India's GDP growth of 6.7% to be fastest in world in 2022: UNCTAD

[jamahir]

@jamahir So are you happy with the development from BJP govt? Why isn't communist govt in Kerala doing enough?

I just want to hear appreciation message for BJP from a communist. That's all.

Putting out 500 electric buses on roads where there are a million petroleum-fueled personal cars and two-wheelers driven about day and night ? What difference will that make ? This is just pretence. You ask Goa's BJP government to be brave and do the below ( rationale explained at length ) :

Making the case for a global ban on privately-owned personal transport cars and two-wheelers

I have often made this topic in posts so I thought why not create a thread for this for discussion and readership. Privately-owned personal transport vehicles ( cars and two-wheelers ) are I believe the biggest form of pollution in the world, directly through their usage and secondarily through...

defence.pk

Now Indian rupee has fallen from 75 to 77.5, this has depreciated by 3.3%.

Even if India's local currency GDP grew by 6.7%, the GDP growth of the US dollar was only 3.4%.

What does all that mean, Dear Member From "Communist" China ?

 

[MH.Yang]

..currency can fluctuate. I agree that there is a general downward trend for INR, but precipitous drops get corrected. So your statement has an assumption that 77.5 will be rate when calculating next years nominal GDP figure

However, most financial institutions predict that the Indian Rupee will fall further, even below 78 before October.

Real growth is measured in PPP, not Nominal.

And dollar value has nothing to do with that.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1401251430015582209

Now India's CPI exceeds 6% and PPI exceeds 13%. Even if India's local currency grows by 6.7%, India's real growth is only 0.7%.



Now India is facing the crisis of inflation and currency devaluation. It is meaningless to talk about GDP growth in its own currency. Do you know how much Turkey's local currency GDP grew last year? Turkey's local currency GDP grew by 42.8% in 2021, but this is meaningless in the face of inflation and devaluation! The current situation in India is a little better than that in Turkey in 2021, but it is only a little better.

 

[Wood]

However, most financial institutions predict that the Indian Rupee will fall further, even below 78 before October.

If predictions are a certainty, then all of us can start minting millions. I agree that Indian currency has a general downward trend, but it cannot be assumed that fluctuations cannot be corrected. Making assumptions about nominal GDP calculation based on intermediate fluctuations in a year can be misleading.

 

[pikkuboss]

However, most financial institutions predict that the Indian Rupee will fall further, even below 78 before October.


Now India's CPI exceeds 6% and PPI exceeds 13%. Even if India's local currency grows by 6.7%, India's real growth is only 0.7%.



Now India is facing the crisis of inflation and currency devaluation. It is meaningless to talk about GDP growth in its own currency. Do you know how much Turkey's local currency GDP grew last year? Turkey's local currency GDP grew by 42.8% in 2021, but this is meaningless in the face of inflation and devaluation! The current situation in India is a little better than that in Turkey in 2021, but it is only a little better.

Well development is more important than GDP numbers. Rapid development is quite visible in India currently. GDP is just a number which can be taken care of.

 

[Indos]

If predictions are a certainty, then all of us can start minting millions. I agree that Indian currency has a general downward trend, but it cannot be assumed that fluctuations cannot be corrected. Making assumptions about nominal GDP calculation based on intermediate fluctuations in a year can be misleading.

Fundamentally Indian economy has weak points. This is the reason many experts think Indian Rupee will likely to remain weak, unless there is changes in Indian fundamental economy.

Just for example, Indonesia has started to come back to have deficit less than 3 % of GDP in our government budget, this is the target that has already been started to achieve in 2021 where Covid 19 pandemic is less dangerous compared to 2020 due to the available vaccine that has been started to use in early 2021.

While India government still not try to curb their budget deficit this year CMIIW, which is good for boosting growth, but in term of long term sustainable economic development the decision not to bring down budget deficit will pose great risk to the economy. As far as I know India gov always has around 6 % of GDP budget deficit to boost the growth.

In addition of that economic fundamental condition, the even of high energy and commodities prices which is added with US The Fed policy of higher interest rate and gradually stopping quantitative easing policy make India currency is getting vulnerable,

@Nilgiri protested my prediction of Indian currency vulnerability amid possible The Fed new policy that will start in early 2022 when I said that in second semester of 2021. But now what I have predicted come true, weaker Indian Rupee and much stable Indonesian Rupiah (AlhamduliLLAH)

 

[Andhadhun]

However, most financial institutions predict that the Indian Rupee will fall further, even below 78 before October.


Now India's CPI exceeds 6% and PPI exceeds 13%. Even if India's local currency grows by 6.7%, India's real growth is only 0.7%.



Now India is facing the crisis of inflation and currency devaluation. It is meaningless to talk about GDP growth in its own currency. Do you know how much Turkey's local currency GDP grew last year? Turkey's local currency GDP grew by 42.8% in 2021, but this is meaningless in the face of inflation and devaluation! The current situation in India is a little better than that in Turkey in 2021, but it is only a little better.

India will be releasing its GDP figures in a month. You can hold on to your propaganda till then.

 

[Wood]

Fundamentally Indian economy has weak points. This is the reason many experts think Indian Rupee will likely to remain weak, unless there is changes in Indian fundamental economy.

Just for example, Indonesia has started to come back to have deficit less than 3 % of GDP in our government budget, this is the target that has already been started to achieve in 2021 where Covid 19 pandemic is less dangerous compared to 2020 due to the available vaccine that has been started to use in early 2021.

While India government still not try to curb their budget deficit this year CMIIW, which is good for boosting growth, but in term of long term sustainable economic development the decision not to bring down budget deficit will pose great risk to the economy. As far as I know India gov always has around 6 % of GDP budget deficit to boost the growth.

In addition of that economic fundamental condition, the even of high energy and commodities prices which is added with US The Fed policy of higher interest rate and gradually stopping quantitative easing policy make India currency is getting vulnerable,

@Nilgiri protested my prediction of Indian currency vulnerability amid possible The Fed new policy that will start in early 2022 when I said that in second semester of 2021. But now what I have predicted come true, weaker Indian Rupee and much stable Indonesian Rupiah (AlhamduliLLAH)

View attachment 842551

Running a budget deficit is not a problem if the economy can growth fast enough so that the debt remains serviceable. India's 6% deficit is a risky bet that growth will continue at a faster rate. So far this year, I've seen a lot of FDI rolling into the country even for second tier cities outside the usual Mumbai-NCR-Bengaluru zone. Hopefully, this will promote enough growth to keep the engine rolling.

As for currency depreciation, it is always on the cards for India when Feds start raising interest rates. Rising fuel import bill, declining reserves and unplanned increase in deficit will all contribute to it. But if the economic growth retains its momentum (driven by FDI), then some of the retreating FII may make its way back to India again. Not a lot of Indian companies are listed in the NASDAQ today. I can imagine that there is opportunity there for future. Future is unwritten, it need not be gloom and doom

 

[Cheepek]

Now Indian rupee has fallen from 75 to 77.5, this has depreciated by 3.3%.

Even if India's local currency GDP grew by 6.7%, the GDP growth of the US dollar was only 3.4%.

What in the hell does this even mean!

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

What in the hell does this even mean!

Han economics

 

[Cheepek]

Now India's CPI exceeds 6% and PPI exceeds 13%. Even if India's local currency grows by 6.7%, India's real growth is only 0.7%.

More mathematics with Chinese characteristics.

Now India is facing the crisis of inflation and currency devaluation.

The current situation in India is a little better than that in Turkey in 2021, but it is only a little better.

Acha

 

[Bilal9]

I think you and your five year old have a long distance to cover before making economic projections.

"Denial" is the name of of a river in Egypt....

Whatever you think does not matter, as long as your thoughts aren't based on facts and figures.

UNCTAD's credibility is a bit better than some random guy in India going, "Trust me bro....".

Don't argue - just watch.

You have no clue how badly Modi has ruined the Indian economy.....

Notebandi has pushed Indian economy back at least a decade.

Read this,
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Synopsis

Delivering his address at 11th Convocation of ICFAI Foundation for Higher Education, Rangarajan said attempts should be made to curb the adverse impact of a third wave of COVID-19, if it happens and both the coverage of vaccination and the pace of investment in health infrastructure should be accelerated within the strategy of expanding the overall infrastructure investment.​

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...ofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

India becoming a USD five trillion economy by 2025 is impossible under the current circumstance and the country needs to grow at nine per cent per annum for the next five years in order to achieve that, former Reserve Bank Governor C Rangarajan said on Friday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IMF cuts India's economy growth forecast to 9% in FY22

In its latest update of World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the Washington-based international financial institution put the forecast for the next fiscal FY23 (April 2022 to March 2023) at 7.1 per cent

www.livemint.com

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What will happen is Indian economy will grow at 8-9% this fiscal (2022-23), less than 7% next fiscal and then slowdown to mid 5% rates the fiscal after, retaining that level of growth for a decade at least.

5 Trillion economy dilli dur ast.

I predict that Bangladesh will become a 1 Trillion economy before India becomes a 5 Trillion economy. Bangladesh is quite close to becoming a half-trillion dollar economy in any case. Now chew on that Paan-Ghutka bit for a while.....

 

[Bilal9]

India will be releasing its GDP figures in a month. You can hold on to your propaganda till then.

Cooked and fudged numbers with achar (pickle) coming up....courtesy of Godi economists and media...

 

[Black Tornado]

@jamahir So are you happy with the development from BJP govt? Why isn't communist govt in Kerala doing enough?

They’re busy in creating trade unions and doing “Nokku-kooli”. Such a great government which can’t provide jobs to us because of which Mallus have to go abroad for work.

Kerala is already a pretty good state in social standard. If there is an area for criticism there, it is that they are very dependent on remittance. Initially, I thought that their remittance dependency was just over blown. But turns out that it is real and could lead to a problem for the state down the road.

This is communism in a nutshell, spend tonnes of money to make your socio-economic indicators better than the rest but end up getting your finances effed up.

 

[Black Tornado]

Cooked and fudged numbers with achar (pickle) coming up....courtesy of Godi economists and media...

Says who?

 

[Indos]

This Q1 data is really helpful to understand what will happen for the next 1-2 years ahead.

Vietnam GDP growth shows below expectation ( 5.03 percent ) for example. As I have stated previously, this 2022 forward is not business as usual

Some external variable that I have explained in my previous post needs to be considered in the projection