I hope it is not an empty words and lips service, we will see through their action, not long time ago Defense Ministry wanted to buy huge amount of foreign defense equipment through very huge foreign loan that in the end can eliminate whole domestic defense industry since they want to concentrate the acqusation within 2020-2024 where during this time we have to admit domestic industry havent been able to supply sophisticated products like frigates (as OEM), fighter planes, UCAV, and others.
But if we see 2025-2030 time frame it is actually the period where domestic defense industry can come up with sophisticated products as currently we have KF 21 and Black Eagle UCAV program running, possibly unmanned submarine and midget submarine, frigate using our own design or continue with Iver design, cruise missile program running, radar development, sentry gun, balistic missile, PT PAL is trying to master submarine production if Mindef agreed to continue Changbogo program, MLRS and 122 meter rockets is basically ready for mass production and so on.
Prabowo rating is going down
We see Prabowo rating is going down now, at one survey it becomes number two and in other survey it head to head with Anies Baswedan. Not like previous period where he has very strong position ( despite not as strong as Jokowi during 2011-2014). We see this has high relation when a defense analyst brough up his acquisition plan some time ago to the media and media makes many Indonesian know about it
People are smarter Today and the one that will likely determine the course of election result is basically these smart and knowledgeable people. So political leader cannot just feel safe by their captive fanatic followers.....even Islamist voters can change position if they see better candidate that can represent them better like Anies Baswedan and even nationalist leader like Ridwan Kamil is seen as more Islamic than Prabowo.
The key is responsible and nationalist policy
Just see of why Jokowi can become President, it is due to his track records, cleanness, and effective and
responsible and nationalist policy in economy (including industry and defense industry). Bombarding public media with adds due to having huge money will likely not be able to capture votes in Today Indonesia democracy. Even Surya Paloh who owned Metro TV and Media Indonesia cannot do it despite having quite a strong political party. Believing money can win an election in Today Indonesia politics means you are hiring wrong political advisors.
I highlight nationalist here because Indonesian has strong nationalist sentiment compared to other nation. It can be seen with so few Indonesian migrate to other country and change their citizenship. We are so close with Australia (high GDP country) but we are not among top 20 migrants in Australia and Indonesian mingrants workers in many places like Saudi and Malaysia will just work there and will come back if their work assignment complete or their target to get money for their future business endeavor in their village is met. Same with high paid workers.
I even have several family members currently working in Dubai ( high GDP countries) as engineers but they dont change citizenship. My older brother also has worked in US, Australia, Spain as electronic engineer but come back later and raise his family in Indonesia and bring his experience there to develop his own nation. This then translate into politics and we see Megawati policy to sell just one strategic Indonesian state owned company like Indosat make her lost to SBY two times and even until Today many Indonesian still remember that.
While responsible policy is proven to win Presidential election in Indonesia when Jokowi with his cutting oil subsidy and other economically sounds policy can still win over Prabowo two times where Prabowo and Islamis party like Justice Party always come up with populist policy like low electricity bill, low oil price and so on and so on that can damage our economic development in the long run since they can make it happen through huge government subsidy. Just for example, during SBY administration, oil subsidy is 300 trillion Rupiah for just one year fiscal period, it can be better spent for productive program like infrastructure, R&D, education, and others.
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Prabowo Subianto loss much of his support in a very recent survey. These two survey including done by Charta Politica that is seen as quite credible Survey company show Prabowo rating have become number three (Charta Politica/credible) and five (IPO survey/less credible).
This result then is very contras with many suveys conducted before Prabowo comes with his crazy acqusition plan to wrap up 25 years acqusition into just within 2020-2024 period by buying very large foreign defense equipment through foreign loan, which is not only seen as very reckless and dangerous in economic point of view but also will destroy domestic defense industry in the process as well by eliminating their current and future market (including current on going program).
Nb: His plan is first revealed by Ms Connie (Defense Analyst) that get the document from some one who leaked it.
lembaga survei IPO dan Charta Politika merilis survei elektabilitas capres potensial di Pilpres 2024. Hasil Ganjar dan Anies ternyata berbeda di kedua survei.
news.detik.com
Economy and industry development is important for our defense capability
Economy is very important in term of defense as well, as economy grows so naturally defense budget will grow as well. So focusing on the economy and industry is actually inline with our long term goal to have large defense budget in the future with most of it should be absorbed by our domestic defense industry to increase independency and deterrence. Being independent is important as we have experience getting embargoes from both USSR and US (+British). This even goes longer as like the reason of why our Van Speik frigates use Chinese weapon is because US at that time refuse to give us Harpoon. We have to anticipate future event as we dont know what happen in East Timor that prompted the embargo ( Santa Cruz massacre) can happen in Papua as well as human do sometime make mistake.
Within the time frame of 2025-2030 actually many of our domestic industry (particularly state owned ones) are expected to be able to produce many sophisticated weapon platform as OEM. The main lacking for Indonesia defense industry during that period is not on the platform (hardware like frigate and submarine hull and STEALTH fighter airframe and system integration), but on the critical components like electronics and weapon system. We will have more weight to get TOT on critical components if we become the OEM, just like Korean can get many critical components TOT trough KF 21 program like engine (F 414) and others.
TOT (Transfer of Technology)
Some defense analysts saying Indonesia defense industry cannot get substantial TOT or Offset due to their own deficiency to absorb them are actually very misleading. It is foreign defense OEM that reluctant to give us TOT in order to make them keep selling weapon and avoid future rival. Any way who would give you substantial TOT that is a result of expensive R&D and long experience that later can decrease their competitiveness? This is basic logic that should be easy to be absorbed. I also have connection with some one within our state owned defense company who understand about this TOT, so I dont talk without basis.
We have to be very cautious with the opinion and statement given by defense analyst as they could possibly have connection with foreign OEM companies. Alman Helvast for example work in Semarsentinel and the CEO is white man with broken English which can easily be suspected as someone from Non English speaking European (like French). He gets good information access, but we should be careful when he makes his own opinion/prediction over some issue.
Journalist statement also should be cautiously absorbed as they may also have connection with foreign OEM or Indonesian brokers as it is not a secret that journalist can possibly get some amount of money from that company (makanya kita melihat ada tulisan wartawan kita tidak menerima amplop dlm iklan Media Indonesia atau Metro TV)
Beside that, OEM who produce fighter jet, frigates, submarines are also difficult to give TOT on the components since the components are made by another specialized companies, like avionics, weapon system and engine. Our main deficiency is not on the platform (harware like airframe and ships hull), but the critical components and as I have said in earlier paragraph.
This is why the fastest way to accelerate our domestic defense industry beside increasing the R&D and education of our experts ( giving them Phd in US and European STEM universities) is to make them become OEM of the equipment we want to buy where they can get higher bargaining position from defense companies who will supply the critical components, something like Korean get from GE in F 414 engine for KF 21/IFX.
Strategic partner
The other thing that is also very important to accelerate our domestic defense industry capability is to get strategic partner who is willing to cooperate with us, since the biggest way to get meaningful technology transfer and upgrading is to have joint program with them like what we have done in KF 21 program with South Korea. Not easy to have a strategic partner in defense industry and we have seen failed partnership between India and Russia in FGFA program.
Just for example, KF 21 program has given us huge experience in STEALTH fighter design, Indonesian engineers have been working on the design since 2011. This kind of experience cannot be taken by just buying plane and get some offset of producing some airframe parts where the workers for that kind of job are actually high school graduate (STM) as an example. Indonesia Aerospace also has made F 16 wings since late 1980's as Offset of ordering 12 F 16 A/B.
So it is important for us to maintain our current program with South Korea since that country is the one that is willing to give us substantial TOT (Makassar class LPD and CBG submarine) and even include Indonesia with their ambitious KF 21 program. The reason of why SK do that is not merely due to money (getting sales or broadening the market) and Indonesia current defense industry capability which is quite good in Asia level for aerospace and naval industries, but it goes to their strategic defense and foreign strategy that make Indonesia become their only strategic partner in Asia Pacific.
This is due to Japan and China are basically seen as their rival and potential adversary and the only nation in Asia Pacific region that is seen as having a good potency to be very influential in the region ( beside Japan and China) is Indonesia that has already become G 20 member. We should not waste this opportunity as SK also has proven to have quite advance defense industry.
Even SK also the one that is willing to have JV company with our state owned battery company to make EV battery supply chain ( processes from the mining of the battery raw materials, smelting/ refining, battery chemicals manufacturing, battery cells manufacturing, all the way to the recycling of used batteries) while US company (Tesla) refuses. This EV battery is very crucial and strategic as it can be future propulsion system, not only for cars but also potentially cruise missile, UCAV and even plane.
Industri Baterai Indonesia will develop an integrated battery business that covers mining, smelting, manufacturing, to recycling.
jakartaglobe.id