India's Forex Reserves Fall As Foreign Investors Head For The Exits

[Black Tornado]

What I can say any economist has their own calculation and it can be different in how they respond the economy fluctuation.

Just to remind folks here about Indonesia Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, she became nervous when Indonesia posted high trade deficit in 2018 which is actually only 8 billion USD (considered as very high in Indonesian standard based on our trade history). Even it is despite our GDP growth is still around 5 % and inflation is below 4% although we did experience of decreasing FDI during that year around 7 %.

The currency strength that she had in mind during that period, Indonesian economists still remember what happen during Asian Financial Crisis, so we are very prudent and take currency depreciation as some thing serious.

That 2018 year is one of the main reason Indonesia gov even didnt buy any foreign defense equipment and start negotiating on KFX/IFX program, this is despite we have already trillion USD economy (nominal GDP) during that year.

Some sharp policies are made and thanks God we can decrease the trade deficit into around 3 billion USD in 2019 with around 32 % increase in FDI and since 2020 we always post trade surplus so far

Trade deficit will obviously be this much when your GDP barely touches 4-5% growth. Remittances and FDI make up more than enough until the global inflation cools down. Much of our imports are made up of gold and crude oil.

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Indos

Indonesia is lucky in that it is extremely blessed in natural resources- especially energy resources. It is easy for it to run up trade surpluses- developing economies which are not having large commodity and energy production (India, Pak for eg) do struggle in this respect.

Regards

 

[Indos]

@Indos

Indonesia is lucky in that it is extremely blessed in natural resources- especially energy resources. It is easy for it to run up trade surpluses- developing economies which are not having large commodity and energy production (India, Pak for eg) do struggle in this respect.

Regards

Correct, as in Quran stated, there is God hand as well in making any nation prosperous. USA for instant produce more oil than any country on Earth and they also has huge gas production which is in surplus. They also have huge coal production and still in surplus until Today.

China coal production is huge, the biggest in the world and the gap in production with Indonesia for example to very very large, it is just because China becomes the world producer that make them need so much electricity, they need to switch more into service economy to make the economy more balance

While India has huge coal production, number two in the world, but in term of oil and gas India is not that lucky

Indonesia has already become net oil importer since 2003 and currently our domestic production is only enough for half of our demand

But yes we still have huge coal production surplus that make us the biggest coal exporters while we also have huge palm oil industry which is a combination of God blessing and hard work as well. Our gas production is in surplus but not so much

 

[maithil]

@maithil @kaykay

To be honest I wont call the situation very comfortable- it never is during periods of high crude prices, Still India has seen worse days and I think we can hobble through this.

Regards

Of course. Situation will never be comfortable with such high crude oil prices. Hopefully we will do okay now that Russian discounted oil is coming in bigger quantity.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Correct, as in Quran stated, there is God hand as well in making any nation prosperous. USA for instant produce more oil than any country on Earth and they also has huge gas production which is in surplus. They also have huge coal production and still in surplus until Today.

China coal production is huge, the biggest in the world and the gap in production with Indonesia for example to very very large, it is just because China becomes the world producer that make them need so much electricity, they need to switch more into service economy to make the economy more balance

While India has huge coal production, number two in the world, but in term of oil and gas India is not that lucky

Indonesia has already become net oil importer since 2003 and currently our domestic production is only enough for half of our demand

But yes we still have huge coal production surplus that make us the biggest coal exporters while we also have huge palm oil industry which is a combination of God blessing and hard work as well. Our gas production is in surplus but not so much

That is why India is focused on investing in renewables and nuclear. It will take some time, but demand for oil will go down in the future, hopefully.

 

[Cheepek]

Relax maulvis, relax

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Cheepek

Why is India not covered in this survey?

Regards

 

[Skull and Bones]

Relax maulvis, relax

View attachment 860637

Link share kar na bhai.

 

[Black Tornado]

@Cheepek

Why is India not covered in this survey?

Regards

It covers the top most default-vulnerable countries i.e. countries ranked by their chances of default. So India is not even in top-50 countries in this list, which is a good thing.

 

[Cheepek]

@Cheepek

Why is India not covered in this survey?

Regards

Simply because

+ B. Short term debt

Link share kar na bhai.

Historic Cascade of Defaults Is Coming for Emerging Markets

Number of developing nations trading distressed has doubled, with El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia and Pakistan appearing particularly vulnerable.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[SoulSpokesman]

@Cheepek

OK. Got it. Most of that forex debt is not sovereign and such as exists, that number hasnt worsened. Thanks.

Regards

 

[Indos]

It covers the top most default-vulnerable countries i.e. countries ranked by their chances of default. So India is not even in top-50 countries in this list, which is a good thing.

Saudi Arabi is among those 50 countries and India is better than Saudi LOL

I have The economist data showing India is very vulnerable, much more vulnerable than Indonesia

Many data is also wrong, Indonesia Debt to GDP ratio is now at 39 %, decreasing from 40.7 % in 2021

 

[Black Tornado]

Saudi Arabi is among those 50 countries and India is better than Saudi LOL

I have The economist data showing India is very vulnerable, much more vulnerable than Indonesia

Many data is also wrong, Indonesia Debt to GDP ratio is now at 39 %, decreasing from 40.7 % in 2021

Bloomberg did their research and made the report, anything else is just pure cope. Also they’re at the bottom of the list.

 

[Bilal9]

He is a simple person. These facts are beyond his understanding capacity.

Thank you Mr. bhakt, now go climb on a Masjid Minaret.

 

[maithil]

Thank you Mr. bhakt, now go climb on a Masjid Minaret.

Relax moulvi.. got better things to do..