Debunking some electoral myths
Let us see what has happened in last 2 weeks nationally and in TN ( Read previous posts for where we stood earlier)
Nationally
- Modi/BJP surging ahead in Northern states with most polls placing NDA close to majority
- Insipid congress campaign
- Din of ticket distribution hastles/infighting in BJP settled.
- Huge turnout in the intial phases of voting
TN
ADMK front
- Some anti-incumbency on ADMK due to power shortage
- Jaya campaign losing momentum at a macro level but strong grassroot efforts by ADMK
- Some non-cooperation from local ministers to candidates
- Realisation among cadres and public at large that Jaya cannot become PM or perhaps even King maker.
All of this can create a small negative swing of 3-5 % from the base share of ADMK ( 32-36%) but it takes a lot for ADMK vote share to drop below 30%
DMK front
- Relentless attack by stalin on ADMK having some effect
- Alagiri creating some ripples but not enough evidence of damage in more than 5-6 seats
- Minorites and dalits slowly consolidating behind DMK.
So the net effect of this is- DMK+ vote share ( 25-28%) is largely stable and it takes a lot for DMK to drop below 25% either
NDA
- Anbumoni campaigning for DMDK
- Vaiko, Vijayakanth, Pon R all mutually campaiging
- Good response to Vijayakanth and Premlatha
- Good ally coordination in West, south and certain constituencies in North
- Some vanniyar consolidation in selected constituencies
- People recognising that NDA is not merely a vote splitter but can win in several constituencies
- Local Tamil and English media starting to portray most seats as 3 way fight
All of this can create a small swing of 3-5% above base vote share of 22-25%, even before Modi rallies or Rajinikanth effect.
As a result, we have a very tight 3 way race with all 3 fronts with 25-30% vote share, with ADMK probably slightly ahead. ADMK's advantage largely rests on its grassroots efforts to turnout rural women, less educated and older folks on election day. Remember this is before the effect of
Modi - Rajinikanth meeting
Modi rallies in TN with presumable groundswell of support for NDA.
So, heres where we stand ( See earlier posts for candidate details)
Sure wins
1. Kanyakumari
2. Virudhunagar
Closely ahead, neck-neck with ADMK
3. Kovai
4. Erode
The rest are locked in close 3-way battle with ADMK and DMK where NDA is within a striking distance of victory ( perhaps less than 5 %) where anything can happen. If the Modi rallies create a groundswell, NDA can even all of these in this order and perhaps the tally can be as high as 18. ( Could have been 19 if not for Nilgiri). A lot of these are going to be very close and every vote counts. Whether the NDA gets 4 or 18 seats depends a lot on " Getting out the vote", especially the new voters who are largely NDA sympathisers.
5. Salem- Sudeesh- DMDK
6. Pollachi- Eswaran- KMDK
7. South chennai- La ganesan - BJP - This has clearly moved up the list ( nearly 50% new voters since last polls will be the key here)
8. Dharmapuri- Anbumani - PMK
9. Sivaganga- H raja - BJP
10. Arani- AK moorthy - PMK
11. Krishnagiri- G K mani - PMK
12. Vellore - A C shanmugam- BJP-Justice
13. Tiruppur - Dineshkumar -DMDK ( I wouldn't be surprised if this was a nail bighter with ADMK)
14. Arakkonam - Velu - PMK
15. Ramnad - Kuppuramu - BJP
16. Tuticorin - Joel - MDMK
17. Kallakurichi - Dr. Eswaran -DMDK
18. Tenkasi - Dr.Sathan - MDMK ( If BJP can win 4/5 seats in upper assam, NDA can surely win seats like Tenkasi in a wave election with big swing. If this happens, NDA vote share is likely on par with ADMK close to 30%, very much possible)
In the rest, the NDA has too little time to defeat both ADMK and DMK and I would be really surprised if NDA wins anything outside these.
So, as we get closer, we can see how these unfold and how many of these NDA actually ends up winning.
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Looks like NDA might gets some seats in Tamil Nadu , this is probably the reason why BJP says it does not need help from Jaya ...
