India To Become $10 Trillion Economy by 2026

[dray]

It was a one time deal due to the constant FDI, jobs and industry throughput India had been receiving for years. Plus you guys started to list salaries and operational expenses for offshore Indian employees as "FDI" and other items as such. Which on paper showed the GDP doubling. Nations with 1 billion population don't just double over night without doubling up the entire population's human growth in all aspects, as the growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is spread across the entire nation work and growth output. So if you see different markets, somehow, without having associated human improvement the GDP doubled up . You should try to fool someone who's dumb as shiit, not here. Cooking books and meals doesn't mean the "projected growth" was real . But despite that, India is growing rapidly and she will get to a $ 5 or 6 trillion economy around 2026-2028!



You don't have to agree with me. People high on blind patriotism are way the heck away from reality. You can answer my post in 2026 and the results will be a shocker for you

It just gives you some mental peace thinking that our previous growth was an one time deal due to FDI. And I don't want to take away that mental peace from you by sharing data on our current flow of FDI, infrastructure building, etc. Live in peace.

 

[randomradio]

It was a one time deal due to the constant FDI, jobs and industry throughput India had been receiving for years. Plus you guys started to list salaries and operational expenses for offshore Indian employees as "FDI" and other items as such. Which on paper showed the GDP doubling. Nations with 1 billion population don't just double over night without doubling up the entire population's human growth in all aspects, as the growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is spread across the entire nation work and growth output. So if you see different markets, somehow, without having associated human improvement the GDP doubled up . You should try to fool someone who's dumb as shiit, not here. Cooking books and meals doesn't mean the "projected growth" was real . But despite that, India is growing rapidly and she will get to a $ 5 or 6 trillion economy around 2026-2028!



You don't have to agree with me. People high on blind patriotism are way the heck away from reality. You can answer my post in 2026 and the results will be a shocker for you

China's GDP grew from $1800B in 2005 to $10000B in 2015, a growth of 6 times.
India's GDP grew from $750B in 2005 to $2200B in 2015, a growth of 3 times.

China effectively grew twice as fast because India relatively stopped growing from 2010 to 2015. In fact, India's GDP doubled from $750B to $1500B in 5 years, from 2005-2010, so why can't it quadruple in 10?

If policies are effective and growth is sustained, then even a 6 times growth is possible, like the case of China, which is exactly what the OP video claims. He is looking at the best case scenario for India.

But all of the above is just dollar growth, dependent on currency exchange fluctuation. If you want a more reasonable growth that you can calculate without confusion, then you have to look at PPP.

In 2005, China's PPP GDP was $5T and it grew to about $20T in 2015. That's 4x growth.
In 2005, India's PPP GDP was $3T and it grew to about $9T in 2015. That's 3x growth.

So 4x growth is possible and realistic in a 10 year period.

 

[Nimitam]

My estimate, which has historically been pretty darn close, is that India will be around a $ 5-6 Trillion economy (+- 200 Billion or 2% MOE) by 2025 (which is serious growth). In 2014, India hit $ 2 Trillion. So a country over her 70 years of history and the size of the economy ($ 2+ trillion), can't just "Quadruple Up" in the next ten years. It doesn't work like that.

If you want to go towards $ 8,9,10 T mark, add more years, I'd imagine 2035 to 2038 is when it can happen.

Indian GDP in 2007 was 1.08 Trillion $ and by 2014 it was 2.04 Trillion $. with and average growth rate of 6.5%.

Current average growth rate is 7.5%.

So by 2020 the economy should double to 4 billion $ and by 2026 it should be closer to 8 Billion $ if this reasonable pace continues.

With a marked improvement in governance, a much higher growth rate should be possible and best case scenario can certainly make 10 trillion $ a reality.

 

[Grevion]

Guys...let's see some hard figures.

1. During 2004-2014 China's nominal GDP has grown by 5 times (5.33 times exactly) with an average annual growth rate of a little less than 10%.

2. During 2000-2010 India's nominal GDP has grown by close to 4 times (3.62 times exactly) with an average annual growth rate of just 7.22%.

India's GDP:

Year 2000 : $474,692,000,000
Year 2005 : $834,215,000,000
Year 2010 : $1,710,910,000,000

We are already more than $2 trillion economy, an average annual growth rate of 7.5% or so can make us a $10 trillion economy in next 10 years. And that's very much possible if things remain on track, considering that our rupee has heavily depreciated from it's 2006-07 level, and it is going to appreciate eventually with a stronger economy.

Just keep in mind the difference between real and nominal growth rate.

@fsayed @temporary12345 @HypocriteHunter @baba1998 @itachii @litefire @randomradio @Nilgiri @kaykay @Kal Muah

Rupee appreciation will help us in the long run but say till 2026 it will not appreciate more then 8-7% and that is actually good for us.
As to the debate going on here about the inflation adjustments one needs to understand that the inflation rate of more then 5% is not considered ideal in a developing economy. While I am not saying that a 10 trillion economy is impossible to achieve till 2026 but for that a lots needs to be done in the segments such as infra and most importantly agricultural and manufacturing. Which means more investment(there is only so much FDI can do)needed and the govt. needs to cut out more on subsidies and that will not be a reality in the current system.
Remember how the rupee fell the day after the food security bill was passed in the parliament. We need to stop spending our money on such things.

 

[Who.Cares]

India to become superpower by 2012: Kalam
PTIMay 2, 2008, 05.13pm IST
http://articles.economictimes.india...s/28389376_1_space-programme-kalam-superpower

Only C ban sakta hai.

 

[BetterPakistan]

Achieving those growth figures is not difficult, especially if the govt doesn't change for another term and agriculture growth picks up.

The main issue is currency depreciation. Since 2012 the rupee has deteriorated rapidly in just 4 years. It's good for some and bad for some, but such a large depreciation isn't good for a resources import dependent economy like India, especially when imports of resources is as big as our govt spending. A country like China importing 5 mbpd of oil is nothing compared to India importing 3.5 mbpd.

Depending on currency fluctuation, we can remain a $2-3T economy even in 2026 or even surpass $10T. Of course, it doesn't mean India has not grown, it's only an exchange rate, and most of the economy is not dependent on currency fluctuations. India has a net influx of money, so if a company plans on investing $1B in India, and before they do it the currency depreciates, then they have more rupees when they convert, so they can put more money into the economy.

Without the fall in currency from 2012, India would have been a $4T economy today. But if the currency didn't depreciate, then CAD would have been higher today which is not good considering the economic environment. If UPA had made good policies and done proper reforms, then India would have had robust growth and the currency would not have depreciated so much. No point crying over spilt milk, but history could repeat.

I understand what you are trying to say and currency devaluation isn't the only hurdle to tackle because for such big economy reaching double digits GDP growth is difficult, hope you understand what I am talking about.

 

[randomradio]

I understand what you are trying to say and currency devaluation isn't the only hurdle to tackle because for such big economy reaching double digits GDP growth is difficult, hope you understand what I am talking about.

Agriculture growth was 1.1% last year due to bad monsoons, normally it is 4+%. Services sector is growing slowly because it's in a downturn, like agriculture. It only grew at 9% last year, it should go back to 11+%. Traditional industries that were part of previous calculation are facing extremely slow growth, less than 5%. Only new industries that are now part of new calculation are growing, pushing industrial growth to 9.8%. Industrial demand may be growing at 9.8%, but it is not enough because there is a lack of demand from rural and urban India because of the slowdown in other sectors.

Only this year has industry started growing properly again. Basically, everybody in India are now talking about a recovery. We are now waiting for a bountiful monsoon this year, which is going to be crucial for double digit growth because India has been in two consecutive droughts. Growth in agriculture was 4.7% in 2013, -0.2% in 2014, 1.1% in 2015.

http://articles.economictimes.india...1411_1_ds-pai-el-nino-climate-forecast-system

So India is coming out of a recession at 7.9% now. Give it time and you will see the economy in full steam.

 

[ziaulislam]

1. Chinese GDP ,25 years ago, was only $392 Billion. They grew nearly 26 times in 25 years. Indian economy today is around $2.4 Trillion and to reach $10 Trillion, it only needs to grow around by 4 times. With Chinese growth rate (rate during their expansion, not today), India would actually become around $18 Trillion economy by 2026, conservatively. I know India would not become that large because as it would grow, its growth rate would naturally slow down, but until it reaches double digit GDP in trillions, it is bound to accelerate at around 10% growth rate. after which growth would depend upon whether India could transform its economy from "serving western companies" to "building its own brands and increase local consumption" or not. If it could not transform, it would remain struck in "middle income trap" ,something similar to what China is facing. If it does, it would grow at this high rate until its per-capita income become similar to western per-capita incomes.

2. India only need to grow at 15% nominal to become $10 trillion economy by 2026 ie around 8-9% real, something which is quite sustainable.

your maths is wrong
not wise to quote historical data today as initially third world country saw massive growth
india econmy as of today is less than 2 trillion per official data from state bank of india
this will help
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/gdp-growth-annual/forecast

 

[Kashmiri Pandit]

At best it would be around 6 Trillion dollars with current exchange rates .

 

[C130]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IMF_ranked_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)

interest to see besides China,U.S, and India everyone else economies barely grow or are stagnant.in comparison

 

[Centurion2016]

Current GDP around $2.2 TRILLION and 7th largest in the world

Current growth rates around 7%

I see hitting $3 trillion plus in 2020 AND overtaking France & UK into 5th place

I see a huge increase inn FDI which is currently around $40 billon a year and reforms and infrasucture projevcts pushing growth to 8 or 9% per year post 2020

This means india will reach $7 trillion around 2026

BUT IF RUPEE DEVALUES then it could be $8 trillion plus

either way india is set to be the 3rd most powerful GDP in the world by 2026 or 2027

 

[temporary12345]

your maths is wrong
not wise to quote historical data today as initially third world country saw massive growth
india econmy as of today is less than 2 trillion per official data from state bank of india
this will help

1. Maths is correct.

2. Historical data regarding China has validity as it too started from same circumstances. Unless you are arguing that Chinese are some kind of magical creatures and what applies on them does not apply on anyone. And historical data was provided as an example, not as an argument.

3. State bank of India is a merchant bank. It does not provide GDP estimates.

4. What official data?? No data from any agency state that Indian GDP is less than $2 Trillion for 2016. India had GDP of less than $2 Trillion way back in 2014. India's GDP as of now is around $2.3-$2.4 Trillion.

At best it would be around 6 Trillion dollars with current exchange rates .

That is at worst. Check posts in this thread. If India maintains real GDP growth of 8% pa, it would easily become $10 Trillion economy by 2026.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_IMF_ranked_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)

interest to see besides China,U.S, and India everyone else economies barely grow or are stagnant.in comparison

Europe does not have any scope of growth, while for others, GDP is growing but you do not perceive it as absolute increase is less (even if % increase is quite high).

 

[Centurion2016]

india is currently growing annually around 7 or 7.5 % annually

That's faster than china who has slowed tom under 7%

50% faster than other BRICS nations and emerging markets

Three as fast as USA

AND 4 times as fast as Euro Zone

India is the fsasterst growomg of all TOP 20 largest economies in nthe world

pretty impressive considdrimg

30% of population in poverty

 

[ziaulislam]

1. Maths is correct.

2. Historical data regarding China has validity as it too started from same circumstances. Unless you are arguing that Chinese are some kind of magical creatures and what applies on them does not apply on anyone. And historical data was provided as an example, not as an argument.

3. State bank of India is a merchant bank. It does not provide GDP estimates.

4. What official data?? No data from any agency state that Indian GDP is less than $2 Trillion for 2016. India had GDP of less than $2 Trillion way back in 2014. India's GDP as of now is around $2.3-$2.4 Trillion.




That is at worst. Check posts in this thread. If India maintains real GDP growth of 8% pa, it would easily become $10 Trillion economy by 2026.



Europe does not have any scope of growth, while for others, GDP is growing but you do not perceive it as absolute increase is less (even if % increase is quite high).

i cant argue with some one who cannot do simple maths
come back in 2020 and post here

 

[Centurion2016]

Zia

theres no argument

this 21st century is the Asian century and its all about india and china

why do you think modi gets red carpet where ever he goes.

Even you know this .............its hurtful to admit it but hey its the current world order