Indian, Russian negotiators agree on FGFA development: Cost of project reduced to $4 billion each

[SUDIP]

By Ajai Shukla
Business Standard, 25th Jan 15

The Indian Air Force (IAF), once an ardent backer of the proposed Indo-Russianfifth generation fighter aircraft (FGFA), has for the last two years sharply attacked the project. Critics say the FGFA is on the back burner to clear the way for the French Rafale fighter.

President Francois Hollande of France, who arrives in Delhi on Monday, has talked up the sale of 36 Rafales to India for an estimated $9 billion (Rs 60,000 crore).

Yet the FGFA remains alive. Last month Indian and Russian negotiators achieved a major breakthrough, agreeing to develop the FGFA at a lowered cost of $4 billion (Rs 27,000 crore) in India. That would open the doors to building of 250 FGFAs to replace the Sukhoi-30MKI.

Since 2008, the project was estimated to cost India and Russia $5.5 billion (Rs 37,000 crore) each. Adding inflation, that would be $6 billion (Rs 40,500 crore) each.

Now negotiators from Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd and Sukhoi - the development agencies; have agreed to do this 40 per cent more cheaply, for $4 billion spread over seven years. In the first year after signing, each side would pay $1 billion (Rs 6,750 crore), and another $500 million (Rs 3,380 crore) in each of the following six years.

Sukhoi is already test-flying the FGFA's precursor, which Russia calls the PAK-FA (Perspektivny Aviatsionny Kompleks Frontovoy Aviatsii, or "Prospective Airborne Complex of Frontline Aviation"). The FGFA project involves improving the PAK-FA significantly to meet the IAF's specifications. The IAF wants some 50 improvements to the PAK-FA, including a 360-degree radar and more powerful engines.

The proposal for a $4 billion research and development contract (R&D contract) will now come before a defence ministry "cost negotiation committee", and then to the Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar.

The R&D Contract visualises a prototype fighter flying in India within three years. In total, 11 prototypes would be built - eight of these PAK-FAs for the Russian Air Force, and three FGFAs for India.

Each country has already spent $295 million (Rs 1483 crore) on a "preliminary design contract" (PDC), Parrikar told parliament on August 4, 2015. The PDC, which spelt out the fighter's detailed configuration, was completed in June 2013.

The R&D contract should have followed immediately, but the IAF came out against the FGFA. As Business Standard reported (January 21, 2014, "Russia can't deliver on Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft: IAF") top air marshals alleged during a high-level ministry meeting in New Delhi that the FGFA would fall short of Indian expectations.

According to the details of that meeting, IAF objections to the FGFA were: (a) The Russians would not share critical design information with India; (b) The PAK-FA's engines are inadequate, being mere upgrades of the Sukhoi-30MKI's engines; and (c) Paying $6 billion to co-develop the FGFA would mean that "a large percentage of IAF's capital budget will be locked up."

On January 15, the IAF renewed its attack in a ministry meeting meant to review FGFA progress. It said the FGFA's engine was unreliable, radar was inadequate; stealth features were poor, India's work share being too low, and the price being too high. In a letter to the ministry, the IAF vice-chief raised 27 different objections to the FGFA.

Yet, in a baffling volte-face last year, the IAF proposed the PAK-FA be bought over-the-counter, rather than co-developing the FGFA. There was no official response to questions over why the IAF was willing to buy a fighter it had roundly criticised.

This resistance to the co-development also scuppered a Russian offer to co-develop a more powerful, fifth-generation engine for the FGFA. After roundly criticising the PAK-FA's AL-41F1 engines - upgraded versions of the Sukhoi-30MKI's AL-31FP engines, with 25 per cent more power - the IAF was ready to buy them in an over-the-counter sale.

The FGFA was once the IAF's future. Former defence minister AK Antony rebuffed the US-built fifth generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, saying India would have the FGFA. Indian planners viewed the FGFA as a launch pad for India's fifth generation fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).


Now, with the Rafale's astronomical cost, a cheaper R&D Contract for a "Make in India" FGFA could turn the spotlight back in the Indo-Russian fighter.

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2016/01/indian-russian-negotiators-agree-on.html

These MOD guys r real b&*ch. Russia and HAL cant leave each other for nxt 50 yrs that is a writing on the wall for future.

BTW article is from gr8 AS. whom we bhakts usually troll a lot on line. "So read at your own risk"

 

[kaykay]

IAF has no alternatives ( Some would argue about F-35s but its no alternative anyway). FGFA will go ahead for sure but expect delays to occur.

 

[bloo]

IF this article is to be believed then IAF should just shut the fukc up and let things happen as they are supposed to.
For decades now US defence contractors with the government have pushed inefficient weapons into their forces and have slowly debugged them over a period of years thereby strengthening their core R&D capabilities and eventually making these flawed weapons into masterpieces.
Why in all the worldly fukc can't we do it too?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Now, with the Rafale's astronomical cost, a cheaper R&D Contract for a "Make in India" FGFA could turn the spotlight back in the Indo-Russian fighter.

Actually its a eyeopener..
Hindu Dinakar Peri quotes Rafales at Rs 800 Crs all inclusive with weapons and India negotiating for another 20% discount on that price. Prez Hollande on record says its MII for next 40 years in an interview with TOI.

I had personally talked with few OEMs from french side who are setting up shops in India due to professional life of mine. The expected rpice range for Rafale produced in India all inclusive will be in the range of Rs 500-600 Crs depending upon orders. On top Rafale M without new orders will get shut in a decade max. So there is a plan being mooted that rafale M will be exclusively produced in India only. Such strategic negotiations are going on. and This guy writes something which as usual is a flame bait approach. On top France has proposed a joint AMCA development with all tech clearly bought from Rafale and Neuron. India is discussing this matter and will see if it fits their strategic vision.

Its even more strange that almost 10 years of spares and supply to the tune of almost 40% of the aircraft cost all inclusive is being bought upfront to maintain 90% availability.

Add such numbers to MKI and then quote whats its price. Comparing an apple and orange and using that to enrage people is beyond doubt a stupidity approach.

This resistance to the co-development also scuppered a Russian offer to co-develop a more powerful, fifth-generation engine for the FGFA. After roundly criticising the PAK-FA's AL-41F1 engines - upgraded versions of the Sukhoi-30MKI's AL-31FP engines, with 25 per cent more power - the IAF was ready to buy them in an over-the-counter sale.

I dont know what Mr Shukla drinks before writing. The new engine for Pakfa Stage 2 heart is still some years away. THe serial production of Pakfa stage 1 is being proposed from 2017-18 timeline in order to bridge the gap till stage 2 comes in. The serial production wont see humongous numbers rather it will be used to start the basic training , assimilation and strategy evolution along with critical infra setup till Stage 2 comes in.


Unless a pvt sector player comes in FGFA project, we are essentially doomed. HAL needs to do LCA, on top upgrading Sukhoi to Super 30 standard. It cried saying it does not have manpower for LCA MK2. Now from where it can do work on a much superior 5th Gen jet? If MOD continues with just HAL we are going to crash land. Unless its a JV with a credible name like TATA- HAL- SUkhoi types, FGFA for India will be a pipe dream.

 

[knight11]

Dear Ajay Shukla and co. glad to know your views how FGFA survives in the light of Rafale, however both the planes are apples and oranges and FGFA is the cheapest, safest and best option we have available for the 5th Gen. fighter plane. Rafale enter the IAF service due the two fact first, IAF was impressed with the Mirrage 2000 owing to its cheaper maintainace and high availability than the Russian planes and Rafale being MK2 follow through and second India want to diversify its weapons sources, thus don't want to put all its egg in one basket. However Russia would remain the major supplier to Indian Defense reason being high end tech. weapons available for India, and second the relatively cheaper in cost.

If we look at the 5th Gen fighter plane program in the world we have only 2 available option -- F35 and PakFA/FGFA and the former being linked with the BICA, CISMOA India would unlikely opt for the F-35 and second, high nos of weapons and spares being Russian and pilots fully comfortable with the Russian and the french weapons and equipment, FGFA weigh more than F-35.

 

[SUDIP]

Actually its a eyeopener..
Hindu Dinakar Peri quotes Rafales at Rs 800 Crs all inclusive with weapons and India negotiating for another 20% discount on that price. Prez Hollande on record says its MII for next 40 years in an interview with TOI.

I had personally talked with few OEMs from french side who are setting up shops in India due to professional life of mine. The expected rpice range for Rafale produced in India all inclusive will be in the range of Rs 500-600 Crs depending upon orders. On top Rafale M without new orders will get shut in a decade max. So there is a plan being mooted that rafale M will be exclusively produced in India only. Such strategic negotiations are going on. and This guy writes something which as usual is a flame bait approach. On top France has proposed a joint AMCA development with all tech clearly bought from Rafale and Neuron. India is discussing this matter and will see if it fits their strategic vision.

Its even more strange that almost 10 years of spares and supply to the tune of almost 40% of the aircraft cost all inclusive is being bought upfront to maintain 90% availability.

Add such numbers to MKI and then quote whats its price. Comparing an apple and orange and using that to enrage people is beyond doubt a stupidity approach.



I dont know what Mr Shukla drinks before writing. The new engine for Pakfa Stage 2 heart is still some years away. THe serial production of Pakfa stage 1 is being proposed from 2017-18 timeline in order to bridge the gap till stage 2 comes in. The serial production wont see humongous numbers rather it will be used to start the basic training , assimilation and strategy evolution along with critical infra setup till Stage 2 comes in.


Unless a pvt sector player comes in FGFA project, we are essentially doomed. HAL needs to do LCA, on top upgrading Sukhoi to Super 30 standard. It cried saying it does not have manpower for LCA MK2. Now from where it can do work on a much superior 5th Gen jet? If MOD continues with just HAL we are going to crash land. Unless its a JV with a credible name like TATA- HAL- SUkhoi types, FGFA for India will be a pipe dream.

Sir all your analysis are quite plausible but one thing i want to put here that all the big ticket acquisition (specially for IAF)
IAF always has a lesser say than the studs of MOD. There babus of MOD are the real game changer and Russia always has an upper hand to milk these babus. HAL right now has the strongest lobby capacity and friends in MOD than any other DPSU or pvt se in the country. No matter whose gov in center, how reluctant IAF, HAL will remain the monopoly of indian aerospace sector for nxt 4 decades. HAL can't afford to loose a thing like FGFA which will be a potential replacement product of SU30MKI , moreover Russia knows HAL, even better than GoI and IAF, they both were on the same page in any negotiation several times in the past. After all russia has build up HAL with many of their frontline products.

I doubt who gonna be the main assembler of Rafael in the future if dassault agrees to our terms.

 

[anant_s]

Cost is one issue, what happens to technical issues?

 

[[Bregs]]

This deal must go ahead as no one will share this technology with India except Russia

 

[C130]

IMO Russia views India more as irriate than a partner for Pak-FA FGFA, they'll gladly accept your money to develop the fighter, but India wanting work share and other things is problematic for Russia.


just let them do their thing.