Bro things are very different today compared to 4 years ago. Sure militancy can come back but what are the chances of that happening? 10% at best. Take the following into consideration
- Security situation has improved dramatically due to the Indian armies core focus on counter insurgency and tackling militancy
- Economic opportunities are huge at the moment in Kashmir. Indian govt had the forsight to invest tens of billions USD in kashmir. Sure kashmiris might still feel oppressed but job opportunities work wonders. Everything else becomes secondary once a person has a decent job than before
- Many subsidies and job opportunities to kashmiris have been provided in the central govt beaurocracy. Again this narrative (pro economic) is very strong
- Social services in Kashmir are top notch. Billions have been spent in building schools, roads, hospitals. There are dozens of top notch hospital in IOK compared to only 2-3 in Azad Kashmir/Gilgit
- Money talks in this world over anything else including ideology. Think about it if you have a Girlfriend and are bankrupt, if tomorrow a much richer millionaire guy comes and sweeps your GF off her feet what do you think your girl friend would do?? in the modern world she would leave you in less than a minute.... now think about it pak has foreign reserves 2 billion vs india's 600+ bn. Who would kashmiris choose at this point? if not now then in a few years?
Then there are macro factors as well such as the following
- Pakistani army has completely given up on support to militancy groups. This started mainly with Musharaf but no army chief after turned up the heat
- Foreign funding to militancy has been tackled hard
- Border security has been increased significantly even as militancy and terror went down. Indian army didnt take the risk as the pak army did to invest less. They continued to invest even though there was a sharp decline in cross border violence
Again it is sad to state these facts for many of you but it is true. The pakistani army fought harder, lost more lives, and lost more economically yet gave up all those gains in 2-3 years whereby the indians were farsighted and its army leadership never took the risk clearly understanding that budging on its security can lead them back to where they were before. Unfortunately our army leadership never did the same to which we see the results today.
You can say with confidence yes pak army has a lot more experience in fighting battles/wars, but that all went down the drain. Many of those soilders who faught throught 2012-2015 have now retired or are well past their prime. Its honestly a very pathetic state of affairs and the rot started on the top. Both Bajwa & IK were a complete disaster for Pakistans security. IK came to office at a time when militancy was at a all time low.
Every single statistic you can look at will tell you from 2019- today terror attack rose dramatically. IK could have built upon the security system, instead he went around the world calling OBL a martyr, calling taliban freedom fighters, supporting taliban at UN or every international forum he could find. What did IK do for kashmir other than all talk??? did he provide funds to kashmiri freedom fighters? did he send weapons to kashmiri freedom fighters? did he work with ISI to turn up the screws in kashmir??? mind you this was a time when India was in a death trap with COVID 19 and it was the perfect time to act. I said many times on this forum Pak should have taken advantage of those few months. It would have been a cake walk yet what did IK do? NOTHING ZILCH NADA. All talk 0 action.
If IK was a true pakistani nationalist he would never support our sworn enemies (taliban/ttp), infact I dont think IK has any true ideology he follows. Compare this to Modi who would never do the same for Pakistan (indias enemy). Modi is a great leader for India. I wish I could only say the same for IK when it comes to Pak.
Again you might hate me for stating these facts but sometimes its best to give the real picture so we think realistically than fantasize
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