Indian intrusion: Facts and fiction

[coffee_cup]

Lets try to analyse it rationally:

Facts:

1) Indian planes intruded Pakistan airspace from Lahore sector. They were engaged and sent back
2) Indian planes intruded Pakistan airspace Bahawalpur sector. They were engaged and sent back.

3) Much larger contingent of Indian planes intruded from LoC, they were engaged and sent back. But this time, one or two of them dropped the payload they were carrying.

Yet to be verified:
1) No body was killed and no structure was actually targeted.

A theory why no Indian plane was shot down:
It is my personal opinion: PAF and air defence has the full capability to shot down Indian planes, but PAF was told not to do so unless the Indian planes actually cross some real red-lines. And no, simple intrusions are no red lines. They happen all the time from both sides.

It could be a miscalculation from our side that we are not thinking like our shrewd enemy is. It is information warfare all along and Indians have started to master it. For them, the sole purpose is not to cross any red-line but play some tricks to please their extremist vote bank and win elections.

Yes, unfortunately for india, no matter what they claim, the more hatred you show towards Pakistan, the better positioned you are in elections.

So what now?

There are two options:
1) Pakistan keep their head down and concentrate on economy which has started to improve after we have thoroughly defeated Indian sponsored cross-border terrorism in our country. Let Indians beat their 56 fake chest. Once we are in a better position, we should spend more on to set up serious media outlets to counter their propaganda with our own. Defence spending must increase, there is absolutely no question about that, this is a hard reality in today's world that you have to militarily strong to survive.

2) Pakistan lowers the red-lines and next time any IAF intrudes its airspace, it is actually shot down. This will send a strong message to Modi and his financial backers, that we are ready to up the ante.

Any serious threat of war between the countries and all those Western IT-setups in Chennai and else where take the next flight out of India. Something likes of Modi and his Banya backers could never ever afford.

We need to think like Indians, yes they have a very narrow one dimensional thinking completely built on Pakistan hatred, but we can counter that if we were to seriously imply some modern 5th generation Info warfare tactics.

I think, Pakistan should not take the bait and avoid the war. But if it is unavoidable, this is the only thing that our emotionally charged public is good at - dying for the glory!

Fictions:
Well, I think I'll leave that part for now. If you are one of those unlucky ones who happened to watch some Indian media yelling match i.e. talk shows, you would know.

 

[Saiful Islam]

Who dares to touch the Mosulman?

 

[Indus Pakistan]

It is my personal opinion: PAF and air defence has the full capability to shot down Indian planes, but PAF was told not to do so unless the Indian planes actually cross some real red-lines. And no, simple intrusions are no red lines. They happen all the time from both sides.

They did cross the red lines. I believe [I stand to be corrected @Windjammer ] that both sides have a unwritten rule. Their aircraft must not come any closer then 10km from the LOC. So the moment IAF moved 10km from the LOC they had broken the red line. They then crossed the LOC and continued the ingress to Balakot some 35 miles inside Pakistan. This is heavily biased article on BBC by a Indian but nevertheless it does raise some interesting points.


Both militaries have scrupulously observed a confidence-building measure that prohibits fixed-wing aircraft from flying within 10km (6.21 miles) of the LoC and helicopters from coming closer than 5km without informing the other side beforehand. For the first time, India has deliberately breached this contract.

n the unwritten set of rules that govern action and reaction between the two militaries on the LoC, air strikes constitute a major escalation, which is significantly higher than punishing Pakistani posts by cross-border firing, or even sending ground troops across.

These air strikes have gone several steps ahead of the "surgical strikes" of 2016, when India attacked militant camps across the LoC after Indian soldiers were killed in an attack by Pakistan-backed militants.

The apparent ease with which Indian air force fighters flew 80km into Pakistan-administered territory, undetected by a military that should have been on high alert after open Indian threats of attack, again exposes the rudimentary capability of Pakistani air defences. This should reinforce the concern that arose in 2011, when American helicopters flew undetected into Pakistan, carrying naval commandos who killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad and flew out with his bod

Who dares to touch the Mosulman?

You punks. In 1971.

 

[Rank]

Lets try to analyse it rationally:

Facts:

1) Indian planes intruded Pakistan airspace from Lahore sector. They were engaged and sent back
2) Indian planes intruded Pakistan airspace Bahawalpur sector. They were engaged and sent back.

3) Much larger contingent of Indian planes intruded from LoC, they were engaged and sent back. But this time, one or two of them dropped the payload they were carrying.

Yet to be verified:
1) No body was killed and no structure was actually targeted.

A theory why no Indian plane was shot down:
It is my personal opinion: PAF and air defence has the full capability to shot down Indian planes, but PAF was told not to do so unless the Indian planes actually cross some real red-lines. And no, simple intrusions are no red lines. They happen all the time from both sides.

It could be a miscalculation from our side that we are not thinking like our shrewd enemy is. It is information warfare all along and Indians have started to master it. For them, the sole purpose is not to cross any red-line but play some tricks to please their extremist vote bank and win elections.

Yes, unfortunately for india, no matter what they claim, the more hatred you show towards Pakistan, the better positioned you are in elections.

So what now?

There are two options:
1) Pakistan keep their head down and concentrate on economy which has started to improve after we have thoroughly defeated Indian sponsored cross-border terrorism in our country. Let Indians beat their 56 fake chest. Once we are in a better position, we should spend more on to set up serious media outlets to counter their propaganda with our own. Defence spending must increase, there is absolutely no question about that, this is a hard reality in today's world that you have to militarily strong to survive.

2) Pakistan lowers the red-lines and next time any IAF intrudes its airspace, it is actually shot down. This will send a strong message to Modi and his financial backers, that we are ready to up the ante.

Any serious threat of war between the countries and all those Western IT-setups in Chennai and else where take the next flight out of India. Something likes of Modi and his Banya backers could never ever afford.

We need to think like Indians, yes they have a very narrow one dimensional thinking completely built on Pakistan hatred, but we can counter that if we were to seriously imply some modern 5th generation Info warfare tactics.

I think, Pakistan should not take the bait and avoid the war. But if it is unavoidable, this is the only thing that our emotionally charged public is good at - dying for the glory!

Fictions:
Well, I think I'll leave that part for now. If you are one of those unlucky ones who happened to watch some Indian media yelling match i.e. talk shows, you would know.

what RED LINES jesay ?

 

[Daghalodi]

Rajiv Tyagi - Retired IAF Fighter Pilot
23 mins ·
This morning as I woke up at 5AM in Gurugram, I was informed of an IAF strike on Balakot, in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunwa area, approximately 200 km North West of India's nearest Air Force station at Avantipur, South East of Srinagar. A few phone calls later, I learned it was a pre-dawn attack at 0330 hrs, which delieverd 1,000 kg bombs to a designated target area. Since then, I have been holding my horses, waiting for and actually watching a whole nation descend into hysterical paroxysms of joy and celebration, as if we have removed Pakistan from existence!

Hopefully the paroxysms are over by now. The hysterics will take a little more time to calm down. But it is now time, to analyze this action in the light of cold, sober logic after 16 hours of pointless celebration.

I have written here -->[ https://www.heraldgoa.in/…/Of-limited-wars-prec…/142856.html ] about the futility of attacking 'terror camps', as they do not yield any strategic enemy assets. But in this case as in many before, the Govt of India has asked the Armed forces to act on its behalf and the Armed Forces have delivered, only to once again be used for the personal glorification of Narendra Modi.

Also once again, we have used conventional forces to strike at extremely low-value tactical targets of an adversary that uses asymmetric warfare against us. In hindsight we can see once again, the Govt has used the Armed Forces in an ill-advised action, purely for propaganda purposes, without achieving any strategic or tactical goal, except maybe the minimally valid goal of delivering a military message to a recalcitrant adversary.

To understand what our Govt has asked the Air Force to do, it is important to first understand the technology used by fighter aircraft to acquire and destroy targets and how weapons are chosen... To carry a particular weapon load, first the nature of the target needs to be known - is it a soft skin target, like trucks and jeeps? In which case 30 mm front guns or rockets can be used, even rockets being overkill, 30 mm armour piercing incendiary (API) cannon rounds being sufficient to completely destroy soft skinned targets. If armour is known to be present in the target area, 58 mm API rockets, released in a barrage of 8, 16 or 32 rockets per barrage, would be the choice, depending on the nature of the armour. If the target is an area, not point-targets like soft skinned vehicles or buildings but troop concentrations or buildings over a large area, bombs would be the choice.

There is also the choice of guided weapons, which may either be guided by reflected modulated laser or guided by an image processing or radio guidance system, depending on whether we are targetting a designated or target of opportunity or a radio transmitter like a wireless or a radar station.

The choice of weapon is also guided by the cost of the asset versus the target. For example, one can ill afford to target a tin shed or a tent, with TV-guided munitions. But then, neither should we be targeting a tin shed with a fighter aircraft, unless the tin shed is known to house a tactical or strategic target of sufficient importance to use such platforms or munitions. Cost here, is not just the acquisition cost, but a matrix of the replacement cost and the cost of availability when you actually need such munitions for their specific features.

For a pilot to deliver munitions to a ground target:
1. The target has to be visually acquired, the weaponry selected, if it is being carried, and the pilot then delivers them to the target.
2. If the pilot cannot visually acquire the target, like in darkness,, poor visibility or other reasons, the target can be illuminated with a modulated laser illuminator wielded by a scout or other friendly forward human asset. The weapon delivery system in the aircraft then automatically guides the guided weapon to the laser illuminated target. This too however, can be victim to poor visibility, fog being capable of scattering the laser beam, rendering the weapon system ineffective.
3. The weapon load is delivered at pre-decided coordinate(s), hoping to create maximum damage in the area.

The Balakot Mirage-2000 raid delivered 1,000 kg bombs, obviously at pre-decided coordinate(s). It is clear that we did not have a point target in mind. We wanted to deliver area munitions in the general area of a pre-decided coordinate - a perfectly valid decision, if we are to deliver a military warning to a recalcitrant adversary. But where did TV channels get the number of casualties from, or that a terrorist camp had been destroyed? Even the IAF would not have been able to acquire that information after a raid at 0330 hrs. Obviously, agents of the GoI are feeding this fake info to TV channels and the print medium.

We know the Jaish-e-Mohammed strategic assets are in Bahawalpur and we would only find low-value tactical targets in Balakot. But we also know that Balakot is undefended by the PAF, the nearest airfield being the civilian airfield of Muzaffarabad, about 25km South of Balakot, which serves the military station at Abbottabad. The nearest PAF airfield, to my mind, would be Islamabad, about 100 km South of Balakot – an F16, from the time it was scrambled, would take about 10-11 minutes to reach, by which time all action would have been over. We have to surmise this attack was ordered purely for publicity, because I think it would have been extremely embarrassing if we lost a Mirage 2000 or two in attacking Bahawalpur, with three PAF stations in the vicinity. Indian TV channels have been baying for blood and revenge since Feb 14 and given the raised temperatures, the PAF would already be on standby to mount combat air patrol or interception at very short notice. After all, we wanted the publicity of having mounted a response to Pulwama, without the consequences of war or the embarrassment of losing assets.

More than any other discussion, we need to ask, why did the Govt of India once again, use a military operation for publicity? Consider the consequences now - we have violated an international border to deliver munitions at a target inside Pakistan and instead of keeping it a secret, we have publicized it so much, with every minion of the Govt saying something or the other on the subject, that we have denied ourselves all plausible deniability! Pakistan will now go to the UN and say India attacked it without provocation. And we cannot even deny the attack! Stupid! We are now aggressors, instead of defenders. In contrast, Pakistan used asymmetric assets against us in Pulwama, without losing plausible deniability.

In a different dimension, we have frittered away the traditional Russian UNSC veto, which has been exercised in our favour innumerable times in the past, have invited the Chinese veto against us and not at all gained the US veto to our side. The US geopolitical interest still lies in Pakistan, not in India, because Af-Pak is still a US geopolitical engagement, with a Shia nuclear-capable Iran to the West of this region and Pakistan closely allied to another US geopolitical interest, Saudi Arabia.

So now if the UNSC resolves any action against India, which UNSC veto-power will we turn to, to exercise its veto in our favour, to preclude such action?

I don't know what has happened to our populace. We have become a very stupid and a very hysterical nation, almost akin to caricatures out of a cartoon movie. And we vote for politicians exactly like us.

 

[Asian.Century]

 

[coffee_cup]

The apparent ease with which Indian air force fighters flew 80km into Pakistan-administered territory, undetected by a military that should have been on high alert after open Indian threats of attack, again exposes the rudimentary capability of Pakistani air defences. This should reinforce the concern that arose in 2011, when American helicopters flew undetected into Pakistan, carrying naval commandos who killed Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad and flew out with his bod

I actually do not watch or listen to BBC, they are always biased towards India and against Pakistan. A very recent example, the case of censoring "the monkey".

It is interesting how they are increasing the distance with each passing hour. Now it has become "80 km".

Come on, give me a break.

Regarding red-lines, I think, and again it is my personal opinion, PAF is fully capable of downing IAF planes, but Pak was taking a lenient view of it, in order not to escalate things, which would play well for Indian elections.

Things will definitely change now. But I have to say this, we always learn a little late. Even though we fully know our shrewd enemy from the East!

what RED LINES jesay ?

I don't know man. I am just giving my personal opinion at very high level without getting into specifics such as naming the actual red-lines.

 

[IndoCarib]

More fiction than fact.

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

Check out @ZaidZamanHamid’s Tweet:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1100465169933705216

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

It's in Pak's interest to keep the escalation down from her side!!! Remember, after the "Surgical Strike", what happened to the LOC???? Now, for Pak it's like Gunah bizden gitti - sins have left us....

India has shown her cards, but Pak hasn't...

Now is the time to work 100% for Modi's re-election...

 

[coffee_cup]

It's in Pak's interest to keep the escalation down from her side!!! Remember, after the "Surgical Strike", what happened to the LOC???? Now, for Pak it's like Gunah bizden gitti - sins have left us....

India has shown her cards, but Pak hasn't...

Now is the time to work 100% for Modi's re-election...

I agree.

Pakistan should focus more on 5th generation info warfare techniques. For Indians, wars are won and lost on media. Once we can convey our message to their larger public that their media is feeding them shyt all along, we have already won the war.

 

[coffee_cup]

what RED LINES jesay ?

So seems like we have had enough of that BS from India and they did cross some red lines,

Happy now bro?