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India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report

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WASHINGTON: It might be hard to visualize or believe in today's messy, gridlocked, turmoil-ridden subcontinent, but the US intelligence community in a new report released on Monday says by 2030, a surging India, along with decelerating China, will straddle global commerce and dominate the world economy amid the gradual decline of the west.

They won't be doing it in tandem. China has powered ahead, but India's turn will come after 2015 even as China's fortunes start receding. But by 2030, Asia, fueled by India as much as China, "will be well on its way to returning to being the world's powerhouse, just as it was before 1500," says "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds," a report issued by the US National Intelligence Council, the brains' trust of the US intelligence community. Pakistan will be a no-show and may not even exist.

The report shows that India will surge ahead after 2020 even as China begins to wane or decelerate, mainly on account of demographic changes which will see China aging before India. "As the world's largest economic power, China is expected to remain ahead of India, but the gap could begin to close by 2030. India's rate of economic growth is likely to rise while China's slows," the report says, adding, "In 2030 India could be the rising economic powerhouse that China is seen to be today. China's current economic growth rate -- 8 to 10 percent -- will probably be a distant memory."

According to the report, the total size of the Chinese working-age population will peak in 2016 and decline from 994 million to about 961 million in 2030. In contrast, India's working-age population is unlikely to peak until about 2050. In terms of timeline, India's demographic window of opportunity is between 2015 to 2050, whereas China's is 1990 to 2025. In contrast, the US fecundity was at its best between 1970 to 2015, presaging the country's gradual decline. India's median age, currently at 26, will be 32 by 2030, still the lowest among the top ten economies in the world.

The report forecasts that sometime after 2030, India, not China will have the world's largest middle-class consumption, bigger than US and EU combined. But both China and India, it says, faces the prospect of being trapped in middle-income status, with their per capita income not continuing to increase to the level of the world's advanced economies unless they resolve their resource constraints (mainly water, energy, food) and invest more in science and technology to continue to move their economy up the value chain.

Indeed, the India-China economic journey is not without hurdles or pitfalls, especially with regards to the global scrap for resources and the effects of climate change. But if they surmount the difficulties and things pan out well, India and China will dominate a world in 2030 that will largely be "middle-class, not poor, which has been the condition of most people throughout human history."

India to outpace China by 2030: US intelligence report - The Times of India
 
the report forgot the fact that China is surrounded by many poor countries with high population growth rate,therefore China can always have the option of opening her labor market to poor neighboring countries when there is a need.China has superb manufacturing facilities and road systems which are decades away for India to match,with the influx of cheap foreign workers,China still holds a huge advantage over India.besides,China dosen't have to pay for their retiringment and social medicare or something like that,that will save China a huge amount of money.moreover,young people will also grow old,if the report cares more about the future,why not say something about how India will support their huge aging population when the time comes.
 
the report forgot the fact that China is surrounded by many poor countries with high population growth rate,therefore China can always have the option of opening her labor market to poor neighboring countries when there is a need.China has superb manufacturing facilities and road systems which are decades away for India to match,with the influx of cheap foreign workers,China still holds a huge advantage over India.besides,China dosen't have to pay for their retiringment and social medicare or something like that,that will save China a huge amount of money.moreover,young people will also grow old,if the report cares more about the future,why not say something about how India will support their huge aging population when the time comes.

I agree with you. But using other countries will not make China grow at the same rate of 9-10%.
 
China:
Amazing manufacturing industry
efficient and fast system
huge investments turned into reality
awsome infrastructure, roads, ports and residential buildings.
has a strong domestic services industry

India
has a decent manufacturing industry but lacks in labuor intensive manufacturing
govt now realizes the importance of manufacturing and the new manufacturing policy is the new game changer. Govt has given manufacturing top priority for the next 3 decades.
dedicated freight corridor of 2000 km is going to be the new investment hub.
infrastructure is bad but improving at a quick pace.
has a very strong export led services industry.
 
2030 is way too early for India to surpass China, just 18 years? In the next 20 year China will continue to grow at about 6-7 % a year. No way, impossible. Perhaps by 2050-2060.
 
the report forgot the fact that China is surrounded by many poor countries with high population growth rate,therefore China can always have the option of opening her labor market to poor neighboring countries when there is a need.China has superb manufacturing facilities and road systems which are decades away for India to match,with the influx of cheap foreign workers,China still holds a huge advantage over India.besides,China dosen't have to pay for their retiringment and social medicare or something like that,that will save China a huge amount of money.moreover,young people will also grow old,if the report cares more about the future,why not say something about how India will support their huge aging population when the time comes.

Growth is slowing mainly due to the aging population & the one child policy, China has allowed North Koreans & Vietnamese to make up for some labor shortages, but even then that will not cut it adjusting the one child policy to a two child policy or scrapping it completely will make up for the problems.
 
Philippine, 50 years ago, it is very rich comparing with other south asia countries, but now, you know it!!
It is also democratic country, and its geographic location is also very good, Even through some typhoons, it has young people, bigger population than Singapore and Malaysia, but why not only per GDP or Overall GDP, they behind them? can't grasp the opportunities?

Most of prediction are sh!t, don't trust so-called expert, just trust your action.
 
I agree with you. But using other countries will not make China grow at the same rate of 9-10%.

China already imports Vietnamese and North Koreans the best option is a two child policy or scrapping the one child policy and encouraging a population growth.
 
India has lots of troubles to deal with so it will be better that they concentrate on fixing them rather than taking on to out grow any one. It does not really matter where India will be in 2030 as long as it keep of improving and providing job & food to the poor.

Such reports should not be taken seriously but media just can not live without being acting sensationalist.. I am sick of such reports appear in TOI and other outlets..

China already imports Vietnamese and North Koreans the best option is a two child policy or scrapping the one child policy and encouraging a population growth.

I think it will be wise for China to adopt two child policy. You guys have enough resources now to be able to support a few more mouths.
 
China will slow down due to natural reasons. Growth revival is easier said than done. China's pie is now too damm big and eventually it will become hard to grow it more bigger.

On the other hand India slowly but steadily keep developing its manufacturing sector with a strong services sector.

fact: India will remain behind China for decades to come. Both will have similiar capabilities in science, space, manufacturing but China will be always be ahead in power projection and quantity.
 
Philippine, 50 years ago, it is very rich comparing with other south asia countries, but now, you know it!!
It is also democratic country, and its geographic location is also very good, Even through some typhoons, it has young people, bigger population than Singapore and Malaysia, but why not only per GDP or Overall GDP, they behind them? can't grasp the opportunities?

Most of prediction are sh!t, don't trust so-called expert, just trust your action.

I personally don't believe in any economic predication's made by the west they tend to be highly inaccurate stated in 2016 china would surpass the USA then 2020 then 2025 now 2030, The USA economy despite slowdown will continue to grow and will be the top economy for some time even in 2030.
 
China already imports Vietnamese and North Koreans the best option is a two child policy or scrapping the one child policy and encouraging a population growth.

I think China need skilled immigrant, even scraping the 1 child policy will not do much as either today family who can pay would have more tha n1 child to go for a boy, if a family cannot pay then they will not be able to raise 2 or more anyway.

Don't get me wrong, 1 child policy is the center of the problem, but getting rid of them now will not solve anything, it will solve the long term problem but skill migrant is what China need, they don't need lower class laborer but middle class skill worker or middle class managment.
 
By 2050, 20 pc of India's population will be old: UN

India's population is likely to increase by 60 per cent between 2000 and 2050 but the number of elders, who have attained 60 years of age, will shoot up by 360 per cent and the government should start framing policies now else its consequences are likely to take it by surprise, a UN report said.

"India has around 100 million elderly at present and the number is expected to increase to 323 million, constituting 20 per cent of the total population, by 2050," the report jointly brought out by United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and Help Age International said.

With an emphasis on addressing urgent concerns of elderly person worldwide like investment in pension and quality health care, the report said if these are not addressed promptly, the consequences of these issues are likely to take unprepared countries by surprise.

"In order to realise their right to enjoy the highest attainable standard of physical and mental health, elder persons must have access to age-friendly and affordable information and services that meet their demands," the report added.

By 2050, 20 pc of India's population will be old: UN - Rediff.com News
 

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