Indian Political Corner | All Updates & Discussions.
- Thread starter Hyde
- Start date
pursuit of happiness
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2014
- Messages
- 4,205
- Reaction score
- -5
- Country
- Location
jbond197
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2010
- Messages
- 7,300
- Reaction score
- -20
- Country
- Location
Saffron Dalits and the swing of 24th April
24th April polling was possibly the toughest phase till now for the BJP this election season as they were facing pockets of resistance in all the key states. In Uttar Pradesh, after having over-performed in western-UP, moving towards central Uttar Pradesh in this phase where SP had its strongholds and pocket boroughs, BJP faced a critical test for the Modi wave. In Bihar, Seemachal was always going to be the tough phase because of four factors –
1) The internal dynamics of the party due to some ego clashes of local leadership and the usual ticket distribution shenanigans
2) Localized anti-incumbency against MPs from Seemanchal due to various factors
3) High percentage of Muslim concentration in this pocket giving the opposition parties an advantage, especially in a situation where the Muslim vote got consolidated behind one player, the Congress-RJD alliance
4) The perceived revival of the MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination which had possibly created some excitement in the secular-media complex
In Maharashtra, the Mumbai belt was always going to be the toughest because of the MNS-SS dynamics and the fact that Congress was now deeply entrenched here. Elsewhere in Tamil Nadu, BJP had for the first time created a 6 party alliance that was almost impossible to pull off but had created a third alternative to the two Dravidian options. The Odisha performance of the BJP needed to be replicated in newer geographies like TN to continue the momentum.
The neo-Dalit vote of 2014?
The ability of a wave to overcome obstacles and spread out into unforeseen territories is what redefines its strength. If ever there was any doubt about this being a wave election, then 24th of April seemed to have answered that question emphatically! When it met with resistance, the Modi wave twisted itself and moved into the Dalit territory on 24th of April to continue its march towards Dilli. Looks like this was a carefully calibrated plan on the part of the BJP-Sangh think-tank to up the ante among the Dalits, especially over the last couple of weeks, sensing the need for reinforcement.
Our sample size was 1334 spread across 12 assembly segments of 6 parliamentary seats out of the 12 that went to polls on 24th. We not only took adequate care to give representation to all the sections of the society along caste-religion lines but also ensured that the urban-rural divide is addressed suitably by choosing the swing polling booths after analyzing the electoral rolls.
In Farrukhabad, where external affairs minister Salman Khurshid is contesting, surprisingly good performance by SP has made it very difficult to project an outcome. Mukesh Rajput of BJP may not have got full support from the local unit as he was seen as an out and out Kalyan Singh man. This is a seat that is witnessing an almost 4 cornered contest where Khurshid may probably end up either 3rd or 4th. Etawah is another interesting seat that is seeing a saffron revival. Mathura will probably produce a stunner as Jayant Chaudhary is trailing behind Hema Malini.
It must be remembered that whenever there has been high voter-turnout in this belt BJP has done extremely well. For instance, in 1998 when the Vajpayee wave swept this region with BJP winning 8 seats here, the voter turnout here was 56%, whereas in 2009 when SP won 6 out of 12 seats, turnout was an abysmal 47%. This time the historic turnout of 24th April, the highest ever in independent India, may spell doom to SP once again – seats like Firozabad, Kannauj, Fatehpur Sikri and Mathura have seen more than 60% voting this time. Higher voter turnout puts the whole MY combination of Mulayam at a disadvantage as non-Muslim-Yadav voters tend to out vote the Samajwadis.
Bihar
The one clear statistic that tells the story of Bihar is that Muslims aren’t voting for BJP/NDA any more, unlike the first two phases when BJP got a significant 18 to 22% vote share. In this phase Muslim vote polarization was very strong indeed. What this means is that RJD-Congress alliance is giving a big fight to NDA as Lalu still has sway on a significant number of Yadav votes. Will this fight back of Lalu and Congress be limited to this phase or will we see it fizzling out by Wednesday will tell us how many seats BJP will end up winning eventually in Bihar.
The one silver lining that BJP has in Bihar is that JDU is not completely missing in action, which has made the contest 3 cornered in at least some pockets. As a result of Nitish Kumar’s fight, BJP may benefit in an otherwise polarized atmosphere with high Muslim vote concentration in this region. On the morning of 24th as the voting process began, RJD-Congress looked like taking big leads everywhere, what made a big difference to the BJP is the Dalit vote. From our own raw data, out of 252 Dalits sampled on 24th from a total sample size of 1563 (16% representation to Dalits), a huge 121 of them have voted for BJP-NDA. That is a jaw dropping 48% of Dalit votes for BJP in raw data terms. Even at the height of RJB movement such a large number of Dalits are unlikely to have voted for BJP anywhere in the heartland, let alone Bihar. Although JDU is still getting significant numbers of Maha Dalit votes, this almost 50% backing to BJP+ will likely create tectonic shifts in heartland politics going forward. The reason for this could be two fold; 1) Dalits are weary of Yadavs and still fear the return of the Yadav jungle-raj of Lalu and 2) Paswan’s joining of NDA has made it that much more easier for an average Dalit voter to justify his/her saffronization.
Maharashtra
Among the 6 seats of Mumbai, BJP-SS seems to be ahead in 5 – 4 of them substantially and 1 (Mumbai South) with a lower margin as Deora was actually leading in the morning but seems to have lost the race by late afternoon. All over Mumbai, Muslim consolidation is almost near 100% behind Congress-NCP, but what is important is the division of Brahmin-Marathi votes that had happened in 2009 to give the UPA a clean-sweep. This time, MNS is not contesting against the BJP and even where it has put up candidates, it doesn’t seem to have the same traction as last time.
Probably the biggest x factor of 2014 Mumbai is RPI, which is shifting a huge Dalit dimension to the BJP-SS alliance in Mumbai. This small section of addendum votes will make the difference between winning and losing in the end, so much so that in the case of Mumbai at least, Athawale is a bigger asset to NDA than probably Modi himself. This Maratha Manus-Dalit combo has the capacity to sink Congress and Pawar not just in 2014 but for a long time to come if it can be sustained. Also, RPI probably has brought to the table a set of votes that give a respite to the saffron alliance from the MNS onslaught by compensating for lost votes. Although voter deletion per se is not an issue that should have any impact on our data as sampling is done on the day of voting among the voters who have already voted, yet one important aspect that cannot be understated is that Dalit voters could have easily covered any potential losses if the selective deleting rumours of BJP-SS are true.
Overall in other parts of Maharashtra, the BJP+ juggernaut continues to make waves and this could be a historic election for the saffron alliance as it may potentially bring the highest tally ever. This is an election wherein Maharashtra is undergoing a major change possibly for the first time after independence, for even those pockets that certain local chieftains controlled in every election are under attack. If in the previous phase we saw Sangli and the sugar belt being saffronized, this time it is the turn of 9 time MP Manikrao Gavit who is facing the battle of his life against a 26 year old Heena Gavit, the daughter of recently sacked education minister, Vijay Kumar Gavit of NCP. Nandurbar is really witnessing a tight race and as per our numbers on polling day BJP is actually ahead here!
Apart from Nadurbar, in the Dhule-Jalgaon belt, NDA is virtually sweeping the polls, whereas even in Aurangabad region it is doing exceedingly well. A serious contest is only seen in the region surrounding Mumbai and Palghar. In all, this could well be the election that changes the course of Maharashtrian politics forever. A positive swing of 6% can be huge in parliamentary elections helping the NDA sweep Mumbai and this part of Maharashtra. What has aided the swing seems to be mostly the lackluster performance of MNS and some anti-incumbency against Congress led governments of both the state and the centre.
Overall Projections for 24 April
@arp2041 @jha and others..
24th April polling was possibly the toughest phase till now for the BJP this election season as they were facing pockets of resistance in all the key states. In Uttar Pradesh, after having over-performed in western-UP, moving towards central Uttar Pradesh in this phase where SP had its strongholds and pocket boroughs, BJP faced a critical test for the Modi wave. In Bihar, Seemachal was always going to be the tough phase because of four factors –
1) The internal dynamics of the party due to some ego clashes of local leadership and the usual ticket distribution shenanigans
2) Localized anti-incumbency against MPs from Seemanchal due to various factors
3) High percentage of Muslim concentration in this pocket giving the opposition parties an advantage, especially in a situation where the Muslim vote got consolidated behind one player, the Congress-RJD alliance
4) The perceived revival of the MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination which had possibly created some excitement in the secular-media complex
In Maharashtra, the Mumbai belt was always going to be the toughest because of the MNS-SS dynamics and the fact that Congress was now deeply entrenched here. Elsewhere in Tamil Nadu, BJP had for the first time created a 6 party alliance that was almost impossible to pull off but had created a third alternative to the two Dravidian options. The Odisha performance of the BJP needed to be replicated in newer geographies like TN to continue the momentum.
The neo-Dalit vote of 2014?
The ability of a wave to overcome obstacles and spread out into unforeseen territories is what redefines its strength. If ever there was any doubt about this being a wave election, then 24th of April seemed to have answered that question emphatically! When it met with resistance, the Modi wave twisted itself and moved into the Dalit territory on 24th of April to continue its march towards Dilli. Looks like this was a carefully calibrated plan on the part of the BJP-Sangh think-tank to up the ante among the Dalits, especially over the last couple of weeks, sensing the need for reinforcement.
- Sangh cadre in association with certain Dalit outfits have been distributing colour pamphlets and booklets all over UP and Bihar with the imagery of top BJP leadership along with Ambedkar which has made great symbolism
- Sangh workers are spending considerable time educating Dalits about how Ambedkar was betrayed by Congress in Maharashtra during elections and how he joined the Rajya Sabha from Bengal through the efforts of Shyama Prasad Mukherjee which has created a sense of historic relationship among a section of Dalits
- The joining of forces with Paswan’s LJP and Udit Raj has provided a big boost to BJP’s efforts in the heartland to woo Dalit voters, while RPI has also added that crucial vote-pocket in Maharashtra, especially in this crucial phase
- Modi himself being a backward and his agenda of development politics seems to have created a positive vibe among the Dalit voters who saw BJP as essentially a Brahmin-Baniya party in the heartland
- Some amount of polarization along the Hindu-Muslim fault-lines due to the western/Muzaffarnagar effect in UP and due to open clarion call by Mullahs Maulvis and even Muslim leadership of Seemanchal in Bihar seems to have percolated to the Dalit sections of the society too
- In the Kannauj-Etawah-Farrukhabad belt, Dalits look at SP as their main enemy and usually consolidate against Mulayam’s party, so possibly this time sensing that BJP is in the best position to defeat Mulayam, a large section of Dalits voted for the saffron outfit
- BSP’s lackluster performance in Western-UP and Mayawati losing the perception battle as a PM contender has dampened the spirits of Dalit workers who are probably shifting towards BJP as a logical choice in UP
Our sample size was 1334 spread across 12 assembly segments of 6 parliamentary seats out of the 12 that went to polls on 24th. We not only took adequate care to give representation to all the sections of the society along caste-religion lines but also ensured that the urban-rural divide is addressed suitably by choosing the swing polling booths after analyzing the electoral rolls.
- Since this was a phase that was almost a direct fight between BJP and SP, the vote polarization too was sharper than the previous phases
- Unlike the previous phases, Brahmin vote was almost totally favouring BJP here and BSP seems to have not found much traction despite a spirited campaign to woo this segment which had once stood behind Maya
- Yadavs who were till now voting for the BJP in sufficiently large numbers due to the OBC pitch by Modi seem to have consolidated behind Mulayam in this important SP bastion
- What is interesting is that a large enough section of Kurmis too seem to have chosen the SP over the BJP due to factors like Usha Verma, which may have some impact over key contests
- Unlike previous phases, Muslim votes are more-or-less consolidated behind SP
In Farrukhabad, where external affairs minister Salman Khurshid is contesting, surprisingly good performance by SP has made it very difficult to project an outcome. Mukesh Rajput of BJP may not have got full support from the local unit as he was seen as an out and out Kalyan Singh man. This is a seat that is witnessing an almost 4 cornered contest where Khurshid may probably end up either 3rd or 4th. Etawah is another interesting seat that is seeing a saffron revival. Mathura will probably produce a stunner as Jayant Chaudhary is trailing behind Hema Malini.
It must be remembered that whenever there has been high voter-turnout in this belt BJP has done extremely well. For instance, in 1998 when the Vajpayee wave swept this region with BJP winning 8 seats here, the voter turnout here was 56%, whereas in 2009 when SP won 6 out of 12 seats, turnout was an abysmal 47%. This time the historic turnout of 24th April, the highest ever in independent India, may spell doom to SP once again – seats like Firozabad, Kannauj, Fatehpur Sikri and Mathura have seen more than 60% voting this time. Higher voter turnout puts the whole MY combination of Mulayam at a disadvantage as non-Muslim-Yadav voters tend to out vote the Samajwadis.
Bihar
The one clear statistic that tells the story of Bihar is that Muslims aren’t voting for BJP/NDA any more, unlike the first two phases when BJP got a significant 18 to 22% vote share. In this phase Muslim vote polarization was very strong indeed. What this means is that RJD-Congress alliance is giving a big fight to NDA as Lalu still has sway on a significant number of Yadav votes. Will this fight back of Lalu and Congress be limited to this phase or will we see it fizzling out by Wednesday will tell us how many seats BJP will end up winning eventually in Bihar.
The one silver lining that BJP has in Bihar is that JDU is not completely missing in action, which has made the contest 3 cornered in at least some pockets. As a result of Nitish Kumar’s fight, BJP may benefit in an otherwise polarized atmosphere with high Muslim vote concentration in this region. On the morning of 24th as the voting process began, RJD-Congress looked like taking big leads everywhere, what made a big difference to the BJP is the Dalit vote. From our own raw data, out of 252 Dalits sampled on 24th from a total sample size of 1563 (16% representation to Dalits), a huge 121 of them have voted for BJP-NDA. That is a jaw dropping 48% of Dalit votes for BJP in raw data terms. Even at the height of RJB movement such a large number of Dalits are unlikely to have voted for BJP anywhere in the heartland, let alone Bihar. Although JDU is still getting significant numbers of Maha Dalit votes, this almost 50% backing to BJP+ will likely create tectonic shifts in heartland politics going forward. The reason for this could be two fold; 1) Dalits are weary of Yadavs and still fear the return of the Yadav jungle-raj of Lalu and 2) Paswan’s joining of NDA has made it that much more easier for an average Dalit voter to justify his/her saffronization.
Maharashtra
Among the 6 seats of Mumbai, BJP-SS seems to be ahead in 5 – 4 of them substantially and 1 (Mumbai South) with a lower margin as Deora was actually leading in the morning but seems to have lost the race by late afternoon. All over Mumbai, Muslim consolidation is almost near 100% behind Congress-NCP, but what is important is the division of Brahmin-Marathi votes that had happened in 2009 to give the UPA a clean-sweep. This time, MNS is not contesting against the BJP and even where it has put up candidates, it doesn’t seem to have the same traction as last time.
Probably the biggest x factor of 2014 Mumbai is RPI, which is shifting a huge Dalit dimension to the BJP-SS alliance in Mumbai. This small section of addendum votes will make the difference between winning and losing in the end, so much so that in the case of Mumbai at least, Athawale is a bigger asset to NDA than probably Modi himself. This Maratha Manus-Dalit combo has the capacity to sink Congress and Pawar not just in 2014 but for a long time to come if it can be sustained. Also, RPI probably has brought to the table a set of votes that give a respite to the saffron alliance from the MNS onslaught by compensating for lost votes. Although voter deletion per se is not an issue that should have any impact on our data as sampling is done on the day of voting among the voters who have already voted, yet one important aspect that cannot be understated is that Dalit voters could have easily covered any potential losses if the selective deleting rumours of BJP-SS are true.
Overall in other parts of Maharashtra, the BJP+ juggernaut continues to make waves and this could be a historic election for the saffron alliance as it may potentially bring the highest tally ever. This is an election wherein Maharashtra is undergoing a major change possibly for the first time after independence, for even those pockets that certain local chieftains controlled in every election are under attack. If in the previous phase we saw Sangli and the sugar belt being saffronized, this time it is the turn of 9 time MP Manikrao Gavit who is facing the battle of his life against a 26 year old Heena Gavit, the daughter of recently sacked education minister, Vijay Kumar Gavit of NCP. Nandurbar is really witnessing a tight race and as per our numbers on polling day BJP is actually ahead here!
Apart from Nadurbar, in the Dhule-Jalgaon belt, NDA is virtually sweeping the polls, whereas even in Aurangabad region it is doing exceedingly well. A serious contest is only seen in the region surrounding Mumbai and Palghar. In all, this could well be the election that changes the course of Maharashtrian politics forever. A positive swing of 6% can be huge in parliamentary elections helping the NDA sweep Mumbai and this part of Maharashtra. What has aided the swing seems to be mostly the lackluster performance of MNS and some anti-incumbency against Congress led governments of both the state and the centre.
Overall Projections for 24 April
@arp2041 @jha and others..
Proud Hindu
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2014
- Messages
- 259
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
Mumbai BJP cadres to campaign for Narendra Modi, Rajnath Singh, Smriti Irani in UP
MUMBAI: With the conclusion of three-phase elections in Maharashtra on Thursday, BJP has now focused its attention on Varanasi on Uttar Pradesh where a high-stake battle is on between the party's PM nominee Narendra Modi and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal.
Around 250 workers of BJP from Mumbai would be leaving forthe holy city tomorrow to campaign for Modi.
"Around 200-250 party cadres--mostly north Indians- will leave tomorrow for Varanasi. We will campaign for Modiji there. The campaigning will be done in Varanasi, besides in neighbouring areas," said vice-president of the state party unit J P Thakur.
The BJP cadres will also campaign in Purvanchal region of Mirzapur, Jaunpur, Gazipur, Azamgarh, Gorakhpur, Chandauli and Rohidas Nagar, he said.
Another party functionary said the party workers would also campaign for the party's candidate from Amethi Smriti Irani and party chief Rajnath Singh who is in fray in Lucknow.
aravakurichi came to vote wearing his wife nighty - पत्नी की नाइटी पहनकर पहुंचा वोट देने - Amar Ujala
MUMBAI: With the conclusion of three-phase elections in Maharashtra on Thursday, BJP has now focused its attention on Varanasi on Uttar Pradesh where a high-stake battle is on between the party's PM nominee Narendra Modi and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal.
Around 250 workers of BJP from Mumbai would be leaving forthe holy city tomorrow to campaign for Modi.
"Around 200-250 party cadres--mostly north Indians- will leave tomorrow for Varanasi. We will campaign for Modiji there. The campaigning will be done in Varanasi, besides in neighbouring areas," said vice-president of the state party unit J P Thakur.
The BJP cadres will also campaign in Purvanchal region of Mirzapur, Jaunpur, Gazipur, Azamgarh, Gorakhpur, Chandauli and Rohidas Nagar, he said.
Another party functionary said the party workers would also campaign for the party's candidate from Amethi Smriti Irani and party chief Rajnath Singh who is in fray in Lucknow.
aravakurichi came to vote wearing his wife nighty - पत्नी की नाइटी पहनकर पहुंचा वोट देने - Amar Ujala
Last edited:
kurup
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 10, 2012
- Messages
- 10,563
- Reaction score
- -2
- Country
- Location
He is working abroad ...... so no vote .
Star Wars
BANNED
- Joined
- Jan 7, 2013
- Messages
- 12,446
- Reaction score
- -14
- Country
- Location
Proud Hindu
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2014
- Messages
- 259
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
Robinhood Pandey
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2013
- Messages
- 5,580
- Reaction score
- 0
- Country
- Location
pursuit of happiness
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2014
- Messages
- 4,205
- Reaction score
- -5
- Country
- Location
--
dikhave mat jaoo..
appni akal aajmavo..
atleast he wore somthing that imp
nahi to
pant shirt trousars pehenke bhi vote nahi karte..
--
arp2041
BANNED
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2012
- Messages
- 10,406
- Reaction score
- -9
- Country
- Location
pursuit of happiness
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2014
- Messages
- 4,205
- Reaction score
- -5
- Country
- Location
--MORNING & in wife's nighty.......wondering what WOOD have happened
think.. even then he came .. a nationalist guy..
knows his priority
kurup
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 10, 2012
- Messages
- 10,563
- Reaction score
- -2
- Country
- Location
MORNING & in wife's nighty.......wondering what WOOD have happened
After that his wife will come and vote in a lungi ...... that's what happened ....
pursuit of happiness
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2014
- Messages
- 4,205
- Reaction score
- -5
- Country
- Location
--After that his wife will come and vote in a lungi ...... that's what happened ....
lungi dance..
kurup
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Jun 10, 2012
- Messages
- 10,563
- Reaction score
- -2
- Country
- Location
pursuit of happiness
SENIOR MEMBER
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2014
- Messages
- 4,205
- Reaction score
- -5
- Country
- Location
April fool coming so more jokes like this
Akhilesh Yadav defends Robert Vadra, calls Modi a 'model of dividing India' - The Times of India
Akhilesh Yadav defends Robert Vadra, calls Modi a 'model of dividing India'
dance interrupted as dancer is voting. will resume soon..
rukavat ke khed hai
Akhilesh Yadav defends Robert Vadra, calls Modi a 'model of dividing India' - The Times of India
Akhilesh Yadav defends Robert Vadra, calls Modi a 'model of dividing India'
--on a bed ... in the morning ....
dance interrupted as dancer is voting. will resume soon..
rukavat ke khed hai
Similar threads
