Saffron Dalits and the swing of 24th April
Posted :
6:23 am, April 28, 2014 by
admin
24th April polling was possibly the toughest phase till now for the BJP this election season as they were facing pockets of resistance in all the key states. In Uttar Pradesh, after having over-performed in western-UP, moving towards central Uttar Pradesh in this phase where SP had its strongholds and pocket boroughs, BJP faced a critical test for the Modi wave. In Bihar, Seemachal was always going to be the tough phase because of four factors –
1) The internal dynamics of the party due to some ego clashes of local leadership and the usual ticket distribution shenanigans
2) Localized anti-incumbency against MPs from Seemanchal due to various factors
3) High percentage of Muslim concentration in this pocket giving the opposition parties an advantage, especially in a situation where the Muslim vote got consolidated behind one player, the Congress-RJD alliance
4) The perceived revival of the MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination which had possibly created some excitement in the secular-media complex
In Maharashtra, the Mumbai belt was always going to be the toughest because of the MNS-SS dynamics and the fact that Congress was now deeply entrenched here. Elsewhere in Tamil Nadu, BJP had for the first time created a 6 party alliance that was almost impossible to pull off but had created a third alternative to the two Dravidian options. The Odisha performance of the BJP needed to be replicated in newer geographies like TN to continue the momentum.
The neo-Dalit vote of 2014?
The ability of a wave to overcome obstacles and spread out into unforeseen territories is what redefines its strength. If ever there was any doubt about this being a wave election, then 24th of April seemed to have answered that question emphatically! When it met with resistance, the Modi wave twisted itself and moved into the Dalit territory on 24th of April to continue its march towards Dilli. Looks like this was a carefully calibrated plan on the part of the BJP-Sangh think-tank to up the ante among the Dalits, especially over the last couple of weeks, sensing the need for reinforcement.
- Sangh cadre in association with certain Dalit outfits have been distributing colour pamphlets and booklets all over UP and Bihar with the imagery of top BJP leadership along with Ambedkar which has made great symbolism
- Sangh workers are spending considerable time educating Dalits about how Ambedkar was betrayed by Congress in Maharashtra during elections and how he joined the Rajya Sabha from Bengal through the efforts of Shyama Prasad Mukherjee which has created a sense of historic relationship among a section of Dalits
- The joining of forces with Paswan’s LJP and Udit Raj has provided a big boost to BJP’s efforts in the heartland to woo Dalit voters, while RPI has also added that crucial vote-pocket in Maharashtra, especially in this crucial phase
- Modi himself being a backward and his agenda of development politics seems to have created a positive vibe among the Dalit voters who saw BJP as essentially a Brahmin-Baniya party in the heartland
- Some amount of polarization along the Hindu-Muslim fault-lines due to the western/Muzaffarnagar effect in UP and due to open clarion call by Mullahs Maulvis and even Muslim leadership of Seemanchal in Bihar seems to have percolated to the Dalit sections of the society too
- In the Kannauj-Etawah-Farrukhabad belt, Dalits look at SP as their main enemy and usually consolidate against Mulayam’s party, so possibly this time sensing that BJP is in the best position to defeat Mulayam, a large section of Dalits voted for the saffron outfit
- BSP’s lackluster performance in Western-UP and Mayawati losing the perception battle as a PM contender has dampened the spirits of Dalit workers who are probably shifting towards BJP as a logical choice in UP
Uttar Pradesh
Our sample size was 1334 spread across 12 assembly segments of 6 parliamentary seats out of the 12 that went to polls on 24th. We not only took adequate care to give representation to all the sections of the society along caste-religion lines but also ensured that the urban-rural divide is addressed suitably by choosing the swing polling booths after analyzing the electoral rolls.
- Since this was a phase that was almost a direct fight between BJP and SP, the vote polarization too was sharper than the previous phases
- Unlike the previous phases, Brahmin vote was almost totally favouring BJP here and BSP seems to have not found much traction despite a spirited campaign to woo this segment which had once stood behind Maya
- Yadavs who were till now voting for the BJP in sufficiently large numbers due to the OBC pitch by Modi seem to have consolidated behind Mulayam in this important SP bastion
- What is interesting is that a large enough section of Kurmis too seem to have chosen the SP over the BJP due to factors like Usha Verma, which may have some impact over key contests
- Unlike previous phases, Muslim votes are more-or-less consolidated behind SP
The bottom line of this phase in Uttar Pradesh was that SP was more-or-less holding on to its core MY (Muslim-Yadav) vote along with important subsections of the OBC votes like Kurmis, while BJP was getting the lion’s share of anti-Mulayam votes. The two x factors that may help BJP here in 2014 are almost total consolidation of upper caste votes and a significant chunk of Dalit votes which may potentially tilt the balance in BJP’s favour. For instance in seats like Kannauj, Firozabad and Hardoi, where SP had strong contenders like Dimple Yadav (CM Akhilesh’s wife) and Usha Verma, this united anti-Mulayam votes may produce some big surprises.
In Farrukhabad, where external affairs minister Salman Khurshid is contesting, surprisingly good performance by SP has made it very difficult to project an outcome. Mukesh Rajput of BJP may not have got full support from the local unit as he was seen as an out and out Kalyan Singh man. This is a seat that is witnessing an almost 4 cornered contest where Khurshid may probably end up either 3rd or 4th. Etawah is another interesting seat that is seeing a saffron revival. Mathura will probably produce a stunner as Jayant Chaudhary is trailing behind Hema Malini.
It must be remembered that whenever there has been high voter-turnout in this belt BJP has done extremely well. For instance, in 1998 when the Vajpayee wave swept this region with BJP winning 8 seats here, the voter turnout here was 56%, whereas in 2009 when SP won 6 out of 12 seats, turnout was an abysmal 47%. This time the historic turnout of 24th April, the highest ever in independent India, may spell doom to SP once again – seats like Firozabad, Kannauj, Fatehpur Sikri and Mathura have seen more than 60% voting this time. Higher voter turnout puts the whole MY combination of Mulayam at a disadvantage as non-Muslim-Yadav voters tend to out vote the Samajwadis.
Bihar
The one clear statistic that tells the story of Bihar is that Muslims aren’t voting for BJP/NDA any more, unlike the first two phases when BJP got a significant 18 to 22% vote share. In this phase Muslim vote polarization was very strong indeed. What this means is that RJD-Congress alliance is giving a big fight to NDA as Lalu still has sway on a significant number of Yadav votes. Will this fight back of Lalu and Congress be limited to this phase or will we see it fizzling out by Wednesday will tell us how many seats BJP will end up winning eventually in Bihar.
The one silver lining that BJP has in Bihar is that JDU is not completely missing in action, which has made the contest 3 cornered in at least some pockets. As a result of Nitish Kumar’s fight, BJP may benefit in an otherwise polarized atmosphere with high Muslim vote concentration in this region. On the morning of 24th as the voting process began, RJD-Congress looked like taking big leads everywhere, what made a big difference to the BJP is the Dalit vote. From our own raw data, out of 252 Dalits sampled on 24th from a total sample size of 1563 (16% representation to Dalits), a huge 121 of them have voted for BJP-NDA. That is a jaw dropping 48% of Dalit votes for BJP in raw data terms. Even at the height of RJB movement such a large number of Dalits are unlikely to have voted for BJP anywhere in the heartland, let alone Bihar. Although JDU is still getting significant numbers of Maha Dalit votes, this almost 50% backing to BJP+ will likely create tectonic shifts in heartland politics going forward. The reason for this could be two fold; 1) Dalits are weary of Yadavs and still fear the return of the Yadav jungle-raj of Lalu and 2) Paswan’s joining of NDA has made it that much more easier for an average Dalit voter to justify his/her saffronization.
