Valiant_Soul
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Reasons for Limiting Agnis Range
News stories indicate that India decided not to develop an ICBM to avoid creating tension with the international community, particularly while the U.S.-India nuclear trade deal is still pending. [8] Shortly before news reports of the range cap, then Indian President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, a key figure in the countrys missile development program, revealed that after the Agni-III test in April, several unnamed countries had refused to export polyacrylonitrile (PAN) fiber to India. [9] This material is an essential precursor in the manufacture of carbon fiber, used for missile bodies and components. Given the high re-entry speeds of ICBM warheads, carbon-fiber-based ablative materials would be needed for the heat shields of ICBM reentry vehicles. Kalam may have had this use in mind when he referred to PAN as critical for the ICBM program to proceed. [10] While there is no other public information on the denial of this item, whose export is regulated under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), it is possible that this was an indication of potential pressures on India not to pursue an intercontinental-range system. By capping Indias missile program, New Delhi apparently hopes to demonstrate to the international community that its strategic interests and threat perceptions are restricted to Asia and do not impact any Western power. [11]
Importance of a 5,000-km Range
India may be seeking a missile with a 5,000-km-range so it can credibly target major cities in China without the constraint of having to base its strategic missiles in eastern India, near the Chinese border. If based in central or southern India, an Agni-III missile with a range of 3,500 km would not be able to reach northern and eastern China, where major cities, such as Beijing, Nanjing, and Shanghai, are located. [16] A 5,000-km Indian missile could reach these targets from such bases, however, offering New Delhi considerably greater strategic depth and enabling India to keep its retaliatory forces beyond the range of all but Chinas most capable missiles. It has also been suggested that Indian missile designers seek more powerful missiles not to increase the range of these systems, but to increase their payload capacities, in order to accommodate Indias heavier proven warheads. [17] Both the 3,500-km-range Agni-III and the 5,000-km-range Agni-III*/Agni-IV would allow India to strike targets in Pakistan from bases beyond the range of Pakistans most capable missile systems.
The Surya
For several years, there have been periodic reports that an ICBM named Surya has been under development by the Indian government. [19] After the April 2007 Agni-III test, there was speculation that the Surya ICBM was in development, but the recent reports on the extension of the Agni-III (into the Agni-III* or Agni-IV) do not mention the Surya. [20] As characterized in the past, the Surya was to have a range of 9,000-10,000 km or possibly more. [21] Indias recent announcement of the missile-range cap suggests that this project is no longer being actively pursued.
INDIA AND PAKISTAN MISSILE RACE SURGES ON
