India's GDP growth of 6.7% to be fastest in world in 2022: UNCTAD

[Indos]

Running a budget deficit is not a problem if the economy can growth fast enough so that the debt remains serviceable. India's 6% deficit is a risky bet that growth will continue at a faster rate. So far this year, I've seen a lot of FDI rolling into the country even for second tier cities outside the usual Mumbai-NCR-Bengaluru zone. Hopefully, this will promote enough growth to keep the engine rolling.

As for currency depreciation, it is always on the cards for India when Feds start raising interest rates. Rising fuel import bill, declining reserves and unplanned increase in deficit will all contribute to it. But if the economic growth retains its momentum (driven by FDI), then some of the retreating FII may make its way back to India again. Not a lot of Indian companies are listed in the NASDAQ today. I can imagine that there is opportunity there for future. Future is unwritten, it need not be gloom and doom

Indonesia during Soeharto period is also doing what India post 2000 is doing, having large budget deficit to boost growth, so this is not surprise that Indonesia during that period can grow at 7 % every year.

But this policy is one of the main reason of why our currency fall drastically in the Asian Financial Crisis 1997-1998 that led to severe economic crisis

This is why Indonesia always have budget deficit less than 3 % of GDP since 2000, this is a policy which is derived from our experience during Asian Financial Crisis. This is also why Indonesia economy growth in average is between 5-6 % after the year 2000. We only raise budget deficit after Covid 19 pandemic struct the nation in 2020, but it is started to decline in 2021, and targeted to be below 3 percent of GDP again in 2023 forward.

See your Central Bank has already raised interest rate to prevent your currency sinking further, higher interest rate means more drag into the economy growth

 

[pikkuboss]

This Q1 data is really helpful to understand what will happen for the next 1-2 years ahead.

Vietnam GDP growth shows below expectation ( 5.03 percent ) for example. As I have stated previously, this 2022 forward is not business as usual

Some external variable that I have explained in my previous post needs to be considered in the projection

If Jan-Mar data is posted on 31st March prices, then INR was in comfortable position at that time.

 

[Indos]

If Jan-Mar data is posted on 31st March prices, then INR was in comfortable position at that time.

Indian Rupee has started to decline quite deep since January 2022.

This was 2021 performance

GDP growth figure actually is not impacted by the fall of currency. For public, we will know the real GDP figure in the next year. This is why Turkey GDP growth is still forecasted by IMF at positive 2 percent this 2022, despite the GDP figure itself is likely below than 2021 GDP figure (nominal) due to their currency deep fall

The same thing happen with Indonesia in early 2010-2013, our GDP nominal figure is stuck at 910-930 billion USD despite the growth number is still around 5-5.5 percent every year

 

[pikkuboss]

Indian Rupee has started to decline quite deep since January 2022.

This was 2021 performance

View attachment 842692

GDP growth figure actually is not impacted by the fall of currency. For public, we will know the real GDP figure in the next year. This is why Turkey GDP growth is still forecasted by IMF at positive 2 percent this 2022, despite the GDP figure itself is likely below than 2021 GDP figure (nominal) due to their currency deep fall

The same thing happen with Indonesia in early 2010-2013, our GDP nominal figure is stuck at 910-930 billion USD despite the growth number is still around 5-5.5 percent every year

A 20 year graph of rupee rupiyah is flat. The recent fluctuation is due to global inflation. Indonesia stock market took a dump like India last week. I don't find anything serious according to international trend.

If you look at Japanese Yen, you will call it danger. India is used to this type of fluctuations, while Yen is considered reserve currency.

 

[Indos]

View attachment 842700

A 20 year graph of rupee rupiyah is flat. The recent fluctuation is due to global inflation. Indonesia stock market took a dump like India last week. I don't find anything serious according to international trend.

View attachment 842702

Well cherry picking to win some score, see the performance of Jan-9 May 2022 to understand the real strength of Indonesian currency and stock market.

Did Indians made this prediction in your brain? Or did they whisper into your ears?

Why don't you show which Indian where made a prediction of "8-9 percent growth" in Q3FY22 rather than beating around the bush.

Or just accept you lied and move on.

See my post again above, I dont talk specifically about your weird fiscal year of Q3 Y22 that should be Q4 Y22 in general standard fiscal year.

 

[pikkuboss]

Well cherry picking to win some score, see the performance of Jan-9 May 2022 to understand the real strength of Indonesian currency and stock market.

Look at these two graphs of same timeline and tell me which performed better. I am not cherry picking because I have shared a long term performance. Indonesian market is still hovering around pre pandemic level while Indian market has takan a giant leap.

 

[Indos]

View attachment 842708View attachment 842709

Look at these two graphs of same timeline and tell me which performed better. I am not cherry picking because I have shared a long term performance. Indonesian market is still hovering around pre pandemic level while Indian market has takan a giant leap.

What is Nitfy 50 features by the way ????? Selected stock in India Stock Exchange ???

While you bring Jakarta Stock Exchange as comparison for Indonesia

 

[Indos]

Indonesia stock market will likely to jump as soon as Indonesia government let our CPO and refined palm oil products to be exported again...........

This is why hard sharp in stock market movement is not a good point to show strength of the stock market itself. People who understand the economy will know, while people who just see the up and down of stocks index without the knowing reasons behind it will be the loser

 

[pikkuboss]

What is Nitfy 50 features by the way ????? Selected stock in India Stock Exchange ???

While you bring Jakarta Stock Exchange as comparison for Indonesia

I could find only 1 major indice from Indonesia. Tell me your Nifty 50 equivalent.

Major Stock Market Indices - Investing.com India

Get live quotes from the most popular indices and stock markets including the NIFTY, KOSPI and BSE.

in.investing.com

 

[Indos]

I could find only 1 major indice from Indonesia. Tell me your Nifty 50 equivalent.

Major Stock Market Indices - Investing.com India

Get live quotes from the most popular indices and stock markets including the NIFTY, KOSPI and BSE.

in.investing.com

OK now you have admitted that you use selected Indian stocks while for Indonesia you use the Jakarta Stock Market Index ( aggregate number/non selected )...

I dont invest in stock market, I dont know the detail of it, what I know is that the PE ratio in India stock market is much higher than PE ratio in Indonesia stock market.

It means fundamentally, investing in Indonesia stock market has more reasonable reason since it is backed by better profit/earning performance

 

[pikkuboss]

OK now you have admitted that you use selected Indian stocks while for Indonesia you use the Jakarta Stock Market Index ( aggregate number/non selected )...

I dont invest in stock market, I dont know the detail of it, what I know is that the PE ratio in India stock market is much higher than PE ratio in Indonesia stock market.

It means fundamentally, investing in Indonesia stock market has more reasonable reason since it is backed by better profit/earning performance

Sensex similar to IDX composite has similar chart to Nifty50. Emerging economies with future higher growth prediction will have higher PE ratio, it's normal.

 

[Wood]

Indonesia during Soeharto period is also doing what India post 2000 is doing, having large budget deficit to boost growth, so this is not surprise that Indonesia during that period can grow at 7 % every year.

But this policy is one of the main reason of why our currency fall drastically in the Asian Financial Crisis 1997-1998 that led to severe economic crisis

This is why Indonesia always have budget deficit less than 3 % of GDP since 2000, this is a policy which is derived from our experience during Asian Financial Crisis. This is also why Indonesia economy growth in average is between 5-6 % after the year 2000. We only raise budget deficit after Covid 19 pandemic struct the nation in 2020, but it is started to decline in 2021, and targeted to be below 3 percent of GDP again in 2023 forward.

See your Central Bank has already raised interest rate to prevent your currency sinking further, higher interest rate means more drag into the economy growth

The risks of running a fiscal deficit and the use of interest rates as a monetary tool by the sovereign to deal with inflation is well known. It would be more interesting if you can share the private and public sector debt level and currency depreciation for Indonesia at the start of the Asian crisis. As I've said before, Indians don't know much about Indonesia