INDIA HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF OVERTAKING CHINA

[Akasa]

It has been reported widely that India will eventually overtake China in growth in the next few years.

India has a high chance of overtaking China in the next few years, due to some simple facts:
- India's population is acceleration faster than China's
- India's population is younger than China's
- India does not have a one-child policy, therefore is able to sustain population growth
- India has a head start in entrepreneurial capabilities
- India has more freedom in both economics and speech

Articles:

India to overtake China in 2020: Swaminathan Aiyar - The Times of India

In the past decades, India has been world number one in starvation deaths, foreign aid and bribery. In the 2000s, it was transformed from a chronic under-performer to a potential superpower. Here are eight predictions of what it will look like in 2020:

India will overtake China as the fastest-growing economy in the world. China will start ageing and suffering from a declining workforce, and will be forced to revalue its currency. So its growth will decelerate, just as Japan decelerated in the 1990s after looking unstoppable in the 1980s. Having become the world's second-biggest economy, China's export-oriented model will erode sharply - the world will no longer be able to absorb its exports at the earlier pace. Meanwhile, India will gain demographically with a growing workforce that is more literate than ever before. The poorer Indian states will start catching up with the richer ones. This will take India's GDP growth to 10% by 2020, while China's growth will dip to 7-8%.

India will become the largest English-speaking nation in the world, overtaking the US. So, the global publishing industry will shift in a big way to India. Rupert Murdoch's heirs will sell his collapsing media empire to Indian buyers. The New York Times will become a subsidiary of an Indian publishing giant.

In the 2000s, India finally gained entry into the nuclear club, and sanctions against it were lifted. By 2020, Indian companies will be major exporters of nuclear equipment, a vital link in the global supply chain. So, India will be in a position to impose nuclear sanctions on others.

India, along with the US and Canada, will develop new technology to extract natural gas from gas hydrates - a solidified form of gas lying on ocean floors. India has the largest gas hydrate deposits in the world, and so will become the biggest global producer. This will enable India to substitute gas for coal in power generation, hugely reducing carbon emissions and making Jairam Ramesh look saintly.

India will also discover enormous deposits of shale gas in its vast shale formations running through the Gangetic plain, Assam, Rajasthan and Gujarat. New technology has made the extraction of shale gas economic, so India will become a major gas producer and exporter. Meanwhile, Iran's mullahs will be overthrown, and a new democratic regime will usher in rapid economic growth that creates a shortage of gas in Iran by 2020. So, the Iran-India pipeline will be recast, but in reverse form: India will now export gas to Iran.

More and more regions of India will demand separate statehood. By 2020, India will have 50 states instead of the current 28. The new states will not exactly be small. With 50 states and a population of almost 1.5 billion, India will average 30 million people per state, far higher than the current US average of 6 million per state.

China, alarmed at India's rise, will raise tensions along the Himalayan border. China will threaten to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra from Tibet to water-scarce northern China. India will threaten to bomb any such project. The issue will go to the Security Council.

Islamic fundamentalists will take over in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US will withdraw from the region, leaving India to bear the brunt of consequences. Terrorism will rise in India, but the economy will still keep growing. How so? Well, 3000 people die every year falling off Mumbai's suburban trains, and that does not stop Mumbai's growth. Terrorism will bruise India, but not halt its growth.​

 

[CardSharp]

This is a joke right? Haha you got me, Times of India.

 

[below_freezing]

India has already overtaken China on important indicators such as value of bribes, starvation deaths, illiteracy, foreign aid, terrorism, crime, AIDS, and racial/caste violence.

 

[Akasa]

This is a joke right? Haha you got me, Times of India.

There are many other articles. I'm just using one as an example.

 

[CardSharp]

There are many other articles. I'm just using one as an example.

This is just beyond delusional. If a Chinese journalist wrote something like this about China, Chinese people would laugh their front teeth off.

 

[Akasa]

This is just beyond delusional. If a Chinese journalist wrote something like this, Chinese people would laugh their front teeth off.

Tell that to the economists.

 

[Machoman]

Another thread wher lot of trolling going to come from indian member. Watch..

 

[Water Car Engineer]

This is just beyond delusional. If a Chinese journalist wrote something like this, Chinese people would laugh their front teeth off.

Well dont underestimate, people would have LMAOed if media started saying China would over take European nations or even America eventually economically in the 50s-90s.

India is in no hurry to pass China.

 

[CardSharp]

Well dont underestimate, people would have LMAOed if media started saying China would over take European nations or even America eventually economically in the 50s-90s.

India is in no hurry to pass China.

Maybe maybe not but certainly not for the reasons the author gives.

 

[WeaponUnleashed]

You have got to be kidding me...

 

[CardSharp]

This is a book review for another India author with similar ideas.


Chasing a Dream

Based on the shaky premise that India is capable of catching up with China, this book will appeal to Indians if not the Chinese.

BY Ninad D. Sheth

This is a brave book. While it chronicles the spectacular rise of China as the world’s second largest economy, the book gets truly exciting when it hints that India can catch up with its neighbour. Given our robust entrepreneurial tradition and capital infusion, Bahl argues that to achieve this goal, we only need to have in place a committed political leadership and democracy attuned to delivery through rule of law.

This is a shaky premise. On almost every count, China is way ahead of India. Its economy is four times that of India; its exports, at more than $1 trillion, are bigger than India’s GDP. It invests more and saves more than India, and its growth rate, despite the recent cooling of its economy, hovers at 9 per cent, above India’s headline-grabbing rate of 8.8 per cent last quarter.

The principal merit of the book is in its ability to look at India’s economic and political challenges in the face. The author laments the fact that unlike China, whose leadership has shown the world that 350 million people can be pulled out of poverty in little over two decades, India has lacked a ‘transformational leadership’. This weakness is present at all levels of Indian politics. For example, the UPA’s NREGA pales in comparison with China’s agriculture bank, which hands out rural loans.

The book also has an informative chapter on the geopolitical relationship of the two countries. The author points out correctly that the Chinese hold India, and especially the Indian military, in contempt. This is apparent most of all in the hardening of the Chinese position on the border issue over the last five years. India had hoped that recognising Tibet as an ‘autonomous part of China’ during former Prime Minister AB Vajpayee’s 2003 visit to Beijing would calm relations. If anything, China’s position has hardened. China has reportedly positioned troops in Gilgit last month, denied the Indian general in charge of Kashmir a visa, and worse, repeatedly stated that Arunachal Pradesh is part of its territory. Also, it has built two new nuclear plants for Pakistan. This is an aggressive and assertive China that is making South Block increasingly queasy.

One contention that Bahl makes in favour of the long-term chance of India catching up with China’s finances comes from the so-called demographic dividend that India may reap over the next two decades. China will get old before it gets rich, while India will have the world’s largest working-age population. In reality, of course, India stares at a demographic nightmare. As argued by economist Shankar Acharya in a recent book, the large majority of this workforce that India is counting on will be under-educated, ill-fed and ill-trained. To employ these large numbers, India will need the type of industries that China dominates—low-skill, mass-employing factories of toys and socks. India, though, specialises in higher-end industrialisation, such as plants involved in the making of car parts, which needs a better-educated workforce. What is more, most of India’s growth prospects are in the services sector, where employment possibilities are fewer atill for the under-educated.

This book is sure to be a bestseller in this country with its optimism about the Indian tiger’s chances of catching up with the dragon. But readers in China would likely await a book that weighs its chances against the US. Now, that would be a more realistic assessment of the shadow that the future casts on today’s world

 

[Water Car Engineer]

@SinoSoldier

You should post something other then Times of India dude. I heard this from other media how ever.

 

[CardSharp]

One contention that Bahl makes in favour of the long-term chance of India catching up with China’s finances comes from the so-called demographic dividend that India may reap over the next two decades. China will get old before it gets rich, while India will have the world’s largest working-age population. In reality, of course, India stares at a demographic nightmare. As argued by economist Shankar Acharya in a recent book, the large majority of this workforce that India is counting on will be under-educated, ill-fed and ill-trained. To employ these large numbers, India will need the type of industries that China dominates—low-skill, mass-employing factories of toys and socks. India, though, specialises in higher-end industrialisation, such as plants involved in the making of car parts, which needs a better-educated workforce. What is more, most of India’s growth prospects are in the services sector, where employment possibilities are fewer atill for the under-educated.

This I hope is apparent enough, to put to rest any talk of a demographic edge.

 

[Bilal Akhtar]

not in a million years,i am sure this is coming from some indian source.

 

[UnitedPak]

heh. Didnt know ToI now "reports" future events. I wont even bother asking for sources, but is anyone else alarmed at the boasting and bragging rights we see today over rather trivial accomplishments / random and obscure events (and now future developments)? I cant even comprehend what it will be like in the future.
However it was refreshing to read about the terrorist takeover of Pakistan. Nothing beats an article ending so originally. Beautiful, seriously.