India Fudging GDP to Show Faster Growth Than China's?
- Thread starter RiazHaq
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India’s “new and improved” GDP statistics are asking investors to suspend their disbelief. Revised data suggests that growth zoomed in the year to last March, just as the country tightened fiscal and monetary policies to tame inflation, narrow the current account deficit and prevent a currency crisis. Such a thing has not happened in any major economy in at least three decades.
The new calculations, released on Jan. 30, have moved the measurement of national income closer to international norms. But in doing so, India’s official statisticians have produced a puzzling new version of history: the old numbers put the expansion in output in fiscal 2014 at a pedestrian 4.7 percent. Under the new method, growth that year accelerated to 6.9 percent.
The original number was more realistic, and not just because a second year of sub-5 percent growth played a role in helping opposition leader Narendra Modi become prime minister with a landslide election victory.
In the first quarter of that fiscal year the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at tapering its quantitative easing programme. The rupee collapsed as investors baulked at financing large external deficits in emerging markets. India had to raise interest rates, restrict gold imports and curb budgetary excesses. Though a cheaper currency helped boost exports somewhat, oil prices were still high. The massive fall in imports couldn’t have taken place without domestic demand taking a hit.
By the end of the fiscal year, India’s dependence on foreign capital inflows had dropped by 3 percentage points of GDP. The amended statistics show the same picture. But this lesson in self-reliance now appears to have been puzzlingly painless. The new calculations show growth accelerating by 1.8 percentage points, from a revised 5.1 percent in fiscal 2013.
That conclusion stretches credulity. No large economy has pulled off such a big improvement in its external balance at the same time as such a handsome pickup in output, according to a Breakingviews analysis of 189 nations over 33 years.
Indian officials will most likely have to revise their conclusions. For now, though, investors will miss the old data. For all its faults, it was a more reliable compass. India’s posh new GDP statistics look too good to be true.
India’s “improved” GDP statistics strain credulity
The new calculations, released on Jan. 30, have moved the measurement of national income closer to international norms. But in doing so, India’s official statisticians have produced a puzzling new version of history: the old numbers put the expansion in output in fiscal 2014 at a pedestrian 4.7 percent. Under the new method, growth that year accelerated to 6.9 percent.
The original number was more realistic, and not just because a second year of sub-5 percent growth played a role in helping opposition leader Narendra Modi become prime minister with a landslide election victory.
In the first quarter of that fiscal year the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at tapering its quantitative easing programme. The rupee collapsed as investors baulked at financing large external deficits in emerging markets. India had to raise interest rates, restrict gold imports and curb budgetary excesses. Though a cheaper currency helped boost exports somewhat, oil prices were still high. The massive fall in imports couldn’t have taken place without domestic demand taking a hit.
By the end of the fiscal year, India’s dependence on foreign capital inflows had dropped by 3 percentage points of GDP. The amended statistics show the same picture. But this lesson in self-reliance now appears to have been puzzlingly painless. The new calculations show growth accelerating by 1.8 percentage points, from a revised 5.1 percent in fiscal 2013.
That conclusion stretches credulity. No large economy has pulled off such a big improvement in its external balance at the same time as such a handsome pickup in output, according to a Breakingviews analysis of 189 nations over 33 years.
Indian officials will most likely have to revise their conclusions. For now, though, investors will miss the old data. For all its faults, it was a more reliable compass. India’s posh new GDP statistics look too good to be true.
India’s “improved” GDP statistics strain credulity
RisingShiningSuperpower
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The world is red with envy at India's progress.
All credit goes to Modi-ji and his brilliant leadership.
The truth alone with prevail.
The truth is that India will be a superpower by 2020!
All credit goes to Modi-ji and his brilliant leadership.
The truth alone with prevail.
The truth is that India will be a superpower by 2020!
Fattyacids
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There's a lot of problem with this data. We're not talking a few basis points deviation due to change of accounting standard, but a ridiculous 50% jump!!!!! Even India central bank governor Raghuram Rajan had reservation. His data shows 4-5% range, much in line with IMF and World Bank.
Modi's finance minister inflated GDP growth based on market pricing, but the numbers doesn't add up! Economy size is effectively unchanged, current account deficit remained almost the same. Where did the "extra growth" go to?
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Chinese-Dragon
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There's a lot of problem with this data. We're not talking a few basis points deviation due to change of accounting standard, but a ridiculous 50% jump!!!!! Even India central bank governor Raghuram Rajan had reservation. His data shows 4-5% range, much in line with IMF and World Bank.
Modi's finance minister inflated GDP growth based on market pricing, but the numbers doesn't add up! Economy size is effectively unchanged, current account deficit remained almost the same. Where did the "extra growth" go to?
Exactly. That's why there is no problem at all.
Beidou2020
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50% jump in GDP 'growth' when the world economy is slowing and they expect the rest of the world to believe this nonsense?
Indians are generally a pretty delusional bunch, but this is taking it to a whole new level of delusion.
50% jump???? GTFO
Indians are generally a pretty delusional bunch, but this is taking it to a whole new level of delusion.
50% jump???? GTFO
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Fattyacids
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50% jump in GDP 'growth' when the world economy is slowing and they expect the rest of the world to believe this nonsense?
Indians are generally a pretty delusional bunch, but this taking it to a whole new level of delusion.
50% jump???? GTFO
2013-2014, from 4.7% to 6.9%, a whopping 50% jump
"Last month India revised the previous year’s expansion to 6.9 percent from 4.7 percent, prompting economists including Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan to question the growth surge."
India Says Its Economy Will Grow 7.4%, But Economists Can't Figure Out Why - Bloomberg Business
A Fascist Model of Development
The Myth of India as a Superpower
by IMTIAZ AKHTAR
The verdict of the world press is finally out: India, they say, is no longer a poor, despicable country as depicted by orientalist European cinema and novels but is now a superpower. To strengthen their argument, they show us India’s nuclear arsenal. If this does not suffice, they show us that the wealth of the 100 richest Indians has doubled or trebled. They go on recounting one after another feat to muster their points, including: the 2011 Cricket World Cup victory, India’s moon mission, the cellular industry’s phenomenal growth, the number of Indians who have won prizes in beauty pageants, and the growing popularity of Bollywood cinema in European countries. Things could not get better these days, with everything, from plastic surgery to quantum physics, being “proven” to have been discovered somehow by Indians thousands of years ago, as the whole world slept. The case has been solved beyond the shadow of a reasonable doubt. India is the future. Unsurprisingly, those who cheer for this kind of India are the same westerners who view the non-western world as being their personal fiefdom.
A few months ago, I had the opportunity to attend one of my childhood friend’s marriage ceremony in the Northern part of Bengal’s splendidly dense forest. There, I met one of my former school teachers who suggested, for “my own benefit,” that I join the Nazi-inspired Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He explained that, apart from the fact that I have all relevant degrees, I also have a Muslim name. This led me to withdraw into some deep labyrinthine cave inside me for a while, despite the hustle bustle of the wedding. The conversation provided crucial clues into the minds of India’s superbly corrupt middle class, who have been hypnotized into believing that India could be powerful only through arms, displays of aggression, masochism and a poisonous breed of nationalism. Nitasha Kaul in her essay, Kashmir: A Place of Blood and Memory (In Until My Freedom Has Come: The New Intifada in Kashmir, Edited by Sanjay Kak, Haymarket Books, 2013) has this to say:“The large swathes of Indian middle classes are stuffed with intolerance, unthinking mass entertainment, and over consumption – fed by a corporatised media that ‘manufactures consent’ in a textbook Chomsky way. The mix of ignorance and blustery self-confidence that one encounters in middle-class Indians rivals Americans (they share this ‘superpower’ trait!).”
Average middle class Indians barely read, and when they do, to showhow culturally advanced they are, they do not wander beyond the fictions of Chetan Bhagat or Sidney Sheldon. In cinema, they are die-hard fans of the horrible actor-cum-criminal Salman Khan, and in politics they have recently found out that if there is god on earth, then it is Modi. Their detergents have worked hard to wash off the bloodstains from this man’s clothes. The clamor of middle-class Indians for a life of super abundance is so deeply rooted that, as things stand, more and more they display the unmistakable characteristics of their former colonial masters. The middle class and the rich have become India’s new colonizers. Since colonization of economic resources is impossible without a simultaneous colonization of history and memory, India’s scholars, composed largely of liberal Brahmans, have embarked on an ambitious project to rewrite the history of the poor and dispossessed. In this history of hunter and hunted, the hunters are always glorified: they become the unquestioned mediators of the universe. Their violence is normalized through the cultural apparatus, and any deviation from it is taken as a sign of unmanliness or even disloyalty. Today’s middle class has absorbed all the barbaric elements of the neoliberal world view, according to which, the huts of the poor must be cleared to make way for the shopping malls of the rich. The middle class never tires of repeating the word “development” as it refuses to ponder its meaning and implications.
The Brazilian philosopher Paulo Freire, in his lucid and easy-to-read book, Pedagogy of the Oppressed (1968), comments that “It is not to become free men that they want agrarian reform, but in order to acquire land and thus become land owners–or, more precisely, boss over workers.” This is exactly what has happened in most post-colonial societies. After hundreds of years of struggle and sacrifice, countries in Asia, Africa, Central America and South America were able to turn the tide of colonization. The colonizers left, but they bequeathed to the rest of the world the imperialistic values and cultural praxis that have become so deeply rooted in our societies. Most of the countries that had inherited a proud legacy of anti-imperialist struggle gave up their insistence on egalitarian societies. The newly-emerged ruling class with a history of colonization molded itself in the image of its colonial masters. The brown or black man had consciously or unconsciously internalized the traits of the white man. In the absence of the white man, the brown or black man became one: an object that inspires both fear and awe.
In India, the most violent upheaval started in the early 1990s. Since then, any remnant of a welfare state has been gradually withdrawn. India, for the first time in its independent history, had a Ministry for Disinvestment: a ministry created purely for the purpose of handing over public resources, created out of public funds, to private players. In short, India moved from proto-socialism to aggressive crony capitalism: a point publicly acknowledged even by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
The net result of more than two decades of so-called economic reforms is there for everyone to see. India is on the brink of nuclear war with Pakistan over Kashmir; there is a massive rise of religious fanaticism, and the whole laboring class, which has suffered the most, leads a life of despair. Go and visit any Indian city, and the mere sight will hurt the eye like a sore. These are our cities, where millions live chattel-like existences amidst stunning islands of prosperity. In the same city where a vast majority do not get access to drinking water, you’ll find families who own private jets. Violence against religious and sexual minorities is a daily occurrence. The Indian economy is in good shape, but Indians are forced to live a hand-to-mouth existence. There is a growing sense of disillusionment among most Indians, and it is largely to counter this disappointment that right-wing political outfits today fan nationalism and the threats of terrorism and immigrants. We collectively spend less to buy pencils for our children than to purchase arms. One could accurately say that middle-class Indians suffer deeply from an inferiority complex. It is to overcome this complex that they need to chant the mantras of superpower: its celebration, its symbolism, its dominant cultural values, its cinema, its novels, its songs, all of which affirm that deep down even they know that these are just a smoke-screen, a phantasy, a simulacrum created to calm their growing sense of unease. If reality cannot be altered, then it can at the least be forgotten, ignored or misrepresented through art.
Three days after the marriage was over, I met my teacher once again. I had arrived at my boarding school. In jails, military barracks and boarding schools, life is immune to change. It has its own sense of timelessness. Instead of myself, I found that young boys who resemble me deeply were, as usual, involved in the rituals of the boarding school. Once again my school teacher and I had an extended and quarrelsome discussion over almost everything: from India’s foreign policy to Leo Tolstoy’s aversion to the church. One of those evenings, my teacher disclosed to me his deep-rooted desire to die. He looked into my eyes and said in a most melancholic tone, “I wish I could die quickly.” I was caught here. I tried hard not to look into his teary eyes. Here was a man who had taught me so much; I had learned from him that learning is the result of life-long and back breaking hard work. But men change. Time alters everything: from the blade of grass to diamond-hard convictions. If today, more and more middle class Indians get drunk and desire their death, the reasons are not hard to fathom.
Indians like my teacher champion a fascist model of development that exerts a disturbing influence on the inner self. The neoliberal world view builds up misery and guilt in those who theorize it or support it. It alienates the individual, firstly from his inner self and secondly from his fellow beings. These theories conveniently forget that there is a limit on natural resources. Forlorn and wasted, where else will such men seek their redemption if not in their own death. Fascism and its first cousin neoliberalism are harbingers of death and destruction. If Indians do not heed history, India could end up meeting the same fate as Japan, which learned a lesson on humanity and sobriety after a barbaric nuclear war. In 1998, when India blasted its first successful nuclear bombs, the men in uniform ironically used the code phrase “Buddha is smiling” to indicate to their masters that the tests were successful. The way our internal crisis is brewing, the way India is conducting its business with Pakistan, soon Buddha might be laughing at us.
The Myth of India as a Superpower » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names
The Myth of India as a Superpower
by IMTIAZ AKHTAR
The verdict of the world press is finally out: India, they say, is no longer a poor, despicable country as depicted by orientalist European cinema and novels but is now a superpower. To strengthen their argument, they show us India’s nuclear arsenal. If this does not suffice, they show us that the wealth of the 100 richest Indians has doubled or trebled. They go on recounting one after another feat to muster their points, including: the 2011 Cricket World Cup victory, India’s moon mission, the cellular industry’s phenomenal growth, the number of Indians who have won prizes in beauty pageants, and the growing popularity of Bollywood cinema in European countries. Things could not get better these days, with everything, from plastic surgery to quantum physics, being “proven” to have been discovered somehow by Indians thousands of years ago, as the whole world slept. The case has been solved beyond the shadow of a reasonable doubt. India is the future. Unsurprisingly, those who cheer for this kind of India are the same westerners who view the non-western world as being their personal fiefdom.
A few months ago, I had the opportunity to attend one of my childhood friend’s marriage ceremony in the Northern part of Bengal’s splendidly dense forest. There, I met one of my former school teachers who suggested, for “my own benefit,” that I join the Nazi-inspired Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He explained that, apart from the fact that I have all relevant degrees, I also have a Muslim name. This led me to withdraw into some deep labyrinthine cave inside me for a while, despite the hustle bustle of the wedding. The conversation provided crucial clues into the minds of India’s superbly corrupt middle class, who have been hypnotized into believing that India could be powerful only through arms, displays of aggression, masochism and a poisonous breed of nationalism. Nitasha Kaul in her essay, Kashmir: A Place of Blood and Memory (In Until My Freedom Has Come: The New Intifada in Kashmir, Edited by Sanjay Kak, Haymarket Books, 2013) has this to say:“The large swathes of Indian middle classes are stuffed with intolerance, unthinking mass entertainment, and over consumption – fed by a corporatised media that ‘manufactures consent’ in a textbook Chomsky way. The mix of ignorance and blustery self-confidence that one encounters in middle-class Indians rivals Americans (they share this ‘superpower’ trait!).”
Average middle class Indians barely read, and when they do, to showhow culturally advanced they are, they do not wander beyond the fictions of Chetan Bhagat or Sidney Sheldon. In cinema, they are die-hard fans of the horrible actor-cum-criminal Salman Khan, and in politics they have recently found out that if there is god on earth, then it is Modi. Their detergents have worked hard to wash off the bloodstains from this man’s clothes. The clamor of middle-class Indians for a life of super abundance is so deeply rooted that, as things stand, more and more they display the unmistakable characteristics of their former colonial masters. The middle class and the rich have become India’s new colonizers. Since colonization of economic resources is impossible without a simultaneous colonization of history and memory, India’s scholars, composed largely of liberal Brahmans, have embarked on an ambitious project to rewrite the history of the poor and dispossessed. In this history of hunter and hunted, the hunters are always glorified: they become the unquestioned mediators of the universe. Their violence is normalized through the cultural apparatus, and any deviation from it is taken as a sign of unmanliness or even disloyalty. Today’s middle class has absorbed all the barbaric elements of the neoliberal world view, according to which, the huts of the poor must be cleared to make way for the shopping malls of the rich. The middle class never tires of repeating the word “development” as it refuses to ponder its meaning and implications.
The Brazilian philosopher Paulo Freire, in his lucid and easy-to-read book, Pedagogy of the Oppressed (1968), comments that “It is not to become free men that they want agrarian reform, but in order to acquire land and thus become land owners–or, more precisely, boss over workers.” This is exactly what has happened in most post-colonial societies. After hundreds of years of struggle and sacrifice, countries in Asia, Africa, Central America and South America were able to turn the tide of colonization. The colonizers left, but they bequeathed to the rest of the world the imperialistic values and cultural praxis that have become so deeply rooted in our societies. Most of the countries that had inherited a proud legacy of anti-imperialist struggle gave up their insistence on egalitarian societies. The newly-emerged ruling class with a history of colonization molded itself in the image of its colonial masters. The brown or black man had consciously or unconsciously internalized the traits of the white man. In the absence of the white man, the brown or black man became one: an object that inspires both fear and awe.
In India, the most violent upheaval started in the early 1990s. Since then, any remnant of a welfare state has been gradually withdrawn. India, for the first time in its independent history, had a Ministry for Disinvestment: a ministry created purely for the purpose of handing over public resources, created out of public funds, to private players. In short, India moved from proto-socialism to aggressive crony capitalism: a point publicly acknowledged even by former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
The net result of more than two decades of so-called economic reforms is there for everyone to see. India is on the brink of nuclear war with Pakistan over Kashmir; there is a massive rise of religious fanaticism, and the whole laboring class, which has suffered the most, leads a life of despair. Go and visit any Indian city, and the mere sight will hurt the eye like a sore. These are our cities, where millions live chattel-like existences amidst stunning islands of prosperity. In the same city where a vast majority do not get access to drinking water, you’ll find families who own private jets. Violence against religious and sexual minorities is a daily occurrence. The Indian economy is in good shape, but Indians are forced to live a hand-to-mouth existence. There is a growing sense of disillusionment among most Indians, and it is largely to counter this disappointment that right-wing political outfits today fan nationalism and the threats of terrorism and immigrants. We collectively spend less to buy pencils for our children than to purchase arms. One could accurately say that middle-class Indians suffer deeply from an inferiority complex. It is to overcome this complex that they need to chant the mantras of superpower: its celebration, its symbolism, its dominant cultural values, its cinema, its novels, its songs, all of which affirm that deep down even they know that these are just a smoke-screen, a phantasy, a simulacrum created to calm their growing sense of unease. If reality cannot be altered, then it can at the least be forgotten, ignored or misrepresented through art.
Three days after the marriage was over, I met my teacher once again. I had arrived at my boarding school. In jails, military barracks and boarding schools, life is immune to change. It has its own sense of timelessness. Instead of myself, I found that young boys who resemble me deeply were, as usual, involved in the rituals of the boarding school. Once again my school teacher and I had an extended and quarrelsome discussion over almost everything: from India’s foreign policy to Leo Tolstoy’s aversion to the church. One of those evenings, my teacher disclosed to me his deep-rooted desire to die. He looked into my eyes and said in a most melancholic tone, “I wish I could die quickly.” I was caught here. I tried hard not to look into his teary eyes. Here was a man who had taught me so much; I had learned from him that learning is the result of life-long and back breaking hard work. But men change. Time alters everything: from the blade of grass to diamond-hard convictions. If today, more and more middle class Indians get drunk and desire their death, the reasons are not hard to fathom.
Indians like my teacher champion a fascist model of development that exerts a disturbing influence on the inner self. The neoliberal world view builds up misery and guilt in those who theorize it or support it. It alienates the individual, firstly from his inner self and secondly from his fellow beings. These theories conveniently forget that there is a limit on natural resources. Forlorn and wasted, where else will such men seek their redemption if not in their own death. Fascism and its first cousin neoliberalism are harbingers of death and destruction. If Indians do not heed history, India could end up meeting the same fate as Japan, which learned a lesson on humanity and sobriety after a barbaric nuclear war. In 1998, when India blasted its first successful nuclear bombs, the men in uniform ironically used the code phrase “Buddha is smiling” to indicate to their masters that the tests were successful. The way our internal crisis is brewing, the way India is conducting its business with Pakistan, soon Buddha might be laughing at us.
The Myth of India as a Superpower » CounterPunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names
Donatello
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Just by changing the base year you don't get a higher rate of growth. Anyone can do that if it was that simple. We will have to wait for full year fiscal growth from external sources, like Moody's, WorldBank, IMF etc......to take the date at face value.
definitelynotIndian
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Yes brother super power by 2020. World will be red with envy
RanvirSena
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SelfServeFive
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I believe in Modi-ji. India will revise its GDP figures as many times as necessary to catch up to China. Jai Hind!
IND151
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And then members like OP talk about India's China obession.
Haq's Musings: India Fudging GDP to Show Faster Growth Than China?
Indian government now claims that the country's GDP grew by 6.9% in 2013-14, well above the 4.7% growth the country had announced earlier.
Based on the latest methodology, it is claimed that the Indian economy expanded 7.5 percent year-on-year during the last quarter, higher than 7.3 percent growth recorded by China in the latest quarter, making it the fastest growing major economy in the world, according to Reuters. Is it wishful thinking to make Indian economy look better than China's?
India GDP Revisions. Source: Financial Times
The GDP revisions have surprised most of the nation's economists and raised serious questions about the credibility of government figures released after rebasing the GDP calculations to year 2011-12 from 2004-5. So what is wrong with these figures? Let's try and answer the following questions:
1. How is it possible that the accelerated GDP growth in 2013-14 occurred while the Indian central bankers were significantly jacking up interest rates by several percentage points and cutting money supply in the Indian economy?
2. Why are the revisions at odds with other important indicators such as lower industrial production and trade and tax collection figures? For the previous fiscal year, the government’s index of industrial production showed manufacturing activity slowing by 0.8%. Exports in December shrank 3.8% in dollar terms from a year earlier.
3. How can growth accelerate amid financial constraints depressing investment in India? Indian companies are burdened with debt and banks are reluctant to lend.
4. Why has the total GDP for 2013-14 shrunk by about Rs. 100 billion in spite of upward revision in economic growth rate? Why is India's GDP at $1.8 trillion, well short of theoft-repeated $2 trillion mark?
Questions about the veracity of India's official GDP figures are not new. These have been raised by many top economists. For example, French economist Thomas Piketty argues in his best seller "Capital in the Twenty-First Century that the GDP growth rates of India and China are exaggerated. Picketty writes as follows:
"Note, too, that the very high official growth figures for developing countries (especially India and China) over the past few decades are based almost exclusively on production statistics. If one tries to measure income growth by using household survey data, it is often quite difficult to identify the reported rates of macroeconomic growth: Indian and Chinese incomes are certainly increasing rapidly, but not as rapidly as one would infer from official growth statistics. This paradox-sometimes referred to as the "black hole" of growth-is obviously problematic. It may be due to the overestimation of the growth of output (there are many bureaucratic incentives for doing so), or perhaps the underestimation of income growth (household have their own flaws)), or most likely both. In particular, the missing income may be explained by the possibility that a disproportionate share of the growth in output has gone to the most highly remunerated individuals, whose incomes are not always captured in the tax data." "In the case of India, it is possible to estimate (using tax return data) that the increase in the upper centile's share of national income explains between one-quarter and one-third of the "black hole" of growth between 1990 and 2000. "
Related Links:
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India-Pakistan Economic Comparison 2014
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State Bank Says Pakistan's Official GDP Under-estimated
Pakistan's Growing Middle Class
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Haq's Musings: India Fudging GDP to Show Faster Growth Than China?
While China is doing its level best to under-report the country‘s GDP，India is doing the exact opposite。
Very telling。
And then members like OP talk about India's China obession.
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