India likely to be world`s no. 1 economy by 2050: Citi

[Protectionist Gareth]

One member said India overtaking Japan in 2050 not possible!!!!!!BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHA!That's what i call the wettest of wet dreams.
India is predicted to be the 3rd largest economy at the end of this decade only behind USA and china

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

One member said India overtaking Japan in 2050 not possible!!!!!!BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHA!That's what i call the wettest of wet dreams.

India is predicted to be the 3rd largest economy at the end of this decade only behind USA and china

No it is not.

List of countries by future GDP (nominal) estimates - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Far from it.

 

[bhagat]

we don't no what happens in future but look at the current scenario of the indian economy
India's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows dipped sharply in 2010 by 22% at USD 21 billion compared to USD 27 billion in 2009. The investment climate going down and we are coming up with a 9% growth target.look at stock market it dipped 10% in last six months.our economy became very chaos in last year in the wake of all these scams.

 

[RollingStones]

Cannot use NOMINAL GDPs. Nominal GDPs are based on parities to the dollar. They are completely wrong. Local currency GDP growth and inflation is the correct one. Also, the GDPs themselves are the wrong estimates to look at. Rampant under invoicing and under reporting of production to evade excise duties in developing countries means we cant say with any degree of certainty what the actual output is and therefore GDP is a bad bad number to look at for developing countries. The things to look at are installed power capacity, federal and state government budgetary receipts, etc. which are fully measurable and then use a multiple of that as GDP. If India has more installed capacity than Japan, for instance, by 2020, and it has a better capacity utilization rate than Japan, then its economy 100% will be larger than Japan. Also, if the Indian rupee appreciated against the dollar (which it will, as interest rates in India will remain high while it is will remain very low in the US), then in dollar terms Indian GDP will still be higher. So, please avoid making simplistic peasant type statements.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

So, please avoid making simplistic peasant type statements.

If Indians want to think that they will somehow "surpass" Japan in 2020, by any worthwhile measure (obviously not by GDP though) then go ahead.

You can dream all you want.

 

[Sonic_boom]

No it is not.

List of countries by future GDP (nominal) estimates - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Far from it.

India will be among top three economies by 2050: US think tank


And I thought Wiki was not considered credible in PDF

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Rollingstones, hopefully this is not the level of debate you want to bring here, i.e. racism.

Well, I am not surprised. That simply shows that Chinese have not intellectually arrived yet and still lack superior thought processes.

 

[Imran Khan]

you guys always thinking for number-1 now its new story abut no-1 enemy of world hehehhehe

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

India will be among top three economies by 2050: US think tank

And I thought Wiki was not considered credible in PDF

Well did you read the difference between 2020 and 2050? The difference is 30 years in fact.

And please show me any source that proves this claim.

India is predicted to be the 3rd largest economy at the end of this decade only behind USA and china

P.S. The reliability of wiki depends on the original source, which in this case was the IMF.

 

[Sonic_boom]

Well did you read the difference between 2020 and 2050? The difference is 30 years in fact.

And please show me any source that proves this claim.



P.S. The reliability of wiki depends on the original source, which in this case was the IMF.

In case you havent noticed i had posted link..


In the revised 2007 figures, based on increased and sustaining growth, more inflows into foreign direct investment, Goldman Sachs predicts that "from 2007 to 2020, India’s GDP per capita in US$ terms will quadruple", and that the Indian economy will surpass the United States (in US$) by 2043.[13] In spite of the high growth rate, the report stated that India would continue to remain a low-income country for decades to come but could be a "motor for the world economy" if it fulfills its growth potential.



This is a report from Goldman Sachs
http://www.usindiafriendship.net/viewpoints1/Indias_Rising_Growth_Potential.pdf

 

[RollingStones]

Chinese-Dragon, can you please stop your nonsense and go get an education?

 

[AerospaceEngineer]

Citi in its latest report on Global Growth Generators said that India can overtake China and the US to become the largest economy in the world by 2050.

``China should overtake the US to become the largest economy in the world by 2020, and then be overtaken by India by 2050,`` Willem Buiter, Economist, Citigroup said.

It expects strong growth in the world economy until 2050, with average real GDP growth rates of 4.6% pa until 2030 and 3.8% pa between 2030 and 2050 - as a result, world GDP should rise in real PPP-adjusted terms from USD 72 trillion in 2010 to USD 380 trillion in 2050.

Developing Asia and Africa will be the fastest growing regions, driven by population and income per capita growth, followed in terms of growth by the Middle East, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, the CIS, and finally the advanced nations of today.

Many EMs have either opened up already or are expected to do so, and have reached a threshold level of institutional quality and political stability.

Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Mongolia, Nigeria, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam have the most promising (per capita) growth prospects and they are 3G countries.

Institutions and policies are more important for growth once countries have achieved a fair degree of convergence, it added.

``Growth will not be smooth. Expect booms and busts. Occasionally, there will be growth disasters, driven by poor policy, conflicts, or natural disasters. When it comes to that, don`t believe that `this time it`s different,`` it concluded

http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/storyShow.php?fileR=20110223193532038&dir=2011/02/23&secID=livenews

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How can Citi Bank ever publish such news? India wont even be a top 2 economy, let alone a #1.

What matters is NOT PPP. It is the GDP nomnial!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Chinese-Dragon, can you please stop your nonsense and go get an education?

Nice personal attack.

Do you want to explain your racist post above?

 

[AerospaceEngineer]

GDP projections from PwC: how China, India and Brazil will overtake the West by 2050 | News | guardian.co.uk

The average prediction of the future ever came true is about 10% or less, however there are hundreds of economic predictions, pick and choose the one that make you happy will be the key.

lol.

Again, your post is about PPP. It is useless.

If you count the PPP of Africa, it is larger than India.

What matter is the GDP nonminal!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

 

[AerospaceEngineer]

It is too early to tell, when India can surpass Japan in nominal GDP?

Well. Right now:

1. India GDP nominal is 1.4 trillion.

2. Japan GDP nominal is 5.4 trillion. Japan's nominal GDP is 4 times that of India's.

If India's GDP nominal grow at 9% every year and Japan's GDP grow at 2% every year.

I did the math.

1.09^25=8.623 =>8.623*1.4=12, 12 Trillion for India
1.02^25=1.64 =>1.64*5.4=8.856, 8.9 Trillion for Japan

In about 22 years India's GDP nominal will pass Japan. IF and ONLY if Japa's grow at a low 2% and Indian MUST keep 9% grow !!

HOWEVER, CHINA. Currently at 5.8 Trillion still grow 10%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1.1^25=10.84 => 10.84*5.8=62.8 62.8 Trillion for CHINA!!! 5 times that of India!!!

So the whole article about India's GDP nominal surpassing China at 2050 is a total B.S!!!!!!!!!!!!