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This time NDA has fewer but time tested allies and most important thing ie. core of NDA which is BJP will have more seats than what it had during 12th LS polls.
Anyway if Congress with 206 seat can provide stable government then BJP with 217 too can. Three new cases has been lodged by CBI against BSP due to irregularities in NAREGA during 2007.
Others ie independents too will play important role since they won't want to waste more money for their re election in new polls. But then also NDA will need 300+ seats to effectively run the government.
240(NDA)+15(INDEPENDENTS)+8(TDP)+15(BSP)+1-2(AGP)=280
MNS(1-2) too can be added
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Third Front takes shape, but Naveen Patnaik distances himself - The Times of India
@anonymus these can be after polls allies. BJD is progressive party while AGP can become pre poll ally.
@anonymus these can be after polls allies. BJD is progressive party while AGP can become pre poll ally.
Peaceful Civilian
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I think BJP will get 300 seats
200 seats for Congress
50 seats for Aam Aadmi party
200 seats for Congress
50 seats for Aam Aadmi party
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cloud_9
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Congress will get somewhere close to 100 seats,AAP will be less than 10.
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2 days ago a poll survey was giving just 78 seats to congress .
Lowest since 1947.
pura waat laga diya na Congress ka!! 
anonymus
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Dude, while congress had 206 seats, core UPA had 262 seats, just 10 short of majority.
Also chances of Independents getting 15 seats is slim. and BSP getting 15 would mean that BJP would be getting less than 200 seats!!
MNS is a useless party which could not get even a single seat on it's own but could wreck chances of NDA by cutting into vote share of both BJP and Shiv sena.
Overall, the situation seems shittier, even in best case scenario.
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BJP is getting only 35 seats in UP out of those 217 seats as per recent servey. So , who will get remaining 45 seats ??
Agreed about MNS.
If BJP doesn't form government then polls will be held again and voters are generally seen to favour single largest party in such re polls. So chill.It' not shiity.
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DMDK to sign poll deal with BJP
CHENNAI: DMDK is all set to ink a deal with BJP for the Lok Sabha elections and talks are on to finalise the number of seats. While DMDK chief Vijayakanth and his wife Premalatha are in Singapore, the party's youth wing secretary and the actor's brother-in-law L K Sudheesh met an emissary of Narendra Modi on Monday at a Chennai hotel and conveyed that his leader has agreed to an alliance, sources said.
"Currently, we are holding discussions to finalise an alliance with BJP. The number of seats and the names of constituencies will be discussed later," a highly-placed source in DMDK told TOI. The source denied speculations that DMDK was probing alliance possibilities with Congress and DMK.
While Vijayakanth is expected to return to Chennai on March 3, BJP may wrap up the talks by February 27 as it is keen to announce its first list of candidates across the country. BJP sources, too, confirmed the development. The party is negotiating with PMK as well.
A senior leader in the state BJP unit said the hitch over allocation of seats for DMDK and PMK is likely to be sorted out with offers of Rajya Sabha seats to both parties. "Now that DMDK has confirmed its participation in our alliance, we will ensure that it is allotted the highest number of seats," the BJP leader said. Sources say DMDK has reduced its demand from 19 to 14 seats and BJP has agreed to give it 12.
BJP's negotiators are holding talks with PMK on its preferred constituencies. "PMK leaders are not ready to give up any of the constituencies for which they have announced candidates," a BJP leader said. PMK had earlier released a list of 10 candidates under the banner of the Social Democratic Alliance (SDA), which includes some caste groups. But BJP and DMDK have sought seven of the constituencies on the PMK list.
"We have already announced candidates for these constituencies and promised to allot some seats for leaders of various caste groups. So we need at least four more seats for them. We have urged BJP to allot 14 seats to SDA," said a PMK candidate. "Now, they are putting pressure on us to give up seven seats. They are also asking for Dharmapuri from where our leader Anbumani is likely to be fielded," he said.
A member of BJP's seat-sharing committee said the party has been trying to convince PMK to make adjustments. "We expect our partners to compromise on a few issues in the interest of a stronger alliance," said the BJP leader.
CHENNAI: DMDK is all set to ink a deal with BJP for the Lok Sabha elections and talks are on to finalise the number of seats. While DMDK chief Vijayakanth and his wife Premalatha are in Singapore, the party's youth wing secretary and the actor's brother-in-law L K Sudheesh met an emissary of Narendra Modi on Monday at a Chennai hotel and conveyed that his leader has agreed to an alliance, sources said.
"Currently, we are holding discussions to finalise an alliance with BJP. The number of seats and the names of constituencies will be discussed later," a highly-placed source in DMDK told TOI. The source denied speculations that DMDK was probing alliance possibilities with Congress and DMK.
While Vijayakanth is expected to return to Chennai on March 3, BJP may wrap up the talks by February 27 as it is keen to announce its first list of candidates across the country. BJP sources, too, confirmed the development. The party is negotiating with PMK as well.
A senior leader in the state BJP unit said the hitch over allocation of seats for DMDK and PMK is likely to be sorted out with offers of Rajya Sabha seats to both parties. "Now that DMDK has confirmed its participation in our alliance, we will ensure that it is allotted the highest number of seats," the BJP leader said. Sources say DMDK has reduced its demand from 19 to 14 seats and BJP has agreed to give it 12.
BJP's negotiators are holding talks with PMK on its preferred constituencies. "PMK leaders are not ready to give up any of the constituencies for which they have announced candidates," a BJP leader said. PMK had earlier released a list of 10 candidates under the banner of the Social Democratic Alliance (SDA), which includes some caste groups. But BJP and DMDK have sought seven of the constituencies on the PMK list.
"We have already announced candidates for these constituencies and promised to allot some seats for leaders of various caste groups. So we need at least four more seats for them. We have urged BJP to allot 14 seats to SDA," said a PMK candidate. "Now, they are putting pressure on us to give up seven seats. They are also asking for Dharmapuri from where our leader Anbumani is likely to be fielded," he said.
A member of BJP's seat-sharing committee said the party has been trying to convince PMK to make adjustments. "We expect our partners to compromise on a few issues in the interest of a stronger alliance," said the BJP leader.
anonymus
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I thought BJP would be getting close to 45 seats in UP. From the mood prevalent in UP, SP and Congress would get less single digit with rest being split between BJP and BSP.
But
BSP on support of it's core base could not win more than 10 seats. Anymore than that means that muslims are deserting SP for BSP and BSP would not be in a position to support NDA.
thesolar65
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GreenFoe
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Your assumptions are fairly correct in sense of a pakistani because on this forum and in pakistan only three parties are visible
BUT that's not the scenario,india is dominated by state level regional parties and in last 20 years BJP+CONG added tally has come down
1991 : Cong 244+BJP 120=364/543
1996 Cong 140+BJP 161=301/543
1998 Cong 141+BJP 182=323/543
1999 Cong 114+BJP 182=296/543
2004 Cong145+BJP 138=283/543
2009 Cong 206+BJP 116=322/543
So BJP and cong are in FIGHT in 350 seats and whatever AAP gets it will be from these seats because like bjp in early 1980's its a delhi based party.
If Cong Gets 100,BJP will be around 200
If cong gets 80,BJP is 220-230
If cong gets <80 ,BJP is 240+
Highest EVER for bjp is 182 (when vajpayee was its head)
Same is the scenario with AAP,but more damage it will do to bjp because bjp would have won those who this party wants to win.
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jbond197
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if alliance of DMDK+PMK+DMK+BJP+others is established in Tamil nadu then I am sure it will get at least 5-10 seats. Udit Raj's in BJP will help pull Dalit votes in UP and else where. This could give at least 5 seats more. alliance with LJP in Bihar can brind few more seats in Bihar. So NDA's final numbers now would be 236(based on last survey)+5-10(TN)+5(UP)+5(Bihar) = 251 to 256. TDP and AGP are most likely to join NDA so if TDP gets 10 and AGP 2. The NDA number would reach 263 to 268. Once NDA has this kind of number it will be easily to attract independents and other allies like TMC, BJD etc.
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