India edges toward crisis

[joekrish]

"heavily invested" is an overstatement if I ever saw one

It will hurt you in any case.

 

[East Asia United]

Could you please provide a basis of your assertion on contraction please.

here is my source IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Growing Pains, July 2013

and it quotes 5.6% growth and it IS FROM IMF SITE!

Still want to debate? or shall we call it a day with you taking back your baseless claims?

LOOL! You are looking at the real GDP growth figure you doofus. So much for you knowing what you are talking about!

Factor in the Rupee depreciation and what do you get??? Go on and tell me.

 

[mastaan]

LOOL! You are looking at the real GDP growth figure you doofus. So much for you knowing what you are talking about!

Factor in the Rupee depreciation and what do you get??? Go on and tell me.

You want to look at a single spike in dollar-rupee fluctuation to estimate the GDP of for a Trillion plus economy, with absolute disregard for how whimsical a spike is, how much of the GDP produce is for internal consumption (and thus dollar shifts won't effect it) and the additional revenues because of potentially higher exports... And has 300Bn in its reserves! You are calling names, giving no source and making random claims... I am not gonna waste my time teaching economics, if you can not put in a SINGLE credible source (I gave you link of a 9th July report of IMF, that you initially claimed was talking about degrowth)!

On an additional afterthought... the world measures a three letter word called as PPP of GDP estimates for SOME reason, not just to make it sound jazzy...!

 

[East Asia United]

You want to look at a single spike in dollar-rupee fluctuation to estimate the GDP of for a Trillion plus economy, with absolute disregard for how whimsical a spike is, how much of the GDP produce is for internal consumption (and thus dollar shifts won't effect it) and the additional revenues because of potentially higher exports... And has 300Bn in its reserves! You are calling names, giving no source and making random claims... I am not gonna waste my time teaching economics, if you can not put in a SINGLE credible source (I gave you link of a 9th July report of IMF, that you initially claimed was talking about degrowth)!

On an additional afterthought... the world measures a three letter word called as PPP of GDP estimates for SOME reason, not just to make it sound jazzy...!

I am looking for the link.

More importantly, it's in nominal terms for 2013, so what does GDP PPP have to do with anything? What a horrible way to measure the GDP of a nation. It's only good for measuring per capita.

The Rupee has fallen 15% YTD. Coupled with the lackluster growth (probably under 5% for this year), what do you honestly think that the 2013 GDP will be?

 

[ChinaToday]

nevermind india can still overtake china in 2100

 

[mastaan]

I am looking for the link.

More importantly, it's in nominal terms for 2013, so what does GDP PPP have to do with anything? What a horrible way to measure the GDP of a nation. It's only good for measuring per capita.

The Rupee has fallen 15% YTD. Coupled with the lackluster growth (probably under 5% for this year), what do you honestly think that the 2013 GDP will be?

Look, you can continue to do your voodoo maths... Please, suit yourself.... I genuinely wanted to debate, but you are so stuck up on devaluation of rupee that you don't wanna talk about exports jump potential, the lowering imports due to economy slowing down... there are ten thousand ways to argue this, but a 15% devaluation of currency to predict a degrowth/contraction of a trillion dollar economy is oversimplification... But, I am sure, you find satisfaction in your logic! therefore, please suit yourself!

nevermind india can still overtake china in 2100

CT, that can't happen.. Different economic models, different aspirations and goals... but, thanks for the sarcasm!

 

[East Asia United]

Look, you can continue to do your voodoo maths... Please, suit yourself.... I genuinely wanted to debate, but you are so stuck up on devaluation of rupee that you don't wanna talk about exports jump potential, the lowering imports due to economy slowing down... there are ten thousand ways to argue this, but a 15% devaluation of currency to predict a degrowth/contraction of a trillion dollar economy is oversimplification... But, I am sure, you find satisfaction in your logic! therefore, please suit yourself!

Now you are trolling.

I presented facts, and you respond with obfuscation.

Why does a 15% de-evaluation of a currency in ONE year not merit a serious discussion on the ill financial health of the country? The fact that you don't take this seriously makes you the one doing the voodoo math, or else how do you overcome the facts and still present a rosy picture?

 

[mastaan]

Now you are trolling.

I presented facts, and you respond with obfuscation.

Why does a 15% de-evaluation of a currency in ONE year not merit a serious discussion on the ill financial health of the country? The fact that you don't take this seriously makes you the one doing the voodoo math, or else how do you overcome the facts and still present a rosy picture?

1. I did not present a rosy picture... Please read my comments... My only objection was the theory about degrowth
2. The degrowth story still does not hold true and you owe me a link for that... I atleast put my theory with a 40 day old IMF projection

You still think, I am obfuscating, even after presenting an IMF link (that you originally claimed, was supporting your assertion), then I politely rest my case! I can not contest arguments with no clear logic...

 

[East Asia United]

1. I did not present a rosy picture... Please read my comments... My only objection was the theory about degrowth
2. The degrowth story still does not hold true and you owe me a link for that... I atleast put my theory with a 40 day old IMF projection

You still think, I am obfuscating, even after presenting an IMF link (that you originally claimed, was supporting your assertion), then I politely rest my case! I can not contest arguments with no clear logic...

Ok, what happens when a country grows by 5%, but loses 15% due to currency depreciation?

 

[mastaan]

Ok, what happens when a country grows by 5%, but loses 15% due to currency depreciation?

Think clear and you will get the answer... if the 100% GDP is in US dollars, then the economy arguably degrows... But, in todays world, economies are multi currency, multi consumption patterns based...! India has a current account defecit problem, no one can deny that. But to day that we are completely dependent on USD is an oversimplification of how an economy like India works....

 

[East Asia United]

Think clear and you will get the answer... if the 100% GDP is in US dollars, then the economy arguably degrows... But, in todays world, economies are multi currency, multi consumption patterns based...! India has a current account defecit problem, no one can deny that. But to day that we are completely dependent on USD is an oversimplification of how an economy like India works....

What do we calculate nominal GDP's in? What currency is used to compare across nations in the UN, IMF, World Bank, and other reports?

 

[mastaan]

What do we calculate nominal GDP's in? What currency is used to compare across nations in the UN, IMF, World Bank, and other reports?

Then why is IMF showing 5.3% growth? Currency did not de-value only AFTER their report. Think!

GDP is a function of multiple variables of output coming together... just a USD re-valuation also dilutes the value of invest FDI, it also increases the value of Indian investments abroad, it also increases remittances (India's biggest foreign exchange contributors)... But FOREX is ONLY a barometer of India's 25% export that it does as a part of its GDP. The remaining 75% is not revalued, as production, consumption is in USD... How I wish, i could write you a Tome on this...!

My humble submission again is, please do not judge any nation only as a value of its Current Account deficit or FOREX rates... GDPs, are slightly more complicated than that... and I would again, FINALLY, sum up by saying, degrowth/shrinkage, is out of question, just because of QE curbs, CAB deficits or stupid statements made by Finance Ministry... This economy isn't that weak

 

[East Asia United]

Then why is IMF showing 5.3% growth? Currency did not de-value only AFTER their report. Think!

GDP is a function of multiple variables of output coming together... just a USD re-valuation also dilutes the value of invest FDI, it also increases the value of Indian investments abroad, it also increases remittances (India's biggest foreign exchange contributors)... But FOREX is ONLY a barometer of India's 25% export that it does as a part of its GDP. The remaining 75% is not revalued, as production, consumption is in USD... How I wish, i could write you a Tome on this...!

My humble submission again is, please do not judge any nation only as a value of its Current Account deficit or FOREX rates... GDPs, are slightly more complicated than that... and I would again, FINALLY, sum up by saying, degrowth/shrinkage, is out of question, just because of QE curbs, CAB deficits or stupid statements made by Finance Ministry... This economy isn't that weak

That's the REAL GDP growth, not accounting for currency appreciation/depreciation and inflation.

What happens when you account for the currency depreciation??

Take the example of Indian GDP in 2009 and 2010. It had increased by only $4 billion!! That is, total growth of 0.3%.

Now tell me, was that the Indian GDP growth rate for 2010?? Was it 0.3%?

 

[mastaan]

That's the REAL GDP growth, not accounting for currency appreciation/depreciation and inflation.

What happens when you account for the currency depreciation??

Take the example of Indian GDP in 2009 and 2010. It had increased by only $4 billion!! That is, total growth of 0.3%.

Now tell me, was that the Indian GDP growth rate for 2010?? Was it 0.3%?

I guess, we are not able to communicate in a colloquial way! G'nite!