keeping in view the present escalation between Chinese and Indians, a bit of 1962....
In 1962 India lost. But it could have won. How?
Simply by refusing to accept the Chinese unilateral cease-fire. Simply by uttering the words “The Government of India is determined to go on fighting till every inch of its soil is freed from enemy occupation.”
But would that not have prolonged the war? A war that we could not have won because India was already defeated?
No. Because with the onset of the hard winter, the Chinese would have had to retire. They could not maintain their troops on the snowy southern side of the Himalayas as they had outrun their communications in their rapid advance into India. Their entire winter policy for Tibet, to this day, calls for leaving the bare minimum forward. and withdrawing the rest to warm, permanent bases’ till the spring. Even in the warm weather they maintain only a third of a unit up a regiment will post a battalion forward, and the rest will remain in comfortable quarters till required.
There was no way in which China could have maintained 20,000 troops inside India through the winter relying on a couple of temporary one-ton roads for supply.
A setback is not a defeat. The Russians retreated one thousand kilometers across their own country suffering the heaviest casualties in the history of war. But they managed to stabilize the front and returned to take Berlin.
A defeat is in the mind--- if you do not give in, you can never be defeated.
The fighting for Thagla Ridge began in September 1962. By the time of the cease-fire, over 36 infantry battalions were in the theatre, the equivalent of four divisions. The Thapar plan for the defence of the Northeast, formulated in 1959, required three divisions for a sure defence of this sensitive area. Now India had the equivalent of four, plus the equivalent of an independent armored brigade waiting on the south bank of the Brahmaputra in case the Chinese crossed into the Indian plains.
The Chinese had perhaps the equivalent of four regiments (one and one-third divisions) against India along the western axis (Bomdila), and elements of a division against the eastern axis (Walong). Moreover, a Chinese division was much lighter in terms of engineers, transport, artillery than its Indian counterpart.
Most important, India had a fine air force of 500 combat aircraft, totally outclassing anything China possessed or anything it could operate out of Tibet.
Even though India had superiority on the ground, it gave in (Nehru again?). And the air force was never used. Why?
Indian Hunters and Gnats would have been more than a match for the Chinese MiG-15s and MiG-17s, and Indian Canberras would have pounded Chinese troops on the ground. Every ton of fuel and ordnance required by the Chinese air force had to be brought across 2000- kilometers of mountain road. IAF operated from large well-connected bases in Eastern India. How long could the Chinese have even flown against IAF, leave alone fight?
IAF, however, was stood down, and the Indian army milled around putting more and more troops into the northeast till, within a year, there were eight large divisions in place.
It is to be accepted that everyone did a bad job before the war and when it broke out. Point is simply this: even after all the setbacks, all the disasters, India could have made a realistic assessment of its adversary, his limits, and own strength. India had only to keep its nerve, or at least recover it after the initial setbacks.
Had the Indian Army been told to go on fighting, it would have done so. After all, death is all a solider faces, and for a soldier there are fates a lot worse than death.
The Indian Army, however, was not told to continue. IAF was not ordered into action. No one ordered the bombing of Lhasa, Gyanste, Shigatse. There was no Lt. Col. Doolittle on Indian side, to make a symbolic—but what a symbol—raid on China . No one determinedly, got together a naval task force to sail off Canton and to lob a few shells at that city (like Pakistan Navy did on Dwarka). Nothing was done, substantial or symbolic, except a grateful acceptance of the ceasefire by a wholly shaken leadership, and by a Nehru so destroyed that he was broken and dead not long after.