India will never be as successful as China in economy

[MH.Yang]

China is not a dictatorship ...yet 60 million people starved to death and the same party Still rules

China is not a dictatorship ...yet millions of women were forced to have abortions and the same party still rules

China is not a dictatorship... Yet 90 million people were laid off without notice and the same party still rules.

China is not a dictatorship ...yet millions of people were interred for following their religion and the same party still rules

It doesn't make any difference to me, if that's a price you people are willing to pay. Not many others would.

Ok bye. So long and thanks for all the fish.

First, check whether your data is correct. In addition, please do not quote rumors to discuss the problem.

In the 1959 / 1961 famine, even in terms of population growth rate, the largest death toll in China is expected to be 15 million, not 60 million.

Second, if we consider the proportion of deaths, more people starved to death during the USA great depression than in 1959 / 1961.

If we continue to consider that during World War II, Britain plundered food from South Asia, resulting in more than 50 million people dying of famine, it will be even worse.

Of course, you Indians of American nationality may not recognize that South Asians were British nationals at that time.

BTW: China is a country with religious freedom and has not buried millions of people for religion.



What's your comment on the US government causing millions of Americans to die of covid?
How do you evaluate the shooting crime that causes more than 30000 deaths every year by the US government?

Do you recognize that the United States is a dictatorship country?

 

[VkdIndian]

one is South Korea and the other is China.

What about Taiwan?

I learned all these facts on internet.

Very very reliable resources. Keep up the learning.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Yes, China is not a successful country. India is a successful superpower with a population of 1.4 billion. Congratulations to you.

In addition, I suggest you learn about the dictator Park Chung Hee who ruled South Korea for 20 years. Under his rule, South Korea has changed from a low-income country to a high-income country.

After World War II, only two countries in human history developed from low-income countries to high-income countries, one is South Korea and the other is China.

Actually, I had some Chinese colleagues who felt offended when they heard that India will soon be the world's most populous country.

 

[Hephaestus]

Maybe we would like to replicate China's success. But, we are better off without it.

 

[MH.Yang]

What about Taiwan?


Very very reliable resources. Keep up the learning.

China recognizes that Kashmir belongs to Pakistan, but the Indian government dare not recognize Taiwan.

Do you think this makes Indians angry?

 

[MultaniGuy]

China recognizes that Kashmir belongs to Pakistan, but the Indian government dare not recognize Taiwan.

Do you think this makes Indians angry?

I believe there is a secret agreement, where China recognizes Kashmir is part of Pakistan, while Pakistan recognizes that Taiwan is part of China.

 

[Nan Yang]

This Speech Shocked The Entire Indian Subcontinent

 

[VkdIndian]

China recognizes that Kashmir belongs to Pakistan

Where did you pull this out from? China says that it is an issue between both the nations and they need to resolve it bilaterally.

Indian government dare not recognize Taiwan.

This is an ace that India can use if pushed against the wall by China.
Meanwhile, India can do a lot of things with Taiwan to needle China.

Examples -

Taiwan thanks India and other countries for calls to de-escalate tensions in Taiwan Strait

New Delhi, Aug 14 (PTI) Taiwan on Sunday expressed gratitude to India and several other countries for their calls for exercising restrain and avoiding unilateral actions to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait in the face of China’s belligerent military posturing following US House Speaker...

theprint.in

Why India’s statement on Taiwan rattles China

While India urged restraint, and de-escalation of tension in the Taiwan Straits, its response to the ‘one-China policy’ question, that India’s position is well known and needs no reiteration, is a message to China that the use of force for Taiwan’s reunification will not find favour with India.

www.moneycontrol.com

As far as ‘DARE’ is considered Papa Xi dared US to send Pelosi to Taiwan. We all know what happened to that DARE. One nation fired a lot of missiles in thin air, huffed and puffed and claimed to have changed the status quo.

 

[FuturePAF]

Can the chinese model be replicated elsewhere ? otherwise isn't this whole discussion a moot point ?

It’s actually started in the East Asian tiger economies from the 1960s-1980s, and Deng Xioping replicated them but on a larger scale. Basically one party rule with full focus on the economy. Confucian principles in the culture respecting authority and a sense of self sacrifice, but it can only last a generation as the nation industrializes, after which the demographics and the debt catch-up.

Could India do it as the largest population in the world and most likely to be looked at as the next possible generator of global growth? Probably not because too many of the little things are disorganized and emotional. rule of law, tax codes, and labor force training just to name three. Even younger members/descendants of the diaspora don’t want to go back. It’s like southern Italy in the last century. Talent is fleeing the country much earlier in India’s development as compared to China.

Look at the fertility rate of India this year. China was at this level in 1992. How does the India of today compare to the China of 30 years ago, when China was growing at 12%?

Fertility and economic reform wise Pakistan is where India was 30 years ago. So if Pakistan can get its act together it has the demographic weight and simple inefficiencies just waiting to be fixed to make it possible that it could catch up to India but it will take a whole generation if it manages itself well.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It’s actually started in the East Asian tiger economies from the 1960s-1980s, and Deng Xioping replicated them but on a larger scale. Basically one party rule with full focus on the economy. Confucian principles in the culture respecting authority and a sense of self sacrifice, but it can only last a generation as the nation industrializes, after which the demographics and the debt catch-up.

Could India do it as the largest population in the world and most likely to be looked at as the next possible generator of global growth? Probably not because too many of the little things are disorganized and emotional. rule of law, tax codes, and labor force training just to name three. Even younger members/descendants of the diaspora don’t want to go back. It’s like southern Italy in the last century. Talent is fleeing the country much earlier in India’s development as compared to China.

Look at the fertility rate of India this year. China was at this level in 1992. How does the India of today compare to the China of 30 years ago, when China was growing at 12%?

very different in practice because the other East Asian tiger economies did not have the scale that China had, and were supported strongly by foreign powers like US. Korea got $3 billion in aid from the US, 60% of all investment in South Korea from 1953-1968. From 1966-1974, US aid was 20% of all investment in South Korea and 4.5% of GDP.

South Korea - Foreign Economic Relations

countrystudies.us

Imagine if Pakistan got 4.5% of GDP given to it for free.

The only other Asian country that had the scale and independence was Imperial Japan, and they got nuked in the end.

 

[nahtanbob]

China recognizes that Kashmir belongs to Pakistan, but the Indian government dare not recognize Taiwan.

Do you think this makes Indians angry?

China official position is that Kashmir is disputed territory

 

[MH.Yang]

It’s actually started in the East Asian tiger economies from the 1960s-1980s, and Deng Xioping replicated them but on a larger scale. Basically one party rule with full focus on the economy. Confucian principles in the culture respecting authority and a sense of self sacrifice, but it can only last a generation as the nation industrializes, after which the demographics and the debt catch-up.

Could India do it as the largest population in the world and most likely to be looked at as the next possible generator of global growth? Probably not because too many of the little things are disorganized and emotional. rule of law, tax codes, and labor force training just to name three. Even younger members/descendants of the diaspora don’t want to go back. It’s like southern Italy in the last century. Talent is fleeing the country much earlier in India’s development as compared to China.

Look at the fertility rate of India this year. China was at this level in 1992. How does the India of today compare to the China of 30 years ago, when China was growing at 12%?

Fertility and economic reform wise Pakistan is where India was 30 years ago. So if Pakistan can get its act together it has the demographic weight and simple inefficiencies just waiting to be fixed to make it possible that it could catch up to India but it will take a whole generation of it manages itself well.

In 2007, China's GDP was 3.55 trillion US dollars. It is similar to India's GDP(2.9 trillion) in 2021.

However, this does not mean that 2021India has reached the level of 2007China. Because the value of $3 trillion in 2007 is significantly higher than that of $3 trillion in 2021.

I suggest this comparison. In 2021, the global GDP will be 96.1 trillion US dollars. India accounted for 3%. In 1997, the global GDP was 31.62 trillion US dollars. China's GDP is 961.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 3%. So India in 2021 should be equal to China in 1997.

The real economic gap between China and India should be 24 years.

However, from 1990s to 2011, China always maintained an economic growth rate of 10 +%. And India cannot achieve our speed. So if India wants to reach the level of 2021China, it will take far more than 24 years.

 

[FuturePAF]

In 2007, China's GDP was 3.55 trillion US dollars. It is similar to India's GDP(2.9 trillion) in 2021.

However, this does not mean that 2021India has reached the level of 2007China. Because the value of $3 trillion in 2007 is significantly higher than that of $3 trillion in 2021.

I suggest this comparison. In 2021, the global GDP will be 96.1 trillion US dollars. India accounted for 3%. In 1997, the global GDP was 31.62 trillion US dollars. China's GDP is 961.6 billion US dollars, accounting for 3%. So India in 2021 should be equal to China in 1997.

The real economic gap between China and India should be 24 years.

However, from 1990s to 2011, China always maintained an economic growth rate of 10 +%. And India cannot achieve our speed. So if India wants to reach the level of 2021China, it will take far more than 24 years.

The other factor Id I had to take in to account is demographics, it’s TFR is already down to 2.0 as of 2022, but technical education of the workforce is not at the same level as China was in 1997. Global financing will get harder to attract and western countries are looking to onshore as much high end manufacturing as possible, as shown by the recent chips act in the US. India is also experiencing a brain drain as well as some capital flight. They have a strong economy but not comparable to where China’s was 24 years ago.

 

[FuturePAF]

very different in practice because the other East Asian tiger economies did not have the scale that China had, and were supported strongly by foreign powers like US. Korea got $3 billion in aid from the US, 60% of all investment in South Korea from 1953-1968. From 1966-1974, US aid was 20% of all investment in South Korea and 4.5% of GDP.

South Korea - Foreign Economic Relations

countrystudies.us

Imagine if Pakistan got 4.5% of GDP given to it for free.

The only other Asian country that had the scale and independence was Imperial Japan, and they got nuked in the end.

I mentioned in my post China was an order of magnitude larger economy these the Asian tigers. But considering the factors you laid out, yeah any country would grow with that level of investment. This is why Pakistan needs to solve its internal issues and attract FDI. It’s so inefficient in so many industries the room for growth is huge. For example, In Agriculture; The once in a decade mega monsoon rains coupled with proper storage and canals could at least increase arable land by 50 % and with better seeds probably increase exports 3-4 fold in a decade.

Pakistan may not be as successful as China (even per capita) if it fixed its inefficiencies, but it would certainly be a major economy with a population of nearly 400 million by mid-century.

 

[nahtanbob]

I mentioned in my post China was an order of magnitude larger economy these the Asian tigers. But considering the factors you laid out, yeah any country would grow with that level of investment. This is why Pakistan needs to solve its internal issues and attract FDI. It’s so inefficient in so many industries the room for growth is huge. For example, In Agriculture; The once in a decade mega monsoon rains coupled with proper storage and canals could at least increase arable land by 50 % and with better seeds probably increase exports 3-4 fold in a decade.

Pakistan may not be as successful as China (even per capita) if it fixed its inefficiencies, but it would certainly be a major economy with a population of nearly 400 million by mid-century.

you need a competitive advantage in some industry. Otherwise Pakistan is heading for a disaster. Agriculture as practiced in South Asia cannot support high incomes. Baring technological breakthrough Pakistan has a severe energy dependency. Lack of trade with India does not help.