku 11 right?
You do know that MEF still the obligation to fill by Dephan?

Why not delay the procurement ? Are we at war at the moment or are we going to be at war 6 years from now ? Do you think fishing right dispute in North Natuna sea with China will lead to war ??? Do you think China will risk their trading, investment with Indonesia and ASEAN over that small dispute ? Not to mention both US and China want to get Indonesia into their side or at least stay neutral due to their rivalry and Indonesia geopolitical status as regional power and the most influential member in ASEAN if not de-facto leader (as stated by US foreign ministry).

MEF is not a holy book. Do you think with current economic condition we also want to complete that MEF which is made by previous administration ? The target is too ambitious and we should try to complete it step by step by considering both our economic condition and long term defense industry goals/needs.

Those squadron 14 has already gotten 3 flankers and we also have had flankers simulator so they can still practice until new planes are coming. Maybe better to wait until CATSAA doesnt effect anymore and buy Su 35 since we need heavy fighter that can do Naval attack with Brahmos because our potential dispute is in the sea. That will be inline with the current Flanker present and we also can pay half amount of the contract figure using our commodity that can help the economy as well.

While waiting for the completion of KFX/IFX program (inshaAllah), we can have more focus on Navy and Army needs in equipment that has meaningful local defense industry contribution like frigates/OPV/submarine/APC/medium tank/ammunition/rockets/tactical vehicles/ others.

For Airforce better to spend on more AMRAMM and Sidewinder with meaningful amount of deal so that we can get substantive TOT that can be useful for our indigenous missile program. Any way our AMRAAM and Sidewinder are too few and with the coming of NASAMS system the number become ridiculously small, why do we need to buy more fighter if we dont have enough ammunition to even support our current fighter planes in case small conflict happen in Ambalat block ?

And by 2026, it won't suddently go directly mass production. It will be initial production first and South Korea will get them. Indonesia? Wait in the line after that. So it will be at least 2028 before it come to TNI AU hanggar. 8 more years at least.

Of course there will be initial production first but that stage is still part of mass production stage. How do you know that we are going to wait in the line ? Indonesian production engineers are also contributing and learning the manufacturing of those planned 6 prototype where the first one is currently being manufactured.

One of the prototype will also be produced in Indonesia with the help of the Korean which is based on work shared deal that have already been agreed in 2015. I assumed the initial production stage will be both conducted by Korean and Indonesia in the same time since both parties are involved in making those 6 planned prototypes. I have to make it clear here since some maybe forget that KFX/IFX will be produced both in KAI Korea and PT Dirgantara Indonesia facility (with different work share due to different investment contribution (80% vs 20 %).

Well even 8 more years is not really that long and shouldnt become the problem as we have already had several capable fighter squadrons that are enough for the next 10 years. We had some serious dispute before with Malaysia but Malaysia also faces delay with their MRCA program and none of our neighbor actually are brave enough to make any conflict with Indonesia as we can be very powerful if we want, considering to our economy and population.

Btw, having IFX doesn't mean you will independently free all you can use. Engines, avionics and weapon systems are from other countries.

You seem to have a comprehension problem and dont see the main point that I try to bring at my previous comment. Did I say "nothing can be achieve overnight" and "we should start some where" ??? I also have mentioned what you stated above if you read my previous explanation thoroughly.

Not to mention other comment that I made that we need to spare 5 % of defense budget for R&D program and prefer our local defense industry in our procurement process so that they can improve their sophistication in the future and hopefully we can achieve total independency like China some where in the future inshaAllah. This is what I mean to aim big.

So are you going to wait for at least 8 years to get some so-called 'independent' fighter while at the same time Hawk 100/200 fleets need to replace, sku 14 needs their new fighters, and make new squadrons at the same time? I haven't put the decrease of SDM to handle the aircraft between those gap years.

Yes, it is better to wait for the next 6-8 years rather than the money is spent on imported fighters and lost KFX/IFX program forever. Do you think we have huge financial capability at the moment ? Do you think this Jokowi administration who are stingy on R&D program and even dont have money to spend on N 245 program which only needs 300 million USD to complete its development will keep spending money on KFX/IFX program ( 2 bilion USD ) after we use around 3-5 billion USD to buy imported fighter ?? Even he has delayed paying our financial contribution for the program since 2017 (just paid again once in early 2019)

Look, this is our last chance to enter fighter development program. If we lost this program I dont think there will be any advance country who will offer us similar program in the future. Maybe Turkey, but it will be after 2040 with their new program since they have already had TFX program at the moment and this if ever happen will delay our progress for more than 2 decades in acquiring capability on fighter development.

Or do we want to make our own 5 generation fighter alone and spend around 10 billion USD (140 trillion Rupiah) with the possibility to only be bought by ourselves (will be very expensive per plane) since other advanced country with better experience and capability must be able to make much superior fighter than us ? Do you think we will also get helped by Lockheed Martin with our new fighter project and get at least 20 technologies that they have given to KFX/IFX program ?

Any way buying F 35 also needs another 8 years for first delivery alone and other new fighter also need maybe 4-8 years on their delivery. Not much different.

Hawk 100/200 planes were delivered in 1998-early 2000. Not really too old since our F 16 planes that were delivered in 1989-1990 are still being operated and even after 30 years of operation are now being upgraded and refurbished. Indonesia has also been able to do overhaul on Hawk independently. Any way recent decision made by Mindef also suggests that our Hawk are likely to be refurbished or get their operational life prolonged a bit (until KFX/IFX planes can replace them all inshaAllah ).

 

[Lasa-X]

Why not delay the procurement ? Are we at war at the moment or are we going to be at war 6 years from now ? Do you think fishing right dispute in North Natuna sea with China will lead to war ??? Do you think China will risk their trading, investment with Indonesia and ASEAN over that small dispute ? Not to mention both US and China want to get Indonesia into their side or at least stay neutral due to their rivalry and Indonesia geopolitical status as regional power and the most influential member in ASEAN if not de-facto leader (as stated by US foreign ministry).

MEF is not a holy book. Do you think with current economic condition we also want to complete that MEF which is made by previous administration ? The target is too ambitious and we should try to complete it step by step by considering both our economic condition and long term defense industry goals/needs.

Those squadron 14 has already gotten 3 flankers and we also have had flankers simulator so they can still practice until new planes are coming. Maybe better to wait until CATSAA doesnt effect anymore and buy Su 35 since we need heavy fighter that can do Naval attack with Brahmos because our potential dispute is in the sea. That will be inline with the current Flanker present and we also can pay half amount of the contract figure using our commodity that can help the economy as well.

While waiting for the completion of KFX/IFX program (inshaAllah), we can have more focus on Navy and Army needs in equipment that has meaningful local defense industry contribution like frigates/OPV/submarine/APC/medium tank/ammunition/rockets/tactical vehicles/ others.

For Airforce better to spend on more AMRAMM and Sidewinder with meaningful amount of deal so that we can get substantive TOT that can be useful for our indigenous missile program. Any way our AMRAAM and Sidewinder are too few and with the coming of NASAMS system the number become ridiculously small, why do we need to buy more fighter if we dont have enough ammunition to even support our current fighter planes in case small conflict happen in Ambalat block ?



Of course there will be initial production first but that stage is still part of mass production stage. How do you know that we are going to wait in the line ? Indonesian production engineers are also contributing and learning the manufacturing of those planned 6 prototype where the first one is currently being manufactured.

One of the prototype will also be produced in Indonesia with the help of the Korean which is based on work shared deal that have already been agreed in 2015. I assumed the initial production stage will be both conducted by Korean and Indonesia in the same time since both parties are involved in making those 6 planned prototypes. I have to make it clear here since some maybe forget that KFX/IFX will be produced both in KAI Korea and PT Dirgantara Indonesia facility (with different work share due to different investment contribution (80% vs 20 %).

Well even 8 more years is not really that long and shouldnt become the problem as we have already had several capable fighter squadrons that are enough for the next 10 years. We had some serious dispute before with Malaysia but Malaysia also faces delay with their MRCA program and none of our neighbor actually are brave enough to make any conflict with Indonesia as we can be very powerful if we want, considering to our economy and population.



You seem to have a comprehension problem and dont see the main point that I try to bring at my previous comment. Did I say "nothing can be achieve overnight" and "we should start some where" ??? I also have mentioned what you stated above if you read my previous explanation thoroughly.

Not to mention other comment that I made that we need to spare 5 % of defense budget for R&D program and prefer our local defense industry in our procurement process so that they can improve their sophistication in the future and hopefully we can achieve total independency like China some where in the future inshaAllah. This is what I mean to aim big.



Yes, it is better to wait for the next 6-8 years rather than the money is spent on imported fighters and lost KFX/IFX program forever. Do you think we have huge financial capability at the moment ? Do you think this Jokowi administration who are stingy on R&D program and even dont have money to spend on N 245 program which only needs 300 million USD to complete its development will keep spending money on KFX/IFX program ( 2 bilion USD ) after we use around 3-5 billion USD to buy imported fighter ?? Even he has delayed paying our financial contribution for the program since 2017 (just paid again once in early 2019)

Look, this is our last chance to enter fighter development program. If we lost this program I dont think there will be any advance country who will offer us similar program in the future. Maybe Turkey, but it will be after 2040 with their new program since they have already had TFX program at the moment and this if ever happen will delay our progress for more than 2 decades in acquiring capability on fighter development.

Or do we want to make our own 5 generation fighter alone and spend around 10 billion USD (140 trillion Rupiah) with the possibility to only be bought by ourselves (will be very expensive per plane) since other advanced country with better experience and capability must be able to make much superior fighter than us ? Do you think we will also get helped by Lockheed Martin with our new fighter project and get at least 20 technologies that they have given to KFX/IFX program ?

Any way buying F 35 also needs another 8 years for first delivery alone and other new fighter also need maybe 4-8 years on their delivery. Not much different.

Hawk 100/200 planes were delivered in 1998-early 2000. Not really too old since our F 16 planes that were delivered in 1989-1990 are still being operated and even after 30 years of operation are now being upgraded and refurbished. Indonesia has also been able to do overhaul on Hawk independently. Any way recent decision made by Mindef also suggests that our Hawk are likely to be refurbished or get their operational life prolonged a bit (until KFX/IFX planes can replace them all inshaAllah ).

Those requirements is not for war preparation. It is just to replace the old ones. And no, 3-4 unit flankers (borrowed, not bought) + simulator are not enough to fill a fighter squadron. That sims can't fly for a real life missions. If it's OK, then a good news. What bother join in KFX project? Just buy 3-4 units of them later and buy some simulators, you get the whole squadron. Cheap solution for cash strapped air force hehe.

so no, several capable squadrons that you said, are not enough for today and future challenges. And that squadrons has reduced. Relaying on 30+ units F-16 and 16 units flankers as front line fighters are not enough. And those F-16, only 2 units (until now) that can shoot amraam.

I didn't reject any fighter project. That's great. I don't have anything against it or any of your reasons. But it is not available any soon. And what kind of fighter other that F-35, that will get ready after 8 years?? Average is 3-4 years, sometimes 5years.

Right MEF is not a holly book and again nobody said that. But it is a plan the made step by step to reach the certain capability in the future. Not perfect but still a stepping stone. It needs to be implemented to face the challenges. That was why Sby joined KFX project AND still made MEF that requires more fighters to fill the need.
Please don't think that it's only 8 years. I can't imagine, the fighters that should be required in 2014-2019 (thanks to previous MoD), have to wait again until at least 2026 IF everything run smooth as planned. Including paying our contribution. Otherwise, wait longer? Maybe another 5 years? Or better wait for gen 7 fighter?

You can hold 8, 10 or even 20 years with your theory of few fighters + Sims are enough to make a capable flight (read: squadron). In the end it will face the reality that what a waste of time we have made because of this.