Why a powerful Indonesia could influence Australia's future more than China
By Michael Walsh - Posted July 9th 2018
If its economy continues to grow at its current rate, Indonesia will become one of the most powerful nations in the world in coming decades.
Key points:
- Indonesia could become the fourth largest economy in the world by 2050.
- Strategist Hugh White says a powerful Indonesia could help limit China's influence
- He said having strong ties with Indonesia would be a strategic asset to Australia
But while China's rise has loomed large in Australian foreign policy thinking, our northern neighbour's growing fortunes hardly seem to register.
Strategist Hugh White from the Australian National University has discussed what these developments could mean for Australia in a lead essay for the latest edition of Australian Foreign Affairs magazine.
"Indonesia, our next door neighbour, is going end up being a very rich and therefore very powerful country. And we haven't really thought about what to make of that," Professor White told the ABC's The World program.
Professor White says the Australian Government currently estimates that Indonesia's economy will be three times the size of ours by 2030, and may even become the fourth largest in the world by 2050.
"Indonesia's a funny economy because in some ways it looks very disorganised — it's got a lot of corruption, it's got a bad legal system and a lot of nationalism that can inhibit trade," he said.
"But the fact is that for a long time now, it's been growing at an average of 5 or 6 per cent per annum, and there doesn't seem much reason not to expect it to keep on doing that."
Could Indonesia help balance out China worries?
Professor White said there were two main ways to look at Indonesia's growth: as a potential threat, or as a potential strategic asset in a region where power dynamics are beginning to shift in China's favour.
"We've traditionally seen Indonesia as a very difficult neighbour, very close and potentially threatening to Australia," he said.
"In many ways Australian defence policy for decades has focused very strongly on the possibility of some sort of conflict with Indonesia."
Professor White argues in his essay that a strong Indonesia that shares Australia's aims would be an "immense asset", but one that does not could pose "unprecedented threats" — and whichever way Indonesia chooses to go "may well matter more to our strategic future than anything else".
"It's the only one of our neighbours that's strong enough to really work with us to help to secure the region," he told the ABC.
"Like Australia, it's a little bit worried about how China's power's growing, it doesn't want to live under China's shadow."
Earlier this year Indonesia signed a communique with India stressing the importance of a "rules-based" Indo-Pacific region, interpreted by many as a reaction to concerns over China's actions in the South China Sea.
Indonesia does not have any territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, however China says the two nations have "overlapping claims" in waters Indonesia says are part of its exclusive economic zone, which has led to clashes in recent years.
Canberra must avoid 'transactional' relations with Jakarta
Professor White said while he does not think Australia can simply tell Indonesia what to do, more sustained conversations between Canberra and Jakarta on their shared interests would be an important step.
Australia would also need to strengthen its relationship with Indonesia, which Professor White said has become "very transactional" under successive governments.
"The relationship with Indonesia could be more important than any other relationship we have in helping us to manage the rise of China, and the changes in Asia that that's going to bring," he said.
"They've dealt with [Indonesia] on specific issues like terrorism or boat people, those sorts of things, but haven't tried to build the really broad base of strategic understanding and cooperation which I think is going to be really essential for Australia's interests."
A Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) spokesperson said Indonesia was one of Australia's most important bilateral partners.
"We share a close, comprehensive and enduring relationship spanning a wide range of areas from economic, trade and investment, to defence and security, people to people links, tourism and education," the spokesperson said in a statement.
"The Foreign Minister will visit Indonesia next month, reaffirming the importance of the relationship and its potential to grow even further."
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/why-a-powerful-indonesia-may-matter-more-than-china/9940834#
And there is somebody prominent in our country said Indonesia will break and cease to exist in 2030 .. Based on a novel he read.
Publishing bogus / sensational stories is the main reason most Indonesia medias were inside my personal "blacklist". Although certain Indonesia printed medias is still good, their online version is completly different animal (different redactional team altogether). In practice I've only read local / city news, and for international news I've always rely on Reuters and ground sources for verification.
Same here! I also rely on AP news since its pretty much equal to Reuters.
Jakarta Post is good reading for day to day news so long as you are aware of their bias. Stay away from their Editorial Board and Opinion pieces though, they're garbage.
Jakarta Globe is much more lax in its daily reporting (It isn't sensationalist simply because they don't publish fast enough to be so), and their opinion pieces tend to be more nuanced.
Been relying on SCMP more lately, they tend to still understand the Asian mentality and have good articles.
JP is grossly biased indeed, it's more like Faux news special for Indonesia.
Whenever I read opinion pieces from JP I often wondered are their journalists and contributors really Indonesian living in Indonesia or they just a group of fakers with an agenda? Because they seem not knowing nor understand the people, culture, and the country they living in.
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