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INDIA TODAY
Pak General's bloodless coup
Army chief General Raheel Sharif is in the driver's seat, winning a counterinsurgency campaign at home and guiding foreign policy, including relations with India
It is not Prime Minister Sharif, but the other Sharif, the general, who dominates the front pages of Pakistani media. Whether it is spending Eid with the troops in North Waziristan, visiting the flood-hit areas or meeting world leaders, it is always the ubiquitous general.
It was the general and not the political leadership who was there to greet the students of the Peshawar school when they returned to their classes, haunted by the memory of the massacre of their schoolmates. Symbolism does matter, particularly, at a time when a national tragedy has occurred.
But it goes beyond symbolism. General Raheel Sharif now seems to be in the driving seat, taking the lead on every major issue. The contrast is more glaring when it comes to the government's lacklustre attitude and the much stronger and definitive stance of the military leadership against violent extremism and militancy. Not surprisingly, the hyperactive general has pushed the military's rating in popular opinion to a new high.
It was not unexpected when the prime minister chose a dark horse as the country's new army chief just a few months after his return to power for the third time in June 2013. General Sharif was third on the seniority list and was not considered a frontrunner for the coveted job. It was Nawaz Sharif's way of playing safe and picking a relatively low-profile officer for the most critical and powerful post.
Having been ousted by his handpicked army chief once and given his history of tumultuous relations with all others holding the post during his past two terms, Nawaz Sharif was more cautious and unsure. Hence an unassuming man with no past baggage and lower down in the seniority list was considered a safe bet. General Sharif's appointment signified a complete break from the Pervez Musharraf-era military hierarchy. But it is not so simple. It is more about institutional rather than individual interests.
The general comes from an illustrious military family that has produced many war heroes. His brother, Shabbir Sharif, received two of the country's highest military awards after he was killed during the 1971 India-Pakistan war. As head of the Pakistan Military Academy and director general (training), General Sharif played a key role in presiding over a change of military thinking since 2007, under which the focus of the army's work is geared more towards fighting Taliban militants.
General Sharif's reputation as a professional soldier notwithstanding, the distrust between Nawaz Sharif and the military was too wide to bridge easily. The standoff between the civil and military leadership over the treason trial of former military ruler General Musharraf was a grim reminder of an uneasy relationship. The prime minister had no choice but to back down on the issue.
The message from the military leadership was loud and clear-it would not let a former army chief stand trial on treason charges. For several weeks, General Musharraf was whisked to the military hospital in Rawalpindi to avoid appearance before a special court that was set up to try him. He stayed there for several weeks and finally appeared before the tribunal after a deal. The tribunal is wound up now and Musharraf is now living freely in his house in Karachi.
General Sharif has proved to be more assertive and decisive than his predecessor General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani who was more calculating and avoided risk taking. While the chain-smoking former chief was subtle in his approach, treading a cautious path when it came to hard decisions, General Sharif is more self-assured although less of a strategic mind. The contrast is too stark.
General Kayani, having served as Inter-Service IntelÂligence chief as well, had a much better perception of the political and internal security situation. He continued to follow the old policy of differentiating between good and bad militants. But Sharif is more clearheaded on the issue: there is no distinction. While General Kayani preferred the civilian government to determine policy direction, General Sharif does not hesitate to take the initiative. For instance, it was his decision to go into North Waziristan and not wait indefinitely for government approval, as had happened under his predecessor.
It is not the first time a military operation is being conducted in the agency that has been described as a "witch's brew"-ridden with all kinds of local and international terrorist groups making it their safe haven. The prolonged indecisiveness of General Kayani and national leadership had made the battle to reclaim the territory more difficult.
Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (right) with General Raheel Sharif
What is most significant, however, is that the military offensive in North Waziristan has brought down the level of militant violence in the country, indicating a direct link between the various terrorist groups to the agency. Although sectarian and religious violence has continued unabated, the capacity of the militant groups to launch major attacks has certainly been curtailed. This has been the biggest achievement of the Pakistani military under General Sharif.
The military's role in internal security has hugely expanded after the Peshawar school massacre last December. Many analysts, however, believe that the military is overstretched now with not only fighting in the tribal areas but also tackling militancy in the mainland.
One of biggest such operations is underway in Karachi, Pakistan's main economic and financial centre with a population of 20 million. Military commanders are now presiding over the provincial action committees set up to implement the National Action Plan against terrorism. It is a further reflection of the civilian administration conceding more and more ground to the military on internal security matters.
Military coups in Pakistan have had a certain element of predictability and imminence. One could see them unfolding. There was nothing subtle about them-always a swift and hard power play. This time, perhaps, a different phenomenon is at play: an incremental shifting of power without tanks rolling on the streets.
The high-profile visit of General Sharif to Washington in November 2014, London and Beijing in January and Moscow in June seems to have further reinforced the perception of a power shift. It is not the first time a Pakistani army chief has visited those capitals, but the kind of interest General Sharif attracted during the trips has been rare, if not unprecedented.
There is a noticeable public perception that the Western allies now consider the Pakistani military as the main decision-maker and are therefore seeking its cooperation in the quest for regional security. Although the military has always had a strong say on key aspects of foreign policy, it now seems to be much more overtly defining overall policy direction. With no full-time foreign minister, the initiative now seems to have completely swung towards General Headquarters.
Relations with India remain a thorny issue between the two Sharifs. It is more about the approach than the substance. The military is believed to have strong reservations over what is described as a one-sided Ufa declaration. But it will not obstruct any move to resume comprehensive talks between the two countries. For sure, there has been a hardening of the military's tone in recent months with the growing tension on the Line of Control and the working boundary.
The allegation of the involvement of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) in fuelling insurgency in the troubled Balochistan province and the western border regions have resulted in further stridency in General Sharif's tenor. The tough stance has struck a chord with the general public sentiment in the country. This situation makes it more difficult for Nawaz Sharif to pursue a conciliatory approach without any positive move from the Narendra Modi government. The upcoming NSA meeting in New Delhi will be monitored very closely by the military leadership.
Another key change has been the improvement of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has struck a rapport with General Sharif. Afghan army officers are now being trained in Pakistan as the security cooperation between the two countries has increased. Recently, Afghan forces launched operations against Pakistani militants taking sanctuary across the border in response to Pakistan's long-standing demand.
There had long been a perception of the Pakistani military establishment as being an obstacle to peace in Afghanistan because of its ties to Taliban leaders operating from the border areas. But there has been a marked change in the situation now with General Sharif playing a key role in facilitating talks between the Taliban and representatives of the Afghan government.
The Murree meeting, the second round of which is currently underway in a hill station outside Islamabad, is being seen as an important first step towards reconciliation and has renewed the possibility of a political settlement in Afghanistan. What gives the Murree meeting real significance is that not only did the two Afghan sides send authorised representatives, but that two other key stakeholders-China and the US-were also in attendance. The death of Mullah Omar and the ensuing power struggle in the Taliban movement has stalled the process. But most analysts agree that the talks could be resumed soon with the possibility of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor being elected as the new Taliban chief. He was instrumental in getting the Taliban to the negotiating table.
Although China and Pakistan have long been strategic partners, their cooperation has hit a new high over the last few years. The relationship has taken a new dimension with greater emphasis on economic cooperation and connectivity. The military has the key role in the implementation of the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan has announced setting up a 10,000-strong special force to protect the projects and the Chinese workers involved in them.
Pakistan is also negotiating a multi-billion-dollar arms deal with China that includes the purchase of eight submarines. According to some analysts, it will be the largest ever defence deal that China has ever signed with any country. This growing cooperation has assumed much greater importance in the fast-changing geopolitics.
It is more of a power-sharing arrangement with the civilian government increasingly being dependent on the army for internal security. The rising profile of General Sharif may be a source concern to Prime Minister Sharif, but he does not seem to be threatened by a possibility of a full military take over. The government's confidence is reinforced by the judicial commission report rejecting Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf leader Imran Khan's allegation of planned and organised rigging in the 2013 elections. The absence of a strong opposition has also given a respite. Nawaz Sharif would not mind the military taking greater space so long as his own government is secured. This arrangement seems to have worked well for both the Sharifs - at least for now.
Army chief General Raheel Sharif is in the driver's seat, winning a counterinsurgency campaign at home and guiding foreign policy, including relations with India : NEIGHBOURS - India Today
Pak General's bloodless coup
Army chief General Raheel Sharif is in the driver's seat, winning a counterinsurgency campaign at home and guiding foreign policy, including relations with India
It is not Prime Minister Sharif, but the other Sharif, the general, who dominates the front pages of Pakistani media. Whether it is spending Eid with the troops in North Waziristan, visiting the flood-hit areas or meeting world leaders, it is always the ubiquitous general.
It was the general and not the political leadership who was there to greet the students of the Peshawar school when they returned to their classes, haunted by the memory of the massacre of their schoolmates. Symbolism does matter, particularly, at a time when a national tragedy has occurred.
But it goes beyond symbolism. General Raheel Sharif now seems to be in the driving seat, taking the lead on every major issue. The contrast is more glaring when it comes to the government's lacklustre attitude and the much stronger and definitive stance of the military leadership against violent extremism and militancy. Not surprisingly, the hyperactive general has pushed the military's rating in popular opinion to a new high.
It was not unexpected when the prime minister chose a dark horse as the country's new army chief just a few months after his return to power for the third time in June 2013. General Sharif was third on the seniority list and was not considered a frontrunner for the coveted job. It was Nawaz Sharif's way of playing safe and picking a relatively low-profile officer for the most critical and powerful post.
Having been ousted by his handpicked army chief once and given his history of tumultuous relations with all others holding the post during his past two terms, Nawaz Sharif was more cautious and unsure. Hence an unassuming man with no past baggage and lower down in the seniority list was considered a safe bet. General Sharif's appointment signified a complete break from the Pervez Musharraf-era military hierarchy. But it is not so simple. It is more about institutional rather than individual interests.
The general comes from an illustrious military family that has produced many war heroes. His brother, Shabbir Sharif, received two of the country's highest military awards after he was killed during the 1971 India-Pakistan war. As head of the Pakistan Military Academy and director general (training), General Sharif played a key role in presiding over a change of military thinking since 2007, under which the focus of the army's work is geared more towards fighting Taliban militants.
General Sharif's reputation as a professional soldier notwithstanding, the distrust between Nawaz Sharif and the military was too wide to bridge easily. The standoff between the civil and military leadership over the treason trial of former military ruler General Musharraf was a grim reminder of an uneasy relationship. The prime minister had no choice but to back down on the issue.
The message from the military leadership was loud and clear-it would not let a former army chief stand trial on treason charges. For several weeks, General Musharraf was whisked to the military hospital in Rawalpindi to avoid appearance before a special court that was set up to try him. He stayed there for several weeks and finally appeared before the tribunal after a deal. The tribunal is wound up now and Musharraf is now living freely in his house in Karachi.
General Sharif has proved to be more assertive and decisive than his predecessor General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani who was more calculating and avoided risk taking. While the chain-smoking former chief was subtle in his approach, treading a cautious path when it came to hard decisions, General Sharif is more self-assured although less of a strategic mind. The contrast is too stark.
General Kayani, having served as Inter-Service IntelÂligence chief as well, had a much better perception of the political and internal security situation. He continued to follow the old policy of differentiating between good and bad militants. But Sharif is more clearheaded on the issue: there is no distinction. While General Kayani preferred the civilian government to determine policy direction, General Sharif does not hesitate to take the initiative. For instance, it was his decision to go into North Waziristan and not wait indefinitely for government approval, as had happened under his predecessor.
It is not the first time a military operation is being conducted in the agency that has been described as a "witch's brew"-ridden with all kinds of local and international terrorist groups making it their safe haven. The prolonged indecisiveness of General Kayani and national leadership had made the battle to reclaim the territory more difficult.
What is most significant, however, is that the military offensive in North Waziristan has brought down the level of militant violence in the country, indicating a direct link between the various terrorist groups to the agency. Although sectarian and religious violence has continued unabated, the capacity of the militant groups to launch major attacks has certainly been curtailed. This has been the biggest achievement of the Pakistani military under General Sharif.
The military's role in internal security has hugely expanded after the Peshawar school massacre last December. Many analysts, however, believe that the military is overstretched now with not only fighting in the tribal areas but also tackling militancy in the mainland.
One of biggest such operations is underway in Karachi, Pakistan's main economic and financial centre with a population of 20 million. Military commanders are now presiding over the provincial action committees set up to implement the National Action Plan against terrorism. It is a further reflection of the civilian administration conceding more and more ground to the military on internal security matters.
Military coups in Pakistan have had a certain element of predictability and imminence. One could see them unfolding. There was nothing subtle about them-always a swift and hard power play. This time, perhaps, a different phenomenon is at play: an incremental shifting of power without tanks rolling on the streets.
The high-profile visit of General Sharif to Washington in November 2014, London and Beijing in January and Moscow in June seems to have further reinforced the perception of a power shift. It is not the first time a Pakistani army chief has visited those capitals, but the kind of interest General Sharif attracted during the trips has been rare, if not unprecedented.
There is a noticeable public perception that the Western allies now consider the Pakistani military as the main decision-maker and are therefore seeking its cooperation in the quest for regional security. Although the military has always had a strong say on key aspects of foreign policy, it now seems to be much more overtly defining overall policy direction. With no full-time foreign minister, the initiative now seems to have completely swung towards General Headquarters.
Relations with India remain a thorny issue between the two Sharifs. It is more about the approach than the substance. The military is believed to have strong reservations over what is described as a one-sided Ufa declaration. But it will not obstruct any move to resume comprehensive talks between the two countries. For sure, there has been a hardening of the military's tone in recent months with the growing tension on the Line of Control and the working boundary.
The allegation of the involvement of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) in fuelling insurgency in the troubled Balochistan province and the western border regions have resulted in further stridency in General Sharif's tenor. The tough stance has struck a chord with the general public sentiment in the country. This situation makes it more difficult for Nawaz Sharif to pursue a conciliatory approach without any positive move from the Narendra Modi government. The upcoming NSA meeting in New Delhi will be monitored very closely by the military leadership.
Another key change has been the improvement of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has struck a rapport with General Sharif. Afghan army officers are now being trained in Pakistan as the security cooperation between the two countries has increased. Recently, Afghan forces launched operations against Pakistani militants taking sanctuary across the border in response to Pakistan's long-standing demand.
There had long been a perception of the Pakistani military establishment as being an obstacle to peace in Afghanistan because of its ties to Taliban leaders operating from the border areas. But there has been a marked change in the situation now with General Sharif playing a key role in facilitating talks between the Taliban and representatives of the Afghan government.
The Murree meeting, the second round of which is currently underway in a hill station outside Islamabad, is being seen as an important first step towards reconciliation and has renewed the possibility of a political settlement in Afghanistan. What gives the Murree meeting real significance is that not only did the two Afghan sides send authorised representatives, but that two other key stakeholders-China and the US-were also in attendance. The death of Mullah Omar and the ensuing power struggle in the Taliban movement has stalled the process. But most analysts agree that the talks could be resumed soon with the possibility of Mullah Akhtar Mansoor being elected as the new Taliban chief. He was instrumental in getting the Taliban to the negotiating table.
Although China and Pakistan have long been strategic partners, their cooperation has hit a new high over the last few years. The relationship has taken a new dimension with greater emphasis on economic cooperation and connectivity. The military has the key role in the implementation of the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan has announced setting up a 10,000-strong special force to protect the projects and the Chinese workers involved in them.
Pakistan is also negotiating a multi-billion-dollar arms deal with China that includes the purchase of eight submarines. According to some analysts, it will be the largest ever defence deal that China has ever signed with any country. This growing cooperation has assumed much greater importance in the fast-changing geopolitics.
It is more of a power-sharing arrangement with the civilian government increasingly being dependent on the army for internal security. The rising profile of General Sharif may be a source concern to Prime Minister Sharif, but he does not seem to be threatened by a possibility of a full military take over. The government's confidence is reinforced by the judicial commission report rejecting Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf leader Imran Khan's allegation of planned and organised rigging in the 2013 elections. The absence of a strong opposition has also given a respite. Nawaz Sharif would not mind the military taking greater space so long as his own government is secured. This arrangement seems to have worked well for both the Sharifs - at least for now.
Army chief General Raheel Sharif is in the driver's seat, winning a counterinsurgency campaign at home and guiding foreign policy, including relations with India : NEIGHBOURS - India Today
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