India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report

[Paan Singh]

2030 is too much early.I will bet on 2035-40 not before.

 

[JayAtl]

any other source not TOI

The source is the US intelligence report, TOI was basically reporting contents within.

 

[for truth]

How about a economic union of sorts between India, china, Russia ,South Korea and japan?-- like that of EU.

 

[faithfulguy]

2030 is way too early for India to surpass China, just 18 years? In the next 20 year China will continue to grow at about 6-7 % a year. No way, impossible. Perhaps by 2050-2060.

They are talking about absolute growth increase, not surpass the size of economy. But I won't make this prediction until India can consistently grow faster than China for 3 straight years. There was a talk of India surpass China's economic rate of growth in 2012. But it never happened. So that has to happen first before making any other predictions.

 

[faithfulguy]

I recently read somewhere that a big company in China has 'nets' around its factory to catch workers who jump off to commit suicide. Several had already died, very sad

China and other countries must create better conditions for workers, we are not machines.

Yes, and its a Taiwanese company called Foxconn.

 

[Icecreamcart]

It'll be better if India exceeds China's growth due to competitiveness and reforms rather than exceeding China's growth because China's economy tanks and goes the way of Japan.

 

[jhungary]

There is already talk of scrapping the one child policy for a two child one in 2013 or 2015 and getting rid of it in 2020 completely, as for skilled immigration maybe possibly from Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia.

That's logically, as one child policy will produce more Girl than boy and not 50:50 (Becaus of the choromosome (SP??))
Either they need to scrap the 1 child policy pronto or they need to allow second wive....Just kidding.......

About skill migrant, i am thinking more align to Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, or even western civilization like Australia. You don't want more lower skill type person but middle skill type and managment class. You can fill the lower class worker or blue collar worker from local school or from retraining people from other field. I think China have more worker than managment can handle...

I might be wrong as last time i went to China is 2010...

 

[acid rain]

It'll be better if India exceeds China's growth due to competitiveness and reforms rather than exceeding China's growth because China's economy tanks and goes the way of Japan.

That will be a big challenge for India, as for both India and China a big hindrance for growth will be fulfilling energy needs and there is a big scramble by both countries to lock on to energy sources.

 

[Hasbara Buster]

They are talking about absolute growth increase, not surpass the size of economy. But I won't make this prediction until India can consistently grow faster than China for 3 straight years. There was a talk of India surpass China's economic rate of growth in 2012. But it never happened. So that has to happen first before making any other predictions.

Oh ok, I apologize. It happens when you're sleep-deprived

 

[Arav_Rana]

To US intelligence report - You are drunk. Go home.

 

[Viet]

Growth is slowing mainly due to the aging population & the one child policy, China has allowed North Koreans & Vietnamese to make up for some labor shortages, but even then that will not cut it adjusting the one child policy to a two child policy or scrapping it completely will make up for the problems.

I wonder at how many threads and articles are created (and will be created) on China growth. Seems everybody is concerned.

Sure, China growth has slowed a bit but is still higher than most of other nations, including fast growing South East Asia. However, double digit growth rate cannot no longer be achieved as China is now a middle income country, on the way to a high income.

Opening labor market can ease some labor shortages, though Koreans as well as Vietnamese laborers are a drop in an ocean. Increased birth rate can help as China has enough resources to feed the people.

 

[Pakchina]

The India outpacing China myth has been around since 2002/2003. Each year, they predict, it is, either China would collapse or India would surpass China. According to all these western predictors, even the Economist, India was supposed to surpass China by 2008. Then after 2008, when nothing happened, the gap between China and India had even increased, the Western predictors had then forecasted India to surpass China by 2010, but again nothing happened, the gap has even increased in favour of China, and India is still lagging well behind China, while it is other nations like Brazil, Indonesia which are likely to surpass India. Commonsense analysis: how a country which is still 5 to 10 ranks below China could surpass it in just 15 years? India is 30 years behind China in terms of infrastructure, industrial capacity etc. So how could it surpass China in just 15 years. Moreover, if this would really happen, then, India would have already surpassed France, UK and even Germany by 2012. Now India was supposed to be the World number three economy in order to achieve this. Have these predictors ever visited Guangzhou, Shenzhen etc that is secondary Chinese cities and compared them to the top Indian cities? There is at least 30 to 50 years of difference between them. While Chinese secondary cities are ultra modern, Indian top cities are just stranded in under development or still in the phase of developing. See the infrastructure, organization, entertainment that exist in these Chinese cities which are even more important compared to London, Paris etc. In Shenzhen, for instance, which is much more modern than London, Manchester, Paris etc, the metro runway is higher compared to the top European cities, high speed train connects the major Chinese cities, a recent one has been inaugurated connecting Guangzhou and Beijing. The skyscrapers in Shenzhen and Shanghai are even more important than in Dubai. Before surpassing China, better for the Western predictoros to forecast when India would surpass, UK, France, Germany and Japan. Anyway let these predictors dream while China is now the second world economy, this is a fact and not prediction.

 

[Hellraiser007]

The India outpacing China myth has been around since 2002/2003. Each year, they predict, it is, either China would collapse or India would surpass China. According to all these western predictors, even the Economist, India was supposed to surpass China by 2008. Then after 2008, when nothing happened, the gap between China and India had even increased, the Western predictors had then forecasted India to surpass China by 2010, but again nothing happened, the gap has even increased in favour of China, and India is still lagging well behind China, while it is other nations like Brazil, Indonesia which are likely to surpass India. Commonsense analysis: how a country which is still 5 to 10 ranks below China could surpass it in just 15 years? India is 30 years behind China in terms of infrastructure, industrial capacity etc. So how could it surpass China in just 15 years. Moreover, if this would really happen, then, India would have already surpassed France, UK and even Germany by 2012. Now India was supposed to be the World number three economy in order to achieve this. Have these predictors ever visited Guangzhou, Shenzhen etc that is secondary Chinese cities and compared them to the top Indian cities? There is at least 30 to 50 years of difference between them. While Chinese secondary cities are ultra modern, Indian top cities are just stranded in under development or still in the phase of developing. See the infrastructure, organization, entertainment that exist in these Chinese cities which are even more important compared to London, Paris etc. In Shenzhen, for instance, which is much more modern than London, Manchester, Paris etc, the metro runway is higher compared to the top European cities, high speed train connects the major Chinese cities, a recent one has been inaugurated connecting Guangzhou and Beijing. The skyscrapers in Shenzhen and Shanghai are even more important than in Dubai. Before surpassing China, better for the Western predictoros to forecast when India would surpass, UK, France, Germany and Japan. Anyway let these predictors dream while China is now the second world economy, this is a fact and not prediction.

India has its own business model and not going by US intelligence report, The margin between India and China will be reduced to a large extent within next decade.

 

[Kyusuibu Honbu]

First of all let me congratulate on making a clean post, unlike the traditional ones full of juvenile insults and racism.

The India outpacing China myth has been around since 2002/2003. Each year, they predict, it is, either China would collapse or India would surpass China. According to all these western predictors, even the Economist, India was supposed to surpass China by 2008. Then after 2008, when nothing happened, the gap between China and India had even increased, the Western predictors had then forecasted India to surpass China by 2010, but again nothing happened,

The predictions were about Indian economic growth rate surpassing that of China's

And in 2010 India's economic growth rate did surpass China's, though by small value.

India - 10.4

China - 10.3

India outpaces China
Winning the growth World Cup

India is 30 years behind China in terms of infrastructure, industrial capacity etc.

How do you define behind in terms of infrastructure, industrial capacity. What are the parameters being reffered?.

Can you atlest provide Chinese data for 1980 for the parameters to compare?

Have these predictors ever visited Guangzhou, Shenzhen etc that is secondary Chinese cities and compared them to the top Indian cities? There is at least 30 to 50 years of difference between them.

??????????????? one more chronological mental breakdown?

Define the parameters again for Guangzhou, Shenzhen and provide statistics for 1980 or 1960 for the respective cities.

I"ll respond by providing current data for top Indian cities.

 

[Pakchina]

Simple commonsense fact. If India was to outpace China in 30 years, India's growth rate should have been at least 12% in 2012 onwards. What we see in 2012? China's growth rate is greater than India and the actual economic crisis has hit India harder in 2012 while China's industrial output and investment have jumped signalling a recovery. China's growth rate has always surpassed that on India and China's boom started in the 1980's. Regarding 2010, I don't have the data but lets us check from the World Bank and IMF data. But that small margin over China will never permit India to surpass China, except if India maintains this small margin for 100 years. Parallel to that lets see the part of China's World trade compared to that of India. Stop dreaming and making prediction, face the actual reality, China the second world economy and India is still lagging well behind. Better trying to predict when China will outpace the US, something which will happen in just 5 years and not in 30 years.