India To Become $10 Trillion Economy by 2026

[itachii]

Thinking that india will be 10tr $ economy by 2026 is a bit over optimistic. we might end up at 6+ or close to 7tr $ by 2026. By 2030-32 we should cross 10 tr $.



*conditions apply

 

[UKBengali]

Thinking that india will be 10tr $ economy by 2026 is a bit over optimistic. we might end up at 6+ or close to 7tr $ by 2026. By 2030-32 we should cross 10 tr $.



*conditions apply

Around 2030 is more realistic.

 

[pakdefender]

These figures are cooked up just like many of the myths about india , intended to entice investors

Having a deep pocket is one thing , spending that money is another

The spending habit of indians is that of penny pinchers and misers

So even having a deep pocket won't actually mean that they will be buying expensive goods.

France , Britain , Germany and US have all courted india due to this myth but have found out that getting money from banya is not going to work

 

[ziaulislam]

Doubt it, there is little reason to believe that India can achieve $10 trillion by 2026, even by 2036. I'd say that India will reach $10 trillion sometime between 2045-55, not before and not after.

to reach that value India needs to double it economy 2.5 times over
meaning at rate of 10%, it will achieve that some where in 15-20 years
meaning 2037 if it grows at 6-7%+3-4 inflation with no devaluation

no wonder china grew for massive rate for 25 years to get near 9 trillion

so under massive reforms and continuous growth indai can acheive that in 20-30 years

but to achieve it in 10 years would mean a growth of 20+ which is simply not achievable unless alot of inflation happens which i am not seeing , i don't think if that happens it will besustainablel

 

[HypocriteHunter]

you are wrong in analysis here Indian economy and chinese economy is different, china is net merchandise exporter. So china has to keep its currency devalued so that the overcapacity of chinese industries is kept in motion. But in India's case most of the services are consumed at home and with make in India even if 50% of imported items are made in India, the value of Indian currency will appreciate, 40% is low park figure in 10 years. Make in India is looking good investments are coming in we have labor force with right skills imports of many manufactured items will reduce India might start exporting many items we are importing now.

Tell me when the currency is appreciated 20% forget 40%, rhetoric cant replace the realities. As I have said you will understand it only if you know the process, am done here. Peace.

 

[HypocriteHunter]

well you are very wrong frnd, Indian currency is heavily devalued, one of the most understated ones. India rupees actual value is around 40 as per current economic strength against dollar so no big deal if India becomes a good solid manufacturing power, just to be self sufficient and rupee is not put under check and becomes a free floating one. The potential of rupee appreciation is around 100% in a decade easily.

The main factor which determine the currency value is relative strength, I am forgetting the exact two terms, but Indian rupee is evaluated against top 6 trading partner currency and if it crosses a certain threshold the currency is called over valued else its undervalued. Its done to keep the trade balance in check. Whatever you are reading in economist or other places may have different context and not exactly what you are understanding.

In regulated floating rate exchange regimes the currency value is decided by relative strength for trade balance. I will send you a full lecture on this topic on youtube when I find it.

 

[faithfulguy]

Is India on pace to be a superpower by 2030?

 

[Grevion]

Not gonna happen by 2026. At best we can achieve it by 2028 but most likely by 2030.
For that to happen we needs to be a net exporter with a strong indigenous consumption base. Economy will kick start mostly around 2018-2019 if the govt policies proves to be as good as they are said to be.
Furthermore we desperately needs labour reforms and tax reforms.
I think make in India and Skill India will be the flag bearer in our economic growth if the govt. manages to ease the red tape and babudom.

 

[HypocriteHunter]

I do understand these things buddy I have done some homework on this. But trust me you are too pessimistic India CAD is shrinking once at least the manufacturing part is taken care rest of indicators will go positive, we are net service exported, net FDI receiver, we have largest remittance coming in, once we establish our solid manufacturing base and at least take care of 50% of manufactured imports, only things we will be importing is high tech raw materials, gems, golf, machinery, machinery tools, oil, gas. But our CAD will go in positive. Then Indian rupee will easily rise 40% in 10 years in case we dont become too dependent for our GDP growth on exporting.

Firstly I am not pessimistic at all, I am just telling you the reality, when even after with authoritarian govt. China cant hold 11+% for three+ years there is not a single chance we can do it in democracy. You are just throwing random terms here by mentioning CAD and FDI in terms of currency valuation.

Just wait for next Award Wapsi and intoleance nautanki or our tiny neighbor terrorist attack right when business sentiments become better and foreign investor build some confidence. Currency will never appreciate 40% for next 25 years I can bet all my saving on that.

 

[HypocriteHunter]

going by solid economic facts yes I think you are going for the lowest possible number. But well never underestimate the will of 1.3 billion people who wants to have better life and can see hope for better future and chances to accomplish with willing Govt on top doesnt matter democracy or otherwise.
Trust me my friend even if govt. policies are right and correct investment is done, environment is provided, even if a billion people are connected to internet by 4g, broadband there is possibility that alone will add more than a trillion $ in GDP in a decade and above that dont forget the multiplying factor this will have lots of new businesses will be groomed from this digital India evolution and think about the employment the economic energy that will be generated. My lowest possible estimate is atleast 2 trillion will be added to GDP by Digital India push by Modi govt. in a decade, yes there are pre conditions but if govt. pushes this to conclusion doesnt matter award wapisi, or friendly neighbor nuisance no one can stop the will of a billion. Currency is a just a function its a variable it will be pushed up with inherent economic strength.
India was growing while govt. was sleeping earlier even touched 11% but now Indian govt. is showing the direction providing the equity. India is becoming the Giant it always was. In a decade with Govt. push homegrown MIC will generate a GDP close to 50 billion$.

I hope what you say become true. I had similar sentiments two years ago, after that I learned a lot, I saw the reality a lot and become more realistic, previously my words are exactly same, there are few constraints in economy mate, it just dont run instantly, sustaining that growth rate is even more difficult.

 

[randomradio]

At regular growth it's not possible, we need the rupee appreciating by 30%. And agriculture needs to go back to 3 or 4% growth again, that will easily push growth to above 10%.

Pray for rains.

 

[Grevion]

At regular growth it's not possible, we need the rupee appreciating by 30%. And agriculture needs to go back to 3 or 4% growth again, that will easily push growth to above 10%.

Pray for rains.

Rupee appreciating is not possible in the near future as the govt is already looking for the increase in export opportunities amidst the global slowdown. We need more robust growth in agricultural and manufacturing sector while the service sector should remain on top. And as you and our fellow member said above maintaining a higher growth rate is more difficult then achieveing it.

 

[Nilgiri]

Because financial agencies don't say India will achieve a 10 trillion dollar nominal GDP by 2026. According to IMF data, in terms of nominal GDP, India's economy in 2015 was $2.18 trillion. By 2020, India's economy should be $3.44 trillion, and you're telling me that within 2020-26, India's economy will grow by $6.6 trillion (within 6-7 years time); that's $1 trillion growth a year, no way any nation can achieve that.

http://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php

The closest thing to $10 trillion dollars is in terms of PPP, and has probably already achieved it, as it was a little over $8 trillion last FY.

IMF growth projections have been quite conservative (which is good, it normally gives the worst case scenario). I mean look at what they project for Pakistan if you dont believe me.

Lets assume according to their projection here:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft...sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=534&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=

That India grows by the same rate for another 5 years that it does between 2020 - 2021 (about 10% nominal growth in current dollars), the number comes to about 6.4 trillion USD in 2026.

The average annualised growth rate from 2016 to 2026 comes to about 10.8%.

For a projection of 10 trillion in 2026, the annualised growth rate comes to about 16%.

Lets look at the current growth rates more closely. A 9.5% total current growth rate between 2015 - 2016 can be composed roughly as follows: 8% real growth + 6% inflation - 4.5% depreciation = 9.5%.

To get to about 16% annualised, with enough reforms (GST, business climate easing) that could very well be passed this upcoming term in parliament and the ones already passed (bankruptcy, deficit management, NPA addressing, business climate reforms)....I would personally be optimistic about increasing real growth to an average of 9% - 10% and curtailing inflation to say 4 - 5% while depreciation could reach near 0 (because of better inflation control and terms of trade improvement given the FDI pouring into production capacity right now + the govt focus on improving training for young adults) and even start appreciation by a percentage or 2.

The IMF timidly accounts for such things, they always generally "fix" a current climate in their projections. Its why they grossly underpredicted China for almost 20 years or so while China was ramping up its reforms throughout them.

So 16% total annualised growth is not impossible. There is certainly enough time to ramp it up. Even hitting somewhere between between 6 and 10 trillion USD nominal in 2026 will be a great achievement. It will mean a lot more of the PPP is more "globally operationalised" than currently stands....since PPP will grow much slower than these numbers I am talking about here.

 

[That Guy]

IMF growth projections have been quite conservative (which is good, it normally gives the worst case scenario). I mean look at what they project for Pakistan if you dont believe me.

Lets assume according to their projection here:

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft...sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=534&s=NGDPD&grp=0&a=

That India grows by the same rate for another 5 years that it does between 2020 - 2021 (about 10% nominal growth in current dollars), the number comes to about 6.4 trillion USD in 2026.

The average annualised growth rate from 2016 to 2026 comes to about 10.8%.

For a projection of 10 trillion in 2026, the annualised growth rate comes to about 16%.

Lets look at the current growth rates more closely. A 9.5% total current growth rate between 2015 - 2016 can be composed roughly as follows: 8% real growth + 6% inflation - 4.5% depreciation = 9.5%.

To get to about 16% annualised, with enough reforms (GST, business climate easing) that could very well be passed this upcoming term in parliament and the ones already passed (bankruptcy, deficit management, NPA addressing, business climate reforms)....I would personally be optimistic about increasing real growth to an average of 9% - 10% and curtailing inflation to say 4 - 5% while depreciation could reach near 0 (because of better inflation control and terms of trade improvement given the FDI pouring into production capacity right now + the govt focus on improving training for young adults) and even start appreciation by a percentage or 2.

The IMF timidly accounts for such things, they always generally "fix" a current climate in their projections. Its why they grossly underpredicted China for almost 20 years or so while China was ramping up its reforms throughout them.

So 16% total annualised growth is not impossible. There is certainly enough time to ramp it up. Even hitting somewhere between between 6 and 10 trillion USD nominal in 2026 will be a great achievement. It will mean a lot more of the PPP is more "globally operationalised" than currently stands....since PPP will grow much slower than these numbers I am talking about here.

That all assumes India can gain and maintain a high GDP growth rate, which I don't believe it can. It will not get double digits, in fact I believe that it probably won't achieve 9% growth that many keep saying it will, and there is little reason to believe otherwise.

You are incorrect, economy behaves like cells if growing with pace it multiplies quickly because of opening up of multiple venues for ordinary folks so if a personal was selling tea outside of a office and if that office grows by 40-50% by end of year the tea stall will become a make shift dabha with lots of new dhabas nearby thats how economy grows more employment more revenue more productivity more GDP. So if an economy is already 5-6 trillion and still has many people living below standard life style the opportunities are unlimited any business will grow in that situation so adding a trillion $ is possible.

With low Indian base and ever growing middle class today if someone opens a scooter repair shop in 10 years he will open a showroom with service center.

Just words without any sort of backing.

India's economy is 2-ish trillion dollars, not 5-6 trillion.

You're also presenting the best case scenario, and economies don't work like that. I calling it right now, India won't be able to maintain a stable high growth rate, it simply can't, even with reforms.

 

[That Guy]

I said something different if you read above, I said it will take around 16 years considering the growth trajectory India is on. You are saying it will take 30 years!!!

Even 16 is too short a time to achieve such a thing. I simply don't believe India will be able to achieve it this early.

Mind you, I do think India's economy will be the second largest in the world, by 2050.