Indian defence minister draws line at 36 Rafales

[Abingdonboy]

Please don't be too disappointed if in the near future you find out that these 36 Rafales have been replaced by M2k's latest upgrades. They would bring IAF replacement of Mig-21 ahead of schedule. By the time LCA would also get the green light.

Keep dreaming. More Rafales are coming, we both know it.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Keep dreaming. More Rafales are coming, we both know it.

Now, the chances of that are next to nil.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Now, the chances of that are next to nil.

Based on? In no reality are the IAF going to induct a mere 2 Sqns of a new type (at a time when they already operate so many types), no one seems to understand the huge logistical, maintenance and training commitment it takes to induct a new type of a/c, let alone a fighter, into an AF. The IAF would have to set up new MRO facilities, have pilots and ground crews extensively trained on the new type, have TACDE work out the combat manuals/practices for the new type (taking up to 18 months), set up a new line of logistics, create stockpiles of entirely different spares from what it currently has in service, liaise with new OEMs- all for 36 jets, are you serious? No way buddy! It simply wouldn't be worth it to go to all this trouble for the sake of such a limited amount of a/c, not for an AF the size of the IAF- the law of economies of scale is more pronounced than ever for the IAF.

I have spoken to a few people informed in these matters (defence sales) and they said the minimum number it would make sense for the IAF to induct would be around 80 as this would create the requisite base as far as instructors, simulators and spares would be concerned. 36 is simply not a viable number and the GoI would, rightly, get their backsides handed to them in CAG report year after year if this took place. Not one of the people I spoke to believed the final number of Rafales in IAF colours would be 36.It would actually be more beneficial for the IAF NOT to induct such small amount of these jets if that were the case.

Modi and Parrihkor have both stated post-12 April that more Rafales will be built in India and Dassualt are looking to tie up with Indian companies for a JV to do so. What has been reported today has been largely misquoted and taken out of context.

 

[saurav]

Good decision. SFC will get these with some Super-MKI. Air patrolling can be done with LCA . No point in buying a $ 200 mil. 4 LCA can be manufactured in India in that amount.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Good decision. SFC will get these with some Super-MKI. Air patrolling can be done with LCA . No point in buying a $ 200 mil. 4 LCA can be manufactured in India in that amount.

$200 million is a lifecycle figure, not the unit cost. The MKIs won't cost much less than this over their lifetimes but will offer SIGNIFICANTLY less flight hours and will spend FAR more time undergoing maintenance than the Rafale.

At a time when the MiG-21s and 27s are STILL in service, still crashing, and being flown less to avoid excessive risks (thus comprising training and fleet-wide operational readiness) do you really think this is the time the IAF/GoI would start looking to fill the SFC's requirements for their own fleet and thereby ignoring the woeful state of the wider AF? Talk about misplaced priorities. Modi was quite clear in Paris- these 36 Rafales are to be procured on a fast track basis to meet the immediate needs of the IAF (thus the regular IAF plagued with unreliable a/c), this has nothing to do with the SFC and many more Rafales are on the way.

 

[ares]

INR 900 billion is being saved on 90 Rafaels..translates to INR 10 Billion per Rafael..where as Tejas is costing only INR 1.5 Billion per air craft...That means 7 Tejas can be bought for each Rafael.

 

[Abingdonboy]

INR 900 billion is being saved on 90 Rafaels..translates to INR 10 Billion per Rafael..where as Tejas is costing only INR 1.5 Billion per air craft...That means 7 Tejas can be bought for each Rafael.

Neither figure is entirely accurate. I think the real cost will be 1 Rafale= about 3 LCAs.

 

[ares]

Neither figure is entirely accurate. I think the real cost will be 1 Rafale= about 3 LCAs.

Perhaps, over a lifecycle of 40yrs..but this government is more concerned about short term fiscal tightening it seems.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Perhaps, over a lifecycle of 40yrs..but this government is more concerned about short term fiscal tightening it seems.

In the short term yes but that shouldn't have much of an impact on defence deals and they have already cleared quite a few. India is now growing at >7.5% GDP and is likely to sustain this for the foreseeable future, in the medium to long term the funds are there.

I don't see the Rafale case as anything to do with finances though but about extracting a sweet deal from the French side for the "Make in India" campaign. Look at all of Modi's foreign tours, all have had "Make in India" front and centre, most have lead to agreements involving foreign firms expanding/setting up bases in India and Modi aggress to "only" 36 Rafales and that to in a flyaway condition? I don't buy it for a second.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

Based on? In no reality are the IAF going to induct a mere 2 Sqns of a new type (at a time when they already operate so many types), no one seems to understand the huge logistical, maintenance and training commitment it takes to induct a new type of a/c, let alone a fighter, into an AF. The IAF would have to set up new MRO facilities, have pilots and ground crews extensively trained on the new type, have TACDE work out the combat manuals/practices for the new type (taking up to 18 months), set up a new line of logistics, create stockpiles of entirely different spares from what it currently has in service, liaise with new OEMs- all for 36 jets, are you serious? No way buddy! It simply wouldn't be worth it to go to all this trouble for the sake of such a limited amount of a/c, not for an AF the size of the IAF- the law of economies of scale is more pronounced than ever for the IAF.

Bro, if this is all true then it would be a much better deal to get the M2K-9's. 4-5 squadrons can be inducted within months in the same amount that you are going to pay for the 36 Rafales. This is something that the IAF would also be looking at but would not comment because they might think that it would bring the moral of the general public to a new low. So they would be relying on the Politicians or the Courts to some how give them an excuse.

Modi and Parrihkor have both stated post-12 April that more Rafales will be built in India and Dassualt are looking to tie up with Indian companies for a JV to do so. What has been reported today has been largely misquoted and taken out of context.

This post was to get the good will from France and to get these aircraft delivery to the earliest but once the French Government got to know that this is a bluff the amount was re negotiated and it is still undergoing. On the other hand Egypt and Qatar also want their orders on the scheduled dates. UAE has also started to re-negotiate the Rafale which would take the orders to around 126 without the Indian 36 aircraft.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Bro, if this is all true then it would be a much better deal to get the M2K-9's. 4-5 squadrons can be inducted within months in the same amount that you are going to pay for the 36 Rafales. This is something that the IAF would also be looking at but would not comment because they might think that it would bring the moral of the general public to a new low. So they would be relying on the Politicians or the Courts to some how give them an excuse.

The IAF settled on the Rafale after exhaustive trails, they are not interested in a single engined fighter for this requirement and especially not a second hand fighter. They want a brand new fighter, not something that is already on its way to retirement.

This post was to get the good will from France and to get these aircraft delivery to the earliest but once the French Government got to know that this is a bluff the amount was re negotiated and it is still undergoing. On the other hand Egypt and Qatar also want their orders on the scheduled dates. UAE has also started to re-negotiate the Rafale which would take the orders to around 126 without the Indian 36 aircraft.

India doesn't need to buy good will from France- there are multiple other defence deals with France running into the tens of billions in the coming years. The 126-200 requirement remains, in fact it has gotten greater as far as the IAF is concerned. Not to mention an order or a mere 36 would undermine Modi's "Make in India" policy greatly and this si not a man who does not care deeply about optics and perception- he wouldn't do something to so publicly hurt his pet project.


The fact remains, 36 a/c aren't viable for an AF the size of the IAF, it is abundantly clear more than 36 Rafales will eventually make their way into IAF colours.

 

[Superboy]

Does it take 10 years to sign the frigging deal for 36 Rafales?

 

[New Resolve]

I'm glad our enemies are a bunch of rank incompetents. I just want to see these negotiations drag out a bit with the final number being 18 instead of 36.

 

[ares]

Does it take 10 years to sign the frigging deal for 36 Rafales?

You tell us.

Zardari was in China in 2009 to buy 36 J-10s ..Now we know, that PAF will never see those J-10s.

President Zardari to discuss the purchase Fc-20 for PAF ~ ASIAN DEFENCE

Same with those U-214s...that were suppose to bought in 2007..yet 8 yrs down the line ..Pakistan is yet buy a single submarine.

 

[Superboy]

You tell us.

Zardari was in China in 2009 to buy 36 J-10s ..Now we know, that PAF will never see those J-10s.

President Zardari to discuss the purchase Fc-20 for PAF ~ ASIAN DEFENCE

Same with those U-214s...that were suppose to bought in 2007..yet 8 yrs down the line ..Pakistan is yet buy a single submarine.

Pakistan is going for 5th gen planes like J-31 not J-10B.