arp2041
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Won't happen if Russians really don't want it to happen. We simply don't have enough clout militarily or diplomatically to muscle our way into Russia's backyard with a military base. Russia can put a lot more pressure on central Asian countries than India can. Our diplomacy's triumph would be if we can get the Russians to agree, by convincing them that we don't pose any kind of threat to their interests, or even better, that it can work out to be in Russia's interest too.
Israel and India are independent countries, but USA can still block a sale of radars to India from Israel by pressurizing them. If the US can prevent us from getting a few radars from israel, Russia can definitely pressurize Tajikistan about a military base.
Yes, i agree that without the formal approval of Russia, no outside power can operate a military base in CIS nations, not even US will be able to do that. Actually, we should be proud of our diplomacy that we have able to convince the Tajik authorities to give us a base there, even though it currently does not have any fighter jets does not take anything away from the fact that it is India's only foreign military base. It will be very useful asset when the year 2014 comes as it will give us some leverage vis-a-vis our Afghan investments as we do not have direct access to Afghanistan.
It is time that we should convince the Russian authorities that this base will be important for the central asian region as a whole & will not be a headache for Russia, as Indian & Russian interests are more or less same as we both don't want US to become a power in central Asia nor we both want Taliban back in Kabul. Even if Russians don't agree i don't think India will leave the base easily as India has invested a lot for it's up gradation (time, money & manpower).