India’s Subversive Role in Afghanistan

[KRAIT]

exactly....but two can play at these games, rememeber that too kiddo

also remember that unlike NATO troops, we have the largest Pashtun population in Pakistan which translates into a rich cross-over of tribes on both sides of durand line.....

On the topic of NATO and the "end-game" --if the US wanted a full Pakistani cooperation, it should not have installed a virulently anti-Pakistani government in Kabul post 9-11. Even Lakhdar Brahimi (who nowdays is receiving much attention in media and policy circles) described the Afghan government as 'anti Pakistani!' The rest is history with the US getting caught in the middle as it were.

Pakistan would welcome an Afghanistan that was actually sovereign and respected the Durand line as an international border. Unfortunately, CERTAIN Afghan leaders time to have have demonstrated time and again that they fail on both counts and, willingly or otherwise, do india's bidding in harming Pakistan.

The exact same arguments that America is applying to Pakistan can be applied to Afghanistan vis-a-vis Pakistan. As long as they continue harboring anti-Pakistan elements, and until they make peace with the Durand line, Pakistan will do the needful to make sure Afghanistan doesn't cause trouble.

Pakistan has the basis for an excellent peaceful relationship with Afghanistan, including large crossover of ethnic tribes, but it will not materialize as long as Afghanistan lets itself be used by indian against Pakistan.


this doesnt translate into Pakistan going on the offensive and undermining indian efforts in Afghanistan (some of which are genuine and productive)...but when it translates into promoting an anti-Pakistan atmoshphere and promoting terrorist factions that do dirty work against Pakistan, we will act. This has been demonstrated already and could be demonstrated again and again.

india should refrain from meddling in our regional affairs and trying to undermine or threaten our security in a sneaky, covert fashion....its not a conduct that would be in her interests

Few years ago who would have thought of TTP or extremist afghans going against Pakistan, kidnapping and beheading Pakistani soldiers, suicide attacks bomb blasts etc. So what will happen in future, well we can only guess.

But what you missed is the economic effect on Pakistan which was my main focus. You do realize that to uproot TTP and other anti-Pakistan forces won't be a cake walk and it will require large amount of money and time as by your own admission, even NATO couldn't uproot Taliban after spending trillions of dollars spent over decade.

So what I am emphasizing is how long will it take and at what cost ? The more you kill TTP, the more anti-Pakistani factions will emerge as collateral damage will also happen because of your attacks too. Will Pakistan achieve or sustain economic growth with this war ? One need to analyze the Money and Lives involved in Pakistan's action post 2014.

As for meddling in internal affairs, we all know that India and Pakistan, both have been doing this for decades and India won't stop, so does Pakistan. Saying that India won't dare to do this will be wrong prediction. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, comes into play when two nations with history for 4 wars and such tactics are concerned.

You do realize the Indian connection with NA and its investment in well-being of Afghans will play an important role, don't you ? Thinking that all Afghanis will support Pakistan will be over-estimation, reason being your continuous support to Taliban post-Cold War will be against you. By many people in Pakistan blaming Indians for support to BLA already means that India will interfere in future.

India's investment and strategic pacts have already made Pakistan for giving $ 500 million to Afghanistan, the money which could have been used for your own projects.

At least what India can achieve with its economy is minimizing the chances of huge anti-India groups created in Afghanistan for Kashmir issue. Pakistan doesn't have economic shock absorbers. Only economical strong way Pakistan can sustain this war is using China's interest in Afghanistan to make them pay for your operation.

So I again want you guys to look at economic aspect. Look at economics involved for time being. Assuming India won't dare, well if you think it that way, well then I have nothing to say. Just one last statement.

Welcome to 21st century and Economic terrorism.

 

[Ticker]

Thanks.
Just want to explore a bit the assertion you made about "Afghanistan not becoming existential threat".
As per my analysis, Afghan threat to Pakistan is real, but it can never be termed as "existantial". This will be a hugely overblown idea.
This is based on the following:
1. Afghan army and government has always been really weak, so they cannot do anything drastic against Pakistan that is 10 time bigger population wise, and 100 times or bigger than military capability wise.
2. Afghan economy is totally and utterly depended on Pakistan.
3. Even a resourceful organization like NATO has been totally and utterly dependent on Pakistan, then how on earth any other country or group of countries could ever support a major military campaign against Pakistan?
Afghanistan is a tiny tiny country if you want to consider its impact on a Pakistan where population is not afraid to death about it.
Pakistani intellectuals have done really poor job in terms of the following:
1. Overplaying Afghanistan's prowess
2. Underplaying India's true power
Because of #1, we are always behaving as if Afghan hoards will descend on us tomorrow.
Because of #2, we are always making empty bharaks (slogans) like Sultan rahi.
peace

Your above post was not really worth replying.

Do you have any understanding of the environment that exist in Afghanistan. And this is not the first time that you have posted utterly out of tune analyses which neither conform to the existing environment, nor relate to the historical perspective.

I think it is important that you correct your historical purview before you numb yourself with self imposed delusion. And no need to reply, please.

You talked about historical perspective in another thread as well, which was inconsistent with realities.

You talked about Raja Ranjit Singh Kana as he was and is known in these parts, and mentioned that he was so great for the Muslims as a ruler. Let me give you some historical facts about that as well.

He and his army when they captured Peshawar, committed unheard-of atrocities on the people of the city. Read the memoirs written by the French General, who is buried in Anarkali Bazar Lahore, and you probably would find out what happened. Pakistani historians ko to shayed tum manay na issi liye goray ka example diya hai.

The Sikhs used to kill hundreds of Peshawarites every day and hang their dead bodies on all the entry gates of Peshawar city. They did this for a long period on daily basis. And you know why they did this - to scare the people of that area.

After Ahmed Shah Abdali left for Afghanistan, because he slaughtered cows in the adjoining pond of Golden Temple, the Sikhs gathered tens of thousands of innocent Muslims from the surrounding area and in the month of June, forced them to literally lick the pond clean. Over thirty thousand died doing it. This is a quote from a book written by a Hindu historian and not a Muslim Pakistani historian.

So when you talk Afghanistan and present an analysis, please open your mind to the ground realities and then carryout an analysis. The one above is not worth it. Thanks.

 

[FaujHistorian]

Your above post was not really worth replying.

Do you have any understanding of the environment that exist in Afghanistan. And this is not the first time that you have posted utterly out of tune analyses which neither conform to the existing environment, nor relate to the historical perspective.

I think it is important that you correct your historical purview before you numb yourself with self imposed delusion. And no need to reply, please.

You talked about historical perspective in another thread as well, which was inconsistent with realities.

You talked about Raja Ranjit Singh Kana as he was and is known in these parts, and mentioned that he was so great for the Muslims as a ruler. Let me give you some historical facts about that as well.

He and his army when they captured Peshawar, committed unheard-of atrocities on the people of the city. Read the memoirs written by the French General, who is buried in Anarkali Bazar Lahore, and you probably would find out what happened. Pakistani historians ko to shayed tum manay na issi liye goray ka example diya hai.

The Sikhs used to kill hundreds of Peshawarites every day and hang their dead bodies on all the entry gates of Peshawar city. They did this for a long period on daily basis. And you know why they did this - to scare the people of that area.

After Ahmed Shah Abdali left for Afghanistan, because he slaughtered cows in the adjoining pond of Golden Temple, the Sikhs gathered tens of thousands of innocent Muslims from the surrounding area and in the month of June, forced them to literally lick the pond clean. Over thirty thousand died doing it. This is a quote from a book written by a Hindu historian and not a Muslim Pakistani historian.

So when you talk Afghanistan and present an analysis, please open your mind to the ground realities and then carryout an analysis. The one above is not worth it. Thanks.

You are now turning this discussion from regional issue into a "Mullah-fundoo-discussion". And that's OK with me. Maharjah Ranjeet Singh was no philanthropist, he was a raja. His treatment of his enemies was at the same level (if not better) as those adopted by all in his time.

However he kept Persian as the language of his court and appointed many Muslims in the senior positions.It is on record that Lahore Muslims opened the doors for him and so did many other Muslim dominated areas. And no there was no mass killing in many of these cities.

If you want to press your point, open a separate thread.

From military history, he sure was the son of soil who stopped Afghan invasions in the areas now in Pakistan. If you want to counter this, then continue in this thread.


peace

It is none of your business who your neighbour invites to his house as long as it doesn't negatively affect you, for which you don't have any proof .

If your neighbor wants to blast your house's boundary wall, would that count towards "negatively affecting" you?

Just curious.


peace

 

[ajtr]

if your backwards maoists were even half as equipped, trained and motivated the way the talebs are you would have lost your entire northeast completely to them.....given the sheer numbers in maoist ranks.

You are right in certain way ie what maoists lack is modern weapon.But they have sheer numbers if they had access to weapons like talibans have they would have freed most of India from corrupt political elites.But even with their primitive world war 2 vintage weapons like .303 rifles snatched from police and bow and arrows maoists are able beat the crap out of indian security forces equipped with mordern weapons. they have conducted many famous raids like dantewada where 70+ odd security force people killed.

 

[ajtr]

Pakistan has geographical advantage when it comes to Afghanistan but at the same time its the biggest weakness too as the porous border is so hard to monitor. Even US can't stop infiltrations of people from Mexico with so much money and advance equipments, its hard to digest the fact that Pakistan can stop these incursions post 2014 within couple of years.

Lets work from time frame of today to 2014. India will create as much anti-Pakistan factions it can along with supply and support to BLA< TTP etc. whichever terrorist group is "allegedly" linked with India.

Now coming to post 2014, the anti-Pakistani people are going to increase. One faction that are fighting against NATO, will be the ones who think that Pakistan helped NATO in this WoT so they will seek revenge.

Second faction will be the one who is "supported" by India.

Pakistan can take them out. Depends on how much money and time they can invest to make the problem go away. Pakistan knows the modus operandi and contacts of the terrorist groups which are need to be taken out post 2014 as it worked with them during Afghan war. It is also well trained to fight in this terrain too.

But here comes the big problem, the time to suppress these terrorists will come with HUGE Economic strain. India don't care if TTP, BLA etc wins or not. For India, if it manages to extend the military action of Pakistan against these terrorist groups post 2014, by 5 years or a decade, that mean by lets say, by 2020, 2014, the losses incurred will cripple the economy and due to security concern, foreign players may not invest too heavily.

NATO couldn't uproot Taliban in 11 years and after 8 trillion in the drain, it is still struggling. Now just imagine what it will cost. Even if its 100 billion or lets say 20 billion at least, its defense budget of Pakistan (4 billion at present) is used to get rid of these terrorists, we can see what will be the impact on Pakistan's economy at whole especially when it is already struggling with loans for important projects and its other economic concern.

India's end game is keeping the western theater active for long period of time. Its a win win situation, not a zero sum game.


So instead of being emotional, we should look at economical aspect of this problem first.

Well you you are most welcomed to play the game but as always playground will be India........I wonder what would happen if some non state actors explodes dirty nuke in say mumbai.i hope india will have enough papers to type dossiers.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

As per my analysis, Afghan threat to Pakistan is real, but it can never be termed as "existantial". This will be a hugely overblown idea.

fair enough; i'll accept that....replace "Existential" with "serious"

This is based on the following:

1. Afghan army and government has always been really weak, so they cannot do anything drastic against Pakistan that is 10 time bigger population wise, and 100 times or bigger than military capability wise.

but in the end, you still cant change the geography.....or the attitudes of those that can be bought off to harm us

2. Afghan economy is totally and utterly depended on Pakistan.

to a large extent, but not "utterly"

furthermore, that still hasnt changed the back-stabbing nature of those who lived or were even born in Pak but then went back and resort to accusatory tactics and vitriolics

3. Even a resourceful organization like NATO has been totally and utterly dependent on Pakistan, then how on earth any other country or group of countries could ever support a major military campaign against Pakistan?

they can exploit peoples emotions and exploit those who are poor....they can support factions including those opposed to Pakistan. Plenty of western-educated Amrullah Salehs out there

Pakistani intellectuals have done really poor job in terms of the following:

1. Overplaying Afghanistan's prowess
2. Underplaying India's true power

the indians played a dirty game in 71 and some in their deeper circles see an interest in deteriorating law and order (and development) in Pakistan......NATO adventure was the biggest blessing to india since Mother Theresa herself.

Because of #1, we are always behaving as if Afghan hoards will descend on us tomorrow.

well they kinda have already....it's time for them to go home and build their own country

Because of #2, we are always making empty bharaks (slogans) like Sultan rahi.

what kind of slogans are you talking about

 

[RazPaK]

I'm going to say it simply. Yes I may receive an infraction or may get banned. However I will post true to my feelings. My grandfather told me simply that Hindus are our enemy. They will forever be the enemy.

Not all Hindus may be this way, but the majority are our enemy.

And I dare even one mod to reprimand me, because his action would prove there was no need for the creation of Pakistan.

My family is one of the few unfortunate ones that have suffered from the atrocities of partition. Even if the Punajbis, Pashtuns, Baluch, and Sindhis of Pakistan want to make friends with Indians, we will never stand for it.

They hate us from their heart. Even if they show a good face.

 

[ajtr]

What are Maoists doing in the discussion about Afghans? These Mao bhakht who keep on harping on Maoism and bring it any damn discussion should be asked - How much the principles of Maoism do they follow? Did you kicked your religion aside as the rule number 1 of Maoism? If not then stop pretending to be Maoists spokespersons.

Maoist are relevant to this thread coz they always spoken against the Indian Army's brutal genocide and occupation of kashmir.They support kashmir movement so do Taliban support kashmir movement.In a sense both Taliban'and maoists aims are same wrt to india hence maoists are discussed here.

 

[RazPaK]

You know ultimate destination of all of terrorists and people supporting them is hell !!! I understand for some of you folks you are bound by religion to use it as a tool to attack on innocents but there will not be any success in it... good luck with this jihaddi mentality...

Your own people attack people of your own country and religion. Have some shame before citing examples.

You were a conquered people, but now I say that you ARE a conquered people. MENTALLY.

 

[ajtr]

such a scenario..

According to our Think tank Krait sahib its called war-gaming....All permutations and combinations of scenarios....So i'm just doing that...ie war gaming.....Btw keep you tongue civil in public forum.

 

[ajtr]

This is not 1990, India has enough money to help keep the Taliban occupied in Afghanistan, Actually, your point makes it clear that is what we must do, no point in allowing the Taliban the luxury of rest. Keeping them occupied in Afghanistan & Pakistan is our best bet & that is what we should aim for. The NA won't be hung out to dry this time & unlike the Americans, Afghan groups are less concerned with niceties in war.

It wont take much to make it 1990s for india and regarding money even usa had loads of it but than taliban made its mince meat now usa and nato are running.banias with all their money cant fight wars only kshtriyas do.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

This is not 1990, India has enough money to help keep the Taliban occupied in Afghanistan, Actually, your point makes it clear that is what we must do, no point in allowing the Taliban the luxury of rest. Keeping them occupied in Afghanistan & Pakistan is our best bet & that is what we should aim for. The NA won't be hung out to dry this time & unlike the Americans, Afghan groups are less concerned with niceties in war.

i really hope your babus and policy makers don't think like you b/c clearly the prospect of civil war in Afghanistan doesn't trouble you one bit (of course, since they are so far from your geographical borders)

anywaz...

Afghans or your precious ISI and talibunnies?

the impetus for the attack was indian support of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan and india&#8217;s recognition of Hamid Karzai&#8217;s national government.

"talibunnies" however denied responsibility for the attack; so of course you'd resort to blaming ISI though the proof doesnt even exist

so that's that, 'Sandy'

 

[pakdefender]

This is not 1990, India has enough money to help keep the Taliban occupied in Afghanistan, Actually, your point makes it clear that is what we must do, no point in allowing the Taliban the luxury of rest. Keeping them occupied in Afghanistan & Pakistan is our best bet & that is what we should aim for. The NA won't be hung out to dry this time & unlike the Americans, Afghan groups are less concerned with niceties in war.

America cannot sustain the war for much longer, they risk sinking billions more if they stay one
Begging America to continue the war in Afghanistan for India&#8217;s benefit won&#8217;t work anymore and on your own beyond making loud bangs from your other end there is not much you Indians can do.

 

[Paan Singh]

America cannot sustain the war for much longer, they risk sinking billions more if they stay one
Begging America to continue the war in Afghanistan for India’s benefit won’t work anymore and on your own beyond making loud bangs from your other end there is not much you Indians can do.

WAr cost is more coz there are thousands of troops on ground but it wont be after 2014.
They will have 4-5 bases having few thousand troops each and u will see huge rise in drone strikes..
coz its the only way to get the enemy without soldier casualty.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Hope Pakistan will have enough people left alive after that to read the dossiers sent by India ...

i just hope india will have eonugh enough persons alive to type those dossiers.

OUCH