India To Become $10 Trillion Economy by 2026

[Centurion2016]

PEOPLE regardless of whether india is $4 trillion or $6 trillion or $10 trillion by 2026 its fairly certain by 2026 india should have over taken Germany to become the 4th largest economy in the world.

The rest is really academic

http://www.statista.com/statistics/268173/countries-with-the-largest-gross-domestic-product-gdp/


This states india at $2.3 trillion GDP is on outside lane ready to dart past France & UK in the next 36 months.

India is growing around 3 times as fast as Germany france UK even USA annually.

ITS A FORGONE CONCLUSION just when it happens

 

[That Guy]

I understand your skepticism, but what are the IMF's words exactly?

Their data clearly shows India has achieved 18% total nominal growth for a good span of years I mentioned before reaching as high as 30% as the gentleman earlier quoted.

The way I see it the worst case scenario is the base IMF prediction continuing to 2026 and reaching around 6 trillion or so USD. The best case scenario could very well be 10 trillion depending mostly on the appreciation "rubber band" flexing back and the level this happens. So 6 - 10 trillion in nominal amounts is not a bad estimate range, we will have to wait and see what materialises of course. The IMF has got projections very conservative in the past (you will often see this mainfest in their data even when there are sudden "jumps" like the 30% growth year that they insert to try smoothen out their overall data/projection curves)....because the IMF knows it cannot predict the nominal USD climate to any degree of high precision given only the US fed prints US dollars and no other country does....hence this thing called the exchange rate which is another can of worms to deal with when projecting (its nigh impossible during growth spurts of countries compared to fundamentals like investment rate "transfer" to growth).

Thats why its more important to be concerned with PPP in the first place, since that represents the actual physical consumption thats going on rather than the straight exchange of its local currency worth into USD.

The IMF's base prediction by 2020 is $3.44 trillion GDP, based upon current trends, and the world bank seems to have a similar prediction. That is a little over a trillion dollar growth within the next 4 fiscal years. If we're to believe these numbers, and I do, then I seriously doubt India will be able to reach $10 trillion by 2026.

 

[Nilgiri]

The IMF's base prediction by 2020 is $3.44 trillion GDP, based upon current trends, and the world bank seems to have a similar prediction. That is a little over a trillion dollar growth within the next 4 fiscal years. If we're to believe these numbers, and I do, then I seriously doubt India will be able to reach $10 trillion by 2026.

Have you looked at the increments China was adding pre 2002ish and post 2002ish. We are about at that stage now.

Again its nominal operationalisation which is way less important than actual physical consumption anyway. Should we be concerned about what the goods we consume are worth in USD because of the exchange rate via the INR....or what we are actually consuming?

Have a read of post 87 by this member to get an idea of just how irrelevant this facet of the discussion is anyways from another perspective:

https://defence.pk/threads/india-to-become-10-trillion-economy-by-2026.434500/page-6#post-8376464

The IMF base prediction does not ever factor in the appreciation/depreciation long term trends of a currency since those are governed by factors way beyond what it can predict. Thats why they totally underpredicted China nominal economy for a good 15 years or so.

 

[That Guy]

Have you looked at the increments China was adding pre 2002ish and post 2002ish. We are about at that stage now.

Again its nominal operationalisation which is way less important than actual physical consumption anyway. Should we be concerned about what the goods we consume are worth in USD because of the exchange rate via the INR....or what we are actually consuming?

Have a read of post 87 by this member to get an idea of just how irrelevant this facet of the discussion is anyways from another perspective:

https://defence.pk/threads/india-to-become-10-trillion-economy-by-2026.434500/page-6#post-8376464

The IMF base prediction does not ever factor in the appreciation/depreciation long term trends of a currency since those are governed by factors way beyond what it can predict. Thats why they totally underpredicted China nominal economy for a good 15 years or so.

The difference is that the China had a lot of credit, as it owned a lot of US debt (and still does), this gave China ample cash to embark on huge development projects, spending as much as $600 billion within a 6-8 year period just on infrastructure.

As for the point, I don't necessarily agree with #87, but I can see the point.

Over all, my point isn't if India will reach $10 trillion, it is a matter of when. It's a similar story with Pakistan, even with a weak economy, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when Pakistan will become a trillion dollar nominal GDP economy.

 

[Nilgiri]

Over all, my point isn't if India will reach $10 trillion, it is a matter of when. It's a similar story with Pakistan, even with a weak economy, it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when Pakistan will become a trillion dollar nominal GDP economy.

Overall my point is it doesnt matter when we reach an "X" level by nominal USD terms....since PPP consumption is what matters significantly more.

 

[randomradio]

The difference is that the China had a lot of credit, as it owned a lot of US debt (and still does), this gave China ample cash to embark on huge development projects, spending as much as $600 billion within a 6-8 year period just on infrastructure.

Buying dollars is not a big deal.

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/B9...o-buy-dollars-as-it-keeps-rupee-in-check.html

“The RBI has been consistently buying dollars since October 2013. Between then and now, a one-year period, the RBI has bought $40.15 billion,” Bhattacharya said, adding that he expects the RBI to continue with its dollar buying in the near future.

“Currently, with $316 billion of foreign exchange reserves, India covers more than eight months of exports. I expect the RBI to continue buying dollars till the country covers 10 to 11 months of imports, which means they could buy dollars until reserves reach $400 billion,” Bhattacharya said.

You purchase dollars only so you can have a trade buffer which you can use during crisis.

China has a huge trade surplus, that's why are dumping their reserves. And their currency will soon be internationally exchanged.

Fixing overvalued and undervalued currencies is risky business, especially for countries like the US and China which can create ripple effect all across the world. And fixing China's overvalued currency would mean they could lose $1T in GDP in a single night. What a joke predictions are.

The best predictions are PPP. At least they are consistent.

 

[temporary12345]

In other words, my skepticism was correct. Not only did you not actually prove yourself right, but failed spectacularly at proving me wrong.

Thanks, but I'll take the IMF's words, rather than yours.

In that case, could you enlighten us as to what should be nominal GDP growth rate for India to become $10 Trillion economy by 2016?

 

[Kashmiri Pandit]

1. Maths is correct.

2. Historical data regarding China has validity as it too started from same circumstances. Unless you are arguing that Chinese are some kind of magical creatures and what applies on them does not apply on anyone. And historical data was provided as an example, not as an argument.

3. State bank of India is a merchant bank. It does not provide GDP estimates.

4. What official data?? No data from any agency state that Indian GDP is less than $2 Trillion for 2016. India had GDP of less than $2 Trillion way back in 2014. India's GDP as of now is around $2.3-$2.4 Trillion.




That is at worst. Check posts in this thread. If India maintains real GDP growth of 8% pa, it would easily become $10 Trillion economy by 2026.



Europe does not have any scope of growth, while for others, GDP is growing but you do not perceive it as absolute increase is less (even if % increase is quite high).

How ?

Doing simple maths , 10 % Growth means we add close to 1.4-1.8 trillion dollars in next 5 years and 2.8-3.2 trillion dollars in next 5-7 years . ( If the exchange rates remain at 67 )

 

[BetterPakistan]

The economy is going back to 8+% growth.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/06b63142-2748-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html#axzz4BT5RbywC


The industry's happy.


And farmers have reason to celebrate.
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/2016-monsoon-will-be-above-normal-says-met-office-1394673


The current trends look good.



Such predictions are useless.

Goldman Sachs predicted Russia would overtake Italy in around 2015 ten years ago. Look at where Russia is now, barely at $1T when they were at $2T just a few years ago. These predictions can't deal with exchange rate fluctuations.

All that matters is India's PPP figure will keep growing. Western countries love exchange rate GDP because that's where they make money. Citibank predicts India will be a $85T economy in 2050 on PPP basis.

Let's see and 8 or 9% isn't enough to reach $10 trillion till 2026

 

[randomradio]

Let's see and 8 or 9% isn't enough to reach $10 trillion till 2026

GDP in INR is 150T. Calculate growth at 9% on that for 10 years. We get INR 355T.

Convert this at today's exchange rate of 67INR to a USD. We get $5.3T.
Let's say the exchange rate has depreciated to 90INR by 2026. We get $3.9T.
Let's say the exchange rate has gone back to INR 45, 2010 figure. We get $7.8T.
Let's say the exchange rate has appreciated to 35INR. We get $10.1.
This sort of deviation is not impossible. And no financial institution can predict this.

The Indian economy can go anywhere from here.

Regardless, in terms of PPP, the GDP would be $21T in 2026.

Out of all these figures, only $21T and INR 355T are accurate while $GDP can fluctuate depending on far too many unpredictable factors.

Note that you get different figures if you use current prices or 2026 prices.

How ?

Doing simple maths , 10 % Growth means we add close to 1.4-1.8 trillion dollars in next 5 years and 2.8-3.2 trillion dollars in next 5-7 years . ( If the exchange rates remain at 67 )

He's calculated at current prices, not 2026 prices.

 

[BetterPakistan]

GDP in INR is 150T. Calculate growth at 9% on that for 10 years. We get INR 355T.

Convert this at today's exchange rate of 67INR to a USD. We get $5.3T.
Let's say the exchange rate has depreciated to 90INR by 2026. We get $3.9T.
Let's say the exchange rate has gone back to INR 45, 2010 figure. We get $7.8T.
Let's say the exchange rate has appreciated to 35INR. We get $10.1.
This sort of deviation is not impossible. And no financial institution can predict this.

The Indian economy can go anywhere from here.

Regardless, in terms of PPP, the GDP would be $21T in 2026.

Out of all these figures, only $21T and INR 355T are accurate while $GDP can fluctuate depending on far too many unpredictable factors.

Note that you get different figures if you use current prices or 2026 prices.

A strong and growing economy can make its currency stable, there are examples of countries which made their currency stay stable.

Turkey recovered when its currency de-valued substantially in 2000s and one more thing we here are not calculating Indian GDP on local currency, we are measuring it in dollars and you cannot say that your country grew but your currency de-valued and it was the reason your GDP didn't grew.

If that is so I can say that Pakistan currency de-valued also after 2008 recession and if it wouldn't had happened Pak economy will be double that of today but believe me it doesn't mean that your country grew, actually it didn't. A growing economy always maintain its currency or de-value its local currency to increase exports. Look, now russian rubble is de-valuing also and Russia cannot put blame on international sanctions and say that our economy is growing but our currency de-valued that's why our GDP isn't growing. Russian rubble isn't the reason of its economy not growing. Oil prices reduction is the reason by which russia suffered a lot and is still suffering.

I'll explain it to you here look:-
India can de-value its currencyand by de-valuing there will be more paper notes available but it doesn't mean that Indian economy grew. It means that India currency paper note worth has reduced in front of dollars and this is the reason GDPs are measured in dollars because it seems the most powerful and stable currency.

 

[randomradio]

Turkey recovered when its currency de-valued substantially in 2000s and one more thing we here are not calculating Indian GDP on local currency, we are measuring it in dollars and

Turkey is very different from India. It has high socioeconomic indicators.

India has a lot of poor people. As they get richer, currency dynamics change much faster.

And India will soon start attracting a huge amount of investments, perhaps far higher than China did. Too many countries with negative interest loans and slumped economies that need to make money. Japan's been providing loans to India with interest rates of 0.1% and 0.3%. That's a lot of forex that will come into India in a short time if other countries follow suit. India could easily start attracting $100B every year as FDI and double that in loans and remittances over the next 20 years.

you cannot say that your country grew but your currency de-valued and it was the reason your GDP didn't grew.

This is what's happened over the last 4 years. The country kept growing, but the currency devalued at almost the same rate. So even though India's growth has been pretty good at more than 6%, the $GDP stayed stagnant.

2009 - $1365B
2010 - $1708B
2011 - $1835B
2012 - $1831B
2013 - $1861B
2014 - $2048B

From 2010-11 to 2013-14, the economy was practically stagnant in terms of $GPD. But average growth was 6.5%, higher than anybody except China.

2010 GDP in INR was 73T. And it climbed to 150T today. So the actual GDP has doubled. I think electricity production also doubled from 150GW to 300GW, at 11% average. So this happened even though $GDP was stagnant.

In fact, from 2010 to 2016, the average nominal growth was 16%. But the 10-11% average inflation has eaten up all that growth. In 2010 prices, we have only climbed INR 25T. 30% of the economy has been lost to inflation. In 2009, we lost 50% of our growth to inflation even though real growth was 10.5%. So there is lots of room for growth in India. Double digit real GDP growth can easily be achieved. I believe this time next year, we will be talking about double digit growth.

Why do you think so many people hate the UPA? Modi is cleaning up their mess.

 

[Nilgiri]

How ?

Doing simple maths , 10 % Growth means we add close to 1.4-1.8 trillion dollars in next 5 years and 2.8-3.2 trillion dollars in next 5-7 years . ( If the exchange rates remain at 67 )

You answered your own question (the "if" exchange rate remains where it is). You also forgot to account for inflation which has its own interaction with exchange rate but adds to total nominal growth. Read my earlier posts in this thread panditji.

 

[Centurion2016]

Boys trust me here in UK and in Europe there are 2 nations on everyones lips for next decade

INDIA & CHINA

Between them they will corner the world and BUY everything from energy to steel to cement to pharmaceticuls to technology.

 

[Nilgiri]

Boys trust me here in UK and in Europe there are 2 nations on everyones lips for next decade

INDIA & CHINA

Between them they will corner the world and BUY everything from energy to steel to cement to pharmaceticuls to technology.

India added more oil consumption in 2015 than any other country in the world....and expected to do so again this year and for many many years to come.

Other raw inputs are not far behind this trend either.