India likely to be world`s no. 1 economy by 2050: Citi

[RoYaL~GuJJaR]

^^^^ I agree...

 

[ChinaToday]

Well. Right now:

1. India GDP nominal is 1.4 trillion.

2. Japan GDP nominal is 5.4 trillion. Japan's nominal GDP is 4 times that of India's.

If India's GDP nominal grow at 9% every year and Japan's GDP grow at 2% every year.

I did the math.

1.09^25=8.623 =>8.623*1.4=12, 12 Trillion for India
1.02^25=1.64 =>1.64*5.4=8.856, 8.9 Trillion for Japan

In about 22 years India's GDP nominal will pass Japan. IF and ONLY if Japa's grow at a low 2% and Indian MUST keep 9% grow !!

HOWEVER, CHINA. Currently at 5.8 Trillion still grow 10%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1.1^25=10.84 => 10.84*5.8=62.8 62.8 Trillion for CHINA!!! 5 times that of India!!!

So the whole article about India's GDP nominal surpassing China at 2050 is a total B.S!!!!!!!!!!!!

hey man do you have to spoil people dreams lol

 

[true_indian]

Well. Right now:

1. India GDP nominal is 1.4 trillion.

2. Japan GDP nominal is 5.4 trillion. Japan's nominal GDP is 4 times that of India's.

If India's GDP nominal grow at 9% every year and Japan's GDP grow at 2% every year.

I did the math.

1.09^25=8.623 =>8.623*1.4=12, 12 Trillion for India
1.02^25=1.64 =>1.64*5.4=8.856, 8.9 Trillion for Japan

In about 22 years India's GDP nominal will pass Japan. IF and ONLY if Japa's grow at a low 2% and Indian MUST keep 9% grow !!

HOWEVER, CHINA. Currently at 5.8 Trillion still grow 10%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1.1^25=10.84 => 10.84*5.8=62.8 62.8 Trillion for CHINA!!! 5 times that of India!!!

So the whole article about India's GDP nominal surpassing China at 2050 is a total B.S!!!!!!!!!!!!

Who's gonna take into account inflation and rupee appreciation.

 

[CardSharp]

Well. Right now:

1. India GDP nominal is 1.4 trillion.

2. Japan GDP nominal is 5.4 trillion. Japan's nominal GDP is 4 times that of India's.

If India's GDP nominal grow at 9% every year and Japan's GDP grow at 2% every year.

I did the math.

1.09^25=8.623 =>8.623*1.4=12, 12 Trillion for India
1.02^25=1.64 =>1.64*5.4=8.856, 8.9 Trillion for Japan

In about 22 years India's GDP nominal will pass Japan. IF and ONLY if Japa's grow at a low 2% and Indian MUST keep 9% grow !!

HOWEVER, CHINA. Currently at 5.8 Trillion still grow 10%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1.1^25=10.84 => 10.84*5.8=62.8 62.8 Trillion for CHINA!!! 5 times that of India!!!

So the whole article about India's GDP nominal surpassing China at 2050 is a total B.S!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well obviously the calculations is made on the assumption 1) that India can keep up Chinese/the 4 East Asian Tiger style 9-10% per year for 30 years, 2) China's growth slow to 4-5% over the next 30 years.

Neither of which is a certainty, but if I had to guess I'd guess number 1 is less likely to come true assumption.

 

[Hyde]

Like i said before....

the article is published by Citigroup who lost her share value from 55 dollars to 1 dollar only in couple of months time. That explains how informed, educative and expert opinion they can give

 

[ChinaToday]

Indians in their wet dreams they already over taking UK , france and germany ,and now only japan china and usa for them to surpass lol

 

[below_freezing]

GDP nominal and PPP are useful for different measurements.

For PPP, it is more useful for a country that already has industrial independence - can produce everything itself. This could be good, or bad. For example, Japan's PPP is far lower than its nominal GDP because costs in Japan are so high. However, China's PPP is almost double the nominal GDP.

For a country that still must import significant amounts of manufactured goods, nominal is more useful for calculating actual buying power, as foreign exchange depends on nominal money only.

However I still think all sorts of GDP are outdated. Hard industrial facts like steel production, shipping volume, electricity production, silicon wafer production, capital assets, food production, years of schooling, literacy, amount of railroads, etc. provide information that GDP does not.

 

[RollingStones]

Do you know the meaning of the word "racist"? Like I said go get an education in reading comprehension and perhaps even analytical reasoning. There are tons of books available, even in HK.

 

[RollingStones]

GDP nominal and PPP are useful for different measurements.

For PPP, it is more useful for a country that already has industrial independence - can produce everything itself. This could be good, or bad. For example, Japan's PPP is far lower than its nominal GDP because costs in Japan are so high. However, China's PPP is almost double the nominal GDP.

For a country that still must import significant amounts of manufactured goods, nominal is more useful for calculating actual buying power, as foreign exchange depends on nominal money only.

However I still think all sorts of GDP are outdated. Hard industrial facts like steel production, shipping volume, electricity production, silicon wafer production, capital assets, food production, years of schooling, literacy, amount of railroads, etc. provide information that GDP does not.

I agree. Upon further research, I find India has a robust manufacturing industry - from refineries to automobiles. I even noticed some amount of semi conductor and storage media manufacturing. India has Universities, and quality health care in pockets. Actually, they seem to have the only derivatives market in a developing country??? And, they have a space program, even if with intermediate payloads and a nice collection of satellites. That's not bad at all. It seems like a complete country but if only they can crank up the speed of reforms and their FDI per year now ranges in the $20B to $30B per year up from just $6B or so half a decade ago. India must get its governance and justice system sorted out. They also need to get their democracy closer to a true democracy with more equitable political participation. Bad judicial procedures and case backlogs means that mid size investors cannot invest confidently in India. I think India needs to promote a more equitable growth rather than large conglomerates controlling everything. One thing I am really surprised is that India does not have a search engine of its own. A fairer governance and judicial system (I am a bit appalled at the archaic judicial system; I mean the Justice system can be reformed probably in the most cost efficient and quickest way) will propel India to massive heights. Citizens need to wake up for that.

 

[below_freezing]

I agree. Upon further research, I find India has a robust manufacturing industry - from refineries to automobiles. I even noticed some amount of semi conductor and storage media manufacturing. India has Universities, and quality health care in pockets. Actually, they seem to have the only derivatives market in a developing country??? And, they have a space program, even if with intermediate payloads and a nice collection of satellites. That's not bad at all. It seems like a complete country but if only they can crank up the speed of reforms and their FDI per year now ranges in the $20B to $30B per year up from just $6B or so half a decade ago. India must get its governance and justice system sorted out. They also need to get their democracy closer to a true democracy with more equitable political participation. Bad judicial procedures and case backlogs means that mid size investors cannot invest confidently in India. I think India needs to promote a more equitable growth rather than large conglomerates controlling everything. One thing I am really surprised is that India does not have a search engine of its own. A fairer governance and judicial system (I am a bit appalled at the archaic judicial system; I mean the Justice system can be reformed probably in the most cost efficient and quickest way) will propel India to massive heights. Citizens need to wake up for that.

India has several major problems:

machine tools need to be imported, this is the true definition of independence. computer controlled welders, milling machines, cutters, industrial printers, packers, fillers, etc. all need to be imported.

heavy industrial goods need to be imported such as boilers, reactors, even diesel engines.

software tools using that of the West. Don't be fooled by the IT propaganda, Indian IT sector is horrible, there are zero independent Indian software products.

spending excessive money on military which is amplified by the high PPP:nominal ratio

derivatives markets is the last thing India needs, same with universities; for India's level of development they need primary schools, all Universities will do is crank out the West's future scientists.

in semiconductors, they are still far behind China (which is incidently #1 in manufacturing semiconductors but not in design). Storage media is easier to create than processors, which unfortunately only a select elite club can produce and even a more elite club can design.

there is no such thing as true democracy except in ancient greece IMO. India needs a tough government that can make and enforce hard decisions without paying itself.

india right now is at the level of Iran in technology but Iran shows a stronger upward trend in number of papers published. It has a long way to go.

 

[DesiGuy]

India likely to be world`s no. 1 economy by 2050


Not again, man..

 

[ephone]

I am not sure at what rate China grows so that India can overtake China?

You have to assume two rates for Both China and India to show such comparison. Furthermore, are those two rates reasonable assumption for both countries?

To be honest, I really see little possibility such will happen.

Citi in its latest report on Global Growth Generators said that India can overtake China and the US to become the largest economy in the world by 2050.

``China should overtake the US to become the largest economy in the world by 2020, and then be overtaken by India by 2050,`` Willem Buiter, Economist, Citigroup said.

It expects strong growth in the world economy until 2050, with average real GDP growth rates of 4.6% pa until 2030 and 3.8% pa between 2030 and 2050 - as a result, world GDP should rise in real PPP-adjusted terms from USD 72 trillion in 2010 to USD 380 trillion in 2050.

Developing Asia and Africa will be the fastest growing regions, driven by population and income per capita growth, followed in terms of growth by the Middle East, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, the CIS, and finally the advanced nations of today.

Many EMs have either opened up already or are expected to do so, and have reached a threshold level of institutional quality and political stability.

Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Mongolia, Nigeria, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam have the most promising (per capita) growth prospects and they are 3G countries.

Institutions and policies are more important for growth once countries have achieved a fair degree of convergence, it added.

``Growth will not be smooth. Expect booms and busts. Occasionally, there will be growth disasters, driven by poor policy, conflicts, or natural disasters. When it comes to that, don`t believe that `this time it`s different,`` it concluded

http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/storyShow.php?fileR=20110223193532038&dir=2011/02/23&secID=livenews

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How can Citi Bank ever publish such news? India wont even be a top 2 economy, let alone a #1.

 

[ephone]

BTW, we Chinese people are quite modest. We indeed surpass Japan and do not think it is really a big deal.

US is the last one to overtake. Even when we achieve that, I really do not think that is a big deal either.

The reason is quite simple: China has been the wealthiest country throughout most of the past 2000 years. So backing to be on top is simply just back to historical norm.

Well, we do not chant day in and day out about such wild prediction. We do not need bash India members' enthusiasm. If they want to believe it, well, what harm can that do to us?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

China has already became the second largest economy, so it makes sense that there are some predictions about China surpassing US in nominal GDP.

India isn't even in top 10 yet, so it is too early to say India to surpass everyone in nominal GDP.

 

[true_indian]

BTW, we Chinese people are quite modest. We indeed surpass Japan and do not think it is really a big deal.

US is the last one to overtake. Even when we achieve that, I really do not think that is a big deal either.

The reason is quite simple: China has been the wealthiest country throughout most of the past 2000 years. So backing to be on top is simply just back to historical norm.

Well, we do not chant day in and day out about such wild prediction. We do not need bash India members' enthusiasm. If they want to believe it, well, what harm can that do to us?

Well I appreciate your modesty. But what you said is not entirely true. India has been the most wealthiest for the most part of last 2000 years not China. China had overtaken India marginally once or twice for few centuries. Here is the list.

http://www.theworldeconomy.org/MaddisonTables/MaddisontableB-18.pdf

Well if you wanna go back to true historical norm, then India should top the list ain't it?