sancho
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Should one be pessimistic about that timeframe... considering the inordinate delays in the Mirage 2000 upgrade program, specifically by the finance guys?
Is the decision going to be based solely on the most commercially attractive option( advantage EF).. or is the international political scenario expected to table the decision a bit more after the commercial proposals have been scrutinized?
Second try. The Mirage deal is not negotiated by FM so far, there were only MoD/IAF negotiating with the manufacturers about what the upgrade will include and what it will cost.
For MMRCA the biggest delay factor imo and also in the opinion of the IAF Chief Naik, were vendors complaining that they are out, but since even Boeing admitted that they lost, it seems not even political pressure will change anything here.
From the start it was officially stated that ToT and improving our industry are prime requirements and imo that was also the reason to not buy Mirage 2000s and switch to the bigger M MRCA competition. The risks of delays were calculated, because the outcome is much higher now, so the comercial side will have a major role and as I said before, is one reason why the EF was shortlisted, besides of putting pressure on the French.
Politics won't be a big point anymore, because only the US would have been a real game changer for India (especially in the UN), the European countries can only support, or be a strategic partner and in this case France would be the safest and most capable option.