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Echo_419
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Honestly,I don't know & not only AK but every minister in the UPA has dirt on him.I don't know why they aren't going against every single one of them with full force.
bit too much....
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Mate over here u r absolutely wrong and ill informed, I wud say a little amateurish.
With no offense to any one, There hardly anybody in this forum (few r der) who can understand the subtle nuances of the relation between sangh and bjp. As for most of us as an armchair political scientists it is really difficult to trace the coordination level between sangha and party. I am not saying whatever Rss is saying is writing on the wall and BJP gov sud follow it, i just want to describe the correlation betn them. Without disclosing my identity much what i cant do here I am pointing out some of the points regarding this
- I came from a state where RSS and BJP exits since last 4 decades but not much influential, yahh 15-20 mla 2-3 mp on your own has been achieved but not more than that, and also these two never want to grow bcoz 96% of the population is Hindu and very less anti incumbency since last 16 yrs.
- I can still remember how i bribed a local drunken bjp leader to mollify him in support of a candidate chosen by local sangh pracharak in a municipal level election in 2012. He was an union leader of sweeper association and got some 1000 votes in hand in 4 booths and how a state bjp chief involved in the murder of a popular sangha leader who got some 1 lac voters in his book. So the infighting was always der and it will be there betn organization, party and high command and coordination starts in between these infighting and differences. Sometime party gets benefits out of it , sometime it has to bear the loss.
- Organizing a group of people to do a work and wining an election in a democracy is two very different work. But most of the time the later required the earlier.
- RSS is a 90 yr old organization it had already dealt single handedly with many power centers with its profound political strategy than BJP had itself. It never became worried abt its growth bcoz its growth is organic. Moreover the people who percolates its ideology are out of box, and zero materialistic, so its doent need even much of monetary or funds support to do its organizational work. voluntary contribution is enough for its day to day work.
- But yes it has a predilections to "Power" as its full time pracharaks sacrifices everything in the life to do the work of RSS, in return they want at the least to be a king maker not even king himself. and this eagerness turns furious when somebody tries to attack the existance of this organisation, at least as per wht history has told us.
- It had became so after the "Death of gandhi", "During emergency", "during mandal" and finally when after that bitch sonio tries to paint it as a "Hindu Terror" outfit during 26/11 and 2009 defeat worked as a catalyst in all this.
- Most imp point " From " Jansangh" a party of brahmins and UC to BJP in 90ies as a party of baniya and traders to BJP after 2009 with many OBCs in its fold to a BJP now with even dalits, MBCs EBCs and muslims. All have been possible due to Sangh's social penetration to this groups. How RSS helps BJP its quiet fathomable but once @magudi exactly pointed out this thing with a Rajyasabha tv debate video, that could be a perfect example IMO. Rss itself always an arbitrator for hindu unity irrespective of cast, colour and creed even somtime religion (goa and muslim rastiya manch) but yes it always an admirer of brahmans for their sheer intelligence and wit, bt it has no relevance in present rss format. .
- Many people say modi had sidelined rss in gujrat, no complete wrong. Yes he had ousted the influence of VHP and praveen togadia in guj politics, Yes he sidelined some ultra fringe element of Rss who tried to disrupt gov functioning on daily basis. But he kept his hardliner imge in proper intact on the ideological line of sangh to make them option less. As rss is the most influential body in the politics of Guj and MP. but when in 2009 when bhagwat was made the chief of sangh things had improved as modi is his contemporary and has some personal repo.
- So telling "Rss is getting sakhas due to Modi" is seems to be true but at the same time we forget the matter of fact that what "Modi is getting in return" . He is getting a more confident and loyal, ideologically sound carder who may help him to remain in power till 2029. Btw in Kerela, karnatak some part of tamil nadu , west begal , UP, MH, jhknd and jammu the sakhas slowly had been increasing since 2010 after bhagwat was made chief. So it depands also on leadership, truly unlike his predecessor sudarshan, mohan bhagwat has really revived the org in a number of ways.
- mainly 2014 election, all aware SM and exposed MSM gave a much needed spotlight to rss though in result we can see avalanche in new joining, be it bjp membership drive or no of sakhas and u can put modi as main protagonist over here as he is face of BJP now.
- So Rss wants to sabotage Modi,s future term or modi gonna sideline rss its really difficult to say now. But IMO both need each other desperately to grow and survive. As an organization rss has already increased its reach to many level from SM to media to civil society(VIF). All the sanghi trollers u see in TW like isupportnamo, teju bagga and many more unverified account all fielded by sangha through ABPV of some respected university across the country. So in the festival of criticism from every kind of seculars and a hole Modi cant afford to loose his parental mentor ship org. Definitely he and bjp need the guidance and help when required as Modi got to tame ADVANI in delhi.
- Regarding BIHAR its too early to suggest what will be impact of mohan bhagwat statement. Yes it must got some future implication but too early to percolate in ground but admitting that it was bad timing, and this timing is most esoteric about rss. But one fact is also der that no bjp leader ever dare to say it as wrong. I wud say Amit shah kept his whole political career at stake in this bihar election. Whenever he does so we get good results, so its not the time to press the panic button. Its a open secret that in Bihar Rss Pracharak team there some good number of darlings of Nitish Kumar, they had also sent signals in the past to delhi that Modi sud placate Niku after the 2014 and well before bihar state election.
- So lastly RSS is not merely a cultural organization, take out this theory out of your mind. it is much more than that
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@saurav @Darmashkian Word going around twitter circles that LJP may get more seats that RJD in phase 1.. Whats your view ?
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First Blood Drawn in Bihar
First phase is over and the fate of candidates fighting on these 49 seats has been sealed in the EVM. Strangely in a state which has been known for booth capturing and electoral violence, there are hardly any conspiracy theories going on over the popular ‘EVM fraud’ which gets a new lease of life, every time a poll is going on and usually by the losing side. These allegations in a way give a hint as to who is conceding the ground and who is winning. An election as tough as Bihar naturally sees no such claims as the contest has been even. So who drew the 1st blood in the 1st phase? Election commission guidelines restrict us to provide any data points or trends at this stage which could impact the following stages of the elections. However we attempt to analyze the election and how does this go. It is fair to conclude that with a rise of over 6% in the polling turnout, the Election Commission has definitely drawn first blood and this is a victory of the sorts. We talk about some of the highlights in the following sections
Women Voters – Atleast 5% more women have voted than men and if one considers the sex ratio of the population, this disparity is even higher. So who are these lone women voters? It can be safely assumed that they are the family members of those migrant labours and workers who work outside Bihar. Since they are outside, their wives turn up to vote. Essentially these are working women or housewives belonging to the lower strata of household income. Husband’s views, relatives, awareness are the factors these women are influenced by, for voting. This time safety and security seemed to be a major aspect of the women voters. Dominantly a large % of the women voted for change. However the change was not necessarily at the CM level, it was also observed at a localized MLA level
Caste Polarization – Much is talked about the MYK vs DUE polarization for the UPA and the NDA respectively. Our interaction with the voters made it clear that such polarization exist more at a constituency level than at a party level. So when it was witnessed that the SCs (both Dalits and Mahadalits) have decisively polarized behind the NDA, the Forward Caste polarization as at a constituency level. Many (not majority) of them chose Congress in Bhagalpur, some of them chose JDU candidates in Samastipur and Nawada, however the party with least traction among forward voters was the RJD. By and large the default favorite among the forward voters was the BJP led alliance.
Chemistry Vs Arithmetic – It was said that the UPA would romp home with the sheer arithmetic in its favour. It was thought that a vote share of 45% for UPA vs NDA vote share of 38%, that too which the latter fetched at the peak of Modi wave, would be enough to crush the NDA. The actual voting suggests the battle is much different. The chemistry between RJD and JDU has gone down to the booth levels. However the booth workers are struggling to fetch the voters for the other party in case of UPA. This is truer for JDU than for RJD or Congress. RJD has been largely successful in transferring its vote base to Congress and the JDU. So wherever there is a good Muslim-Yadav population, the Congress along with a good number of Forward caste voters and JDU among with its own voter base can crush the opponents. The weak organizational structure of Congress would although undo that advantage and no surprise that Congress is in contest, in only a dozen of the seats it is fighting. On the other hand, JDU with the potent MYK and its own vote base which it earned due to 10 year of good rule is giving good fight. Unless there is sabotage by its ally, JDU must have a good strike rate, possibly more than 60% which is phenomenal for a party fighting double incumbency in the office.
The Surprise Package – It was said that the allies are the weak link for the BJP. However this does not hold true for LJP. The BJP and LJP have been in alliance for a while. The required chemistry among their cadres has reached a zenith. The absence of any major conflict between the 2 parties, in the last 1.5 years has also helped the cause. BJP cadres are working for LJP candidates as one of their own and vice versa. Also in some seats, LJP has managed to get muslim votes in double digits. Not a wonder it can spoil the party for quite a few. Infact, it would not be a surprise if in Phase 1, LJP scores a strike rate (seats won on seats contested) better than even JDU or the BJP in the 1st phase. LJP has done quite well in Samastipur, Jamui and Munger districts. If this holds true fr the remaining phases then, RJD for the 1st time, runs the risk of being relegated to the 4th position in the state, behind the BJP, JDU and the LJP
The Pseudo X Factor – Most people in Bihar either do not know Mohan Bhagwat or are not concerned much about the statements made by Mohan Bhagwat. However reservation is an emotive issue and no wonder RJD-JDU have left no stone unturned to make this the frontline issue of their attack. It would be in BJP’s interest to repeatedly disown the remarks of RSS chief. The perceived X factor, that is the ‘Journalistic Jumlas’ are not a big factor in Bihar election. Similar statements were made in 2014 and in every other election. CP Thakur (who is more popular in Bihar than Mohan Bhagwat) commented against reservation, not just assessing it, or Giriraj Singh’s many comments highlighted by Media did not impact any election. Media jumlas have not impacted any election except for Delhi. And the reasons were 3 fold. First Media penetration is high, second Delhi has majority of voters who belong to the “I don’t give a shit about politics” category and hence easily influenced by Media and third, BJP unit of Bihar is nowhere like BJP unit of Delhi, which has lost its cause after a long haul, out of power. The masisve churn and volatility in Delhiw as captured even by IBTL polls, when in October 2014 IBTL gave 54 to BJP and just 11 seats to AAP and just 2 months later, AAP gained 19 seats upto 30 and BJP slipped to 35. In Bihar, BJP leaders took the fight to the opposition, the best example was in 203 when they gave up power and unanimously raised the demand to make Narendra Modi as PM. Bunkums like ‘Church attacks’, ‘Liberal siege by Hindutva’ etc won’t work in Bihar. Same goes for reservation if the BJP top leaders, including the PM, keep repeating that they do not oppose reservation in their rallies. People might get angry but their voting choice would not be influenced. It was evident in our last opinion poll when Yadavas were angry with Lalu for beef remarks, but not willing to change their voting choice.
The Neo X Factor – Who is the silent voter? The 130+ castes in Bihar which belong to the extremely backward category or the EBC is touted to be the kingmaker and rightfully so. However as mentioned, these are over 130 groups. The Nishad group, comprising more than 20 communities of boatmen and fishermen, alone form over 1/3rd of this group. With Ajay Nishad in the fold and the son of Mallah ‘Mukesh Sahni’ supporting NDA, could prove to be the X factor in these elections. Mukesh represents the Mallah community which forms over 5% of Bihar’s population. His ambitions have driven him from one alliance to the other. For short term, this could prove to be the difference for NDA in a tightly contested election. After Narendra Modi, Mukesh Sahni is much in demand for rallies among the NDA partners. Sahni has already made an impact in Samastipur and Nawada for the NDA.
The Caveat – For a state with history of political violence, it would not be a surprise if the voters do not reveal their actual voting choices and might also be forced to vote for an alliance which they never wanted to. With Yadav ganglords and the Bahubalis in NDA fold as well, even if 5% of the voters conceal or mislead about their actual voting choices, it could shatter all the calculations. The 2nd issue with Bihar is, not just each of the 243 constituencies, even various booths, panchayats and villages in a particular seat have varied issues and people could vote differently on the predominant issues prevailing in their areas. In such a localized issue, it is extremely difficult to extrapolate voting behavior of a sample to the entire universe of population, even if the sample is a true representative of the population. Perhaps getting the Bihar polls accurate would be more about luck than about electoral analysis.
First phase is over and the fate of candidates fighting on these 49 seats has been sealed in the EVM. Strangely in a state which has been known for booth capturing and electoral violence, there are hardly any conspiracy theories going on over the popular ‘EVM fraud’ which gets a new lease of life, every time a poll is going on and usually by the losing side. These allegations in a way give a hint as to who is conceding the ground and who is winning. An election as tough as Bihar naturally sees no such claims as the contest has been even. So who drew the 1st blood in the 1st phase? Election commission guidelines restrict us to provide any data points or trends at this stage which could impact the following stages of the elections. However we attempt to analyze the election and how does this go. It is fair to conclude that with a rise of over 6% in the polling turnout, the Election Commission has definitely drawn first blood and this is a victory of the sorts. We talk about some of the highlights in the following sections
Women Voters – Atleast 5% more women have voted than men and if one considers the sex ratio of the population, this disparity is even higher. So who are these lone women voters? It can be safely assumed that they are the family members of those migrant labours and workers who work outside Bihar. Since they are outside, their wives turn up to vote. Essentially these are working women or housewives belonging to the lower strata of household income. Husband’s views, relatives, awareness are the factors these women are influenced by, for voting. This time safety and security seemed to be a major aspect of the women voters. Dominantly a large % of the women voted for change. However the change was not necessarily at the CM level, it was also observed at a localized MLA level
Caste Polarization – Much is talked about the MYK vs DUE polarization for the UPA and the NDA respectively. Our interaction with the voters made it clear that such polarization exist more at a constituency level than at a party level. So when it was witnessed that the SCs (both Dalits and Mahadalits) have decisively polarized behind the NDA, the Forward Caste polarization as at a constituency level. Many (not majority) of them chose Congress in Bhagalpur, some of them chose JDU candidates in Samastipur and Nawada, however the party with least traction among forward voters was the RJD. By and large the default favorite among the forward voters was the BJP led alliance.
Chemistry Vs Arithmetic – It was said that the UPA would romp home with the sheer arithmetic in its favour. It was thought that a vote share of 45% for UPA vs NDA vote share of 38%, that too which the latter fetched at the peak of Modi wave, would be enough to crush the NDA. The actual voting suggests the battle is much different. The chemistry between RJD and JDU has gone down to the booth levels. However the booth workers are struggling to fetch the voters for the other party in case of UPA. This is truer for JDU than for RJD or Congress. RJD has been largely successful in transferring its vote base to Congress and the JDU. So wherever there is a good Muslim-Yadav population, the Congress along with a good number of Forward caste voters and JDU among with its own voter base can crush the opponents. The weak organizational structure of Congress would although undo that advantage and no surprise that Congress is in contest, in only a dozen of the seats it is fighting. On the other hand, JDU with the potent MYK and its own vote base which it earned due to 10 year of good rule is giving good fight. Unless there is sabotage by its ally, JDU must have a good strike rate, possibly more than 60% which is phenomenal for a party fighting double incumbency in the office.
The Surprise Package – It was said that the allies are the weak link for the BJP. However this does not hold true for LJP. The BJP and LJP have been in alliance for a while. The required chemistry among their cadres has reached a zenith. The absence of any major conflict between the 2 parties, in the last 1.5 years has also helped the cause. BJP cadres are working for LJP candidates as one of their own and vice versa. Also in some seats, LJP has managed to get muslim votes in double digits. Not a wonder it can spoil the party for quite a few. Infact, it would not be a surprise if in Phase 1, LJP scores a strike rate (seats won on seats contested) better than even JDU or the BJP in the 1st phase. LJP has done quite well in Samastipur, Jamui and Munger districts. If this holds true fr the remaining phases then, RJD for the 1st time, runs the risk of being relegated to the 4th position in the state, behind the BJP, JDU and the LJP
The Pseudo X Factor – Most people in Bihar either do not know Mohan Bhagwat or are not concerned much about the statements made by Mohan Bhagwat. However reservation is an emotive issue and no wonder RJD-JDU have left no stone unturned to make this the frontline issue of their attack. It would be in BJP’s interest to repeatedly disown the remarks of RSS chief. The perceived X factor, that is the ‘Journalistic Jumlas’ are not a big factor in Bihar election. Similar statements were made in 2014 and in every other election. CP Thakur (who is more popular in Bihar than Mohan Bhagwat) commented against reservation, not just assessing it, or Giriraj Singh’s many comments highlighted by Media did not impact any election. Media jumlas have not impacted any election except for Delhi. And the reasons were 3 fold. First Media penetration is high, second Delhi has majority of voters who belong to the “I don’t give a shit about politics” category and hence easily influenced by Media and third, BJP unit of Bihar is nowhere like BJP unit of Delhi, which has lost its cause after a long haul, out of power. The masisve churn and volatility in Delhiw as captured even by IBTL polls, when in October 2014 IBTL gave 54 to BJP and just 11 seats to AAP and just 2 months later, AAP gained 19 seats upto 30 and BJP slipped to 35. In Bihar, BJP leaders took the fight to the opposition, the best example was in 203 when they gave up power and unanimously raised the demand to make Narendra Modi as PM. Bunkums like ‘Church attacks’, ‘Liberal siege by Hindutva’ etc won’t work in Bihar. Same goes for reservation if the BJP top leaders, including the PM, keep repeating that they do not oppose reservation in their rallies. People might get angry but their voting choice would not be influenced. It was evident in our last opinion poll when Yadavas were angry with Lalu for beef remarks, but not willing to change their voting choice.
The Neo X Factor – Who is the silent voter? The 130+ castes in Bihar which belong to the extremely backward category or the EBC is touted to be the kingmaker and rightfully so. However as mentioned, these are over 130 groups. The Nishad group, comprising more than 20 communities of boatmen and fishermen, alone form over 1/3rd of this group. With Ajay Nishad in the fold and the son of Mallah ‘Mukesh Sahni’ supporting NDA, could prove to be the X factor in these elections. Mukesh represents the Mallah community which forms over 5% of Bihar’s population. His ambitions have driven him from one alliance to the other. For short term, this could prove to be the difference for NDA in a tightly contested election. After Narendra Modi, Mukesh Sahni is much in demand for rallies among the NDA partners. Sahni has already made an impact in Samastipur and Nawada for the NDA.
The Caveat – For a state with history of political violence, it would not be a surprise if the voters do not reveal their actual voting choices and might also be forced to vote for an alliance which they never wanted to. With Yadav ganglords and the Bahubalis in NDA fold as well, even if 5% of the voters conceal or mislead about their actual voting choices, it could shatter all the calculations. The 2nd issue with Bihar is, not just each of the 243 constituencies, even various booths, panchayats and villages in a particular seat have varied issues and people could vote differently on the predominant issues prevailing in their areas. In such a localized issue, it is extremely difficult to extrapolate voting behavior of a sample to the entire universe of population, even if the sample is a true representative of the population. Perhaps getting the Bihar polls accurate would be more about luck than about electoral analysis.
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Mate over here u r absolutely wrong and ill informed, I wud say a little amateurish.
With no offense to any one, There hardly anybody in this forum (few r der) who can understand the subtle nuances of the relation between sangh and bjp. As for most of us as an armchair political scientists it is really difficult to trace the coordination level between sangha and party. I am not saying whatever Rss is saying is writing on the wall and BJP gov sud follow it, i just want to describe the correlation betn them. Without disclosing my identity much what i cant do here I am pointing out some of the points regarding this
- I came from a state where RSS and BJP exits since last 4 decades but not much influential, yahh 15-20 mla 2-3 mp on your own has been achieved but not more than that, and also these two never want to grow bcoz 96% of the population is Hindu and very less anti incumbency since last 16 yrs.
- I can still remember how i bribed a local drunken bjp leader to mollify him in support of a candidate chosen by local sangh pracharak in a municipal level election in 2012. He was an union leader of sweeper association and got some 1000 votes in hand in 4 booths and how a state bjp chief involved in the murder of a popular sangha leader who got some 1 lac voters in his book. So the infighting was always der and it will be there betn organization, party and high command and coordination starts in between these infighting and differences. Sometime party gets benefits out of it , sometime it has to bear the loss.
- Organizing a group of people to do a work and wining an election in a democracy is two very different work. But most of the time the later required the earlier.
- RSS is a 90 yr old organization it had already dealt single handedly with many power centers with its profound political strategy than BJP had itself. It never became worried abt its growth bcoz its growth is organic. Moreover the people who percolates its ideology are out of box, and zero materialistic, so its doent need even much of monetary or funds support to do its organizational work. voluntary contribution is enough for its day to day work.
- But yes it has a predilections to "Power" as its full time pracharaks sacrifices everything in the life to do the work of RSS, in return they want at the least to be a king maker not even king himself. and this eagerness turns furious when somebody tries to attack the existance of this organisation, at least as per wht history has told us.
- It had became so after the "Death of gandhi", "During emergency", "during mandal" and finally when after that bitch sonio tries to paint it as a "Hindu Terror" outfit during 26/11 and 2009 defeat worked as a catalyst in all this.
- Most imp point " From " Jansangh" a party of brahmins and UC to BJP in 90ies as a party of baniya and traders to BJP after 2009 with many OBCs in its fold to a BJP now with even dalits, MBCs EBCs and muslims. All have been possible due to Sangh's social penetration to this groups. How RSS helps BJP its quiet fathomable but once @magudi exactly pointed out this thing with a Rajyasabha tv debate video, that could be a perfect example IMO. Rss itself always an arbitrator for hindu unity irrespective of cast, colour and creed even somtime religion (goa and muslim rastiya manch) but yes it always an admirer of brahmans for their sheer intelligence and wit, bt it has no relevance in present rss format. .
- Many people say modi had sidelined rss in gujrat, no complete wrong. Yes he had ousted the influence of VHP and praveen togadia in guj politics, Yes he sidelined some ultra fringe element of Rss who tried to disrupt gov functioning on daily basis. But he kept his hardliner imge in proper intact on the ideological line of sangh to make them option less. As rss is the most influential body in the politics of Guj and MP. but when in 2009 when bhagwat was made the chief of sangh things had improved as modi is his contemporary and has some personal repo.
- So telling "Rss is getting sakhas due to Modi" is seems to be true but at the same time we forget the matter of fact that what "Modi is getting in return" . He is getting a more confident and loyal, ideologically sound carder who may help him to remain in power till 2029. Btw in Kerela, karnatak some part of tamil nadu , west begal , UP, MH, jhknd and jammu the sakhas slowly had been increasing since 2010 after bhagwat was made chief. So it depands also on leadership, truly unlike his predecessor sudarshan, mohan bhagwat has really revived the org in a number of ways.
- mainly 2014 election, all aware SM and exposed MSM gave a much needed spotlight to rss though in result we can see avalanche in new joining, be it bjp membership drive or no of sakhas and u can put modi as main protagonist over here as he is face of BJP now.
- So Rss wants to sabotage Modi,s future term or modi gonna sideline rss its really difficult to say now. But IMO both need each other desperately to grow and survive. As an organization rss has already increased its reach to many level from SM to media to civil society(VIF). All the sanghi trollers u see in TW like isupportnamo, teju bagga and many more unverified account all fielded by sangha through ABPV of some respected university across the country. So in the festival of criticism from every kind of seculars and a hole Modi cant afford to loose his parental mentor ship org. Definitely he and bjp need the guidance and help when required as Modi got to tame ADVANI in delhi.
- Regarding BIHAR its too early to suggest what will be impact of mohan bhagwat statement. Yes it must got some future implication but too early to percolate in ground but admitting that it was bad timing, and this timing is most esoteric about rss. But one fact is also der that no bjp leader ever dare to say it as wrong. I wud say Amit shah kept his whole political career at stake in this bihar election. Whenever he does so we get good results, so its not the time to press the panic button. Its a open secret that in Bihar Rss Pracharak team there some good number of darlings of Nitish Kumar, they had also sent signals in the past to delhi that Modi sud placate Niku after the 2014 and well before bihar state election.
- So lastly RSS is not merely a cultural organization, take out this theory out of your mind. it is much more than that
You are a good writer. Very lucid language.
Coming to Bihar : I am from this state and when I see this statement of MB's damaging BJP's prospect in election, I have to be suspicious. He has repeated this some times now. Everytime just before a phase. If BJP looses, my state looses 5 more years. At such an important juncture, all every BJP supporter asked RSS Chief to keep his mouth shut for few days. But I guess He has bigger issues of national interest to look after. Even if that means Bihar goes to dogs.
And this is not just my naive and immature sentiment. Every candidate fighting in this election is saying same thing (and worse) in private. No one believes that RSS is a cultural organization and very few consider them thekedar of Hindus. I would agree with you that both BJP and RSS need each other. Thats why I call such statements an effort to sabotage BJP in Bihar. When its a matter of life and death, MB should not expect niceties from Biharis. RSS will see people deserting its Shakhas in Bihar if BJP looses.
Possible. Congress and JD-U have not transferred votes to RJD candidates. Nitish has used Lalu.
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Satta Bazar has actually increased NDA's prospects. I doubt the whole reservation thing has been taken that seriously. Twitter pandits even claiming Seemeanchal in trouble...
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