India fuming over Russia lifting its Pakistan arms embargo, what next?

[Zarvan]

India fuming over Russia lifting its Pakistan arms embargo, what next?


Rajeev Sharma is a New Delhi-based journalist, author and strategic analyst. He tweets @Kishkindha and can be reached at bhootnath004@yahoo.com.

Mi-35 helicopters (RIA Novosti/Alexander Vilf)




India is fuming with anger over Russia’s recent baffling decision to lift its embargo on the supply of Mi-35 attack helicopters and defense equipment to Pakistan.

Well-informed Indian diplomats told me on Thursday that the Russian decision would actually be the proverbial last straw on the camel’s back if Moscow does not abandon this move.

A lot of communication has taken place between India and Russia through diplomatic channels on this issue and India has conveyed to the Russians that until this red rag is removed once and for all India won’t be able to take it as business as usual with the Russians.

Russian diplomats have tried to calm the Indian nerves by saying that Islamabad won’t be given access to sensitive technologies. However, Indians are not convinced and are dropping hints of an all-or-nothing approach.

Though there have been no official statements so far, it seems that India would like Russia to scrap its plans to lift arms sale embargo on Pakistan completely. Nothing less than that would satisfy New Delhi.

‘Spit on my face’
Indian diplomats have reminded their Russian counterparts of very strong statements made by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin on October 14, 2012, during his official visit to India for talks with then-Indian External Affairs Minister SM Krishna. Rogozin had told the Indian media to “spit on my face” if Russia were to arm India’s enemies.

Sample the highly publicized remarks of Rogozin in New Delhi: “You must understand that we do not deal with your enemies. We don't deliver any arms to them.... If you see otherwise, you may spit on my face.”

Rogozin did not stop there, saying that Russia had no restrictions in delivering arms and weapons to India "because there are no conflicts and contradictions in our relations." He added: "We never created problems for India on its frontiers in difference from other countries. That is a political advantage (for Russia) as a friend of India."

Indubitably, the Indian diplomats would be reminding Rogozin of his remarks along with press clippings when he arrives in New Delhi at the end of this month.

Rogozin came to India just 100 days ago and said some very positive things about Indo-Russian ties. He talked in glowing terms about the possibility of a new oil pipeline between Russia to India which will run parallel to the $7.6 billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. Rogozin had gone on record as saying thus about the new pipeline in his media interview: “This is one of the major infrastructure projects that can be implemented. I think it has a right to exist, but we should make calculations to see how profitable it can be.”

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) shakes hands with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif before the start of their bilateral meeting in New Delhi May 27, 2014. (Reuters/Adnan Abidi)

Tough Indian stand bamboozles Russia
It is quite probable that given the solid, half-century-old strategic relationship between India and Russia, Russian policymakers underestimated the Indian response. They timed the move at a time when a new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just come into office.

While the Indians have dropped hints to Russians about their “us or them” approach – meaning that it is for Russia to choose between India and Pakistan – India has not come up with any official statement so far, nor is it likely to.

Nobody from India has officially conveyed the “us or them” approach to the Russians officially, nor has anyone told the Russians that India would go slow on its current defense deals with Russia and push the pause button in its relationship with Russia, but the fact is that all these are strong possibilities.

One thing is for sure: That Rogozin will be told in clear terms that the Russian move has triggered a question of trust deficit with the Russians, something that never happened all these decades.

The Russian diplomats are already realizing that they enormously underestimated the response of the new Indian government and perhaps mistakenly thought that the new government would be too busy with other issues to bother about the Russian move.

Yes, it is true that Russia has had “very good cooperation and cohesion” with the new Indian prime minister, as stated by Russian Ambassador Alexander Kadakin.

Yes, it is correct that Modi had three successful visits to Russia when he was the chief minister of Gujarat.

Yes, it is also correct that Russia never denied a visa to Modi, like many western countries, including the US and EU bloc did over his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots.

But Russia needs to remember that Pakistan still continues to be a major concern for India and no Indian government can expect Russia to make this kind of move and arm that enemy of India which has waged three full-fledged wars with India (1947-48, 1965, and 1971) and one limited war in Kargil (1999).

India would never compromise with any country on the issue of Pakistan. This is the bottom line that all friends of India need to understand and this has nothing to do with who is at the helm of power in India.

For Indians man grow up we are least interested with Russian equipment other than helicopters at most we make try to get an engine for our JF-17 Thunder other than that no Sir we either make our own or get from China or some where else and as for helicopter I think MI-28 yes we should go for but MI-35 is just a joke

 

[Abingdonboy]

What Indians should take note of is that Chinese tanks are just as good as Russians and Chinese destroyers are way superior to anything that Russia has

Well how arbitrary. What about Chinese radars or fighter jets or submarines or missiles or EW systems are they all as good as Russia's? Get real.

Nope it's simple logic. You think some reverse engineering and a defence industry that has barley started designing its own tech (that too still based on stolen IP) is going to overtake the world's 2nd greatest designer and producer of arms? China is yet to replace Russian origin engines with Chinese ones in its entire fleet whilst Russia has dozens of designed and in production engines in service and is working on jet engines that are at least a decade ahead of anything the Chiense are currently working on. Who is the one engaging in wishful thinking now then? In many areas China is decades behind Russia and the West in defence tech.


I will admit China has come along way but I'm smart enough to appreciate it has a hell of a long way still to go and you can't just leapfrog tech here you have to put in the time and effort in the R&D which takes years and decades to pay off. China is investing in it now but it won't overtake Russia anytime soon but it WILL happen- of that I have no doubt. Perhaps in 20 years.

Isn't that a bit of wishful thinking? What if your thinking is wrong and Chinese tech becomes actually better than Russian ones, lets say a hypothetical scenario, what is India's strategy then? India will still be buying inferior Russian weapons systems?

You're anti-Indian mentality is blinding you so much it's pathetic to witness.


But let's engage in your hypothetical, if that was to happen then India will just get more and more kit from Europe, Isreal and primarily the US. No one is going to match the US on defence prowess for 50+ years at least. And you are making out that India is 100% dependant on Russia now, this hasn't been true for a decade or so and will increasingly become less true as the years go by.


Additionally India's own defence industry which is coming along leaps and bounds currently will in a few decades (when perhaps Russia's supremacy over China in this field starts to be challenged) will start to come good in a big way. The big advantage India has over China in developing its own defence industry is that the high-tech foreign industry leaders are wanting to and willing to invest in India's defence industry and offer ToT and engage in JVs but China has to do this all alone. This is one major ace India has up its sleeve. Chine has to do it all the hard way- make the mistakes, go through arduous R&D cycles but India will have ready access to mountains of data and can perhaps cut down the timelines to gain parity with China.

Either way by 2045-50 India and China will be the 2 largest economies on the planet and there is no way either of them won't have mature and capable defence industries of their own by then.

 

[Basel]

Perhaps. What has always perplexed me is that whilst the US is selling the world's most advanced gunship (AH-64E) to India, they won't offer the Super Conbra to Pakistan which is less capable and not exactly going to change the power balance in the region.

gunship helicopter don't fight each other like fighter jets, they are for CAS for advancing troops or in case COs want to use them for defense. Therefore, even if Mi-28s fulfill the need of PA and fits their fighting doctrine they will be as deadly as AH-64Es.

 

[MilSpec]

Isn't that a bit of wishful thinking? What if your thinking is wrong and Chinese tech becomes actually better than Russian ones, lets say a hypothetical scenario, what is India's strategy then? India will still be buying inferior Russian weapons systems?

India has always had access to french and British systems ad off late has been offered top tier equipment from US aswell. In your worded hypothetical scenario, IF chinese tech surpasses Russian technology, We will still have access to European and american market. and If there is another hypothetical scenario where India has no access to any technology then we will improvise with whatever we have or be conquered by marauding herds if that would please the discourse...

 

[Abingdonboy]

gunship helicopter don't fight each other like fighter jets, they are for CAS for advancing troops or in case COs want to use them for defense

I know that mate.

Therefore, even if Mi-28s fulfill the need of PA

Mi-28s aren't on offer to Paksitan, supposedly its the Mi-35s.

hey will be as deadly as AH-64Es.

Well I don't see how but okay.

 

[MilSpec]

He is Indian so naturally does not want China to beat Russia in weapons tech for obvious reasons.

What Indians should take note of is that Chinese tanks are just as good as Russians and Chinese destroyers are way superior to anything that Russia has

Overall, the two countries are about equal now in military tech but China is progressing faster and should be equal to or better than Russia in all areas by 2020.

Did you test them? what has been the combat performance of Chinese tanks?

Please do look up origins of almost all chinese defense projects, most of their origins are russian....

 

[UKBengali]

Did you test them? what has been the combat performance of Chinese tanks?

Please do look up origins of almost all chinese defense projects, most of their origins are russian....

What has been the combat performance of Russian tanks then?

You Indians will always be jealous of China's success.

 

[Basel]

Mi-28s aren't on offer to Paksitan, supposedly its the Mi-35s.

I know they may not be offered but I just put a comparison, although T-129 is on offer and it may prove more deadly then Mi-28 if PA inducts them.

 

[UKBengali]

India has always had access to french and British systems ad off late has been offered top tier equipment from US aswell. In your worded hypothetical scenario, IF chinese tech surpasses Russian technology, We will still have access to European and american market. and If there is another hypothetical scenario where India has no access to any technology then we will improvise with whatever we have or be conquered by marauding herds if that would please the discourse...

Please advise us when US offers you F-22 fighters and Virginia class SSNs please.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Please advise us when US offers you F-22 fighters and Virginia class SSNs please.

Who does it offer those to?

I don't believe India is "fuming" over a few helicopters, which will aid in eliminating terrorist vermin. India has numerous complex defence deals with the Russians and these are long duration projects.

It's the principle of the thing. The Russians have said publicly they would never arm India's enemies (read the "spit on my face" comment by Russia's deputy PM) and they are supposedly willing to provide gunships to Pakistan now?

I'm sorry but sure that's who you would sell such a purchase to the world but we all know that Pakistan would turn these against India in a heartbeat. Almost all the military aid Pakistan has received from the West to use against terrorists has been channeled into conventional arms that are pointed against India.

India has also bought from the US e.g. Globemasters and is soon to ink contracts for the Apache.....The Russians were not "fuming" either. The Russians also know Pakistan will not ask for"big ticket" items due to India being very familiar with them.

It's irrelevant mate. Like I said it is the principle of the thing and anyway Russia has Billions of dollars worth of defence deals still on the table with India regardless of India diversifying with Western equipment. Are they really going to let their greed in wanting to monopolise the entire Indian defence budget put their relationship with India at risk?

 

[MilSpec]

What has been the combat performance of Russian tanks then?

You Indians will always be jealous of China's success.

T-72 has been used by over 40 countries worldwide. Which itself is a significant testament in it's initial quality.

In 1982 1st Armoured Division of Syria, equipped with T-72 tanks, crossed the border and hit the right flank of the Israeli units advancing along the eastern side of Beka'a. The T-72s clashed with several companies of M60s, destroying some Israeli companies in process while suffering only a few losses in exchange.Russian sources claim that the T-72 had success against the latest Israeli Merkava tanks and that no T-72s were lost. Others claim that the two tanks never met in combat and that 11-12 T-72s were lost mostly due to anti-tank ambushes and the usage of TOW missiles. Only one Syrian T-72 probably was knocked out by Israeli tank fire

The Iraqi T-72s performed well against opposing Iranian tanks such as M48s, M60A1s and Chieftains in the Iran-Iraq war. In the early stages of war, the Iraqi battalion T-72 tanks faced with the Iranian battalion of Chieftain tanks. During a tank battle all Iranian tanks were destroyed. In turn, the Iraqis have suffered no losses.Iraqi T-72 had great success in the battle for Basra and the last stages of the war.105mm M68 tank guns and TOW missiles proved ineffective against the frontal armor of Iraqi T-72s

T72, suffered heavy casualties at the hand on US in the Iraq' invasion but then again even if Iraq fielded M1 Abrams, the result would have been the same as the opposition was extremely strong.

Even with complete ToT and soft loan arrangement between china and pakistan, the later still chose 320 T-80UDs, which might say something about the product evaluation of t80 tanks as credible competition to T72m1 and T90 bhisma tanks.

T72m1 and T90 bhisma's form the backbone of the indian armor, which has put these assets through thorough evaluation and found them satisfactory against pakistani and chinese threats.

As far as Chinese tanks are concerned :
The Type 58 was the first Chinese tank ever built. It was designed from the SovietT-34-85 tank

Type 59 main battle tank is a Chinese produced version of the SovietT-54A tank

NorincoType 62 is a Chinese light tank developed in the early 1960s and is based on the Type 59> T54

NorincoType 63 is a Chinese amphibious light tank was a developed from experience with the earlier Soviet PT-76

The Type 69 and Type 79 are two models of Chinesemain battle tanks. Both developments of theType 59 (based on the Soviet T-54A

The Type 80 is a series of medium second-generation main battle tanks (MBTs) from China. The first Type 80 MBT was based on the older Type 79 MBT hull, but equipped with new Chinese-made wheels/tracks, German-designed 730 hp diesel engine, British-designed dual-axis stabilized fire-control with laser range-finder, and NATO-standard 105 mm gun licensed from Austria

After examining samples of T-72 tanks delivered by Iran in the late 1980s (captured from the Iraqi Army), the Chinese military realized contemporary Chinese tanks were still vulnerable. Design features of the T-72 and some western tanks were used to develop a second generation of Chinese tanks, eventually incorporating a redesigned hull and suspension, a new welded turret and 125 mm autoloaded tank gun. The Type 80 and Type 85 tanks led to the Type 90. The Type 90 was rejected for Chinese service in favour of other designs, but it influenced further development which would lead to China's third-generation Type 98 and Type 99 tanks

So apart from Type 98 and 99, chinese haven't really developed anything on thier own, but still have some how surpassed one of the largest armored vehicle producer in the world.

Please advise us when US offers you F-22 fighters and Virginia class SSNs please.

advise? Well comprehension has been a fading skill these days... but there was f35, EFT rafale, Pakfa, f18sh, and if needed even f15Silent Eagle on offer to india as and when needed not to mention the most advanced Awacs C4I and maritime units. But that seems to cause enormous BH to the anti India rhetoric.

 

[waz]

I'm sorry but sure that's who you would sell such a purchase to the world but we all know that Pakistan would turn these against India in a heartbeat. Almost all the military aid Pakistan has received from the West to use against terrorists has been channeled into conventional arms that are pointed against India.

So India would be "excluding" certain weapons against Pakistan I take it? Our Cobras give terrorists hell and can knock out armour, it's call "duel use" and every nation does it.

I'm personally against buying anything from Russia, especially with their backtracking over the comments. Pakistan has plenty of better options.

It's irrelevant mate. Like I said it is the principle of the thing and anyway Russia has Billions of dollars worth of defence deals still on the table with India regardless of India diversifying with Western equipment. Are they really going to let their greed in wanting to monopolise the entire Indian defence budget put their relationship with India at risk?

I said a similar thing my friend.

 

[l'ingénieur]

People arguing on this thread like they control their nation's army

 

[UKBengali]

T-72 has been used by over 40 countries worldwide. Which itself is a significant testament in it's initial quality.

In 1982 1st Armoured Division of Syria, equipped with T-72 tanks, crossed the border and hit the right flank of the Israeli units advancing along the eastern side of Beka'a. The T-72s clashed with several companies of M60s, destroying some Israeli companies in process while suffering only a few losses in exchange.Russian sources claim that the T-72 had success against the latest Israeli Merkava tanks and that no T-72s were lost. Others claim that the two tanks never met in combat and that 11-12 T-72s were lost mostly due to anti-tank ambushes and the usage of TOW missiles. Only one Syrian T-72 probably was knocked out by Israeli tank fire

The Iraqi T-72s performed well against opposing Iranian tanks such as M48s, M60A1s and Chieftains in the Iran-Iraq war. In the early stages of war, the Iraqi battalion T-72 tanks faced with the Iranian battalion of Chieftain tanks. During a tank battle all Iranian tanks were destroyed. In turn, the Iraqis have suffered no losses.Iraqi T-72 had great success in the battle for Basra and the last stages of the war.105mm M68 tank guns and TOW missiles proved ineffective against the frontal armor of Iraqi T-72s

T72, suffered heavy casualties at the hand on US in the Iraq' invasion but then again even if Iraq fielded M1 Abrams, the result would have been the same as the opposition was extremely strong.

Even with complete ToT and soft loan arrangement between china and pakistan, the later still chose 320 T-80UDs, which might say something about the product evaluation of t80 tanks as credible competition to T72m1 and T90 bhisma tanks.

T72m1 and T90 bhisma's form the backbone of the indian armor, which has put these assets through thorough evaluation and found them satisfactory against pakistani and chinese threats.

As far as Chinese tanks are concerned :
The Type 58 was the first Chinese tank ever built. It was designed from the SovietT-34-85 tank

Type 59 main battle tank is a Chinese produced version of the SovietT-54A tank

NorincoType 62 is a Chinese light tank developed in the early 1960s and is based on the Type 59> T54

NorincoType 63 is a Chinese amphibious light tank was a developed from experience with the earlier Soviet PT-76

The Type 69 and Type 79 are two models of Chinesemain battle tanks. Both developments of theType 59 (based on the Soviet T-54A

The Type 80 is a series of medium second-generation main battle tanks (MBTs) from China. The first Type 80 MBT was based on the older Type 79 MBT hull, but equipped with new Chinese-made wheels/tracks, German-designed 730 hp diesel engine, British-designed dual-axis stabilized fire-control with laser range-finder, and NATO-standard 105 mm gun licensed from Austria

After examining samples of T-72 tanks delivered by Iran in the late 1980s (captured from the Iraqi Army), the Chinese military realized contemporary Chinese tanks were still vulnerable. Design features of the T-72 and some western tanks were used to develop a second generation of Chinese tanks, eventually incorporating a redesigned hull and suspension, a new welded turret and 125 mm autoloaded tank gun. The Type 80 and Type 85 tanks led to the Type 90. The Type 90 was rejected for Chinese service in favour of other designs, but it influenced further development which would lead to China's third-generation Type 98 and Type 99 tanks

So apart from Type 98 and 99, chinese haven't really developed anything on thier own, but still have some how surpassed one of the largest armored vehicle producer in the world.

All that counts is that China's latest Type-99 tank can take on Russia's latest Type-90 tank. China has equalled the Russians in tank technology for some years now.

advise? Well comprehension has been a fading skill these days... but there was f35, EFT rafale, Pakfa, f18sh, and if needed even f15Silent Eagle on offer to india as and when needed not to mention the most advanced Awacs C4I and maritime units. But that seems to cause enormous BH to the anti India rhetoric.

All 2nd Tier 2 stuff.

US only sells equipment to countries it does not feel it is a threat to them. That is why it never sold arms to former Soviet Union and refuses to sell to China now. It is terrified of China's rise.

 

[kalu_miah]

Well how arbitrary. What about Chinese radars or fighter jets or submarines or missiles or EW systems are they all as good as Russia's? Get real.

Nope it's simple logic. You think some reverse engineering and a defence industry that has barley started designing its own tech (that too still based on stolen IP) is going to overtake the world's 2nd greatest designer and producer of arms? China is yet to replace Russian origin engines with Chinese ones in its entire fleet whilst Russia has dozens of designed and in production engines in service and is working on jet engines that are at least a decade ahead of anything the Chiense are currently working on. Who is the one engaging in wishful thinking now then? In many areas China is decades behind Russia and the West in defence tech.


I will admit China has come along way but I'm smart enough to appreciate it has a hell of a long way still to go and you can't just leapfrog tech here you have to put in the time and effort in the R&D which takes years and decades to pay off. China is investing in it now but it won't overtake Russia anytime soon but it WILL happen- of that I have no doubt. Perhaps in 20 years.



You're anti-Indian mentality is blinding you so much it's pathetic to witness.


But let's engage in your hypothetical, if that was to happen then India will just get more and more kit from Europe, Isreal and primarily the US. No one is going to match the US on defence prowess for 50+ years at least. And you are making out that India is 100% dependant on Russia now, this hasn't been true for a decade or so and will increasingly become less true as the years go by.


Additionally India's own defence industry which is coming along leaps and bounds currently will in a few decades (when perhaps Russia's supremacy over China in this field starts to be challenged) will start to come good in a big way. The big advantage India has over China in developing its own defence industry is that the high-tech foreign industry leaders are wanting to and willing to invest in India's defence industry and offer ToT and engage in JVs but China has to do this all alone. This is one major ace India has up its sleeve. Chine has to do it all the hard way- make the mistakes, go through arduous R&D cycles but India will have ready access to mountains of data and can perhaps cut down the timelines to gain parity with China.

Either way by 2045-50 India and China will be the 2 largest economies on the planet and there is no way either of them won't have mature and capable defence industries of their own by then.

For China to catch up to Russia, 20 years is again wishful thinking. The only area where Russia and Ukraine has an edge is jet engines. My personal estimate, in around 7-10 years max China will be able to mass produce engines as good or better than Russians.

India's own defense industry is not in the same league where air superiority fighters are concerned, so lets keep that out of the discussion.

The reason why I bring up this issue is to point out, which you have agreed with, is that India saw early on that their option of utilizing Russian weapons to keep balance with Chinese conventional weapons will no longer remain an option. FGFA will probably be the last major program between India and Russia. And I saw analysis that either Rafale or FGFA may not be adequate to counter a fully developed J-20, which may turn out to be superior to both by the time they enter service around 2020.

What this means is that loosing this Russia option to balance Chinese weapons, India will no longer have the ability to pursue non-alignment and will have to embrace the West, if they want to get the best weapons they have to offer, such as F-35.

For the above reason, I believe in about 5 years India will have no choice but to become a partner of Western security structure and thus become a major non-NATO ally like Japan.

@Chinese-Dragon it would be great to hear your opinion about the above, whether this sounds like a plausible future scenario.

India has always had access to french and British systems ad off late has been offered top tier equipment from US aswell. In your worded hypothetical scenario, IF chinese tech surpasses Russian technology, We will still have access to European and american market. and If there is another hypothetical scenario where India has no access to any technology then we will improvise with whatever we have or be conquered by marauding herds if that would please the discourse...

You may find the above relevant and interesting. There is no marauding herds waiting to assault you, its just that you may be forced to choose sides as a consequence of China's technological advance. No more luxury of non-alignment.