H
He has a very good chance of losing to the BJP guy.
you mean Vijay Choudri or NDA ?
BTW, what is the voter turn out, as compared to last election ? Higher turn out could mean Anti incumbency
He won't, If Modi wins in Bihar then he will be more powerful than anyone in RSS has ever been till date. The guy does not like Modi one bit....
Bihar polls: RJD workers thrash woman, her son for voting for BJP - News18.com
@JanjaWeed @Darmashkian @Echo_419 
See I am not very keen on what the bookies have said regarding Bihar, firstly they got Delhi wrong & secondly many of the smart ones are staying away from Bihar after Delhi & seeing the fact that Bihar is a pollster's nighmare!
But please continue to keep me updated on the rates of the satta market, when I get to know that the smart ones are back in action, I will start believing them
This Nitish is popular among women is another urban legend ( or, rural legend ?
).. In rural areas, family votes for single party. Nitish was getting women's votes in Bihar because he was laso getting votes of that woman's husband/son.
In odd places, Bhumihars and Rajputs have voted for MGB. Likewise some Yadavs ahve voted for BJP+. Consolidation of Yadavs against BJP+ is largely existing. Pappu Yadav has made some dents but its effect is not yet clear. So Game is On boss.
And Yes, Bhagwat should shut the f**k up. Most of the RSS Shakhas in Bihar will fold if BJP looses. People are joing RSS because of Modi not because of him.
MGB leaders. Nitish's close man from Banka. He was very sober last night and talked a lot. Yadavs are voting for JDU+Congress, Congress suporters and Kurmis are not so solidly voting for RJD.
If BJP touches 20, then majority pakka. I have counted 15 (16-1 to be safe ). Even that leaves MGB 2-3 seats behind their target.
I Disagree, NiKu is popular among women, maybe not all but many of them still like him. & this has been told to me not by 5forty3 but by some Biharis too
BUT that does not mean they will vote for him, because of the alliance with Lalu+the above reason you stated.
Rajputs voting for all parties of the MGB is understandable, there are still some rajput leaders in the RJD.
But not Bhumihars. I don't see Bhumihars voting for RJD at all, but for the JDU & the COngress.
@Echo_419 @magudi As I said in my previous posts, Yadav votes have been effectively transferred to the others, but getting JDU votes to transfer to RJD is very tough!
@saurav 's post proves my point
& regarding Mohan Bhagwat's statements I have my own suspicions which I won;t state here
Did you know the Congress guy from Bhagalpur, Ajeet Sharma is Neha Sharma's (bollywood actress) dad?
And no he is not gonna win, Bhumihar's have very little vote in Bhagalpur city, and everyone else hates Bhumihars, including other Upper castes and Bhumihars themselves
Bhagalpur will go to BJP, it has a very strong Marwadi/Baniya base and they all vote for BJP regardless of the candidate. Arijit Sashwat ( Ashwini Choubey's son) is a good candidate.
Let me show you a few tweets from a person who has a very good idea of the on ground situation in Bihar
There has been severe infighting in the Bhagalapur BJP, I even posted an article on infighting in Bihar BJP a few days back. Bhagalpur was among the constituencies named where it was sever. The BJP guy will lose
Honestly,I don't know & not only AK but every minister in the UPA has dirt on him.I don't know why they aren't going against every single one of them with full force.
Really Good question.
First Blood Drawn in Bihar
The Neo X Factor – Who is the silent voter? The 130+ castes in Bihar which belong to the extremely backward category or the EBC is touted to be the kingmaker and rightfully so.
However as mentioned, these are over 130 groups. The Nishad group, comprising more than 20 communities of boatmen and fishermen, alone form over 1/3rd of this group. With Ajay Nishad in the fold and the son of Mallah ‘Mukesh Sahni’ supporting NDA, could prove to be the X factor in these elections. Mukesh represents the Mallah community which forms over 5% of Bihar’s population. His ambitions have driven him from one alliance to the other. For short term, this could prove to be the difference for NDA in a tightly contested election. After Narendra Modi, Mukesh Sahni is much in demand for rallies among the NDA partners. Sahni has already made an impact in Samastipur and Nawada for the NDA.
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Nitish Kumar made 2 big mistakes regarding the Mallah/Nishad community!!
- First was lathicharging members of a caste organisation of this community a few weeks back in Patna
- Second, was not taking this guy in the JDU when he had the chance to do so! He was in close talks with some JDU leaders; If not for a squabble regarding candidates he would have been campaigning alongside Nitish Kumar
@saurav @Darmashkian Word going around twitter circles that LJP may get more seats that RJD in phase 1.. Whats your view ?
Unlike
@saurav I don't believe it, RJD has a stronger org. than the JDU,Cong & even the LJP.
TBH RJD may get single digits, but they will still get more than LJP. LJP is an ally & those who wish to vote for the BJP may not be keen on voting for Paswan's party.
BJP should do a operation Kamal on him !
