India's prospective PM has pro-China Inclinations

[The Archnazi]

Only Modi won't decide the complete foreign policy for India.

It is the party which he belongs to. It is a well known fact that BJP is more Pro-US & Israel than Congress.

Yes, Modi would prefer doing business with China but not at the cost of US.

There is no question of either-or in deciding foreign policy.

Modi is bigger than the party, he alone will decide foreign policy, while he may be pro-israel but he is definitely not pro-us and pro-china.

 

[Contrarian]

The border dispute is the least issue between India and China. India will continue to milk the US's apprehension of China's rise and it can only do that if a certain amount of tension is maintained in the India-China relationship. Tension with China is also needed for India to make inroads in SE Asia, again, to feed off those countries disputes with China.

Trade with China will increase, but no Indian government -- least of all Modi -- will get too friendly with China.

Modi is nothing if not pragmatic.
He takes the route that brings maximum benefit. He is predictable in that sense.

So I do think Modi will get quite friendly with China. He already has a very favourable opinion of them, and they of him. He is somewhat anti- US. It ties up quite nicely.

 

[rott]

When will the elections be held in India?

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Modi is nothing if not pragmatic.
He takes the route that brings maximum benefit. He is predictable in that sense.

So I do think Modi will get quite friendly with China. He already has a very favourable opinion of them, and they of him. He is somewhat anti- US. It ties up quite nicely.

Modi's real benefit is that he is pro-business. Not super-socialist like India's current government. And the thing about business is that all sides benefit.

Him being anti-US is more of a side bonus.

We do form close relationships with plenty of countries that are traditionally allies with the US, Saudi Arabia being a major example. Not like we have a choice really, most countries in the world lean towards one camp or another. We don't have any room to be picky.

 

[Vinod2070]

Well India is too big to get into any camp as a junior partner or lackey or a client state.

We need to maximize our outcomes working with everyone without allying with anyone.

It should never be like: Your enemy is my enemy.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Well India is too big to get into any camp as a junior partner or lackey or a client state.

We need to maximize our outcomes working with everyone without allying with anyone.

It should never be like: Your enemy is my enemy.

In fact our two largest trading partners (apart from the EU) are America and Japan, our main rival and our traditional enemy.

Business is all about mutual benefits, if someone is not benefiting from a deal they will just go and find another deal.

In the end, a stronger economy does the most good for the most amount of people. People hate on the Jews a lot, but the Jews are good businesspeople and they used that to do very well for themselves, instead of being jealous it's better to follow their pro-business attitude and do well for ourselves too.

 

[Developereo]

Modi is nothing if not pragmatic.

If Modi is pragmatic, then the US is 10x more pragmatic. They will deal with whoever is in power and, if Indian business leaders even suspect that Modi is harming their business interests (with the US) because of personal tantrums, they will castigate him so fast, it will make his head spin.

So I do think Modi will get quite friendly with China. He already has a very favourable opinion of them, and they of him. He is somewhat anti- US. It ties up quite nicely.

Is he also anti-Japan? There is no secret what's behind the 'strategic' partnership being touted between Japan and India.

India's foreign policy has been carefully crafted over the decades to play all sides against each other. If Modi is smart, he won't mess with a proven formula. India's foreign policy will not change significantly towards most countries.

However, I suspect Modi would take a stronger approach towards Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The reason is two-fold: it will mollify the Hindutva crowd that he is "looking out" for Hindu pride, and it will also satisfy the secular Indians who want a visible validation of India's new status. Modi won't mess with the big players, but he will recalibrate India's relationship with PK/BD/SL. India will adopt a more belligerent/assertive/muscular (adjective depending on reader's position) role.

 

[Tshering22]

The man hails from a community well known for business and trading: Gujaratis. He has a knack of identifying where all money can be made and jobs can be created. With a 76% population under 30, his first task will be to set up trade establishments, create jobs and develop infrastructure in the country like his hometown.

The only way today's world can have a prosperous lifestyle is by jobs jobs and jobs.

He will do what he has to to achieve that.

National defence policy will continue in its role.

 

[Contrarian]

If Modi is pragmatic, then the US is 10x more pragmatic. They will deal with whoever is in power and, if Indian business leaders even suspect that Modi is harming their business interests (with the US) because of personal tantrums, they will castigate him so fast, it will make his head spin.

As I said. Modi is pragmatic. He is not against anyone who brings business/money to India.
It appears to me Developereo that you think we - as in Indians - feel like Pakistani's and believe in 'special relationships' and what not. We dont - as a nation - we dont believe in that.

We know for a fact that if Modi is elected, he will be treated extremely well by US and every country in the world for that matter.

Secondly, the defining aspect of Modi is that he is India centric. That means he will deal with the devil if it benefits India. There is no practical way that he will harm any Indian business interests because of ideological conflicts(which are none) or past issues(which are some) to colour India's relationship with US.

I would put money down on the fact that while Indo-US relationship will continue to deepen, Indo-Chinese relations will start to grow.

Is he also anti-Japan? There is no secret what's behind the 'strategic' partnership being touted between Japan and India.

India's foreign policy has been carefully crafted over the decades to play all sides against each other. If Modi is smart, he won't mess with a proven formula. India's foreign policy will not change significantly towards most countries.

It wont -policy of live and let live - barring immediate neighbours.
He is likely to follow the opposite of what Manmohan followed. Manmohan was very pro Pakistan.

And Japanese relations with India are as much strategic as much economic. The economic part of which is unlikely to change.

However, I suspect Modi would take a stronger approach towards Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The reason is two-fold: it will mollify the Hindutva crowd that he is "looking out" for Hindu pride, and it will also satisfy the secular Indians who want a visible validation of India's new status. Modi won't mess with the big players, but he will recalibrate India's relationship with PK/BD/SL. India will adopt a more belligerent/assertive/muscular (adjective depending on reader's position) role.

Correct.

 

[SQ8]

Seems to contradict this entirely..
Narendra Modi on China and Pakistan: Foreign Policy Stance or Electioneering Rhetoric?

 

[Developereo]

It appears to me Developereo that you think we - as in Indians - feel like Pakistani's and believe in 'special relationships' and what not. We dont - as a nation - we dont believe in that.

I never said anything about a special relationship. Many Indians here have suggested that the US will regret antagonizing Modi and he will somehow 'pay back' if/when he gets in power.

An emotional and vindictive Modi would be a gift to India's rivals (and there are indications that he is quite authoritative, uncompromising and a bit of a control freak.) Anyway, only time will tell.

It wont -policy of live and let live - barring immediate neighbours.
He is likely to follow the opposite of what Manmohan followed. Manmohan was very pro Pakistan.

So we agree that there won't be any tectonic shifts in India's foreign policy (possibly barring PK, SL, BD).

 

[Contrarian]

I never said anything about a special relationship. Many Indians here have suggested that the US will regret antagonizing Modi and he will somehow 'pay back' if/when he gets in power.

He will not payback per say. It would be a slight tilt whenever he can get away with it that is without hurting Indian interests.
Just like how India supported Russia on the Crimean issue - though that was even without a tilt. GoI was rather pleased to do it noticing how India and US were fighting on a range of issues - from trade rights to intellectual property rights to khobragade issue.

An emotional and vindictive Modi would be a gift to India's rivals (and there are indications that he is quite authoritative, uncompromising and a bit of a control freak.) Anyway, only time will tell.

I agree.
Therefore more or less, he will do what is in Indian interests. His real tests will not be foreign policy. Indians generally are least bothered what happens outside their borders. His real tests will be legislative and economic issues.

So we agree that there won't be any tectonic shifts in India's foreign policy (possibly barring PK, SL, BD).

Yes. Its almost certain.
One notable exception- he is keen on enhancing Indo-Chinese relations.

 

[Vinod2070]

In fact our two largest trading partners (apart from the EU) are America and Japan, our main rival and our traditional enemy.

Business is all about mutual benefits, if someone is not benefiting from a deal they will just go and find another deal.

In the end, a stronger economy does the most good for the most amount of people. People hate on the Jews a lot, but the Jews are good businesspeople and they used that to do very well for themselves, instead of being jealous it's better to follow their pro-business attitude and do well for ourselves too.

Nations look for their advantage in any relationship.

Of course there are the ones like "frontline allies", "the most allied ally", "Major Non Nato ally" that are at the forefront of others' fights (supposedly for selfless purposes). They supposedly had such major issues with the "evil empire" or the "communist ideology" and such great affinity to the "capitalist ideology" that they became "the most allied ally" at the "frontlines".

They are even at the frontline of the battle against political Islam and terrorism! Fighting supposedly other peoples' battles.

At the same time they also have the "higher than and deeper than and sweeter than" relationship with the supposed rival of the same hyper power of which they are the most allied ally.

Yet that is not "playing one against the other".

But the very explicit "non alignment" is supposedly "playing one against the other"!

Anyway, this "most allied ally" thing may work for some countries that are forever looking to be the client states of one or the other power (or may be multiple powers at the same time).

It doesn't work for us. We will work with any and every country with which there are mutual interests.

 

[Vinod2070]

Modi is nothing if not pragmatic.
He takes the route that brings maximum benefit. He is predictable in that sense.

So I do think Modi will get quite friendly with China. He already has a very favourable opinion of them, and they of him. He is somewhat anti- US. It ties up quite nicely.

I don't think he is anti-US. He is probably just not as favorable to them as MMS was (but could never deliver on that).

There is a strong Gujarati community in the US and he has excellent connections in that community.

I think under Modi, the full import of the "look East" policy will really be realized. We need to have strong partnership with Japan to industrialize quickly and generate jobs. There are excellent and obvious complementary strengths and needs on the two sides.

At the same time, we need to engage China in a fruitful and mutually beneficial relationship and get rid of the irritant of border settlement quickly.

With USA, I don't see anything drastically changing at least till the Obama administration is replaced.

I am sure there will be better relations with some of our neighbors who are not implacably hostile. With others it will be more of business as usual but with a firmer hand as needed.

 

[Huawei]

The border dispute is the least issue between India and China. India will continue to milk the US's apprehension of China's rise and it can only do that if a certain amount of tension is maintained in the India-China relationship. Tension with China is also needed for India to make inroads in SE Asia, again, to feed off those countries disputes with China.

Trade with China will increase, but no Indian government -- least of all Modi -- will get too friendly with China.

This is the only relevant post.

If Modi is pragmatic, then the US is 10x more pragmatic. They will deal with whoever is in power and, if Indian business leaders even suspect that Modi is harming their business interests (with the US) because of personal tantrums, they will castigate him so fast, it will make his head spin.



Is he also anti-Japan? There is no secret what's behind the 'strategic' partnership being touted between Japan and India.

India's foreign policy has been carefully crafted over the decades to play all sides against each other. If Modi is smart, he won't mess with a proven formula. India's foreign policy will not change significantly towards most countries.

However, I suspect Modi would take a stronger approach towards Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The reason is two-fold: it will mollify the Hindutva crowd that he is "looking out" for Hindu pride, and it will also satisfy the secular Indians who want a visible validation of India's new status. Modi won't mess with the big players, but he will recalibrate India's relationship with PK/BD/SL. India will adopt a more belligerent/assertive/muscular (adjective depending on reader's position) role.

Another brilliant post.

I never said anything about a special relationship. Many Indians here have suggested that the US will regret antagonizing Modi and he will somehow 'pay back' if/when he gets in power.

An emotional and vindictive Modi would be a gift to India's rivals (and there are indications that he is quite authoritative, uncompromising and a bit of a control freak.) Anyway, only time will tell.



So we agree that there won't be any tectonic shifts in India's foreign policy (possibly barring PK, SL, BD).

Once again, good point.