India’s Subversive Role in Afghanistan

[notsuperstitious]

Interestingly Sajjad Shaukat was a member on the forum and used to promote his blog. but he got banned for some reason. Then he opened another account called Sania Saleem and keeps posting his bedtime stories. I'm surprised such tripe is considered worth discussing.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/member.php?u=41994

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

Its India sitting in our neighbor's house not Pakistan sitting in India's, that makes India an adversary.

It is none of your business who your neighbour invites to his house as long as it doesn't negatively affect you, for which you don't have any proof .

 

[notsuperstitious]

No proof






No case!

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

I even asked this to afgans directly and they laughed on me..

Talibunies mostly lives like maoist lives in india

if your backwards maoists were even half as equipped, trained and motivated the way the talebs are you would have lost your entire northeast completely to them.....given the sheer numbers in maoist ranks.

if the talebs can infiltrate ANA, Afghan intelligence, Afghan police; if even Karzai is now calling them his "angry brothers" (years after they whacked his father) then it seems at least to me that it's a telling sign that whether we like it or NOT, the "bunnies" are consolidating their gains and their influence and power is spreading years after their ouster and defeat in 2001/02. This isn't to say that Talebs could hold much sway in the western sector of the country, which is dominated more by ethnic Tajiks and Hazaras who traditionally have had their own militant factions that were at odds with the talebs. The real challenge will be to see how the stakeholders to peace in Afghanistan (with Pakistan, Iran and CARs at the forefront) can help promote peace and end to civil war in the country.




Afghanistan: an illusion exposed | Carne Ross | Comment is free | The Guardian

According to a devastating account from a senior US army officer, the Taliban now range freely across much of the country. US forces barely control the territory they can see from their highly fortified bases. Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis reports that the Afghan army, like its government, is neither competent nor trusted.

The war was supposed to end with the Taliban arriving as supplicants to the negotiating table once sufficiently "degraded" by allied attacks. That strategy has been turned on its head. If anyone is a supplicant it will be the allies, desperate to make a deal they can claim as some kind of limited "victory" before they pull out. But, if this weekend's events are any indicator, the Taliban don't seem very interested in talking.

Where did it go so wrong? With the lucidity of hindsight (for I was once an enthusiastic supporter of the war), it appears that a fatal mistake was made before the campaign even started. In Bonn, an international conference was convened to construct a political strategy to follow the inevitable military victory. A moderate Pashtun would lead a government comprising all factions and ethnicities – or at least those we approved of. This new dispensation was to be endorsed by the traditional loya jirga, or "democracy, Afghan-style", as some chose to call it. It sounded plausible and everyone in the "international community" signed on.

But the new Afghanistan was in fact a fantasy.

A few weeks after Bonn, allied forces quickly drove out the Taliban – at least in parts of Afghanistan. The Karzai government was installed. The illusion persisted. But even in 2002, the flaws in the fantasy were evident for those who cared to look. Indeed they had been evident in Bonn.

For the one faction not invited to join the new Afghanistan was of course the Taliban. It was simply assumed that they would disappear. When I briefly served in the British embassy in Kabul shortly after the invasion, nobody ever asked why there was no allied presence in large swaths of the south. At the main airbase at Bagram, military operations were presented as mere "mopping up" of rag-tag forces driven into the mountains. But I remember one SAS commander who seemed less than convinced of this rose-tinted narrative. Perhaps he already saw the auguries.

Accompanying a senior official visiting our new allies in the north and west of the country (again, none in the south), everyone told us that the loya jirga would produce the wished-for democratic stability. Nobody mentioned that our partners in this project often behaved more like tyrants than democrats. One was reported to be given to tying the limbs of his opponents to two tanks then driving them in opposite directions.

The allies had all the guns and the money. Was it any wonder that any Afghan we met told us what we wanted to hear? At every meeting we were accompanied by squads of heavily-armed soldiers. As for the money, iIt was muttered only sotto voce at the Kabul embassy that cash-filled briefcases were regularly handed to new government ministers and warlords on "our side". Even nice Mr So-and-So, who spoke such good English and presented so well on TV, was on the take. Today, the only surprise is that we seem so shocked at the corruption of the Karzai government, given that we helped corrupt it.

The truth was that the allies were not creating a new democratic Afghanistan. Wwe had instead joined one side in a civil war that had raged for decades, has not ceased despite the allied presence, and will resume with full force once the western forces depart. It seems astonishing now that we were so wilfully naive. It all made such good sense at the time.

We entered Afghanistan and tried to make it comply with our fantasy, ignorant of its already complex realities. We occupied only small pieces of the country but declared that we had vanquished all of it. We constructed a new "democratic" order – but excluded those most likely to oppose it while including the brutish and corrupt (and then we corrupted them some more).

That these contradictions now seem so clear serves as a reminder of how stupid we were.

 

[karan21]

United Stated started off with the economic and military muscle that it had in 2001 and after 10 years it is reaping very nicely the fruits of its policy in Afghanistan

India is a pip squeak by comparison , you neither have the economic muscle nor the militarty muscle that the American had to start with, americans came in with support of 40 other countires to bear down on Pakistan via Afghansitan , how far lalu in his lungi will get in this endeavour is not hard to to guess.

Your foolish anti-Pakistan investments will go down the toilet as the US draw down begins

Loll last time they sent some yanks to do the work. This time baniya hindus and Sons of Sardars will go. You see the difference broo.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Typical Desi brawl. And shameful at it. Blaiming each others and their uncle for the bad stuff in the neighborhood.


As a Pakistani I'll talk about the OP first. then perhaps mention where Indian posters get it wrong. utterly wrong. Here is a very high level view of the role each of the party is playing.

1. Afghanis: Blame or credit for anything that goes on in their country, should go to Afghans. They are majority in their country. USA, Pakistan, India, Russia can only do anything in Afghanistan if an only if Afghanis are willing to help the invaders.


2. Pakistanis: We cannot blame India, or America or CIA or RAW etc. for what goes on in Iran. Our hands are not clean. So many Pakistani civilians come on these forums and froth at their mouths about everyone else except themselves. If we as a nation are that worried about Afghanis, then why don't we send teams of science teachers, doctors, nurses and engineers to build Afghanistan. Why instead we allow despicable characters like Gul-badan (pretty boy)? Why? Pak army and civilians must be living in an era 100s of years ago when Afghan hoards could easily come down the Khyber pass and ransack Pakistani and Indian regions. That era ended when modern military techniques used by Maharaja Ranjit Singh finally glued shut any misadventure by Afghani war lords. Since then, the military capability of Punjab and KPK has increased 1000s of time while Afghans are pretty much the same as they were in 16th century,

With this change in capabilities, Pakistan must play a constructive role in Afghanistan by educating and training them and by helping develop a stable modern country instead of relying on $tupid talibaboons. Islam clearly tells us that we must treat our neighbors with respect and with humility. And what are we doing instead?

We must remember that Afghanistan by population is the size of a large city in Pakistan. We can easily deal with them using regular forces (million man strong) instead of letting warlords f**k Afghanistan and in the process our own country is getting f***ked.

We must change our course, we must. If not for Afghanistan, then at least for our country's sakes. India and RAW can only be there until NATO is there. They will run with their dhotis flying as soon as the goras leave.

So we must not treat Afghanistan as if it will remain under Indian thumb forever.


3. Indians: So many posters want to show India is so goody goody Bollywoodsy-Aishvarya for the manly men Afghani. That's not the case. Indian have terrible history of supporting Afghanis on one condition, that they $hit on Pakistan at every occasion. This was the case in 1947, this was the case in 1967, and that was the case in 77, 87, 97, 07, ..... you get the point.

The problem with such $tupid behavior is that India cannot win this war of Afghani-attrition when it has no direct route to the country. And the only viable route to send supplies is Pakistan. Thus any misadventure taken by Indians is going to cost India dearly and in the long run hurt Afghanis a lot more than what it can do to Pakistan.

4. NATO: They made a serious mistake by not inviting Pakistan army into the allies working in Afghanistan. Bringing India into the mix meant, they lost support of a major player in the area. I mean how $tupid it is to spend
100s of billions of dollars in Afghanistan while hoping that Pakistan will be the main supply route if they paid 2 billions a YEAR?

Afghanistan would have been easilty controlled by paying 10 billion a year to Pakistan and 2 billion to Afghanistan. 12 billion a year. That's it! 12 fing billions.

Instead NATO destroyed their own economies (other factors are involved, but lets focus on military expenses in Afghanistan for the moment), by utterly wasting 100s of billions every year but most importantly loosing 1000s of their precious soldiers.

NATO should have left Afghanistan in 2002 by handing over the control to a regional peace keeping force, OK may be they needed to keep 3 squadrons of fighters with few squadron each of cargo and other support planes.

NATO felt they could muscle their way through, and I am sure their approach may work in the long run, but at what cost. AT What fing cost.



in summary: Pakistanis and Pak army have supported the wrong side so far. It is time we change our ways, and think about bringing peace in Afghanistan. That's the only way we can kick Indians out of Afghanistan. It is the only way.



peace

you bring up many points here which i agree on.....however, Afghanistan is basically a conflomeration of factions. the indians supported the Northern Alliance.

you expected Pakistan to do the same? They are viewed by many as an anti-Pashtun warlord faction....i dont think supporting the NA would bode too well for the Pashtun Pakistani population, don't ya think?

moreover, the human rights record of the NA is as bad as that of the talebs.....i'm sure the facts and figures are out there somewhere.


as i implied earlier, Pakistan will do the needful to ensure that Afghanistan does not become an existential threat to Pakistan (through manipulation done by our enemies)....it's hard for everyone to push for total reconciliation when certain countries are part of the problem rather than part of the solution; and the solution will come about not through occupying invader armies but rather through regional integration and cooperation. Pakistan, Iran, CARs, GCC, even Turkey have roles to play here and hopefully all can sit down and come up with solutions to the problems many of which exist.

there has to be an environment in which all aggrieved factions/groups in Afghanistan can reconcile and work towards peace and normalcy in Afghanistan......otherwise this is all just part II of the previously started Cold War (a war which we were part of and a war which in the long run has cost us dearly --- in financial and non-financial terms)

Loll last time they sent some yanks to do the work. This time baniya hindus and Sons of Sardars will go. You see the difference broo.

so your military forces and your national exchequer will do what several NATO armies and what trillions of dollars in foreign donations and commitments couldnt do.....

rigggggght


i'd actually love to pop some popcorn and see what would happen

 

[KRAIT]

Pakistan has geographical advantage when it comes to Afghanistan but at the same time its the biggest weakness too as the porous border is so hard to monitor. Even US can't stop infiltrations of people from Mexico with so much money and advance equipments, its hard to digest the fact that Pakistan can stop these incursions post 2014 within couple of years.

Lets work from time frame of today to 2014. India will create as much anti-Pakistan factions it can along with supply and support to BLA< TTP etc. whichever terrorist group is "allegedly" linked with India.

Now coming to post 2014, the anti-Pakistani people are going to increase. One faction that are fighting against NATO, will be the ones who think that Pakistan helped NATO in this WoT so they will seek revenge.

Second faction will be the one who is "supported" by India.

Pakistan can take them out. Depends on how much money and time they can invest to make the problem go away. Pakistan knows the modus operandi and contacts of the terrorist groups which are need to be taken out post 2014 as it worked with them during Afghan war. It is also well trained to fight in this terrain too.

But here comes the big problem, the time to suppress these terrorists will come with HUGE Economic strain. India don't care if TTP, BLA etc wins or not. For India, if it manages to extend the military action of Pakistan against these terrorist groups post 2014, by 5 years or a decade, that mean by lets say, by 2020, 2014, the losses incurred will cripple the economy and due to security concern, foreign players may not invest too heavily.

NATO couldn't uproot Taliban in 11 years and after 8 trillion in the drain, it is still struggling. Now just imagine what it will cost. Even if its 100 billion or lets say 20 billion at least, its defense budget of Pakistan (4 billion at present) is used to get rid of these terrorists, we can see what will be the impact on Pakistan's economy at whole especially when it is already struggling with loans for important projects and its other economic concern.

India's end game is keeping the western theater active for long period of time. Its a win win situation, not a zero sum game.


So instead of being emotional, we should look at economical aspect of this problem first.

 

[Abu Zolfiqar]

Pakistan can take them out. Depends on how much money and time they can invest to make the problem go away. Pakistan knows the modus operandi and contacts of the terrorist groups which are need to be taken out post 2014 as it worked with them during Afghan war. It is also well trained to fight in this terrain too.

But here comes the big problem, the time to suppress these terrorists will come with HUGE Economic strain. India don't care if TTP, BLA etc wins or not. For India, if it manages to extend the military action of Pakistan against these terrorist groups post 2014, by 5 years or a decade, that mean by lets say, by 2020, 2014, the losses incurred will cripple the economy and due to security concern, foreign players may not invest too heavily.

NATO couldn't uproot Taliban in 11 years and after 8 trillion in the drain, it is still struggling. Now just imagine what it will cost. Even if its 100 billion or lets say 20 billion at least, its defense budget of Pakistan (4 billion at present) is used to get rid of these terrorists, we can see what will be the impact on Pakistan's economy at whole especially when it is already struggling with loans for important projects and its other economic concern.

India's end game is keeping the western theater active for long period of time. Its a win win situation, not a zero sum game.


So instead of being emotional, we should look at economical aspect of this problem first.

exactly....but two can play at these games, rememeber that too kiddo

also remember that unlike NATO troops, we have the largest Pashtun population in Pakistan which translates into a rich cross-over of tribes on both sides of durand line.....

On the topic of NATO and the "end-game" --if the US wanted a full Pakistani cooperation, it should not have installed a virulently anti-Pakistani government in Kabul post 9-11. Even Lakhdar Brahimi (who nowdays is receiving much attention in media and policy circles) described the Afghan government as 'anti Pakistani!' The rest is history with the US getting caught in the middle as it were.

Pakistan would welcome an Afghanistan that was actually sovereign and respected the Durand line as an international border. Unfortunately, CERTAIN Afghan leaders time to have have demonstrated time and again that they fail on both counts and, willingly or otherwise, do india's bidding in harming Pakistan.

The exact same arguments that America is applying to Pakistan can be applied to Afghanistan vis-a-vis Pakistan. As long as they continue harboring anti-Pakistan elements, and until they make peace with the Durand line, Pakistan will do the needful to make sure Afghanistan doesn't cause trouble.

Pakistan has the basis for an excellent peaceful relationship with Afghanistan, including large crossover of ethnic tribes, but it will not materialize as long as Afghanistan lets itself be used by indian against Pakistan.


this doesnt translate into Pakistan going on the offensive and undermining indian efforts in Afghanistan (some of which are genuine and productive)...but when it translates into promoting an anti-Pakistan atmoshphere and promoting terrorist factions that do dirty work against Pakistan, we will act. This has been demonstrated already and could be demonstrated again and again.

india should refrain from meddling in our regional affairs and trying to undermine or threaten our security in a sneaky, covert fashion....its not a conduct that would be in her interests

 

[FaujHistorian]

you bring up many points here which i agree on.....however, Afghanistan is basically a conflomeration of factions. the indians supported the Northern Alliance.

you expected Pakistan to do the same? They are viewed by many as an anti-Pashtun warlord faction....i dont think supporting the NA would bode too well for the Pashtun Pakistani population, don't ya think?

moreover, the human rights record of the NA is as bad as that of the talebs.....i'm sure the facts and figures are out there somewhere.


as i implied earlier, Pakistan will do the needful to ensure that Afghanistan does not become an existential threat to Pakistan (through manipulation done by our enemies)....it's hard for everyone to push for total reconciliation when certain countries are part of the problem rather than part of the solution; and the solution will come about not through occupying invader armies but rather through regional integration and cooperation. Pakistan, Iran, CARs, GCC, even Turkey have roles to play here and hopefully all can sit down and come up with solutions to the problems many of which exist.

there has to be an environment in which all aggrieved factions/groups in Afghanistan can reconcile and work towards peace and normalcy in Afghanistan......otherwise this is all just part II of the previously started Cold War (a war which we were part of and a war which in the long run has cost us dearly --- in financial and non-financial terms)
......

Thanks.


Just want to explore a bit the assertion you made about "Afghanistan not becoming existential threat".


As per my analysis, Afghan threat to Pakistan is real, but it can never be termed as "existantial". This will be a hugely overblown idea.

This is based on the following:

1. Afghan army and government has always been really weak, so they cannot do anything drastic against Pakistan that is 10 time bigger population wise, and 100 times or bigger than military capability wise.

2. Afghan economy is totally and utterly depended on Pakistan.

3. Even a resourceful organization like NATO has been totally and utterly dependent on Pakistan, then how on earth any other country or group of countries could ever support a major military campaign against Pakistan?


Afghanistan is a tiny tiny country if you want to consider its impact on a Pakistan where population is not afraid to death about it.


Pakistani intellectuals have done really poor job in terms of the following:

1. Overplaying Afghanistan's prowess
2. Underplaying India's true power

Because of #1, we are always behaving as if Afghan hoards will descend on us tomorrow.

Because of #2, we are always making empty bharaks (slogans) like Sultan rahi.



peace

 

[Kazhugu]

if your backwards maoists were even half as equipped, trained and motivated the way the talebs are you would have lost your entire northeast completely to them.....given the sheer numbers in maoist ranks.

hahaha some one tell this think tank that the maoists dont operate in north east..but predominantly in central and east of central india....and yeah the maoists are as much motivated and trained as the talibooobies..and are definitely more than "half as equipped" as them...and that lack of equipment is offset by the lack of fighters, gunships, drones,carpet bombing that they dont face...

 

[Mitro]

Earlier you guys use Afghans as scape goat for your propoganda .....India having no common boundary with afghanistan watched and observed and Chankya got into action.......Now India will have physical presence in Afghanistan........

Table have turned now ........ Game is about to turn head over heel.......... its time for some intense mehmaan nawazi now

like i said earlier also " Chankya never forgets & above all never forgives"

Our physical presence in afghanistan will be short live and all around the world think tanks know that this karzai government will collapse as soon as nato leave in 2014 ,we are going to loose our investment and we have run from afghanistan in lang goti .

 

[Slayer786]

The game will start once the NATO run back to their holes from which they came and leave Afghanistan for all. Now Indians shockingly belief that they will have influence in Afghanistan for years to come. They must be living in a fantasy world. I say lets let them believe that. It would be great to see their shocked faces when the taliban overruns kabul and a Civil war will erupt. if they believe that the kabul govt will ask them to send their military and they will agree. That would be just awesome. Like to see how the Indian forces tackle the taliban. Ofcourse, their experience in Srilanka was horrific for them. In Afghanistan it will be catastrophic.

 

[Gandhi G in da house]

hahaha some one tell this think tank that the maoists dont operate in north east..but predominantly in central and east of central india....and yeah the maoists are as much motivated and trained as the talibooobies..and are definitely more than "half as equipped" as them...and that lack of equipment is offset by the lack of fighters, gunships, drones,carpet bombing that they dont face...

I will agree with you that the maoists are perhaps as well trained as the Talibanis but they certainly are not as well equipped and motivated .

Has any Maoists ever conducted a Suicide Bombing ? Those guys care for their lives , that is why they engage in hit and run tactics unlike Taliban who are just waiting to meet their 72 virgins .

Equipment wise as well Taliban uses Kalashnikov , Ak-47 etc . I don't think the Maoists have much of these . That is why Maoists are not much a threat to be honest . We are just not hard enough on them otherwise they would be easily wiped out .

Our physical presence in afghanistan will be short live and all around the world think tanks know that this karzai government will collapse as soon as nato leave in 2014 ,we are going to loose our investment and we have run from afghanistan in lang goti .

Why don't you come back with your own flags ? I know you have to face discrimination in the US when you tell them your real nationality but this an internet forum . Nothing will happen , don't worry. Jao jaldi flag badalke aao , jao .

 

[Ticker]

It is none of your business who your neighbour invites to his house as long as it doesn't negatively affect you, for which you don't have any proof .

It is indeed our business to keep a watch on who comes and goes in our neighbourhood. And if the neighbour doesn't behave, he will have to be appropriately ticked and the invitees asked to behave.

The proof is, because we say so.

 

[Peshwa]

It is indeed our business to keep a watch on who comes and goes in our neighbourhood. And if the neighbour doesn't behave, he will have to be appropriately ticked and the invitees asked to behave.

The proof is, because we say so.

If we are to go by your logic....Kashmir being a part of India or "disputed" territory as claimed by our neighbor falls under the neighborhood watch...
and since India has the biggest searchlights, making sure we set those invitees (by RSVP or otherwise) in order is part of our job and right...

Why?...coz we say so...

Do we concur?